XAUUSD黄金

#全球市场波动 Gold has opportunities every day
⚠️ Risk warning

Does not constitute investment advice. Gold trading is highly volatile and risky; strict risk control and rational decision-making are required to enter the market.

March 30 (Monday) Core analysis of gold market conditions

Main tone: Wide fluctuations, easy pullbacks after rises, bearish strategies
Core operating range: 4350 — 4550 USD/ounce
Core drivers: 20:30 U.S. February PCE inflation data (the biggest variable of the day)

Probability trend judgment

- High probability (65%): PCE data meets/ slightly exceeds expectations, fluctuates downwards, tests 4400-4370 support
- Secondary probability (25%): Data greatly favorable, rises to 4580-4600 and then faces pressure to pull back
- Low probability (10%): Data greatly unfavorable, breaks below 4400, dips to 4350-4300

Key levels

- Strong resistance: 4530-4550 (core pressure range of the day)
- Secondary resistance: 4500 (strong-weak dividing line)
- Secondary support: 4400-4420 (bull-bear lifeline)
- Strong support: 4350-4370 (strong support of the trend)

Core operational strategy

1. Core main strategy (priority execution)

- Direction: Focus on short positions, do not chase highs
- Entry: After a rebound to the 4520-4550 range and unable to hold above 4550
- Risk control: Stop loss above 4570; take profit at 4450 (half) → 4400-4420 (all out); if 4400 breaks, watch for 4370

2. Alternative strategy (conditional trigger)

- Direction: Ultra-short low long, do not catch the bottom
- Entry: Stabilizes after a pullback to the 4370-4400 range, does not break below 4370
- Risk control: Stop loss below 4350; take profit at 4450 (half) → 4500 (all out)

3. Special response to PCE data

- One hour before the data: Close short-term positions, do not hold positions betting on the data
- Significantly favorable: Do not chase long positions, after a rise to 4580-4600 face pressure, lightly test short positions
- Significantly unfavorable: Do not catch the bottom, after a rebound to 4420-4430 lightly follow short positions

Iron rules

1. Do not enter the market within 30 minutes of opening, observe first
2. Total position ≤ 20%, test with light positions
3. Must carry stop loss, individual stop loss ≤ 30 USD, never hold on to a position
4. Do not chase highs or lows, take profits when they arise!
$XAU

#黄金
1. This week's panorama: Plunge → Deep V rebound → High volatility
Core range (London gold spot): 4100 ~ 4620 USD/ounce
Overall tone of the week: Panic selling → Oversold recovery → Tug-of-war between bulls and bears, slightly bearish volatility

2. Daily market review (Volume and Price + Key signals)

1. Monday (3.23): Increased volume plunge, panic escape

- Price: 1040 → 926 RMB/gram (Shanghai gold); International 4500 → 4100 USD
- Volume and price: Record trading volume, increased volume breakdown, funds fleeing
- Signal: Bearish trend established, all lines trapped

2. Tuesday (3.24): Bottoming and rising, reduced volume stabilization

- Price: 956 → 977 RMB/gram; International 4100 → 4400 USD
- Volume and price: Shrinking trading volume, selling pressure exhausted, long lower shadow stops decline
- Signal: Oversold rebound, bears temporarily pause, recovery begins

3. Wednesday (3.25): Violent rebound, increased volume counterattack

- Price: 973 → 1024 RMB/gram; International 4400 → 4620 USD
- Volume and price: Increased trading volume, bullish counterattack, breakthrough 4600 strong pressure
- Signal: Oversold recovery climax, short-term bulls strong

4. Thursday (3.26): High surge and fall, reduced volume correction

- Price: 1019 → 982 RMB/gram; International 4620 → 4450 USD
- Volume and price: Decreased volume drop, 4600 pressure evident, bulls weak
- Signal: Rebound meets resistance, returns to weakness, slightly bearish

