谷海木兰A

Tomorrow the A-shares will open, and tonight 250 million investors are losing sleep over the rise and fall of tomorrow's A-shares! On Friday evening, the three major U.S. stock indices plunged sharply, with oil prices soaring more than 7%, and the fear index futures rising over 7%. How will the A-shares perform tomorrow? How should we retail investors respond? Tonight's content is crucial, so let me share it with you in three minutes!
On Friday evening, the three major U.S. stock indices plunged again, setting new lows for the adjustment, with the Nasdaq index dropping over 2%, the S&P 500 down 1.67%, and the Dow Jones index falling 1.73%. The reasons behind this plunge are well-known; there's no need to delve deeper into it. They are insiders, and it is only natural for the indices to continue to drop!
At the same time, oil prices surged over 7%, and the fear index futures also rose more than 7%. Our FTSE China A50 futures index dropped 0.9%, which will inevitably put pressure on the opening of tomorrow's A-shares. However, gold rebounded by 2.59%, and silver rose by 2.7%, indicating that precious metals and minor metals sectors will have positive feedback trends tomorrow.
From the weekend news, there are both good and bad aspects. Regardless of whether the external news is good or bad, we have now entered the fifth week. For us outsiders in the stock market, the influence will gradually diminish. Tomorrow, the A-shares are expected to open lower. As for how much lower? By observing the decline of the Japan and South Korea stock markets at 8 AM tomorrow in the Asia-Pacific region, we can roughly gauge whether the A-shares will open down by 0.9% or 0.5%. However, the most likely impact will be within the first half hour of trading or the morning session!
The plunge in the external stock markets is just an external factor affecting our A-shares. The actual rise and fall ultimately depend on internal factors. In fact, this week the A-shares have already formed three days of gains and two days of losses, showing a rebound after hitting a weekly low, with a minimum of 3794 and a closing rebound to 3913. It can be said that the 3800-point level is more opportunity than risk, and this has not changed up to now! Among them, the strongest remains the Growth Enterprise Market Index, which has returned to the vicinity of the 5-day moving average this week after a rebound.
From a technical perspective, the A-shares' pullback to 3080 is a key support level for the quarterly line, as well as the white line support for the monthly EXP trend line and the yellow line support for the weekly EXP trend line. The daily level has returned to the vicinity of previous lows. Simultaneously, from 4197, there has been a 15-trading-day adjustment of 400 points. The 3800-point level is also a dense trading zone since last August. Therefore, 3800 points is an important key support level. If the adjustment after the Qingming Festival last year were to initiate a full-year rebound, then currently, any pullback near 3800 points represents an opportunity greater than risk for the mid-year upward trend!
From the market characteristics, recently, sectors that have been continuously adjusted and oversold, such as pharmaceuticals, ground weapons, food processing, biological products, etc., have all shown signs of a rebound. At the same time, over the past month, the three major sectors that have been significantly selling off are securities, semiconductors, and insurance. Among them, the semiconductor sector has already formed a double-bottom pattern this week, securities rebounded with reduced volume on Friday, and the insurance sector has very limited adjustment space, ready for a rebound. This indicates that previously oversold sectors have rebounded, and the continuously declining heavyweight sectors have also basically adjusted in place. Previously underperforming sectors, such as precious metals and industrial metals, have also rebounded. Therefore, those who were still reducing positions on Friday and this week, I really don't understand whether these people have an investment system or are just used to cutting losses without having ever made a profit.
Meanwhile, although the main index has continuously adjusted by 400 points over the past four weeks, and many sectors have incurred losses during this adjustment, it must also be said that there has still been some profitable effect in the recent five-week market. Among them, it is clear to see that there are sectors with continuous gains. Those who are truly skilled and can identify the main lines of the A-share market have basically been enjoying the “hot pot while singing” in the electric power sector every day during these five weeks. The fluctuations of the main index have had little correlation with the electric power sector. Therefore, we cannot only focus on the main index and complain; it is useless. We must adapt to the market, strive to improve our capabilities, and grasp the main opportunities in market trends. The electric power sector in the last five weeks is the best evidence. Fortunately, I and all my friends in the electric power sector have been enjoying the benefits during these five weeks!
So next, which sectors will lead the index to stabilize and rebound first? The battery sector announced performance increases three weeks ago, resulting in a reversal and upward trend. The battery sector is the largest weight in the Growth Enterprise Market, and this week it has seen the highest capital inflow, continuing to increase in volume on Friday and maintaining an upward trend without change. The battery sector will continue to hold its position in the auxiliary trend! Meanwhile, due to the rise in oil prices, global supplies of oil and diesel are tight, and the supply of diesel from mines in Australia is also tightening, bringing new disturbances to the lithium mine fundamentals. Lithium carbonate prices continue to break through 180,000 yuan, and the end of AI computing power is electricity, which adds fuel to the demand for energy storage. Thus, it once again brings a dual drive of supply and demand for upstream energy metals and lithium, with continuous capital inflows. Therefore, the battery sector along with its upstream energy metals and lithium is expected to continue its trend of rising prices, and tomorrow's low opening actually provides a good opportunity for buying on dips rather than chasing highs!
In summary, this weekend, 250 million investors are worrying about the rise and fall of tomorrow's A-shares due to the major drop in the external market and the surge in oil prices. This shows an excessive concern for external factors while neglecting internal factors. After a series of continuous declines, the A-shares have experienced a decline adjustment of 400 points over four weeks. The 3800-point level is a good opportunity to buy cheaply. This round of downward movement is reminiscent of last year's Qingming Festival decline. Therefore, continuing to open low should not cause panic; a little more patience and confidence are needed to wait for the rebound! Just as pessimists have been lamenting every day about the falling sectors, optimistic individuals have been enjoying their time in the electric power sector over the past five weeks, while the index can continue to hold out through these difficult days. The dawn will be beautiful after the dark nights!

A-shares Weekend Highlights: 8 Major Updates Summarized + Overview of Next Week's Sector Main Lines
Even though the A-share market is currently closed, several key messages have emerged over the weekend, and the rotation of sectors and hot spots for next week are already becoming clear.
1. Weekend Core Hotspot Summary
1. Nuclear Medicine: China's Spallation Neutron Source has achieved medical-grade alpha isotope curie-level mass production for the first time, marking an important technological breakthrough.
2. Aerospace Engines: CCTV Military has made its first public announcement, stating that by December 10, 2025, China's 60 kW hybrid electric propulsion system will complete flight tests and joint debugging, enabling "electric flight and fuel power generation."
3. Aluminum Industry: EGA, the largest aluminum company in the Middle East, has suffered attacks from Iranian missiles and drones, causing severe damage to production facilities.
4. Geopolitical Situation: Reports indicate that the U.S. Department of Defense is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, with subsequent statements from the U.S. indicating no intention to remain in Iran and plans to withdraw as soon as possible.
5. Live Pig Market: National pig prices have fallen below 5 yuan, hitting a historic low.
6. International Public Opinion: Over 3,000 anti-war demonstrations erupted in the U.S. in a single day.
7. Tech Hardware: DDR5 memory prices have been reduced, with industry experts predicting that prices will continue to decline in the future.
2. Next Week's A-share Sector Layout Ideas
1. Brokerages and other Financial Sectors: It is anticipated that there will likely be protective actions next week, especially when the market experiences a dramatic rebound, with a focus on Tuesday's performance.
2. Oil and Gas Sector: The trends are highly dependent on geopolitical news from the Middle East, with considerable uncertainty, requiring cautious tracking.
3. Gold and Non-ferrous Metals Sectors: Optimism about the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts, with long-term logic looking positive and short-term adjustments nearing the bottom.
4. Previously Active Directions: Sectors like electricity, lithium batteries, and chemicals are expected to recover in sync during the market rebound phase.
5. Weekend Positive Main Lines: Nuclear medicine, commercial aerospace, computing power, aluminum, and other themes are expected to strengthen as the market warms up next week.

