The possibility of war between China and Japan is increasing, but ending it will be too difficult. If it really comes to blows, the Chinese side is estimated not to retreat even a step, and will definitely fight to the end, with no room for negotiation.
On March 24th, Tokyo had two troubling incidents that clearly displayed hostility towards China. In the morning, an active-duty officer of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force astonishingly scaled the wall and broke into the Chinese embassy in Japan with an 18-centimeter-long knife, even threatening to kill diplomatic personnel. This is too bold.
It may be hard for some to believe, but this guy later made excuses, claiming he wanted to talk to the Chinese ambassador. Who would carry a long knife and climb over a wall to talk to an ambassador? It's clearly a deliberate provocation, to put it bluntly, he shows no regard for the rules and does not take our bottom line seriously.
What’s even more absurd is that on the same afternoon, Japan released news indicating it would downgrade the positioning of China-Japan relations, changing from “one of the most important bilateral relations” to “important neighbors.” It seems like just a change of phrasing, but in reality, it is an intentional distancing and escalation of confrontation, with intentions laid bare.
These two incidents are not coincidental but rather signals from Japan deliberately testing the Chinese bottom line and escalating confrontation against China.
Recently, the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force has been frequently active in the southwest direction, not only deploying several coastal missile units in Kyushu and Okinawa but also planning to replace missiles that originally had a range of only 200 kilometers with upgraded versions with ranges of up to 1000 kilometers. To put it plainly, they want to have long-range strike capabilities, extending their firepower coverage to the Chinese coast, and their ambitions are obvious.
These missile units are also implementing layered deployments, with some guarding key waterways, some building defensive walls, and some providing mobile support. They are even studying tactics for coordinated operations with rocket artillery and air-based platforms, clearly having planned how to confront China head-on.
But Japan has forgotten that today’s China is no longer the soft target that could be manipulated decades ago. The Chinese response has never been limited to verbal condemnation but has been a solid show of strength. Just the day after Japan announced the downgrade of China-Japan relations, the People’s Liberation Army dispatched multiple aircraft to traverse the Miyako Strait for regular patrols and conducted live-fire exercises in the East China Sea, with missiles accurately hitting maritime targets, sending a clear message to Japan: your provocations can be met, and we can hit back.
Moreover, the Chinese side's hard response has never been blind impulse but is supported by sufficient confidence—whether it’s the regular deployment of aircraft carrier formations or the batch commissioning of stealth fighters and hypersonic missiles, it is enough to deal with any military provocation from Japan. Even if Japan has the backing of the United States, the Chinese side will not retreat an inch.
Many people say that ending a war between China and Japan is too difficult; this is certainly true, but the difficulty has never been on China’s side, but rather Japan’s.
Japan is simultaneously clinging to the United States, continuously strengthening military deployments and provoking the Chinese bottom line, while also relying on the Chinese market and maintaining economic stability through trade with China. This contradictory behavior itself ensures that once war breaks out, it will inevitably find itself in a dilemma.
Once it truly comes to blows, the Chinese side will surely cut off Japan’s maritime lifeline at the first opportunity, attacking its military bases and missile deployment points, causing Japan’s economy to instantly collapse. Those businesses that rely on exports to China for survival will go bankrupt, and ordinary people's lives will be severely impacted, a cost that Japan can hardly bear.
What’s even more laughable is that Japan naively believes that with the U.S. backing, it can provocatively challenge China without restraint. However, deep down, Japan knows what the U.S. is calculating but is unwilling to admit it.
The U.S. only sees Japan as a pawn to contain China and will not genuinely go to war with China on Japan's behalf. Once a conflict between China and Japan escalates, the most the U.S. will do is provide Japan with some weapons and intelligence support; it will never directly intervene with troops. After all, the U.S. knows that war with China will only lead to mutual destruction, a loss that is not worth it.
At that time, Japan will find itself isolated, facing the strong counterattacks from China while also enduring the pressure of economic collapse. The so-called ending will only be self-inflicted consequences.
The Chinese side has never wanted to go to war; after all, peaceful development is the mainstream. But that does not mean the Chinese side will tolerate Japan's repeated provocations. Whether it’s the Diaoyu Islands issue or Japan’s military expansion, these are the Chinese bottom lines. Once Japan crosses the red line, the Chinese side will definitely respond hard, with no room for negotiation.
We will never forget the history of Japan’s invasion of China; that humiliating period constantly reminds us that only through a strong counterattack can we defend our country's sovereignty and dignity, and prevent history from repeating itself. Today's China has enough strength and confidence to respond to any external provocation, even if it means going to war, even if it incurs certain costs, it will never allow Japan to step over the line again.
Moreover, once China and Japan go to war, the impact will not only be on the two countries; the entire East Asia region's situation will fall into turmoil. Surrounding countries will be drawn in, and the global economy will also suffer a severe blow, which is why it is said that ending it will be too difficult.
But even so, the Chinese side will not back down because of fear of difficulty. In the face of sovereignty and dignity, there is no room for compromise. What Japan is doing now is gradually pushing itself towards the abyss of war. If it continues to be stubborn and provoke the Chinese bottom line, it will eventually bring disaster upon itself.
The Chinese side's hard response is not about being warlike but about defending peace, stopping Japan's reckless behavior, and preventing the regional situation from falling into greater turmoil.
Ultimately, the possibility of war between China and Japan completely depends on Japan's attitude. If Japan can wake up in time, stop its provocations, and return to the path of peaceful coexistence, there is still room for redemption; if it continues down the dark path, escalating confrontation, then war is only a matter of time. Once war breaks out, the Chinese side will definitely not retreat an inch and will fight to the end, and Japan will ultimately pay a painful price for its provocations.