5. Friday (3.27): Narrow range volatility, reduced volume consolidation

- Price: 974 → 999 RMB/gram; International 4400 → 4470 USD
- Volume and price: Continued reduced volume, bulls and bears watching, fluctuations narrowing
- Signal: Low-level volatility, unclear direction, waiting for choice

3. Core volume and price rules of the week

1. Monday: Increased volume plunge (bears dominant) → Trend turns bearish
2. Tuesday: Reduced volume stops decline (selling pressure exhausted) → Oversold rebound
3. Wednesday: Increased volume rebound (bulls recovering) → Rebound peak
4. Thursday: Reduced volume fall (bulls weak) → Returns to weakness
5. Friday: Extremely reduced volume (bulls and bears watching) → Volatility waiting

Conclusion:
This week is a typical oversold recovery market after a sharp decline, overall still slightly bearish.
4600 USD (international)/1020 RMB (domestic) is strong pressure;
4300 USD (international)/950 RMB (domestic) is strong support.

4. Outlook for next week (brief)

- Main tone: Wide range volatility, slightly bearish
- Range: 4300 ~ 4600 USD
- Key: 4600 pressure, 4300 support, Federal Reserve news
$XAU

#国际油价下跌 Oil prices drop, gold is another opportunity!\n⚠️ Risk warning: The following content is for market reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Gold trading is highly volatile and risky, please make cautious decisions.\n \n1. Current (March 27 evening) latest status (as of 18:22)\n \n- London Gold Spot (XAU): 4426 USD/ounce, daily +0.49%\n- Range: 4374 ~ 4474 USD (broad fluctuations)\n- COMEX Gold Futures: 4456 USD/ounce, daily +1.06%\n- Volume and Price Characteristics:\n- Intraday: Gap down → Bottom testing → Volatility rebound\n- Trading volume: Significantly increased compared to yesterday, but is a corrective rebound after a major drop\n- Price: Rebound strength is weak, has not broken key resistance\n \n2. Tonight's (3.27 evening) trend analysis (volume price + news)\n \n1. Core drivers (bearish primarily)\n \n- Federal Reserve hawkish expectations:\n- Rate cut expectations have significantly cooled, June rate cut probability has sharply decreased\n- US Treasury yields and USD are strong, suppressing gold\n- Technical aspects (bearish dominant):\n- Long-term: Break downwards, bearish trend clear\n- Short-term: Weak rebound, difficult to sustain without volume\n- Volume and price signals:\n- Rebound with low volume/inadequate volume → Bullish confidence weak\n- Heavy selling pressure at high levels, significant pressure in the 4450–4500 range\n \n2. Evening trend judgment (bearish volatility)\n \n- Main tone: Weak volatility, rebound weak, prone to retreat\n- Resistance levels:\n- First resistance: 4450 USD (near daily high)\n- Strong resistance: 4500 USD (important psychological barrier)\n- Support levels:\n- First support: 4375 USD (daily low)\n- Strong support: 4300 USD (key defense line)\n \nConclusion:\nTonight, it is highly likely to fluctuate in the 4375–4450 range, with a rebound difficult to break through 4450, more likely to rise and fall back, biased downwards.\n \n3. Trading reference (brief)\n \n- Short-term: Bearish outlook\n- Rebound in the 4430–4450 range under pressure can be shorted\n- Stop loss: above 4470\n- Target: 4375 → 4300\n- Risk control:\n- Strict stop loss, light positions\n- Be cautious of sudden news from the Middle East and fluctuations in US data\n \n$XAU \n

#黄金 ⚠️ Risk Warning

The following analysis is based on the latest market conditions and volume at 09:30 on March 27 and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Latest Market Conditions (3.27)

- London Gold Spot: 4406 USD/oz, ±0% (sideways)
- New York Gold (Futures): 4421 USD/oz, +0.28%
- Gold T+D: 983.5 CNY/g, -1.88%
- Intraday: 4374 — 4410 USD, low-level volume contraction and fluctuation