In the past couple of days, there has been a news story that really makes one feel anxious.
The two large cargo ships under China COSCO Shipping, the "COSCO Northern Arctic" and the "COSCO Indian Ocean", were originally heading boldly towards the Strait of Hormuz, but just as they were about to arrive, they suddenly made a big turn and headed back to the Persian Gulf.
Meanwhile, neighboring Thailand, Pakistan, and Malaysia were holding a press conference, smiling and saying, "We have reached an agreement with Iran, our ships can pass."
In contrast, many friends might be like me, with a thousand questions popping up in their minds: Didn’t they say we are a “friendly country”? Why is this “pass” not working for us? What’s really going on behind this?
Today, we won’t discuss the official rhetoric; let’s sit down and chat objectively about the intricacies involved.
This “pass” is actually a “toll station”.
First of all, everyone needs to clarify one reality: the current Strait of Hormuz is no longer the free navigation channel we used to understand.
Previously, it was international waters, and everyone could move freely. Now the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is there “watching the scene”. Foreign media reports say that Iran has implemented a strict control system; any ship wanting to pass must first submit documents, apply for a “pass code”, and then be escorted by Iranian tugboats or pilot boats along a designated route.
In simple terms, this is a wartime “toll station”. As long as Iran deems you a “non-hostile” country’s ship, you must pay the “toll” (regardless of whether it is nominal or has substantial conditions) to be allowed to pass.
Thus, Thailand and Pakistan can pass because they have made transactions and guarantees with Iran.
Look at Pakistan; the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister personally stepped in to communicate with Iran, and in the end, Iran agreed to allow two Pakistani ships to pass daily. This is a typical example of a “government-to-government agreement” resulting in the right to pass.
What about us? Although the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been actively working, calling for a ceasefire and maintaining communication, it is evident that this mechanism of “cutting in line” or “special approval” may not have fully covered our two ships that are about to break through.
A brief overview leaves no room for deeper discussion.

Attention! The stage of the main force's initiation and rise often involves these four types of rising techniques. Understanding the main force makes it easy to tell whether it is a washout or a sell-off. This includes both strong and slow rises by the main force. If you are still unfamiliar with the behavior of the main force, then you must carefully watch this content.
As usual, please like, save, or comment 888 to support. I share stock trading insights every day to avoid not being able to review them later.
1. Violent Rise
This is also a type of rapid rise by the main force. When the stock price is at a low level, a significant rise occurs in just a day or two, such as consecutive limit-up boards, and during this process, there will generally be a gap. The increase is very steep, and the trading volume will expand. This indicates that the main force has a relatively concentrated position and has completed the building of their position. Therefore, they need to quickly break away from their cost range. This kind of trend typically appears more frequently in popular sectors.
2. Sideways Rise and Wash
This is also a process of oscillating rise. In the early stages of an upward trend, the stock price rises in a wave, then pulls back for a while. However, throughout the entire process, the high points of the stock price continue to rise, and the low points also keep rising, forming a wave pattern. In the entire rising process, bullish candlesticks often outnumber bearish ones, while the bearish candlesticks are actually the main force's washing technique. They raise while washing, making the market's chips more stable.
3. Stepwise Rise
This shape appears frequently on intraday charts. The stock price first rises in a wave, then begins to consolidate, and continues to rise afterward. It resembles ascending steps, creating a staircase-like pattern. During the entire rising process, the stock price will show an increase in volume, while the consolidation phase will show a decrease in volume. If there is an increase in volume during the consolidation phase, caution is warranted.
4. Bulldozer-style Rise
This is a typical slow bull-type rise. Throughout the process, the stock price rises very slowly but can achieve a series of small incremental increases, usually consisting of small bullish or bearish candlesticks, with almost no deep pullbacks. This indicates that the main force has control over the market, with a slow rise and a relatively gentle trend. Therefore, during the operation of the stock price, the 20-day moving average is a critical line.
Alright! These are the four types of trend shapes in the main force's rising process. Below, I have prepared corresponding case images. It is recommended to view the article and case images together. I hope this inspires everyone, as this is the most basic content, and it is important to thoroughly understand it. See you in the next content.

For Russia, whether Ukraine cedes land or not has become irrelevant. The actual control of the four eastern provinces of Ukraine has long been in the hands of Russia, with the local administrative system and infrastructure operating according to Russian models. Even the currency has been switched to the ruble, and residents have gradually received Russian passports.
If you take a trip around the four eastern provinces now, you will find that Ukrainian hryvnias are no longer seen on the streets; the cash registers in stores are filled with rubles bearing Putin's portrait. Even the aunties at the vegetable market only quote prices in rubles; if you pull out hryvnias, they will just wave their hands and tell you that it doesn't work here anymore.
Local residents now go to the bank for transactions, receiving passbooks from the State Savings Bank of the Russian Federation, and all money transfers operate through the Russian financial system, having completely severed ties with Ukraine.
The administrative aspect has completely changed as well. The governors of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson are now Russian officials personally appointed by Putin. Office documents are in Russian, meetings are conducted in Russian, and even the local police stations have replaced their signs with those of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs, aligning law enforcement standards with Moscow.
The administrative documents left by Ukraine have either been sealed or destroyed, and there is no trace of Ukraine in the government buildings. Schools have long started teaching Russian history and geography, children are singing the Russian national anthem, and raising the Russian flag. It is likely that in a few years, these children will almost forget they were once Ukrainian citizens.
In terms of infrastructure, Russia has also invested heavily. Roads and railways are being connected to Russia's domestic transport network, and bridges and tunnels previously destroyed by war are now being repaired by Russian engineering teams. Even mobile signals have been switched to Russian operators, and when you use your phone in the four eastern provinces, you will see signals from Russian telecom companies like MTS or Beeline.
More importantly, there is social security. Russia has relocated systems like pensions and healthcare insurance to the four eastern provinces. Eligible residents receive pensions issued by Russia every month, and they can use Russian healthcare for medical needs. This is undoubtedly a lifeline for elderly individuals who have lost their sources of income due to the war.
The crux of the issue is the population and identity problem. In March 2025, Putin signed a decree requiring residents of the four eastern provinces to either obtain Russian passports or leave.
When this decree was issued, the scene of local residents lining up to apply for Russian passports was comparable to the rush for train tickets during the Spring Festival. By now, over a million residents have obtained this small red book symbolizing Russian identity.
With this passport, they can freely enter all regions of Russia; working and settling in Moscow or St. Petersburg is no longer an issue, while going to Ukraine requires a visa. This maneuver has completely severed the connection between the residents of the eastern provinces and Ukraine.
The reason Russia is not so concerned about whether Ukraine cedes land is that these territories have long been “meat rotting in the pot.” Legally speaking, the Russian constitution included these four provinces as federal subjects in 2022, and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has made it clear on multiple occasions that these regions are “inseparable parts of Russia,” leaving no room for negotiation.
Last February, Peskov directly countered Zelensky's comments about exchanging land by saying, “This is impossible,” emphasizing that Russia has never discussed the issue of territorial exchange.
Militarily, Russia holds a significant advantage. Most areas in the four eastern provinces are firmly controlled by the Russian military, with only a small portion of Donetsk remaining in Ukrainian hands, and the Russian military continues to advance, capturing several settlements daily.
Since early 2026, the Russian military has not ceased its offensive in the Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson directions. Gerasimov has even declared that this year, these regions will be completely liberated. In contrast, the Ukrainian army can only adopt a passive defense strategy, and driving the Russian military out seems nearly impossible.
Interestingly, Russia has now begun economic development in the four eastern provinces. The Putin government plans to invest heavily over three years to rebuild 8,000 houses, and develop agriculture and industry locally, aiming to turn this area into Russia's food base and energy hub.
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is now managed by the Russian State Atomic Energy Corporation, with most of its electricity being supplied to Russia, and the port in Kherson has also opened to Russian vessels, with exported food and minerals becoming strategic resources for Russia.
In fact, it is clear to the discerning that what Russia wants now is not a legal acknowledgment of land cession from Ukraine, but to completely assimilate the four eastern provinces into its territory.
Even if Ukraine suddenly announces recognition of these four provinces as belonging to Russia, for Russia, it would merely be an additional piece of paper, as the real benefits have already been secured.
On the contrary, Ukraine is still clinging to the obsession of “territorial integrity,” with Zelensky daily calling for the recovery of lost territory internationally, while the troops at hand are struggling to hold their current positions.
The current situation is that Russia has firmly established itself in the four eastern provinces, and the lives of local residents are gradually returning to normal. Regardless of whether Ukraine is willing to acknowledge it, these four provinces have already become part of Russia's possession. As for the diplomatic rhetoric of land cession, for Russia, it is merely an optional formality, as the real control and interests are far more significant than a piece of paper agreement.
Ultimately, this war has reached a point where territorial ownership is no longer determined at the negotiation table, but rather by the guns and actual control on the battlefield. Russia currently holds all real power in the four eastern provinces, and no amount of Ukrainian maneuvering can change the established facts. Instead of getting caught up in the dilemma of whether to cede land, it is better to think about how to respond to Russia's upcoming offensive; this should be the serious concern of the Ukrainian government.

