#全球市场波动 Gold has opportunities every day
⚠️ Risk warning
Does not constitute investment advice. Gold trading is highly volatile and risky; strict risk control and rational decision-making are required to enter the market.
March 30 (Monday) Core analysis of gold market conditions
Main tone: Wide fluctuations, easy pullbacks after rises, bearish strategies
Core operating range: 4350 — 4550 USD/ounce
Core drivers: 20:30 U.S. February PCE inflation data (the biggest variable of the day)
Probability trend judgment
- High probability (65%): PCE data meets/ slightly exceeds expectations, fluctuates downwards, tests 4400-4370 support
- Secondary probability (25%): Data greatly favorable, rises to 4580-4600 and then faces pressure to pull back
- Low probability (10%): Data greatly unfavorable, breaks below 4400, dips to 4350-4300
Key levels
- Strong resistance: 4530-4550 (core pressure range of the day)
- Secondary resistance: 4500 (strong-weak dividing line)
- Secondary support: 4400-4420 (bull-bear lifeline)
- Strong support: 4350-4370 (strong support of the trend)
Core operational strategy
1. Core main strategy (priority execution)
- Direction: Focus on short positions, do not chase highs
- Entry: After a rebound to the 4520-4550 range and unable to hold above 4550
- Risk control: Stop loss above 4570; take profit at 4450 (half) → 4400-4420 (all out); if 4400 breaks, watch for 4370
2. Alternative strategy (conditional trigger)
- Direction: Ultra-short low long, do not catch the bottom
- Entry: Stabilizes after a pullback to the 4370-4400 range, does not break below 4370
- Risk control: Stop loss below 4350; take profit at 4450 (half) → 4500 (all out)
3. Special response to PCE data
- One hour before the data: Close short-term positions, do not hold positions betting on the data
- Significantly favorable: Do not chase long positions, after a rise to 4580-4600 face pressure, lightly test short positions
- Significantly unfavorable: Do not catch the bottom, after a rebound to 4420-4430 lightly follow short positions
Iron rules
1. Do not enter the market within 30 minutes of opening, observe first
2. Total position ≤ 20%, test with light positions
3. Must carry stop loss, individual stop loss ≤ 30 USD, never hold on to a position
4. Do not chase highs or lows, take profits when they arise!
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