2. Volume-Price Relationship (Today's Core)

1. After a significant drop yesterday, today shows volume contraction and stabilization
- Yesterday: volume breakout, capital flight (ETF outflows for 7 consecutive weeks)
- Today: transaction volume shrinks, selling pressure weakens
→ After excessive declines, weak recovery, bears take a break
2. Structural Judgment
- Daily: breaks below the 5/10-day moving average, medium-term turns bearish
- 4-hour: low-level consolidation, no rebound momentum
- Hourly: 4400 level narrow range oscillation

3. Today's Trend Judgment (3.27 All Day)

Main Tone: Low-level oscillation, weak rebound, bearish bias
Core Range: 4370 — 4450 USD

- High Probability (70%)
Intraday oscillation at 4390–4440, strong pressure at 4440–4450, hard to break.
- Secondary Probability (20%)
Unexpected positive news in the U.S. market → rebound 4450→4480, but difficult to sustain without volume.
- Low Probability (10%)
Break below 4370 → accelerate downward to 4330–4300.

4. Today's Key Levels

- Resistance
- First Resistance: 4440–4450 (strong pressure intraday)
- Second Resistance: 4480–4500
- Support
- First Support: 4390–4370 (today's watershed)
- Second Support: 4330–4300 (strong support)

5. Trading Ideas (Today)

- Do not catch the bottom, do not chase the rise: weak oscillation, high risk of baiting buyers
- Mainly short positions
Rebound at 4430–4450, light positions to short, stop loss at 4470, target 4390→4370
- Long Position Conditions (extremely cautious)
Pullback to 4370–4330 with increasing volume and stabilization, long lower shadow, then light positions for short-term long

6. Risk Control Points

- Today’s volume oscillation, narrowing volatility, light positions + strict stop loss
- No significant data in the evening, technical factors dominate
$XAU

#黄金
⚠️ Risk Warning

The following analysis is based on the latest market conditions and volume-price as of March 26, 19:25, and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Latest Market (3.26)

- London Gold Spot: 4447 USD/ounce, -1.12%
- New York Gold: 4471 USD/ounce, -2.49%
- Gold T+D: 989.31 CNY/gram, -1.96%
- Intraday: High 4543 → Low 4412, volume surge followed by a reduction in volume rebound

2. Volume-Price Relationship (Evening Core)

1. Afternoon volume surge and sharp decline, evening volume stabilization
- European session volume broke through 4500→4480→4412, panic funds fleeing
- U.S. session slight rebound 4412→4450, trading volume shrank, selling pressure weakened
→ Short-term over-sold, entering a weak oscillation recovery
2. Structural Judgment
- Daily: Broke below 5/10-day moving averages, short-term bearish
- 4-hour: Resistance at 4540 during rebound, bears in control
- Hourly: Low volume at lower levels, downward momentum fading

3. Tonight's Trend Judgment (3.26)

Main Tone: Weak oscillation, over-sold recovery, bearish bias
Core Range: 4410 — 4490 USD

- High Probability (70%)
Evening oscillation between 4430–4480, strong resistance at 4480–4490, difficult to rebound.
- Medium Probability (20%)
Initial jobless claims positive (>210,000) → rebound 4480→4500, but difficult to sustain without volume.
- Low Probability (10%)
Break below 4410 → accelerate down to 4380–4350.

4. Evening Key Levels

- Resistance
- First Resistance: 4480–4490 (strong intraday resistance)
- Second Resistance: 4500–4520
- Support
- First Support: 4410–4420 (evening watershed)
- Second Support: 4380–4350 (strong support)

5. Operational Thoughts (Evening)

- Do not bottom fish: High risk of over-sold rebound enticing buyers
- Focus on short positions
Rebound 4470–4490 with light positions, stop loss at 4510, target 4430→4410
- Conditions for Long (extremely cautious)
Pullback to 4410–4380 with volume stabilization and long lower shadow, then light positions for short-term long