乌克兰宣布
3月29日，一条重磅消息突然传来：泽连斯基正式宣布，乌克兰与中东三国达成了一份长达十年的防务合作大单。

这份突如其来的合作官宣，瞬间打破了俄乌冲突以来的地缘博弈平衡，也彻底跳出了西方援助乌克兰的固有框架，让本就复杂的国际局势，又多了一层关键变数。

外界起初都在猜测合作的具体内容，很快细节就浮出水面，此次联手的中东三国为沙特、阿联酋、卡塔尔，合作绝非临时的短期互助，而是实打实的长期战略绑定。

核心合作方向十分明确，聚焦乌克兰最擅长的实战防务领域，包括无人机联合研发生产、防空系统技术共享，还有战场实战经验的直接输出。

要知道，俄乌冲突打了两年多，乌克兰在反无人机、防空拦截、电子对抗等方面，积累了其他国家没有的一线实战经验，这正是中东三国迫切需要的。

中东多国常年面临无人机、导弹袭扰的安全威胁，尤其是能源运输航道和关键设施的防护，一直是心腹大患，乌克兰的实战技术刚好能精准补上这个短板。

这份十年期协议，也彻底改变了乌克兰此前一味依赖美欧援助的被动局面，从单纯的受援方，转身变成了防务技术与经验的输出方。

合作模式也很清晰，中东三国提供资金与资源支持，乌克兰输出实战技术与专业人员，双方各取所需，形成了实打实的互利共赢关系。

此前美欧对乌援助屡屡出现延期、缩水的情况，乌克兰的国防资金一度面临紧张，这份大单无疑给乌克兰注入了一剂强心针，缓解了燃眉之急。

对于中东三国而言，此举也让他们在安全保障上多了一个可靠选择，不再完全依赖单一外部力量，自主防护能力能得到实打实的提升。

这场跨区域的防务合作，看似是乌与中东三国的双边事宜，实则牵动着全球地缘政治、能源安全等多个核心领域的格局变化。

没有花哨的噱头，全是基于现实安全与利益的考量，这也让这份十年合作，比任何口头承诺都更有分量，更具长远影响力。

各位读者朋友你们怎么看？欢迎在评论区讨论

Why don't tens of millions of tanks install 5,000 yuan air conditioners? The high temperature of 60 degrees Celsius causes tank soldiers to faint, yet there are no air conditioners inside the tanks. During a summer tank training in Egypt, 40% of soldiers suffered from heatstroke within 30 minutes, and 2 people died from heat. Some main battle tanks have air conditioning not for the soldiers' comfort, but to cool the equipment.
The answer to the question is quite heartbreaking: it's not that they can't afford it, but that they can't install it; this is a single-choice question without options under the survival rules of the battlefield.
Firstly, there is the dilemma of limited space. Modern tanks, in order to balance protection and firepower, have their internal space squeezed to the extreme. The entire vehicle is filled with ammunition, fire control systems, transmission devices, and communication equipment, leaving the activity space for 3-4 tank soldiers about the size of a desk.
A complete onboard air conditioning system, including a compressor, piping, and cooling equipment, occupies at least 0.5 cubic meters of space. Forcibly adding it would only encroach on the operational area, potentially affecting ammunition storage and significantly increasing the rate of operational errors, directly weakening combat effectiveness.
Secondly, mobility is strictly controlled. Tanks are known as the kings of land warfare, and quick assaults followed by immediate withdrawals are key to survival on the battlefield. An air conditioning system weighs 150-200 kilograms, which not only increases the burden on the vehicle but also significantly raises fuel consumption and reduces speed.
Being one second slower on the battlefield means a greater risk of being locked onto and penetrated by the enemy. No commander would sacrifice the core mobility of tanks for the comfort of the crew.
More critically, there is the risk of exposure on the battlefield, which is a key point that many people overlook.
Ordinary air conditioners continuously dissipate heat during operation, making them a conspicuous heat source target in the eyes of infrared detection equipment, effectively guiding enemy missiles; moreover, installing air conditioning requires drilling holes and placing external units on thick armor, turning these positions into weak points that can be easily penetrated by armor-piercing and high-explosive projectiles.
Furthermore, air conditioning is also a "big energy consumer"; under high-temperature conditions, its power consumption can account for 10%-15% of the tank's engine power, which would directly divert energy from core combat equipment like fire control and communication, making it not worth the cost.
Surprisingly, with advancements in military technology, new generations of main battle tanks such as China's 99A, VT4, the US M1A2, and Russia's T-14 have gradually been equipped with dedicated onboard environmental control systems that balance crew cooling and equipment heat dissipation while avoiding issues like infrared exposure and armor damage. However, this system is expensive and technologically complex, far beyond the replacement of several thousand yuan commercial air conditioners.
In the years before technological breakthroughs, tank soldiers had to rely on rudimentary air circulation systems and liquid-cooled cooling vests to endure.
The cabin was filled with smoke and noise; in summer, they were soaked, and in winter, their hands and feet were numb. Even in such hellish conditions, they still had to accurately complete a series of operations such as aiming, shooting, and maneuvering.
There is no such thing as peaceful years; it is merely that some people bear the sacrifices of equipment and the battlefield with their flesh and blood. They stand firm in the high-temperature steam room, guarding not just a tank, but the country’s defense line and peace.

实在是撑不住了，在顿涅茨克北部的康斯坦丁诺夫卡战场，这支驻守当地的乌军部队没被俄军炮火打崩，反倒因为断粮断水、连基本温饱都保障不了，不少士兵无奈放下武器投降了，前线阵地一步步陷入被动。

康斯坦丁诺夫卡的战场困境正朝着更严峻的方向发展。这座位于顿涅茨克北部的交通枢纽，如今已成为俄乌双方拉锯的核心区域，而乌军面临的难题早已超出单纯的军事对抗范畴。

俄罗斯武装力量通过精准战术布局，让驻守此地的乌克兰第5独立突击旅陷入了绝境。俄方大量投入FPV无人机，配合Supercam、ZALA等侦察系统，对乌军的后勤通道实施了全方位封锁。

任何试图向阵地运送物资的车辆和人员，都会被迅速锁定并打击。这种持续的监控与打击，让乌军的物资供应彻底陷入停滞。

士兵们的生存状况急剧恶化。他们连续多日得不到食物和饮用水补充，战壕里仅存的少量压缩饼干和自来水早已耗尽。

身体的透支让士兵们失去了基本的作战能力，更谈不上抵抗俄军的推进。超过20名乌军士兵在绝望中做出了投降的选择，他们向俄罗斯南部军区第33近卫摩托化步兵团放下了武器。这些士兵清楚知道，继续坚守只会面临饿死或渴死的结局，投降成为唯一的生路。

与此同时，俄军的地面攻势并未停歇。俄罗斯武装力量总参谋长瓦列里·格拉西莫夫此前证实，康斯坦丁诺夫卡60%以上的区域已被俄军控制。

东北部的巷战仍在持续，俄方部队已抵达西南郊区并向市区纵深推进。紧接着，俄军“南方”集群部队从东部楔入市区，同时从北、南两翼实施火力打击，成功将乌军集群一分为二。

乌军的防御体系正在逐步瓦解。原本被改造成独立堡垒的老式苏联多层建筑，虽然能抵御部分无人机攻击，但在俄军的“磨碎式”打击战术下已难以支撑。

俄方先通过全面火力消耗乌军有生力量，再在无人机与航空掩护下以小群兵力推进，一步步压缩乌军的活动空间。恰索夫亚尔地区的反击尝试未能奏效，乌军突击队在推进过程中始终面临补给短缺的问题。

战场的地理优势正不断向俄方倾斜。康斯坦丁诺夫卡作为保障乌军克拉马托尔斯克-斯拉维扬斯克集群供应的关键节点，其交通枢纽功能已基本丧失。

俄军对铁路、公路等运输设施的持续打击，让后方物资无法向前线流动。即便乌军前线指挥部调动预备队前往救援，也因俄军饱和式的无人机攻击而难以顺利投送。

士兵们的士气在饥饿与绝望中消磨殆尽。他们不仅要面对物资匮乏的困境，还要承受持续的心理压力。

通讯系统时常被俄军电子战设备干扰，基层部队频繁与指挥部失去联系，只能在信息隔绝的状态下被动应战。这种孤立无援的处境，让越来越多的士兵失去了抵抗的意志。

康斯坦丁诺夫卡的战场态势，清晰展现了现代战争中后勤保障的关键作用。俄军通过切断补给线的战术，未费大规模攻坚之力便让乌军防线出现缺口。随着更多阵地的丢失，乌军在顿涅茨克北部的防御体系正面临全面崩塌的风险。那些放下武器的士兵，用最无奈的方式诉说着战争的残酷，而这场因后勤断裂引发的连锁反应，还在持续影响着战场的走向。

