#特朗普缓和局势
⚠️ Risk Warning
The following analysis is based on the latest prices and volumes as of March 26, 09:30, and does not constitute investment advice.
1. Today's Latest Market (3.26)
- London Gold Spot: 4533 USD/ounce, +0.79%
- New York Gold (Futures): 4568 USD/ounce, -0.38%
- Gold T+D: 1009.86 CNY/gram, +0.07%
- Intraday Range: 4497 — 4543 USD
2. Core Characteristics of Price-Volume Relationship
1. External market fluctuations, internal market relatively strong
- International market: Highs followed by pullbacks, volume contraction, slight capital outflow
- Domestic market: Anti-fall, buying support, moderate trading volume
→ External weakness, internal strength differentiation, high-level fluctuations digested
2. Structural Judgment
- After a sharp rise yesterday, today's technical consolidation
- 4-hour: End of rebound wave, momentum weakening
- Daily: Still above the 5/10 day moving average, bullish but cautious
3. Today's Trend Judgment (3.26 All Day)
Main Tone: High-level fluctuations, range consolidation, slight bearish pullback
Core Range: 4490 — 4550 USD
- High Probability (70%)
Intraday 4500–4540 fluctuations, 4540–4550 resistance encountered, European and American markets weak, testing 4490–4480.
- Secondary Probability (20%)
Volume breakout at 4550 → Short-term surge to 4580, but difficult to sustain without volume.
- Low Probability (10%)
Breakdown below 4480 → Accelerated weakening, looking at 4450–4400.
4. Today's Key Levels
- Resistance
- First Resistance: 4540–4550 (strong intraday resistance)
- Second Resistance: 4580–4600
- Support
- First Support: 4500–4490 (intraday watershed)
- Second Support: 4480–4450 (strong support)
5. Trading Thoughts (Technical Reference)
- Do not chase long positions: volume contraction fluctuations, high risk of being lured into long positions
- Focus on short positions
Light positions shorting at 4530–4550, stop loss at 4570, target 4500→4480
- Conditions for going long (extremely cautious)
Rebound to 4490–4480 with volume stabilization and long lower shadow, then consider light short-term longs
6. Risk Control Points
- Today's fluctuations are repeated, volatility narrowing, light positions + strict stop loss
- Pay attention to the US initial jobless claims data tonight (20:30)
$XAU