6. Risk Control Points

- 20:30 Initial Jobless Claims are the biggest variable
- High volatility, repeated movements, light positions + strict stop-loss
$XAU

#特朗普缓和局势
⚠️ Risk Warning

The following analysis is based on the latest prices and volumes as of March 26, 09:30, and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Today's Latest Market (3.26)

- London Gold Spot: 4533 USD/ounce, +0.79%
- New York Gold (Futures): 4568 USD/ounce, -0.38%
- Gold T+D: 1009.86 CNY/gram, +0.07%
- Intraday Range: 4497 — 4543 USD

2. Core Characteristics of Price-Volume Relationship

1. External market fluctuations, internal market relatively strong
- International market: Highs followed by pullbacks, volume contraction, slight capital outflow
- Domestic market: Anti-fall, buying support, moderate trading volume
→ External weakness, internal strength differentiation, high-level fluctuations digested
2. Structural Judgment
- After a sharp rise yesterday, today's technical consolidation
- 4-hour: End of rebound wave, momentum weakening
- Daily: Still above the 5/10 day moving average, bullish but cautious

3. Today's Trend Judgment (3.26 All Day)

Main Tone: High-level fluctuations, range consolidation, slight bearish pullback
Core Range: 4490 — 4550 USD

- High Probability (70%)
Intraday 4500–4540 fluctuations, 4540–4550 resistance encountered, European and American markets weak, testing 4490–4480.
- Secondary Probability (20%)
Volume breakout at 4550 → Short-term surge to 4580, but difficult to sustain without volume.
- Low Probability (10%)
Breakdown below 4480 → Accelerated weakening, looking at 4450–4400.

4. Today's Key Levels

- Resistance
- First Resistance: 4540–4550 (strong intraday resistance)
- Second Resistance: 4580–4600
- Support
- First Support: 4500–4490 (intraday watershed)
- Second Support: 4480–4450 (strong support)

5. Trading Thoughts (Technical Reference)

- Do not chase long positions: volume contraction fluctuations, high risk of being lured into long positions
- Focus on short positions
Light positions shorting at 4530–4550, stop loss at 4570, target 4500→4480
- Conditions for going long (extremely cautious)
Rebound to 4490–4480 with volume stabilization and long lower shadow, then consider light short-term longs

6. Risk Control Points

- Today's fluctuations are repeated, volatility narrowing, light positions + strict stop loss
- Pay attention to the US initial jobless claims data tonight (20:30)

$XAU

#国际油价下跌 Oil prices have fallen, and the opportunity for gold has come again!
⚠️ Risk Warning

The following analysis is based solely on the latest prices and volume data from March 25 and does not constitute investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and strict risk control is required.

1. Latest Market Situation (March 25, 19:20)

- London Gold Spot: 4567.81 USD/ounce, intraday +0.48%
- Intraday Range: 4527.21 — 4602.04 USD
- New York Gold (Futures): 4599.6 USD/ounce, +3.73%
- Gold T+D: 1013.51 CNY/gram, +4.19%

2. Core Characteristics of Volume-Price Relationship

1. Morning volume surge followed by afternoon volume drop
- Asian session broke through 4550→4580→4600, trading volume doubled, significant capital inflow
- European session retreated from the 4602 high, trading volume shrank, capital took profits
→ Rebound momentum weakened, entering a high-level consolidation phase
2. Structural Judgment
- Belongs to a strong rebound after a sharp decline (pulled up from the low of 4306)
- 4-hour: end of the rebound wave, high points raised but momentum weakened
- Daily: recaptured the 5/10-day moving averages, short-term bullish dominance

3. Today's Trend Judgment (March 25, Remaining Time)

Main Tone: High-level consolidation, slightly strong adjustment, difficult to rise significantly
Core Range: 4530 — 4590 USD

- High Probability (70%)
The evening will fluctuate in the range of 4540–4580, heavy selling pressure above 4580, difficult to break the intraday new high.
- Secondary Probability (20%)
Break below 4530 → short-term weakness, testing 4500 support.
- Low Probability (10%)
Once again, a volume breakthrough above 4600 → rush to 4620–4630, but if there is no volume, it will definitely fall back.