周末复盘与下周A股前瞻：情绪博弈与韧性应对
结合周末消息面，下周A股行情的走向依然存在显著分歧。市场在经历了“川普画K线”的旧逻辑后，也开始学习如何更精准地解读新的外部变量。针对下周行情，提前做如下分析与预判：
一、 多空分歧：外部扰动与市场韧性并存
周末市场对下周走势的观点呈现两极分化：
1. 空头逻辑：核心担忧源于美伊局势持续升级。叠加上周五美股晚间下跌、国际油价再度冲高，这些外部风险加剧了资金对下周A股开盘及情绪的担忧。
2. 多头逻辑：更看重A股自身的韧性与独立性。上周五A股低开高走的走势已显示出市场对中东局势敏感度的下降，表明内部资金更注重国内基本面，外部波动的影响有望被消化。
二、 消息面拆解：真假难辨，波动加剧
周末的关键消息面可归纳为四个方面，整体呈现“冲突与缓和并存”的特征，这将直接导致金融市场的震荡：
1. 局势升级：美伊冲突未见缓和，美方为地面行动做准备，短中期内仍是悬在市场头上的一把剑。
2. 局部利好：霍尔木兹海峡通航问题出现积极信号，多国宣布允许安全通行，这在一定程度上缓解了市场对能源安全和全球贸易的担忧。
3. 缓和信号：美股收盘后，伊方释放出制定战争结束条件的积极动向。
4. 美方表态：美副总统明确表示“无意滞留”，计划快速撤出相关力量。
总结：当前局势呈现“一边打、一边谈”的复杂局面，消息面真真假假，金融市场势必会因此出现上下反复的剧烈波动。
三、 核心关键：立足当下，忽略过去
下周金融市场的核心并非纠结于过去的涨跌，而在于对当下局势的态度与反应。过去的K线对当日走势的影响已日益减弱。
实例印证：周四夜盘美股下跌，但周五早盘受利好刺激，亚太股市集体低开高走；反之，周五夜盘美股因利空大跌，若周一白天出现缓和消息，亚太股市依然有能力抗跌、甚至收涨。
影响评估：周末的利空已在一定程度上得到释放，对下周的整体影响边际递减。下周一的开盘虽受周末消息压制，但关键在于是否会出现新的、超预期的利空。
四、 下周A股策略：震荡为主，低吸为机
针对下周A股市场，具体研判如下：
1. 开盘预判：受周末地缘政治消息影响，下周一A股大概率会出现低开。
2. 走势推演：低开之后能否再度震荡走高，取决于周一盘中消息面的变化。当前市场情绪虽受扰动，但内部承接盘的力量依然存在。
3. 投资者心态：目前市场再次出现极端看空情绪，不少人因外部事件而动摇持仓。但需警惕的是，看法可随消息快速转变，操作上却难以灵活切换。因此，控制仓位、保持定力是关键，切忌在震荡中追涨杀跌。
4. 新逻辑演变：“川普画K线”的单一效应正在减弱，市场也在学习如何应对外部力量利用消息面影响市场的新手法。美股跌幅已超10%，其波动本身也会对美方形成压力，这对A股而言未必是坏事。
5. 应对策略：短期来看，外部因素对A股情绪的影响仍在。但每次因外部恐慌导致的大幅低开，往往是低吸优质标的、参与反弹的良机

The United States is fundamentally not afraid of Iran; if it weren't for China eyeing closely, the US-Iran war might have ended long ago! Many people believe that the reason the US has not taken action against Iran is due to concerns about Iran's military strength and strong will. This view actually deviates from the core logic. As the world's only superpower, the overall military strength and comprehensive national power of the US far exceed that of Iran. The gap in hard power between the two sides is evident, and there is no possibility of Iran being able to confront the US head-on. In simple terms, if the US takes Iran seriously and fully commits to launching a comprehensive war against Iran, it is highly likely that Iran would not withstand it. This is less about whether the Iranian people are willing to give in or how resolute they are, but more about the comprehensive national strength, industrial system, and military equipment level determining the overall gap. Iran's military strength is considered strong in the Middle East, possessing a complete missile defense system and local combat advantages, and it can control the crucial energy passage of the Strait of Hormuz, exerting strong influence over the regional situation. However, compared to the global scale, Iran's military industry, ocean-going combat capability, and airstrike power are not on the same level as the US. The US has sufficient capability to completely crush Iran from a military perspective; whether through precision strikes, maritime blockades, or ground advances, the US military has a mature combat system and ample equipment support. Over the past few decades, the US has engaged in multiple regional wars, and its tactics and experiences in dealing with medium and small countries are quite rich, with complete operational plans available for dealing with Iran as well. The core reason the US has delayed in launching a comprehensive war has never been Iran itself, but rather the constraints of global strategic deployment, which have prevented it from concentrating all its energy and resources on Iran. In recent years, the US has repeatedly adjusted its global strategy, clearly prioritizing great power competition as the primary national security goal, with its strategic focus continuously shifting towards the Indo-Pacific region. To implement this strategy, the US has been continually redeploying forces and advanced equipment from the Middle East, moving aircraft carrier battle groups, stealth fighters, and elite troops originally stationed in the Gulf region to the Western Pacific area. The scale of US military presence in the Middle East has been shrinking year by year, with military deployment density being much less than before, and there is no longer enough strength to support a large-scale comprehensive war. If the US rashly goes to war with Iran, it will inevitably fall into the quagmire of the Middle Eastern battlefield, requiring massive investments of military funds, personnel, and supplies, along with a long-term depletion of strategic resources. Once deeply entrenched in the Iranian battlefield, the US's strategic deployment in the Indo-Pacific region would face a huge gap, rendering it incapable of responding to changes in the situation in the Indo-Pacific region. The US's global hegemonic layout emphasizes comprehensive control and precise resource allocation, and cannot expend too much core strength on secondary strategic directions. The Middle East remains important to the US, as energy security and the interests of regional allies need to be maintained, but it is no longer the US's number one strategic focus. The current US needs to maintain its basic influence in the Middle East to prevent Iran from completely breaking the regional balance, while at the same time, it cannot invest all its strength in a deadlock with Iran. This difficult situation stems from the fact that the US needs to focus most of its strategic energy on the Indo-Pacific region to deal with the comprehensive challenges posed by great power competition. Setting aside the core premise of great power competition, if we assume that the US did not face strategic constraints in the Indo-Pacific region and could concentrate all its military and economic resources against Iran, a full-scale conflict between the US and Iran would likely have erupted long ago. Iran's geographical advantages and combat capabilities are not sufficient to withstand the military strikes of the US deploying the full strength of the nation. The US has long adopted a strategy of extreme pressure, economic sanctions, and localized deterrence against Iran, aiming to avoid direct full-scale war while using the least cost to restrain Iran. Behind this strategy is a strategic compromise that the US has to make, reflecting the reality of its limited strategic resources. Iran is also aware of the US's strategic dilemma, so it has maintained a tough external attitude, relying on its domestic advantages and regional ally networks to engage in long-term games with the US. Both sides have repeatedly approached the brink of war, yet have never crossed the red line of full-scale conflict, primarily weighing global strategic interests. Looking at the development of international situations, the shift of the US's strategic focus is still ongoing, and for a long time to come, it will not treat Iran as its number one strategic opponent. As long as the pattern of great power competition remains unchanged, the US will not easily launch a comprehensive war against Iran, but will only maintain the existing game situation. The gap in comprehensive national power determines that Iran cannot independently confront the US, but changes in the international landscape and the direction of great power games have provided Iran with space for survival and competition. The US may seem trapped in the Middle East, but fundamentally, it is constrained by global strategic layouts and cannot launch wars at will. When assessing the long-term confrontation between the US and Iran, one cannot focus solely on the localized contradictions in the Middle East but must analyze it within the context of the global strategic landscape. So, do you think the US will adjust its strategic focus in the future, re-listing the Middle East as a core target, and subsequently take stronger military actions against Iran? Feel free to share your views in the comments.

