Web3天禄

Release the position | Break even | Increase the position
Short-term trading, swing trading, long-term holding large amounts of Bitcoin + ETH
Binance chat room: tianlu18

周日晚间｜操作思路
周末这两天，行情基本是弱势横盘，节奏和预期一致——没量、没波动，走得很磨人。
大饼目前处于下跌后的低位震荡，很多人一看跌多了就想抄底做多，但要记住一点：
这不是反转，只是修复，别逆势乱来。
从小时线看，价格上去就被打下来，连续出现长上影线，上方抛压明显，反弹力度有限，多次试探都站不稳，目前还不具备反转条件。
再加上消息面不稳定，外部环境偏空，市场情绪仍较为谨慎。
整体来看，短线依旧维持反弹做空的节奏。
当前BTC策略：
66,800–68,000 区间分批做空
目标依次看 66,000 → 64,000 → 63,500
一句话总结：
别急着抄底，等反弹再空，顺势而为才是关键。$BTC
#美国“无王”抗议
#比特币ETF价格战
#全球市场波动
#摩根士丹利比特币现货ETF

Many people say that Huang Mao sways back and forth, jumping around repeatedly, but if you really treat him like a fool, then that's where the real problem lies.
A businessman who can scale the family business to this level is essentially a top-tier player in the game. Most people in the market think he is "stupid" simply because you can't understand the game he's playing.
If you can't read a person, don't force a guess. Just focus on the results — keeping an eye on oil prices is more reliable than listening to a hundred pieces of news.
How oil prices move is likely how the real situation will unfold. Everything else is just noise.
$BTC $ETH
#美国“无王”抗议
#比特币ETF价格战
#全球市场波动
#特朗普希望尽快结束对伊朗战争

When the mindset is restless, it's easy to get stuck in whatever you do.
Less overthinking, more settling down will actually help you find a way out more easily.
Those who are truly willing to put in the effort are welcome to start together. Step by step, we will steadily bring up the rhythm.
Don't spend all your time questioning others, that won't help you at all.
Those who ultimately find their way out have gone through countless nights and days, and the efforts and costs they paid, you might not see at all.
The market will not favor anyone; it gives you opportunities and also lessons, the key is how you face it.
Instead of being clever, it's better to stabilize your mindset first,
Honestly execute, and the results will naturally improve little by little. $BTC $ETH #美国“无王”抗议 #比特币ETF价格战 #全球市场波动 #特朗普再挺比特币

This week has been all about a bearish outlook, and I made it very clear in advance.
Bitcoin dropped from 72000 all the way to 65500,
I laid out and reminded you of every wave in between in advance.
While you were still hesitating, I kept saying: hold onto your short positions, don't panic.
This wave was not based on luck, but on precise control of the trend.
When I say I will take everyone to profit, I truly mean it and have never made an empty promise. $BTC #The 'No King' protest in the U.S.

This month's final battle has performed relatively well.
Tianlu provided layout suggestions in advance on the 24th—short selling Bitcoin decisively at the 72000 line, looking down to 65500, and ultimately reaching the target smoothly, gaining about 6500 points of space. Meanwhile, Yitai also laid out a long short at 2180 during the same period, harvesting about 200 points of profit.
The rapid decline in the past few days was not unexpected, but rather a realization of previous judgments. This round of long-term operations, from early layout to final exit, was relatively smooth, directly achieving a large-scale space of 6500 points, and the conclusion was quite smooth.
The key to long-term trading has never been how precise the entry point is, but whether one can hold on. If you can't hold on, even the best entry points are difficult to realize profits; if you can hold on, the market will naturally bring returns.
This wave of operations belongs to those who are patient and truly follow the trend. The next round of the market is still on the way. $BTC #美国“无王”抗议

Sunday Operation Strategy
Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating around 66,500, with an intraday high rebound to 67,196 before encountering resistance and falling back to 65,949. There is evident selling pressure above, and the short-term remains in a weak fluctuation structure, with rebounds mostly for technical repair, not reversal signals.
Today's Key Ranges
Resistance Above:
First Resistance: 66,800 — 67,200
Strong Resistance: 67,500 — 68,000
Support Below:
First Support: 66,200 — 65,950
Strong Support: 65,500 — 65,000
Operation Strategy: Focus on shorting high and longing low
Short on Rebound: If the price rebounds to 66,800—67,200, and there is insufficient upward momentum with signs of stagnation, light positions can be laid out for short orders.
The initial target is 66,200—65,950, and if it breaks below, the trend will look towards 65,500.
Stop loss reference is above 67,300.
Long on Pullback: If the price pulls back to 66,200—65,950 without breaking, and there are signs of stopping the decline, light positions can be taken for a short-term long.
The target looks towards above 66,800, and if strong, it can test 67,200.
Stop loss reference is below 65,800.
Key Trend Points
Bullish Signal: Effectively stabilizing above 67,200 gives a chance for a short-term continuation to 67,500—68,000.
Bearish Signal: Falling below 65,950 means continuation of shorts, and attention should be paid to the support at 65,500—65,000. $BTC #全球市场波动

Talking more is useless, just look at the picture.
The market always rewards those who have a proper understanding.
What has been gained this time is the realization of that understanding; what has not been gained is the tuition fee for that understanding.
The next ticket is on the way, whether to get on the bus is up to you to decide.
$BTC #BTC行情

Short when you see an opportunity, with a mind free of worries.
Position reflects attitude, time is an ally. $BTC

Top Trading Insights｜Market Explodes in Despair, Dies in Madness
The cruelest truth of the market:
At the moment when everyone collapses, despairs, cuts losses, and gives up—
A big market is brewing on the eve.


