沧楠晟

Cash, gold, or houses, which is the most valuable?
​​1. Cash
Safe, but will definitely depreciate over the long term.
Suitable for: emergency funds, money needed in the short term.
​​2. Gold
A global hard currency, resistant to risks and inflation.
Does not generate interest, difficult to get rich quickly, suitable as an asset "ballast."
​​3. Houses
Once the most valuable, now severely differentiated.
High-quality properties in core cities can still withstand inflation, while weak locations may stagnate or decline.
​​✅ The truly reliable answers:
​​- Short-term money → Cash
​​- Fear of risk and seeking stability → Gold
​​- Long-term residence + value preservation → Good houses
​​There is no absolute most valuable asset, only the configuration that suits you best. #全球市场波动 #美国“无王”抗议 $ETH
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#美国“无王”抗议 The beautiful scenery of the United States looks quite impressive, 8 million looks like a lot, but unfortunately, they are all North American cowards. In a few days, it will be time to eat and drink again, continuing to work hard without any awakening. If this were in ancient times, let alone 8 million, even 800 would dare to take action.

The United States has once again erupted in "No Kings" protests against President Trump and his policies. Organizers say that over 8 million participants are estimated, making it possibly the largest ever.

ABC News reported that the latest round of "No Kings" protests swept across more than 3,000 cities and towns in the United States on Saturday (March 28). Demonstrators oppose the "ongoing chaos" created by the Trump administration.

This marks the third "No Kings" protest held by Americans since Trump took office. From the East Coast to the West Coast, streets are packed with marchers. People hold homemade signs, shouting loudly, protesting Trump’s policies, actions, and statements.

This may be the largest scale to date. Last October's hi hui, organizers claimed over 7 million participated, while this time it is estimated to exceed 8 million. $ETH
$BTC

Unexpected events over the weekend, Iran has started bombing aluminum plants in the Middle East. The two attacked aluminum plants are quite large, with Emirates Global Aluminum accounting for 4% of global production capacity and Bahrain Aluminum accounting for 2.2%, together representing over 6% of global aluminum supply!

This issue is quite serious because production stoppage and bombing are two different concepts. Production stoppage can be resumed in the short term, but if bombed, even after the war ends, resuming production will take a long time. Daofeng checked, and aluminum products exported from the Middle East account for about 9.2%–10% of global supply, which will inevitably cause some impact on the international supply chain.

In short, the Strait of Hormuz is not only the throat of oil and natural gas; 30% of global nitrogen, chemical fertilizers, and 12% of electrolytic aluminum also pass through here! If it is blocked for a long time, "a single hair might move the whole body," affecting not just industry but also potentially skyrocketing prices for food and agricultural products!

Generally speaking, the transmission logic of rising bulk commodities is: gold → non-ferrous → energy and chemicals → agricultural products. Originally, the focus was on chemicals and fertilizers, but now that the aluminum plants of the Middle Eastern princes have been attacked one after another, if supply decreases, metal prices will soar! In the second half of the year, food (seed industry) and agricultural product (fertilizers and pesticides) prices may rise rapidly, and opportunities in related sectors can be monitored. #比特币ETF价格战 #摩根士丹利比特币现货ETF $ETH
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Recently, the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked, and the Strait of Oman may also be blocked in the future. Starting from April 1, Russia announced a ban on gasoline exports, adding fuel to the already high crude oil prices. Many financial bloggers predict that gold will further decline, and the storyline of exchanging gold for liquidity will continue. This logic seems reasonable at first glance, but it should be noted that on Friday night, gold rebounded from the bottom and was pulled up along with crude oil. On Saturday and Sunday, the gold in the dark market slightly fell, while the crude oil price in the dark market slightly increased. The upcoming showdown in the Strait of Hormuz is the main event; regardless of the outcome, it will be favorable for gold. #美国“无王”抗议 #全球市场波动 $ETH
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Trump said the 31st is the most important day in life, probably attack a bit these two days and then unilaterally announce victory.
No live broadcast next week, nothing to say if there are no sales. It's just about choosing strong sectors to operate or waiting for a rebound in those weak ones for eight to eleven days. ​$COLLECT
#美国“无王”抗议 #特朗普再挺比特币 $ETH
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Everyone predicts a big drop in the stock market tomorrow, Monday, and I find it puzzling! China has such strong military capabilities, and various technological breakthroughs are happening in different fields! Foreign countries are at war, and resources are increasing in price; the Chinese stock market should be a safe haven, it should be soaring instead! Those young lords from the Middle East shouldn't be directing their funds to Hong Kong stocks and A-shares? Shouldn't our assets appreciate? Shouldn't the Shanghai Composite Index reach 6000 points this year? What is going on? Why is the Chinese economy lacking confidence? #美国“无王”抗议 #比特币ETF价格战 $ETH
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【The Understanding King is a bit dangerous】#比特币ETF价格战
Overall, the war situation continues to escalate, with the US-Israel coalition bombing power plants and steel mills; the Houthi forces launched missiles at Israel, opening a second front.