4. Key Points (Evening)

- Resistance
- First Resistance: 4580–4600 (strong intraday resistance)
- Second Resistance: 4620–4630
- Support
- First Support: 4530–4540 (intraday watershed)
- Second Support: 4500 round number

5. Trading Ideas (Technical Reference)

- Do not chase highs: volume contraction and fluctuations, high risk of inducing bullish positions
- Focus on shorting
Lightly short at the rebound of 4570–4590, stop loss at 4610, target 4540→4500
- Conditions for Going Long (Extremely Cautious)
Wait for a pullback to the 4530–4500 range with increased volume and stabilization, and a long lower shadow before considering a light long position

6. Risk Control Points

- Today's volatility is large and fluctuating repeatedly, light positions + strict stop loss
- The evening will have light data, mainly focusing on technical fluctuations
$XAU

#金价连续第十天下跌
March 24 Evening Gold Trend
⚠️ For learning and sharing purposes only, not investment advice

I. Latest Evening Market (as of 18:56)

- London Gold Spot: 4428 USD/oz, intraday -0.28%
- Intraday range: 4305–4446 USD
- Volume and price characteristics:
- Daytime low weak fluctuations, low volume repair, no volume rebound
- European session slightly surged and then fell back, 4440–4450 selling pressure is obvious
- 4-hour level: Bearish arrangement unchanged, MACD still below the zero axis

II. Evening Trend Judgment (20:00–02:00)

Overall tone: Weak fluctuations, rebound inducing long positions, bearish dominance
Core range: 4330–4450 USD

Scenario Simulation (Evening)

- High probability (70%)
Narrow fluctuations in the 4380–4440 range, rebound with low volume, meets resistance and falls back, end of the session is weak.
- Medium probability (25%)
Break down 4380 → Test 4330–4300 support, significant volume break looks to 4250.
- Low probability (5%)
Stable above 4450 with significant volume → Short-term rebound to 4480–4500, but hard to reverse.

III. Evening Key Levels

- Resistance
- First resistance: 4440–4450 (strong resistance)
- Second resistance: 4480–4500 (bull-bear watershed)
- Support
- First support: 4380–4360 (evening short-term support)
- Second support: 4330–4300 (strong support)
- Break level looks to: 4250

IV. Evening Trading Ideas (Technical Learning)

- Strictly prohibited to bottom fish: rebounding with low volume + oversold stagnation, mainly inducing long positions
- Best to observe: do not engage in weak rebounds
- Shorting reference
Rebound 4430–4450 light position short, stop loss 4480, target 4380→4330
- Long conditions (extremely cautious)
After breaking down 4330 with significant volume long lower shadow + bottom divergence, then light position long, stop loss 4280

V. Risk Control (Must Read)

- Light positions, strict stop-loss, do not hold positions
- During US market data/volatility increase, prioritize observation
$XAU

#黄金创43年来最大单周跌幅
March 24 Gold Trend
Only for learning and sharing, not investment advice

1. Latest Market Overview (as of March 24, 08:40)

- London Gold Spot: $4346/oz, daily -2.13%
- After yesterday's sharp drop: continuing to fall today, weak fluctuations at low levels
- Daily range: approximately $4300–$4430
- Capital situation: Slight outflow of main funds, no-volume downward trend
- Macro: The US dollar index remains high, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is 4.34%, suppressing gold prices

2. Core Characteristics of Volume and Price (Today)

1. Low opening and continued decline, with shrinking volume
After a slight rebound at the opening, it weakened again, and transaction volume significantly shrank, with no buying support, typical of a no-volume downward trend.
2. Extremely weak rebound, no sustainability
Any slight rebound lacks volume support, and bulls are unable to counterattack, typical of an oversold weak recovery.
3. Oversold still dulling
RSI and KDJ are deeply oversold, but the MACD green bars have not shrunk, and the moving averages are completely bearish, downward inertia remains.