A true story
Last April, the trade war reached its peak.
The entire network was bearish, panic spread.
A friend of mine who had just entered the circle, holding chips, was restless.
I repeatedly told him: Hold on, don’t move. This is a typical emotional bottom.
He listened, but couldn't do it.
He turned off his phone, booked a flight, and went traveling.
Completely escaped, out of sight, out of mind.
Three months later, he returned, opened his account—
He missed out.
He perfectly missed the most violent main rising wave in two years.
Millions in profits were originally in his account,
Now, they are just numbers belonging to others.
He hasn't recovered since.


The Deadly Pitfall of 99% Retail Investors
They can endure small losses and remain immobilized.
But they can’t withstand the volatility and start doubting life.
They can analyze things clearly.
Yet they hesitate to execute.
They can always find reasons to stay out of the market.
However, they can never hold onto big opportunities.
They always exit before the market starts.
They always miss out in the main rising wave.
They are very "smart".
They study macroeconomics, draw lines, watch funds, and avoid risks.
Yet, they can’t make big money.


A phrase etched in the mind
I would rather be a "fool" who adheres to the rules and quietly makes a fortune,
Than be a calculating person who always misses out and remains poor.
The market never rewards the smart people.
The market only rewards—
Those who can endure.


At your most desperate moment, did you cut losses or add positions? Let’s discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH

Encrypted Breakfast | March 27
Macro Market
The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower under pressure, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recording their largest single-day declines since the U.S.-Iran conflict on February 28. The Dow fell by 1%, the S&P 500 by 1.7%, and the Nasdaq by 2.38%. Tesla dropped over 3%, and Nvidia fell by 4%.
Expectations of a ceasefire in the Middle East coexist with the reality of conflict, and the risk of crude oil supply remains unresolved. Influenced by news about Trump, WTI crude oil once plunged nearly $5 after hours before quickly rebounding, closing up 2.64% at $94.12 per barrel; Brent crude closed up 2.88% at $101.19 per barrel.
Turkey sold 22 tons of gold in a single week, marking the largest weekly decline since 2018.


Policies and Geopolitics
Trump stated that at the request of the Iranian government, the strike on Iranian energy facilities will be postponed by 10 days to April 6, with negotiations between both sides progressing smoothly. Iranian officials denied ever making such a request.
The U.S. White House approved the review of a proposal to include cryptocurrencies in 401(k) retirement plans. Freddie Mac has accepted crypto assets as collateral for the first time, accelerating the tokenization of real assets, which is beneficial for Bitcoin and stablecoins.


Cryptocurrency Market
Circle's stock price plummeted by 20% due to a stablecoin regulatory draft, with the new rules restricting passive income, interpreted by the market as a significant negative.
Binance launched the public beta of its AI Pro trading tool, integrating AI market analysis and automated execution.
Progress in the Hong Kong JPEX fraud case: police have arrested 80 individuals and frozen assets of approximately 228 million HKD.


Institutional Dynamics
SpaceX's IPO is expected to raise between $40 billion and $80 billion, planning to offer favorable treatment to investors from Musk's other companies, with retail quotas reaching three times the usual. An investor meeting will be held after Easter.
Anthropic is considering an IPO as early as October and has had preliminary discussions with multiple investment banks, potentially raising over $60 billion.
Michael Saylor: The next phase of the cryptocurrency industry will be digital credit, and if a product with a Sharpe ratio of 4 is created, it should be included in every portfolio.


Bitcoin Market Analysis
Bitcoin has fallen below $70,000, but despite the significant drop in U.S. stocks, it has shown resilience and has not continued to decline.
Currently, it is in a phase of oscillation and adjustment, with a real rebound requiring the substantial end of the war—an announcement jointly made by the U.S. and Iran; relying solely on Trump's unilateral statements is unlikely to drive the market.
In the 4-hour timeframe, attention should be paid to whether it can return above $72,000 this week. If it can recover, there is still upward momentum in the short term; otherwise, it will maintain a weak oscillation.
#特朗普希望尽快结束对伊朗战争