The US Marine Corps has also gradually arrived in the Middle East, and reports of a "ground war in a matter of weeks" have emerged. The Iranian Speaker has warned that the Iranian armed forces are waiting for a ground attack by the US military and will "punish" its regional allies!

However, there is also good news: 1. Thailand and Malaysia have stated that they have reached an agreement with Iran to pass through the Strait of Hormuz; 2. Vance has stated that "the US has no intention of staying in Iran and will withdraw soon"!

In general, the situation in the Middle East remains murky and hard to see clearly. However, Trump's situation is becoming increasingly passive. On one hand, nationwide protests against the Trump administration have erupted in the United States, with over 9 million participants; on the other hand, surveys show that Trump's approval rating has plummeted to 36%, a historic low since his return to the White House.

The Understanding King has made two misjudgments in attacking Iran: first, thinking Iran is the next Venezuela; second, believing the Iranian regime would collapse with one blow. Various signs indicate that the Trump administration is paying a price for this "ill-prepared" war. That is, the timing of the end of the war is no longer entirely in the hands of the US.

However, despite domestic opposition in the US, Vice President Vance is singing a different tune. But given Trump's character, if he believes that the midterm elections are truly hopeless, he might instead go all in! Launching a large-scale ground war to seek a "turnaround," so in the next week or two, we should be wary of a full-scale escalation of the war!

This war has three possible outcomes: one is that the US successfully seizes the island and controls the strait, defeating Iran; the second is that they successfully seize the island but face bombings from Iran, leading to a protracted war; the third is that the US fails to seize the island and quietly withdraws from the Middle East. Of course, there is also a possibility that Trump is playing a diversion, making everyone think the US military is seizing the island, but in fact, they are attacking Iran to seize nuclear materials, and once successful, they will leave, allowing the Understanding King to declare victory.

For big cakes, last Thursday, US stocks plummeted, and on Friday we had an independent performance; but on Friday, US stocks continued to fall. Will big cakes be able to be independent again next week! $BTC
$ETH
#美国“无王”抗议

“Stagflation is like a person having a cold (economic stagnation) while also having a high fever (inflation).

If it's just a cold, drinking some hot water (interest rate cuts) will suffice; if it's just a fever, covering up with a blanket and sweating it out (interest rate hikes) will do. But stagflation means that as soon as you cover up with a blanket (interest rate hikes), your body can't handle the weakness of the cold; as soon as you drink hot water (interest rate cuts), the high fever gets worse.

Logically, stagflation is the chronic form of recession. ​#美国“无王”抗议 #全球市场波动 $ETH
#沧楠晟

I believe everyone saw the news on Friday about the Strait being closed and Big Mao also banning oil sales.

As the conflict escalates, institutions have been working overtime over the weekend to revise their research reports, feeling like cursing the old man, with changes happening every day, causing people to be anxious.

Now back to the point.