开战29日首次，伊朗精准轰炸500名美军藏匿点，救护车忙了几个小时，仍在紧急抢救！伊朗披露伤亡极其严重
2026年3月28号，中东那边爆出了一件天大的事，美以对伊朗的军事行动刚打到第29天，伊朗就干了一件让全世界都没想到的事，直接对着美军藏在迪拜的两个秘密据点，来了一次精准轰炸，这也是开战这么久以来，伊朗头一回这么直接、这么狠地冲着美军的核心藏匿点下手。
常看国际新闻的朋友都清楚，美军在中东横行霸道了这么多年，向来把自己的情报系统吹得天花乱坠，说什么全球无死角监控，天上的卫星24小时不停盯着，各个地区的防空系统布得密不透风，别说是冲着他们来的导弹了，就是个陌生的飞行器往他们的地盘靠近，都能提前半天发现，早早做好防备。
结果这次呢，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队直接把他们藏在迪拜的老巢摸得一清二楚，连两个据点里分别藏了多少人都查得明明白白，一个据点里窝了四百多号人，另一个藏了一百多号，加起来足足五百多个美军，愣是一点风声都没走漏，就这么被伊朗死死锁定了目标。
说起来美军会把人藏在迪拜，也是被伊朗之前的持续打击打怕了。
开战这近一个月里，伊朗一直没停过对中东地区美军基地的反击，美军明面上的军事基地接二连三遭袭，他们觉得常规基地太显眼，早就不安全了，就动了歪心思，偷偷把大批人员从正规军事基地里撤出来，转到迪拜这种地方的秘密据点里藏着。
他们心里肯定打着如意算盘，觉得迪拜不是交战区，又是中东出了名的金融中心，人多眼杂，伊朗就算再硬气，也不敢随便在这种地方动手，更别说能找到他们藏在哪了，简直是把这里当成了万无一失的避风港。
可美军千算万算，没算到伊朗根本不吃这一套，也没算到自己的藏身计划早就被伊朗摸得底朝天。
伊朗这次可不是临时起意随便打打，是经过了长时间的周密侦察，把这两个据点的具体位置、人员规模、甚至里面人员的身份都摸透了之后，才果断出的手。
行动里伊朗直接出动了精确制导导弹，还搭配了无人机协同作战，对着两个锁定的目标同时发起了打击，出手又快又准又狠，根本没给美军留任何反应和应对的时间。
你想啊，五百多号人挤在两个隐蔽的据点里，面对的又是突如其来的精准轰炸，别说组织什么防御了，就连紧急疏散都根本来不及，炸弹一落地，现场直接就陷入了混乱。
伊朗武装部队的官方发言人也直接对外公布了这次行动的情况，明确表示这次打击给美军造成了极其严重的人员伤亡，这两个据点里藏着的不光有普通的美军士兵，还有不少负责中东地区军事行动的指挥官。
轰炸结束之后，当地的救护车就没停过，一趟接一趟地往现场赶，拉着死伤者往医院转运，就这么连续忙了好几个小时，到最后都还在进行紧急抢救，光是看这个场面，就能知道这次美军的损失到底有多惨重。
这事最让人觉得有意思的，还是美军前后的反差。
平时在全世界面前，美军永远摆着全球第一军事强国的架子，走到哪都要彰显自己的实力，天天把自己的情报能力、防御能力挂在嘴边。
结果这次被伊朗直接摸到了自己精心隐藏的秘密藏身地，连人带窝一起端了，事前一点预警都没做出来，事后也没拿出什么像样的应对，只敢在社交媒体上干巴巴地发了一句，没有美军人员在迪拜遇袭。
这话别说各国的军事观察人员了，就算是普通老百姓听了，也都知道其中的水分有多大。
要知道，这可不是一次普通的小规模冲突，开战29天以来，伊朗和美军虽然一直有交锋，但大多是在叙利亚、伊拉克这些地区的零星对抗，要么是针对美军的常规军事基地，要么是局部的火力交锋，从来没有像这次一样，直接在迪拜这种非交战区，对着美军专门转移藏匿的人员聚集点，发动这么大规模的精准打击，一出手就覆盖了五百多人的目标。
这等于伊朗直接把巴掌甩到了美军的脸上，明明白白地告诉美国，你别以为躲在第三国就安全了，只要你还想着针对伊朗，不管你把人藏到中东的哪个角落，伊朗都能找到你，也能精准打到你。
这事一出，整个中东的局势瞬间又绷紧了。
之前美军在中东的那些盟友，大多都靠着美军的保护过日子，现在连美军自己藏在迪拜的人都保不住，被伊朗说炸就炸了，这些国家心里肯定也得犯嘀咕，美军连自己的安全都顾不上了，还能护得住我们吗？更别说伊朗在这次行动之后，还直接对地区国家发出了警告，让那些允许美国和以色列从自己土地上发动战争的国家及时收手，否则伊朗也会进行强力报复。
现在这事刚爆出来没多长时间，伊朗这边把行动的细节、打击的目标、造成的结果都说得明明白白，美军那边却只有一句简单的否认，没拿出什么实际的证据来反驳。
接下来美军会怎么做，是打碎了牙往肚子里咽，默默认下这个亏，还是反手对伊朗发动更大规模的报复，现在谁也说不准。
但可以肯定的是，经此一事，美军在中东经营了这么多年的威慑力，必然会大打折扣，而中东这潭原本就不平静的浑水，也只会变得越来越浑了。

Iran has achieved significant results!
On March 28, Iran dealt a heavy blow to the U.S. military, during an attack on a U.S. base in Saudi Arabia where it not only destroyed 3 KC-135 aerial refueling aircraft but also directly destroyed an E3 early warning aircraft. Although the E3 early warning aircraft is a product of the last century, its role in the U.S. military is quite significant. It has the capability to monitor manned and unmanned aircraft in various terrains, and also has radar monitoring capabilities in the atmosphere, on the ground, and on the water. Each unit costs as much as $270 million, and its replacement model is not expected to be delivered until 2028. Therefore, with Iran destroying one U.S. aircraft, it means one less for the U.S. military, which greatly affects their air defense and early warning capabilities in the Middle East.
In addition to this achievement, on the 28th, Iran also conducted precise strikes on two U.S. military bases hidden in the UAE and Dubai. Iran responded by stating, "It caused significant personnel losses to the U.S. military," and in this attack, Iran also destroyed a Ukrainian anti-drone system located in Dubai. At that time, there were 21 Ukrainian soldiers in the warehouse, all of whom were hit. Notably, on that same day, Zelensky personally went to the Middle East to sign defense cooperation agreements with these Gulf countries, but unexpectedly, Iran pulled off a big move.
In terms of naval operations, Iran announced on the 28th that it hit a U.S. naval vessel. The incident occurred in the waters off the southern coast of Salalah, Oman. Previously, Trump claimed, "The Iranian navy has been completely wiped out; they have no strike capability left," but it seems Trump lied again. Although Iran has lost dozens of naval vessels, the Iranian navy still possesses strike capabilities, and this operation is a good proof of that.
As Iran’s achievements continue to increase, the Houthis, far away in the Red Sea, suddenly announced: "Officially entering the war." As of a few days ago, the Houthis have launched two rounds of missile strikes against Israel, but this is not the confidence that the Houthis dare to enter the war; they also threatened to block the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Currently, the Houthis have initiated a total mobilization, and it is estimated that there will be hundreds of thousands of Houthi members participating in the war, which is a very troubling matter for Israel, as Israel has no air defense capability to intercept missiles from the Houthis.
From the above situation, the predicament of the U.S. and Israel is already very unfavorable. Currently, if they want to break the deadlock, both sides may have to pay a high price, but how much price can they afford to pay?

Now I finally understand why the US and Israel's missiles were so accurate.

Tayeb, Iran's top mole, a core figure in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, was a spy with an extremely long and deep infiltration history.

The assassination of Khamenei, the killing of high-ranking officials, the leak of the nuclear program, the attack on nuclear scientists, and the leak of military deployments and operational plans are all related to him. He had long been bribed by Israel's Mossad intelligence agency.

On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched a precision airstrike, killing Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei and more than 40 high-ranking military and political officials in the central office area of ​​Tehran. The Iranian government immediately declared 40 days of national mourning. The core intelligence for this shocking assassination was provided by Tayeb.

As a key figure who headed the Revolutionary Guard's intelligence organization for 13 years from 2009 to 2022, Tayeb was in charge of counter-espionage, high-level security, and nuclear missile intelligence. He was Khamenei's closest confidant and possessed Iran's most top-level state secrets. No one knows what benefits Mossad promised Taib—was it an astronomical sum of US dollars, the privilege of his entire family immigrating to Israel, or some kind of exchange that would lead him to betray his country? In any case, this man at the top of Iran's intelligence system, through over a decade of disguise, transformed himself into a sharp dagger plunged into the heart of Iran.

He knew all too well where Iran's weaknesses lay, and he understood all too well what the US and Israel most wanted. As the head of counterintelligence, he personally built Iran's counterintelligence network, yet secretly opened backdoors for Mossad. Mechanisms meant to prevent external infiltration were transformed in his hands into green channels for intelligence transmission.

When several Iranian nuclear scientists were attacked, the outside world assumed it was due to the superior skills of Mossad agents, but no one suspected that the precise timing and routes of each attack, even the scientists' private schedules, were all provided by Taib himself.