March 27 Bitcoin Trading Strategy
Current Situation
Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $69,000, with a trading range between $68,800 and $69,200. After previously rising above $70,000 but failing to maintain that level, it has fallen back, indicating that there is still selling pressure above; support is being provided around $68,000, and overall it is in a phase of oscillation recovery after a high pullback.
Currently, it is neither a strong trending market nor a straightforward pullback, but rather a tug-of-war consolidation after a high pullback. At this point, chasing long positions can lead to being trapped, and short positions also need to wait for a suitable rebound.
Key Price Levels
Resistance Above: $69,500—$70,000
$70,500—$71,200
Support Below: $68,500—$68,000
$67,500—$66,800
Trading Strategy
Short Position Strategy—If there is a rebound to the $69,500—$70,000 area, and signs of weakness in the upward movement appear, one could consider lightly entering a short position. The first target is $68,500—$68,000; if it breaks below, then watch around $67,500.
Long Position Strategy—If there is a pullback to $68,500—$68,000 without breaking it, and signs of stabilization appear, one could bet on a short-term long position, targeting a rebound above $69,500. $BTC #特朗普希望尽快结束对伊朗战争

3.26 Big Pie Evening Thoughts: Mainly Long at Lower Levels
In the evening session, Big Pie stabilized and rebounded after falling to the 69500 line, repeatedly testing without breaking through, with strong support still evident below. Currently, the price has returned to near MA7 and MA30, with short-term moving averages starting to level off, showing signs of gradually turning stronger. The BOLL middle track is oscillating repeatedly; once stabilized, there is still room for testing the upper middle track. The MACD bearish momentum continues to shrink, with both lines turning upwards from a low position, indicating a clear recovery rhythm in the short term, with the market more inclined towards oscillating upwards for recovery.
Big Pie: Long near 69800
Target: 71500-73000
Overall, it remains an oscillating structure; manage positions well in operations, do not chase highs or cut losses, and patiently wait for pullbacks to re-enter, following the rhythm to capture the wave. Once the market breaks through 71000 with increased volume, the space above will further open up. $BTC #特朗普希望尽快结束对伊朗战争

Morning strategy perfectly executed, making over 2000 points in profit. With strong execution, making money is just that simple $BTC # Trump hopes to end the war with Iran as soon as possible.

Morning Short Strategy Precisely Realized
BTC Captured 1800 Points of Volatility Space
Core Logic: Follow the Trend, Not Subjective Speculation
The market maintains a weak oscillating structure, and shorting is the only choice that aligns with the trend. Do not predict, just follow - this is the survival rule through bull and bear markets.
The market is always right. When your viewpoint conflicts with the trend, the only thing that can be wrong is you. Let go of your obsessions, follow the trend, and profits will naturally come. $BTC #特朗普称对伊战争已胜利

Thursday Morning Strategy
Market Review
BTC fell from a high of 71,999 at midnight, rebounding to around 71,300 after touching a low of 70,531, with a total fluctuation of about 1,500 points throughout the day. ETH weakened in sync, and after a slight correction, it still operates weak overall.
Core Judgment: The rebound strength is limited, and the selling pressure above is obvious. It is not advisable to chase long positions in the short term; continue to think in the direction of shorting during the rebound.
Operation Plan
BTC: Short in the range of 71,500—72,000, targeting around 70,000
ETH: Short in the range of 2,170—2,200, targeting 2,150—2,130
Core Principle: Do not chase after rising prices; wait for the rebound to reach the pressure zone before laying out strategies, and operate in the direction of the trend for more stability. $ETH #币安人生

The current market trading volume continues to shrink, with a significant decline in capital participation, and overall sentiment is weak. In the context of a lack of effective driving force from incremental capital, the short-term market is more inclined to operate in a range-bound manner, with a low probability of a one-sided trend.
Based on the current market structure and liquidity distribution, it is advisable to prioritize short positions at high levels, to guard against the risk of rebounds caused by sudden increases in capital.
Short position suggestions:
Entry range: 72300 – 72600 short
First target: 70366
Second target: 69500$BTC #特朗普称对伊战争已胜利

Yesterday was a day of turbulence, and today continues with this back-and-forth market. The cryptocurrency world is indeed exhausting.
BTC has been oscillating around $70,000-72,000, testing support at times and facing resistance at others. It's hard to grasp high sell-low buy strategies; holding onto it feels wobbly, and staying out of the market makes one fear missing a rebound—many of my brothers are stuck in this 'dilemma' situation.
Brothers who are trapped shouldn't feel alone; this kind of high-level box oscillation is too common during the consolidation phase of a bull market.
The key is not to rush to 'immediately break free' but to stabilize your mindset first, avoiding emotional leverage or frequent switching.
While we have this little free time, how many brothers are still trapped?
How about sitting down and chatting:
Are you trapped in BTC, ETH, or altcoins/Memes? What was your cost approximately? What is your holding ratio?
Perhaps an unintended reminder could help you see clearly and find a way out of the current predicament. $BTC #国际油价下跌

Currently, there is a short-selling opportunity near 71200 for Bitcoin, consider a light position to short.
For every drop of about 1000 points, you can moderately increase your position.
Currently, the bullish rebound is relatively weak, and there is still selling pressure above. Follow the trend and operate in the direction of the bears, as the risk is relatively controllable. If the position is stable during this wave, there is a chance to gradually reap profits. $BTC #国际油价下跌