Recently, oil prices and the stock market have been fluctuating back and forth. To put it bluntly, it’s a reality of oil shortages and Trump’s talk of negotiations being contradictory.

On one side, the Strait is blocked, oil cannot be shipped out, and there really is a global oil shortage.

On the other side, Trump is making daily statements about negotiations, trying to keep oil prices from rising with his words.

However, on Friday, Iran's tough stance and the prolonged duration of the war situation were noted.

Institutions predict that starting next week, oil prices will break out of the range controlled by Trump’s words and may rise.

The conflict will soon reach 5 weeks, and global oil reserves are dwindling.

The reality of oil shortages will overshadow the expectations expressed verbally; oil prices are determined by supply and demand and may not be suppressed by news.

Over the weekend, the failure to reach an agreement between the U.S. and Iran has been confirmed, and U.S. troops are still increasing in preparation for ground operations. The situation will only drag on longer, and it is unlikely that the Strait will be reopened soon.

Historically, conflicts that have dragged on for over a month become increasingly difficult to stop, especially as more countries get involved. #美国“无王”抗议 #全球市场波动 $ETH
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$PLAY can be emptied
Entry Timing: If the price continues to surge and tests 0.06450 (24h high point), it will be blocked and fall back.
​Take Profit: Targeting the range of 0.0550 - 0.0560.
​Stop Loss: Strictly set above 0.0650.
​Core Logic: Using the high funding rate's "short squeeze" market to speculate on a pullback, but be mentally prepared for potential liquidation/unable to withdraw (due to imminent delisting).

When is it appropriate to buy gold at the bottom?

Previously, every time international oil prices surged, gold was in a declining state. Especially since the changes in the Middle East situation, it has been quite unbelievable for everyone that the past safe-haven tool of gold suddenly became ineffective.

As the situation has become increasingly obvious, the decline in gold prices has been more intense. Just look at the New York gold futures, which dropped from a previous $5,500 to a low of $4,100 this time around. The strength of this decline is quite fierce.
 
I estimate that most people have not figured out this reasoning: why does a change in regional conditions lead to a significant drop in gold? The core reason is still a liquidity issue, meaning that in special periods, in order to obtain liquidity, gold is sold off to obtain local currency or foreign exchange.
 
Turkey is a typical example, as it reduced 6 tons in the week of March 13 and then reduced another 52.4 tons in the week of March 20, which impacted global gold prices.
 
I believe that if the Middle East situation continues, it may also trigger a sell-off of gold. In the future, as time goes on, in order to obtain liquidity, the sell-off of gold should not just involve Turkey alone; more economies will join in. From this perspective, the current gold price has reached $4,400, down $1,000 from the previous high. Is this position low enough?
 
I think we shouldn't define this matter too early; let the bullets fly a bit longer. Until the situation in the Middle East stabilizes completely, it's relatively difficult for gold to attract new buyers. In other words, even at the current $4,400, it is still hard to say that it is at a low position. We should observe the external environment more before making conclusions. Once the situation stabilizes completely, or calms down, we will then reassess the investment value of gold. $ETH
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#比特币ETF价格战 #全球市场波动

The Nasdaq can lag behind Bitcoin's movements and may also experience a period of trend divergence, but ultimately, the Nasdaq will certainly catch up to Bitcoin's rhythm. The market is currently very mild, and the main event is yet to come, everything is steady, and the best part is still ahead. ​$BTC
$ETH
#全球市场波动 #BTC行情