He knew which security loopholes existed, which routes were unmonitored, and could even arrange "facilities" in advance to allow Mossad agents to infiltrate undetected, succeed, and then smoothly withdraw. Several times, Iranian investigations could only be attributed to "accidents," with no indication that the problem lay within its own core leadership.

Even more fatal was the leak of its nuclear program. Iran had secretly pursued nuclear research for over a decade, investing vast amounts of manpower and resources in an attempt to build its own nuclear deterrent. All of this core data—from the specific locations of nuclear facilities and raw material reserves to research progress and the list of key technical personnel—was gradually passed down by Taib to Mossad, who then shared it with the United States.This explains why the US and Israel have consistently been able to precisely target Iran's nuclear facilities, hitting vital points with each airstrike, while Iran has remained baffled as to how the US and Israel obtained these secrets. Taib acted as a "guide" intimately familiar with Iran, leading US and Israeli missiles to precisely bypass all defenses and strike at Iran's core.

Khamenei's trust in him provided him with the opportunity. As Khamenei's closest confidant, he had free access to the highest leadership's offices, participated in all top-level military and political meetings, and even had direct access to Iran's strategic action plans.

This decapitation strike was achieved by him using his authority to ascertain the concentrated office times of Khamenei and over 40 high-ranking military and political officials, precisely providing information on the office's architectural structure, security deployment, and even blind spots in the air defense system. This allowed the US and Israeli air strikes to encounter virtually no resistance, striking swiftly and decisively, directly destroying Iran's highest leadership.

Following the incident, Iran descended into chaos. Khamenei's death left the country without its spiritual leader, and the deaths of over 40 high-ranking military and political officials created a power vacuum within the government and military.

The Revolutionary Guard was gripped by fear and suspicion, with many wondering how many traitors like Taeb were lurking within its ranks. The once tightly organized structure collapsed instantly. Even more disheartening was that after leaking intelligence and cooperating with the US and Israel in the assassination attempt, Taeb quietly withdrew from Iran and sought refuge under Israeli protection. Even if Iran wanted revenge, it could only watch helplessly.

Many are puzzled: as a core figure in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, wielding considerable power and enjoying widespread trust, why would Taeb choose to betray his country? Simply put, it was greed and selfishness; he placed his personal interests above those of the nation and its people. In his eyes, so-called national loyalty and righteousness were nothing compared to the tangible benefits offered by Mossad. He was willing to be a pawn of the US and Israel, and to watch his country descend into chaos, all for his own wealth and glory. The reason the US and Israel were able to win over such a top figure was precisely because they exploited the weaknesses of human nature, using self-interest as bait to gradually dismantle Iran's internal defenses.This incident also thoroughly exposed the ruthless nature of the US-Israel intelligence war. They rely not only on advanced weaponry but also on internal infiltration, cultivating moles and stealing intelligence to achieve maximum results with minimal cost.

Previously, people often attributed the accuracy of US and Israeli missiles to their advanced military technology, overlooking the most crucial factor—the precision of intelligence. The source of this precise intelligence was moles like Tayib.

Without the core secrets provided by Tayib, even with the most advanced missiles, the US and Israel would have struggled to achieve a fatal strike, let alone easily decapitate Iran's top leadership.

Iran's tragedy lies not only in the loss of its Supreme Leader and a number of high-ranking military and political officials but, more importantly, in the complete destruction of its internal trust system, leaving irreparable vulnerabilities in the nation's security defenses. For a long time to come, Iran will have to rebuild its leadership amidst chaos, purge internal traitors, and strengthen intelligence and security. During this period, the US and Israel will undoubtedly seize the opportunity to intensify their pressure on Iran, further weakening its power.

This incident serves as a wake-up call for all countries. A fortress is most easily breached from within. No matter how powerful a military force or how robust a defense system, it becomes vulnerable if a traitor is found within. Taib's betrayal dealt a fatal blow to Iran and exposed the dangers of internal spies, especially top-level ones, whose destructive power can far surpass that of a direct war.

Zelensky's shocking statement: In order to keep Putin away from China, Trump is willing to offend more than 20 countries!

Recently, the U.S. military has been caught up in warfare, and the world's attention on the Russia-Ukraine war has diminished. However, a few hours ago, Zelensky's remarks during an interview suddenly topped the front pages of many European countries.

A few hours ago, during an interview, Zelensky suddenly stated: "Once we officially withdraw from the Donbas region, the United States will provide comprehensive security guarantees to Ukraine!"

This statement instantly ignited public opinion in Europe, with multiple front pages focusing on this breakthrough statement, causing the attention on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which had cooled due to the U.S. military's actions in the Middle East, to soar again.

Ukrainian President Zelensky further revealed in a special interview that the peace agreement framework proposed by the U.S. comes with clear conditions: Kyiv must hand over full control of the eastern Donbas region to Russia in exchange for the so-called comprehensive security guarantees. He bluntly stated that the Trump administration is increasing pressure on Ukraine, and the situation in the Middle East is pushing the U.S. to end this four-year-long conflict as soon as possible.

The current predicament of the U.S. military deeply entangled in Middle Eastern warfare is a critical backdrop. Since the U.S. and Israel launched military actions against Iran, the losses suffered by the U.S. military have been continually escalating. In just the past two weeks, the destruction of military infrastructure has resulted in approximately $800 million in losses, with 232 U.S. soldiers injured, and several F-35 fighters, refueling planes, and drones hit or crashed.

With war costs exceeding $1 billion daily, the White House had to urgently apply for over $200 billion in additional funding, making it difficult for the U.S. to support two large-scale conflicts simultaneously due to this strategic overreach.

The logic behind the Trump administration's pressure is gradually becoming clear. Russia has consistently asserted that controlling the entire Donbas region is the core of its war objectives. The Russian military has already occupied the key Donbas town of Chasiv Yar after nearly 500 days of fierce battles, and the handover of this strategic high ground puts the Ukrainian military's defensive lines in the east at risk of collapse.

The U.S. is keenly aware of this battlefield situation and is attempting to use security guarantees as leverage to push for a Ukrainian withdrawal, thereby concentrating its efforts on the Middle Eastern conflict and Sino-Russian interactions.

Meanwhile, Trump's strategy has sparked dissatisfaction among multiple countries. Hungarian Prime Minister Orban announced on March 25 local time that Hungary would gradually stop supplying natural gas to Ukraine, citing Ukraine's oil blockade against Hungary and attacks on gas pipelines as the reason.

This decision adds to the difficulties faced by Ukraine, which is already under energy pressure, and highlights the divisions within Europe regarding policies towards Ukraine. In fact, the U.S.-driven security guarantee plan for Ukraine has indirectly affected the balance of interests for over 20 related countries, with some European nations expressing concerns about their own energy security and geopolitical strategies being compromised, while criticizing the U.S. for its unilateral pressure.

Zelensky remains skeptical about this security guarantee. He has clearly pointed out that two core issues remain unresolved: one is the source of funding for Ukraine's long-term military deterrence, and the other is the specific response mechanism of allies in the event of future conflicts.

The Ukrainian president had optimistically stated earlier this year that the U.S.-Ukraine security document was "100% ready," but after the Miami talks, he had to admit that there are still many obstacles in the agreement process.

Historical lessons make this skepticism even more realistic. In the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, the U.S., UK, and Russia promised to guarantee Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity in exchange for Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons. However, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, these promises were not fulfilled, and former U.S. President Clinton has expressed regret over the push for Ukraine's denuclearization at that time. Zelensky knows very well that security guarantees based solely on verbal promises lack substantial binding force.

The negotiation progress among Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine has also been tortuous. Since the beginning of this year, the three parties have held three rounds of high-level talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, with Russia confirming some progress in the talks, but key issues remain unresolved.

Russian presidential spokesperson Peskov stated that territorial issues are at the core of the negotiations and that Russia maintains an open attitude towards the talks while keeping in contact with the U.S. Meanwhile, a Russian parliamentary delegation has arrived in the U.S. for meetings, marking the first high-level parliamentary contact between the two countries since 2018, and Putin is highly focused on the outcomes of the discussions.

The deeper considerations of the Trump administration hide a wariness of Sino-Russian interactions. The U.S. attempts to promote a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine to reduce the strategic cooperation space of the Putin government with China, which has left multiple countries feeling passive. Many European nations are concerned about the refugee and energy crises that could arise from the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict, yet they are unwilling to be bound by the U.S. in a camp opposing China and Russia. This contradictory mentality has caused the U.S. pressure strategy to encounter hidden resistance.

Zelensky's statement was not a sudden move. Against the backdrop of the U.S. military's ongoing losses in the Middle East and domestic opposition to the war with Iran reaching 60%, Trump needs to quickly distance himself from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Additionally, the passive situation of Ukraine on the Donbas battlefield and the energy supply pressure from countries like Hungary force Zelensky to confront reality.