3. Today's Trend Judgment (All Day)

Overall tone: Weak fluctuations seeking a bottom, dominated by bears, with no stabilization signals.
Core range: $4280–$4420

Scenario Analysis

- High probability (70%)
Maintain a narrow downward trend of $4300–$4400, with rebounds lacking volume, and a slowdown in declines, focusing on bottoming.
- Secondary probability (25%)
Selling pressure is released again, breaking below $4300, testing support at $4250–$4200.
- Low probability (5%)
A sudden surge with volume, stabilizing at $4420, may lead to a short-term stop in the decline.

4. Key Levels (Today)

- Resistance
- First Resistance: $4400 (strong resistance during the day)
- Second Resistance: $4420–$4450 (bull-bear dividing line)
- Support
- First Support: $4300 (psychological barrier)
- Second Support: $4250–$4200 (strong support area)

5. Operational Learning Thoughts (Today)

- Strictly prohibited to catch the bottom: no-volume downward trend + oversold dulling, any rebound is a trap for bulls.
- Mainly wait and see: do not engage in weak rebounds, waiting for a long lower shadow with volume + bottom divergence + stabilize at $4450 before considering stabilization.
- Technical observation
- Encounter resistance near $4400 with no volume: bearish
- Volume stabilizes at $4250–$4300: repair signal

6. Risk Control (Must Read)

- Light position, with stop loss, do not hold positions
- Prioritize exiting and watching during violent fluctuations
$XAU

#黄金创43年来最大单周跌幅
3.23 Gold Evening Review

⚠️ This is only a personal learning review sharing, and does not constitute any investment advice. Investing carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market.

 

【Core Market Overview】

The European market's close reported at $4404, with an intraday volatility exceeding $430, hitting a low of $4097; breaking through 5 key levels, having dropped more than 17% from the previous high of $4990, a bearish trend has been fully established; the US dollar and US Treasury yields are both at new highs, continuously exerting strong pressure on gold prices.

【Technical Core Features】

1. Gap down with volume selling, $4450 has completely turned from strong support to strong resistance.
2. The entire rebound during oversold conditions was on low volume, with no bottom-fishing capital entering, and the rebound lacks sustainability.
3. Indicators are deeply oversold but have become dull, with extreme inertia in the downtrend and no reversal signals.

【Evening US Market Trend Judgment】

Overall: Weak bottom-seeking after an extreme crash, bears are absolutely dominant, with the core observation range at $4100-$4450.

- High probability: Weak bottoming in the $4150-$4350 range, with no sudden positive news likely to break $4400.
- Risk Warning: Panic may escalate or retest $4100, and even look down to the $4000 level.
- The only reversal condition: A volume breakout above $4450 + significant capital inflow from major players.

【Evening Key Levels (Technical Observation Only)】

🔴 Resistance Level: $4450 (the dividing line between bulls and bears), $4500 (rebound limit)
🟢 Support Level: $4200 (weak support), $4100 (strong defense level)

【Core Ideas & Risk Control Rules】

✅ Strictly prohibit blind bottom-fishing! Without clear volume stop-loss signals, absolutely do not enter the market.
✅ Prioritize observation, abandon uncertain weak rebounds.
✅ Strictly control positions within 5%, absolutely prohibit heavy positions and holding onto losing trades.
✅ Any operation must have a stop-loss; in case of violent market fluctuations, prioritize exiting and observing.
$XAU

#黄金创43年来最大单周跌幅
$XAU 3 March 23 Gold Learning Material

I. Latest Market Overview

As of March 23, 10:11, London gold is at 4407.98 USD/ounce

- Intraday drop of 1.27%, with a fluctuation exceeding 150 USD, lowest drop to 4317.56 USD
​
- Opening gap down, breaking through the key support at 4450 USD, completely opening up downward space
​
- Net outflow of major funds exceeds 1.3 billion USD, significantly fleeing for four consecutive days
​
- Compared to the previous high of 4990 USD, the cumulative decline has exceeded 13%, with a fully established bearish trend

