#国际油价下跌 Oil prices have fallen, and the opportunity for gold has come again!
⚠️ Risk Warning
The following analysis is based solely on the latest prices and volume data from March 25 and does not constitute investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and strict risk control is required.
1. Latest Market Situation (March 25, 19:20)
- London Gold Spot: 4567.81 USD/ounce, intraday +0.48%
- Intraday Range: 4527.21 — 4602.04 USD
- New York Gold (Futures): 4599.6 USD/ounce, +3.73%
- Gold T+D: 1013.51 CNY/gram, +4.19%
2. Core Characteristics of Volume-Price Relationship
1. Morning volume surge followed by afternoon volume drop
- Asian session broke through 4550→4580→4600, trading volume doubled, significant capital inflow
- European session retreated from the 4602 high, trading volume shrank, capital took profits
→ Rebound momentum weakened, entering a high-level consolidation phase
2. Structural Judgment
- Belongs to a strong rebound after a sharp decline (pulled up from the low of 4306)
- 4-hour: end of the rebound wave, high points raised but momentum weakened
- Daily: recaptured the 5/10-day moving averages, short-term bullish dominance
3. Today's Trend Judgment (March 25, Remaining Time)
Main Tone: High-level consolidation, slightly strong adjustment, difficult to rise significantly
Core Range: 4530 — 4590 USD
- High Probability (70%)
The evening will fluctuate in the range of 4540–4580, heavy selling pressure above 4580, difficult to break the intraday new high.
- Secondary Probability (20%)
Break below 4530 → short-term weakness, testing 4500 support.
- Low Probability (10%)
Once again, a volume breakthrough above 4600 → rush to 4620–4630, but if there is no volume, it will definitely fall back.
4. Key Points (Evening)
- Resistance
- First Resistance: 4580–4600 (strong intraday resistance)
- Second Resistance: 4620–4630
- Support
- First Support: 4530–4540 (intraday watershed)
- Second Support: 4500 round number
5. Trading Ideas (Technical Reference)
- Do not chase highs: volume contraction and fluctuations, high risk of inducing bullish positions
- Focus on shorting
Lightly short at the rebound of 4570–4590, stop loss at 4610, target 4540→4500
- Conditions for Going Long (Extremely Cautious)
Wait for a pullback to the 4530–4500 range with increased volume and stabilization, and a long lower shadow before considering a light long position
6. Risk Control Points
- Today's volatility is large and fluctuating repeatedly, light positions + strict stop loss
- The evening will have light data, mainly focusing on technical fluctuations
$XAU