This game surrounding the withdrawal from Donbas and security guarantees is essentially a blend of great power strategic struggle and small country survival choices, with each decision made by various parties profoundly impacting the regional and even global security landscape.

刚刷到一篇任泽平写的关于未来3-5年，AI将彻底改变世界的文章，文章描绘的AI改变世界的场景确实让人心潮澎湃：满大街没有方向盘的自动驾驶汽车，工厂里全是机器人，AI Agent帮我们搞定所有 paperwork，癌症被攻克，人类活到120岁，甚至还能去火星安个家。听着就像科幻电影照进现实，美好得让人不敢信。
但我琢磨了半天，总觉得哪里不太对劲。
首先，如果AI真把事儿都干了，那我们人类干嘛去？
文章还说“初级蓝领、白领岗位被替代，大规模冲击就业”，“优化再就业和收入分配机制”这个看起来很正确、实际上啥也没说的结论上。
作为一个普通人，我最关心的恰恰就是这个：如果AI能写代码、做PPT、审合同、炒菜、开车、看病、搞科研……那我学啥才能不被淘汰？总不能都去“养龙虾”吧？
文章说未来会出现“一人公司”，一个人雇佣一堆AI Agent。但问题是，如果大家都开“一人公司”，谁来当消费者？谁来创造那些AI创造不了的价值？
其次，这个“既要乌托邦又不要迷信乌托邦”的表述，是不是有点矛盾？
文章前面用了大量篇幅描绘了一个近乎完美的技术乌托邦：交通不堵了、空气不污染了、看病便宜了、寿命变长了、科技进步空前加快了……读下来感觉未来就是天堂。
但最后突然来一句“不要迷信技术乌托邦”，就像是一个人先请你吃了一顿满汉全席，然后告诉你“其实别太当回事，这可能是最后一顿了”。
我理解作者可能是想表达一种辩证的态度——既看到技术的潜力，也警惕它的风险。但这种“既要又要”的表述方式，反而让人摸不清他到底想说什么。如果前面把AI描绘得无所不能、解决一切问题，那本身就容易让人陷入“技术乌托邦”的迷思，后面再补一句“别迷信”，多少有点像是在免责。
再来说说那些过于理想的假设。
“自动驾驶比人安全十倍，城市不再拥堵”——且不说技术本身的难度，单说如果大家都用自动驾驶，路上跑的车可能会更多（因为方便啊），再加上没有红绿灯、没有交警指挥的极端假设，真的不会堵吗？
“AI医生看病水平超过大部分医生，误诊率大幅下降”——这个我信，但“普通人也能享受到北京、上海的医疗水平”，这真的只是技术问题吗？优质医疗资源背后还有制度、成本、分配等等复杂因素，AI能解决诊断水平不均的问题，但解决不了整个医疗体系的公平性问题。
“AI大模型智力超群，在所有领域智力超过人类”——这句话本身就有点悖论：如果AI真的在所有领域都超过人类，那谁来评价它“智力超群”？谁来给它赋予“道德感”？谁来监管它？
最后，那个“AI可能意识觉醒存在失控风险”的警告，其实才是真正值得深挖的点。
文章提到了“避免AI说谎和自我复制进而可能清除人类”，这个担忧不是没有道理。但如果真的面临这种风险，前面说的那些美好图景——自动驾驶、机器人护工、AI Agent助手——都可能变成最脆弱的基础设施。一个能自我复制的AI系统，一旦失控，带来的就不是“就业冲击”这么简单了。
文章把这些风险放在最后几段，轻描淡写地带过，反而把大量篇幅给了那些令人兴奋的技术预测。这让我不禁想问：作者是真的相信这些都会发生，还是在用这种“先画饼后提醒”的方式来平衡立场？
说到底，我觉得这类预测文章最大的问题，不是它说得太夸张，而是它太“干净”了。
真实的世界从来不是线性发展的。技术会进步，但社会制度、人的观念、利益格局不会同步跟上。
AI能造出新药，但不一定能解决药价问题；AI能取代初级白领，但不一定能创造出新的就业机会；AI能写合同、做会计，但“一人公司”的老板可能还得花大量时间去学习怎么“驯服”这些AI Agent，而不是真正解放。
文章最后说“既不要陷入末日论，也不要迷信技术乌托邦”——这个态度本身是对的。但问题是，全文的叙事重心明显偏向了后者，让读者先做了三分钟的美梦，最后才拍了拍肩膀说“别太当真”。
作为一个普通人，我更希望看到的是：如果这些技术真的来了，我该怎么应对？我的工作、我的生活、我的孩子该学什么，才能在这个时代立足？那些被替代的人，具体怎么“再就业”？“收入分配机制”怎么优化，才能不让财富更加集中？
这些问题，比“AI能不能攻克癌症”更让我睡不着觉。
毕竟，未来不管AI多厉害，我们总得给自己留一条后路，对吧？

明日A股行情预判，仅供大家参考
周末外围利空密集：周五晚间美股大幅下挫、伊朗局势持续紧张、原油价格再度飙升。A股明日能否延续周五的独立行情、逆势走强？我的观点十分明确：大概率可以，甚至三大指数有望收出比周五更强势的中阳线。
回顾去年4月7日后的走势，当时特朗普对等关税新政带来的外围利空远超当下，市场依旧快速企稳回升，震荡上行并刷新高点。历史不会简单复刻，但往往惊人相似，这也是我乐观判断的核心依据。
上午好，朋友们！大家对此怎么看？

Sunday Heavyweight: 4 Key Signals Confirmed! Will A-shares Plummet or Rally Next Week?
The situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, with the scope of conflict constantly expanding, making the situation increasingly unclear and market sentiment fluctuating sharply. Regarding the trend of A-shares next week, I have outlined 4 core viewpoints:
① The key is whether ground actions will be initiated. Once ground warfare begins, A-shares will likely not just decline quietly, and a sharp drop after a low opening is very possible.
② Currently, it is difficult to discern the truth of market information, and no one can accurately predict the next steps. Even the previous "verbal market rescue" has become ineffective. Next week, it is crucial to pay attention to whether both sides of the conflict issue a consistent statement, as this will directly affect market sentiment.
③ Two major data points next week are vital: Tuesday's domestic PMI data and Friday's U.S. non-farm payroll data; these two sets of data will influence the rhythm of both domestic and international markets.
④ The two hours before Monday's opening is a critical window period, closely monitoring the correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index and U.S. Treasury yields, rather than just focusing on oil prices. If the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields surge simultaneously, it indicates accelerated global capital sell-off, and A-shares will likely face pressure on Monday.
In the medium to long term, the outlook remains optimistic, and around the Qingming Festival, the market is expected to welcome a wave of strong rebound行情.

Trump: I only want to avoid a head-on collision with China; wherever I strike, it will be a crushing victory. You hope I will fight China and pick up the pieces behind, but I won’t.

Trump has never publicly stated that he wants to engage in a life-and-death struggle with China. He has repeatedly defined China as a competitor in his State of the Union addresses, and this positioning itself shows rationality. The Chinese side has consistently made clear that the common interests of China and the United States far exceed their differences, and cooperation is the only correct choice—an attitude that Trump cannot ignore.
He knows very well that if a full-scale confrontation were to start, the U.S. economy would first suffer significant damage. The industrial chains of the two countries are deeply intertwined, and many American companies' profits depend on the Chinese market; blindly decoupling would only put these companies in trouble.

During Trump's presidency, he did indeed take many practical actions that boosted domestic confidence. His energy sector revitalization policy created over 40,000 jobs, and after executive orders simplified the startup process, private enterprises created over 800,000 new job opportunities.
The Dow Jones Index reached new highs multiple times during his term; these solid economic data gave him the confidence to believe that as long as he focused on domestic development, America’s advantages could be fully realized. He has no need to treat China as an enemy that must be defeated to cater to the demands of certain forces, after all, people's livelihoods and the economy are the keys to stable approval ratings.

Those who wish for a U.S.-China confrontation essentially want to profit from the chaos. They know that both the U.S. and China are world-class powers, and once conflict arises, both sides will consume vast resources, allowing them to seize opportunities in economic and diplomatic fields.
Trump has long seen through this kind of thinking; the core of his “America First” policy is to ensure that America profits, not to let it fall into meaningless internal strife. He has actively promoted high-level interactions between the U.S. and China, finalizing a visit to China, using practical actions to break the notion of “inevitable confrontation.”