I remember that year when I entered the market with 100,000 in capital, full of confidence, thinking I would become one of the 10% who make money. In the first week, I earned 8,000, and I thought I had found a pattern; in the second week, I lost 12,000, and I began to feel anxious; in the third week, I heavily invested in a stock that was guaranteed to rise, but it hit the limit down for 5 consecutive days, and my account shrank from 100,000 to 57,000. At that moment, I truly understood what 'market education' meant for the first time.
I began to review my trades and counted 30 transactions: only 9 were profitable, while 21 were losses; on average, I made 2,000 each time I earned, but each loss was as high as 3,500. The data doesn't lie; I'm not just unlucky, it's a systematic error.
I tried to recover my losses by leveraging the remaining 57,000 to 150,000, thinking that as long as I catch one limit up, I could break even. But reality dealt me a second blow: in 3 days, I lost 43,000, leaving my account with only 14,000. That feeling wasn't just simple loss of money, but a combination of time, confidence, and dignity being shattered.
Later, I stopped trading for a full 60 days, spending 3 hours each day reviewing the trends of the past 100 stocks, recording candlesticks, trading volumes, and emotional cycles. I realized that in my previous purchases, 70% occurred at high points, while 80% of my sales were completed in panic.
Now my account has slowly recovered from 14,000 to 32,000; not much, but stable. I no longer pursue doubling my investment but aim for a 5% return each month. The stock market taught me the harshest lesson: losses are not accidental, but the sum of your perceptions.
100,000 to 14,000, and then to 32,000, this is not an upward curve, but a process of awakening. #比特币ETF价格战 #全球市场波动 $ETH
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Ah, this... Little Eight Baka actually wants to short crude oil in the international futures market

Really doesn't know how to die, international capital loves these fools who are dead shorts or dead longs; they are the best opponents

Wall Street is grinning, just waiting to feast on this big dish!

$SIREN
$ETH
#特朗普希望尽快结束对伊朗战争 #全球市场波动

【The key sentence】
Gold: "So good" that it pulls back, the logic instead strengthens, cherish the opportunity to pick someone up
Stagflation: Afraid of falling on the second floor, not afraid of falling on the first floor
US Fed: be more or not to be
A-shares: The world is in chaos, this place is uniquely good, the more it falls, the more bullish it looks
Midstream: Global "safety" anxiety, oil prices help clear, midstream must be strong ​
"You only need to get rich once, the rest is just about keeping it." This was Buffett's classic speech at the University of Florida's Business School in 1998.
No obscure theories, no fancy techniques, a simple sentence expresses the underlying logic of wealth.

90% of people cannot keep their wealth, not because they cannot earn, but because they are always going back to zero; not because of insufficient ability, but because of excessive greed.

Buffett candidly stated in his speech: Using the capital that sustains your life to gamble for illusory extra gains is the most nonsensical stupidity. This is especially true for ordinary people, who just accumulate their first pot of gold and then follow the trend to go all in, chasing hot spots and leveraging chaotic investments, ultimately returning to the starting point.

The truth about wealth is never about earning more and more, but about not losing it back.

The enemy of wealth is never poverty, but constantly starting over. Every radical risk, every blind cross-industry move interrupts the continuity of accumulation, wasting all efforts. #全球市场波动 #摩根士丹利比特币现货ETF $ETH $BTC

The 1970s vs Current Gold Price Trends
The Iranian Islamic Revolution in 1979 was the trigger for the second oil crisis, directly igniting severe turmoil in global energy, inflation, finance, and commodity markets, and was one of the key drivers of the major bull market in gold during the 1970s.

The consequence was an accelerated energy transition: Western countries began to vigorously develop nuclear power, natural gas, and energy-saving technologies to reduce dependence on Middle Eastern oil; Japanese automakers seized the global market with small energy-efficient cars, becoming winners in the crisis. Today, Chinese electric vehicles may also become winners in the crisis.
Oh, I’m talking about most people, excluding geniuses.
Because most people have unstable mindsets, find it difficult to make money, lack strong abilities, and have excessive desires.
So:
High volatility, do not touch.
Low volatility, light positions.
No volatility, heavy positions. For example, government bonds, savings, similar to the U.S. stock SG­OV.
You can also adjust your ratio as your profits increase.
You can also adjust your ratio as your knowledge and experience reserves increase.
You can adjust your ratio based on the cost-performance ratio of the market.
This is not fixed.
Yo. #全球市场波动 #摩根士丹利比特币现货ETF #特朗普希望尽快结束对伊朗战争 $ETH
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