 

II. Core Characteristics of Today's Volume and Price

1. Gap down with increased volume: Breaking levels accompanied by increased trading volume, triggering long stop-losses and programmed short selling, with concentrated release of short selling pressure, and no effective resistance against the decline
​
2. Volume-less rebound invalid: All throughout the oversold rebound, there is no volume, no bottom-fishing funds entering, buying power is extremely weak, all rebounds are merely technical weak repairs
​
3. Oversold stagnation with no rebound: RSI and KDJ are deeply oversold, but MACD green bars continue to expand, and moving averages are completely bearish, with strong downward inertia

 

III. Core Drivers of the Market

1. Fed's hawkish expectations solidify, with interest rate cut expectations for 2026 basically returning to zero, the market begins to price in a restart of rate hikes
​
2. 10-year US Treasury yield rises to 4.39%, the US dollar index hits a new high for 2026, with dual pressure on gold prices
​
3. Key support levels continuously break, triggering a multi-kill panic, market sentiment extremely pessimistic, with no backing force

 

IV. Judgement of Today's Remaining Time Period Trend

Overall tone: Weak bottom-seeking + technical weak repairs, bears absolutely dominate, no reversal signals
Core fluctuation range: 4300-4450 USD

Segmented forecasting

- European session: Likely to maintain a weak fluctuation between 4350-4420 USD, volume-less rebounds will again test the 4300 level; stabilization near 4300 with increased volume may trigger slight oversold repairs
​
- US session: No heavyweight data, maintaining weak fluctuations, without sudden positive news it is difficult to break through the 4450 pressure level, deteriorating sentiment may refresh intra-day lows

Key Signals

- Stabilization signal: Only when there is a long lower shadow with increased volume + RSI bottom divergence + stabilizing above 4450 USD, may it enter a bottoming phase
​
- Bearish continuation signal: Continued volume-less decline + volume-less rebound, the downward trend will continue, or test the 4300 USD level

 

V. Today's Key Points Reference

🔴 Resistance Levels

- First resistance: 4450 USD (original key support, strong pressure during the day) $XAU

​

#黄金创43年来最大单周跌幅
Gold March 23 Market Trend Learning Report

1. Latest Market Overview

London Gold is currently at $4490.74
Cumulative decline from the previous high exceeds 10%
Has broken below the key support level of $4500
✅ Breakout with increased volume, bearish momentum not exhausted
✅ Weak rebound with reduced volume, bullish support extremely weak
✅ Technical indicators extremely oversold and dull, strong bearish trend

 

2. Core Judgment of Monday's Trend

Overall Tone: Weakness seeking bottom + Technical weak repair
Bears are absolutely dominant, no trend reversal signals
Core volatility range: $4400-$4550

 

3. Intraday Trend Simulation

▫️ Asia Session: Continuing weak fluctuations, testing support range of $4450-$4420
▫️ European Session: Stabilization with increased volume in the $4400-$4450 range, may trigger a rebound from overselling, rebound height difficult to break $4500 pressure level
▫️ US Session: Light data on Monday, maintaining range fluctuations, does not change the overall bearish trend

 

4. Key Reference Points (London Gold)

🔴 Resistance Levels
First Resistance: $4500 (original support turned resistance, core defensive position for bears)
Second Resistance: $4550 (daily rebound limit)

🟢 Support Levels
First Support: $4450 (stage weak support)
Second Support: $4400 (strong support level)

 

5. Review Thoughts & Risk Control Rules

✅ Strictly prohibited to catch a falling knife! Currently a clear bearish breakout market
✅ Prioritize observation, waiting for stabilization with increased volume + bottom divergence signals
✅ Only light positions for short-term trial and error, strictly with stop losses, quick in and out
✅ Position strictly controlled within 5%, absolutely no heavy positions or holding

