#美国“无王”抗议 Over the weekend, I was scrolling through Twitter and came across a shocking scene —
More than 1,400 locations across the U.S. erupted in protests simultaneously, with the flags saying "No Kings".
Not a particular city, not a particular state, but 1,400 locations at once.
My first reaction wasn’t to check the news, but to look at BTC's 4-hour candlestick chart.
I found that Bitcoin hardly moved over the weekend, still hovering around 66,000.
What does this indicate? The market has temporarily chosen to "wait and see" instead of "run away".
But I don’t think this is stable.
Historically, every time there has been a significant political rift in the U.S., the first reaction of capital has been to flee to safe-haven assets — gold, U.S. treasuries, Swiss francs. Cryptocurrencies have been vying for the title of "digital gold" in recent years, but whenever a true black swan event occurs, it is never clear whether they are a safe-haven asset or a risk asset; the market's answer has never been unified.
In the early days of the 2020 pandemic, Bitcoin was halved alongside U.S. stocks.
In 2022, during the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Bitcoin fell and then rose, ultimately outperforming gold.
What about this time?
My judgment is: if the protests remain on the streets and do not evolve into a constitutional crisis or a drastic shift in financial policy, the crypto market will at most experience fluctuations and will not collapse.
But there is one variable I’m keeping a close eye on — the Federal Reserve.
Once political turmoil translates into fiscal policy, if Trump starts large-scale monetary easing to stabilize the situation, then once liquidity loosens, the crypto market will be the first to benefit.
Conversely, if the turmoil escalates to affect institutional confidence, and ETF funds continue to flow out, then the 60,000 mark will indeed become dangerous.
In conclusion:
Political chaos does not necessarily spell disaster for crypto; sometimes it is the best opportunity to prove its narrative of "no kings to govern".
It all depends on whether Bitcoin can hold up this story.
Do you think this wave of protests will substantially impact the crypto market?
$BTC