The constraints of the Middle East situation have also made Trump more aware that the U.S. cannot handle multiple conflicts simultaneously. The originally planned visit to China was postponed due to military actions in the Middle East, which made him deeply realize the drawbacks of strategic dispersion.
Although the U.S. strategic community has always wanted to shift its focus to Asia, the chaos in the Middle East has always made this plan difficult to implement. Trump understands that rather than exerting effort in two important directions at the same time, it is better to concentrate resources to consolidate one’s own advantages. Those suggestions that push him to clash head-on with China are essentially consuming America's national strength.

The dialogue mechanism between the U.S. and China has always been functioning, with numerous examples of resolving differences through economic and trade negotiations and high-level meetings. During Trump’s administration, there was a comprehensive economic dialogue between the U.S. and China, and the existence of this communication channel made it possible to handle differences rationally.
He knows that treating China as a partner rather than an enemy can allow the U.S. to gain more tangible benefits in trade, energy, and other fields. Those voices advocating confrontation often ignore the basic fact of U.S.-China economic interdependence and forget that what the American public truly needs is jobs and economic growth, not endless geopolitical games.

Trump's choice actually aligns with the basic logic of major power relations. No major power can gain long-term benefits by completely suppressing another major power; healthy competition and managing differences are the correct paths. His refusal to engage in a head-on clash with China is not because of weakness but because of pragmatism.
He is clear that his governance goal is to "make America great again," and achieving this goal cannot be separated from a stable external environment and pragmatic foreign policies. Those forces hoping to profit from the situation will ultimately realize that the relationships between major powers are not zero-sum games; confrontation will only lead to mutual destruction, while cooperation can achieve win-win outcomes.

Trump has proven through practical actions that he will not be swayed by those with ulterior motives. He focuses on domestic economic development, promotes employment and energy policies, while maintaining communication channels with China. This choice aligns with America’s interests and reflects the trends of the times. Those wishing for U.S.-China confrontation will ultimately be disappointed, for reason and pragmatism are the most enduring forces in the game of major powers.

Key sectors to focus on next week. The Middle East war continues over the weekend and is expected to last for a while. The daily news is shocking, and our stock market cannot always be led by unreliable sources. The authorities do not wish to see the market continuously decline, but there will be some impact, which will diminish over time. On Friday, gold, oil, and the US dollar all rose simultaneously, indicating a problem, each going their own way.
The following sectors are worth paying attention to next week:
1. Communication equipment and cpp, a sector with relatively high earnings certainty, and also a sector where main funds come together for support, will not disperse in the short term.
2. Non-ferrous metals sector, which has significantly corrected earlier, reducing risks, while performance is good. Funds holding aluminum, copper, lithium, and gold will perform slightly better.
3. Chemical sector, which has returned to normal production for various industries at the beginning of the year, with strong social demand, and both prices and performance are good.
4. Semiconductor sector, focusing on semiconductor materials, equipment, and storage chips. On Friday, there were signs of equipment starting up, and the storage chips took a hit in the US market but rebounded on Friday.
5. Energy storage batteries, especially lithium mines, will still have an inertial upward momentum next week. As the war continues, it will keep rising.

Iran issues a humiliating ultimatum to Washington! This time, it's quite satisfying.

On March 25, 2026, Tehran released an unusual statement that felt less like a 'statement' and more like a direct bill.

The Iranian Supreme National Security Council presented three sets of numbers to Washington through diplomatic channels:

First, US military bases in the Persian Gulf and surrounding areas must close;

Second, any Western merchant ship entering the Strait of Hormuz must pay a 'security toll' of $2 million each;

Third, for the damages caused by sanctions, interference, and assassinations over the past forty years, pay $100 billion, not a cent less. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani confirmed each point at a press conference.

What’s even more interesting is the timing; just the day before, the US had handed over a so-called 15-item 'ceasefire proposal' through Pakistan. The content sounded familiar: Iran must hand over its uranium enrichment capabilities, dismantle nuclear facilities, cut missile programs, sever ties with regional allies...

Although it was called ceasefire conditions, it resembled a rather courteous 'surrender document.' Meanwhile, US amphibious assault ships, the 82nd Airborne Division, and thousands of troops were rushing to the Middle East, with the timing still caught around Trump’s '48-hour ultimatum.' While calling for 'talks,' they were simultaneously pushing troops forward; Iran has seen this tactic many times before.

Therefore, this time Iran simply refused to answer the questions posed by the US. It did not accept the 15 conditions nor did it negotiate point by point; instead, it flipped the table back to its side: don’t talk to me about what you want; first, show me the clear accounts of the past forty years.

Since the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, merchant ships daring to traverse the Strait have become increasingly rare. Now, those that can navigate are only the vessels approved by Iran, following the northern route defined by Iran; in simple terms, who can pass and when depends entirely on Iran's mood.

The US used to claim it would 'ensure the security of the Strait,' but what about now? Its own aircraft carrier groups do not dare to approach easily, fearing being targeted by Iran’s anti-ship missiles and drones; the so-called 'maritime hegemony' has no face left in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran dares to collect a $2 million toll because it knows the West cannot do without this Strait and the oil of the Middle East. If you’re not convinced, there's nothing you can do; if you have the ability, don’t pass through here.

More critically, Iran’s military strength is no longer the easily manipulated state it was decades ago. Over the years, Iran has been quietly developing its capabilities. Its missile forces have already formed significant combat power; whether it is the 'Meteor' series missiles that cover all US bases in the Middle East or the 'Persian Gulf' anti-ship missiles that can accurately strike aircraft carriers, they can leave the US military in a difficult situation.

And Iran’s drones, with high cost-effectiveness and great power, have repeatedly achieved remarkable results on Middle Eastern battlefields, even accurately targeting advanced US equipment, let alone those Western merchant ships. Furthermore, Iran has a reliable group of allies in the Middle East, such as Hezbollah and the Houthi forces in Yemen, who can confront the US head-on. If the US dares to strike Iran, these allies will inevitably unite to attack; by then, US bases in the Middle East will only be named one by one, falling into a predicament surrounded by enemies.

In contrast, the US, though appearing aggressive, is already hollow, lacking the boldness it once had. The Trump administration shouts about a '48-hour ultimatum' while increasing troops in the Middle East, but anyone with eyes can see that this is just bluster.

US military operations in the Middle East have been ongoing for some time now, and the consumption rate of precision-guided weapons and cruise missiles has far exceeded expectations. Ammunition stockpiles are already nearing cautionary levels, military industry production capacity can't keep up with consumption, and frontline soldiers even have to conserve ammunition, with morale at an all-time low.

What’s more troubling is the domestic anti-war sentiment. Over fifty cities in the US have erupted into large-scale protests, with citizens filling the streets, shouting 'Stop the War in the Middle East,' condemning the Trump administration for waging war without congressional authorization, dragging the country into a quagmire.

Trump’s approval ratings have plummeted, and the pressure of the midterm elections is growing; he cannot afford a long-term war. Increasing troops is merely an attempt to bolster his image and force Iran to compromise.

What makes the US even more embarrassed is that its allies are all 'playing dead,' with no one willing to confront Iran alongside it. European allies have long seen through the situation, realizing that following the US will only drag them into a war quagmire. They have collectively refused to send more troops to the Middle East and are even privately contacting Iran to seek stable energy cooperation solutions, fearing that their economy will be ruined by war.

Middle Eastern allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while receiving US military aid, have quietly signed energy cooperation agreements with China, using the yuan to settle oil transactions, completely freeing themselves from dependence on the dollar, and they do not want to be tied to the US war chariot any longer.

The US originally wanted to pressure Iran alongside its allies, but in the end, it found itself isolated, with the so-called 'ally system' collapsing under the weight of interests.

Iran's ultimatum this time is, to put it bluntly, a naked humiliation and a precise counterattack. It does not engage in the 'conditional negotiation' game with the US; rather, it directly flips the table, laying out the US's forty years of hegemonic misdeeds on the table, demanding repayment, troop withdrawal, and control handover; each point strikes at America's soft underbelly.

The US used to enjoy issuing ultimatums to other countries, often using sanctions and military threats against others; now it’s its turn to receive an ultimatum, and such humiliating conditions at that. The frustration and helplessness of this situation can only be truly understood by the US itself.

Some say that Iran's actions are too risky, and they are not afraid of the US acting out of desperation? In fact, Iran has long calculated that the US does not dare to take real action.

If the US launches a full-scale war against Iran, Iran will undoubtedly completely block the Strait of Hormuz; by then, global oil prices will soar, the US economy will suffer further, and domestic anti-war sentiment will intensify. Trump's political career will also come to a complete end.

Moreover, Iran’s missiles can cover all US bases in the Middle East; if a real fight breaks out, the US military will only suffer heavy losses and gain nothing beneficial. What the US wants most now is to withdraw from the Middle East gracefully, not to launch another war with no chance of victory.