 

⚠️ Again, please note: This is for personal learning and review sharing only, not investment advice
Investing carries risks; proceed with caution

$XAU

#黄金

1. Latest Market Situation (after breaking 4500)

London gold has lost the 4500 USD mark, with a minimum touching around 4480
The higher point of 4990 USD has accumulated a drop of over 10%
The breakdown accompanied by increased volume triggers a new round of stop-loss orders, and the bearish momentum is not exhausted

2. Core Reasons for the Breakdown

1. Key support of 4500 has been breached, and the technical breakdown triggers a chain of stop-loss orders
2. The Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations are strengthening, and high interest rates continue to suppress for a longer time
3. The dollar and US Treasury yields remain high, with funds continuously flowing out of gold
4. Market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, and there is currently no large-scale bottom-fishing funds entering the market

3. Core Judgment of the Trend

Short term: Accelerating to find the bottom + weak fluctuation
Bearish dominance, with no reversal signals

Next week: Seeking the bottom at a low level + technical weak repair
It is difficult to change the bearish trend, and 4500 changes from support to strong pressure
Core focus: US PCE, durable goods orders data guidance

4. Key Levels (London Gold)

🔴 Resistance Levels: 4500, 4550 (original support becomes pressure)
🟢 Support Levels: 4450, 4400 (strong support range)

5. Operational Ideas (for review only)

✅ Strictly prohibited to bottom-fish, the current situation is clearly a bearish breakdown market
✅ Priority is to observe, waiting for stabilization signals (increased volume long lower shadow + bottom divergence)
✅ Short-term consideration only: short at 4500-4550 if met with resistance, strictly with stop-loss
✅ Position ≤5%, absolutely do not hold positions,
$XAU

#美联储3月议息会议
I. Current Market Overview (as of the European session opening on March 20th)

Spot gold in London was trading at $4652/oz, fluctuating narrowly throughout the day. It touched a low of $4641.72 and a high of $4668, ending the previous two days of sharp declines with high volume. Market sentiment shifted from extreme panic to cautious observation, with no clear directional trend.

II. Core Volume-Price Relationship (Core Drivers of Today's Price Movement)

1. The Selling Momentum Has Reached its End
Following the Fed's interest rate decision on March 18-19, gold prices experienced two consecutive days of sharp declines with high volume, with a cumulative drop exceeding $300. Trading volume reached a recent high, indicating a concentrated release of short selling pressure due to profit-taking and stop-loss orders for long positions. Today, Asian session trading volume shrank by over 30% compared to the previous two days, significantly reducing selling pressure. No new large-scale sell orders were added, and the selling momentum has essentially been exhausted.

2. Weak bullish momentum; rebound is a correction from oversold conditions, not a reversal.

Today's Asian session rebound was accompanied by low volume throughout, with buying primarily driven by short-term retail investors looking to buy on dips. The lack of large institutional orders indicates that bullish confidence has not yet recovered. The current market movement is merely a passive correction after severe overselling, not a trend reversal.

3. Volume-price divergence at the bottom, clear need for correction. While prices hit a new low for the period, the daily RSI and KDJ indicators are both in extreme oversold territory below 20, and the bearish momentum bars are continuously shortening, showing a clear volume-price divergence signal. The strong need for technical correction is the core support for today's market.

III. Core Logic of Bullish and Bearish Trends

🔴 Bearish Pressure (Still Dominant in the Medium Term)

- The Fed's March rate decision was more hawkish than expected, significantly narrowing expectations for rate cuts in 2026 and firmly establishing the expectation of "higher and longer interest rates," continuing to suppress gold prices in the medium term.

- The US dollar index has stabilized above the 100 mark, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains high, significantly increasing the cost of holding gold and leading to continued institutional fund withdrawals.

- Stronger-than-expected US employment data further weakens the basis for rate cuts, and the market narrative has shifted from "when to cut rates" to "whether to raise rates."