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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has had a Higher Lows trend-line supporting it that started on the December 2018 Bear Cycle bottom. Last month the price tested it and held. That's part of the long-term Rising Wedge pattern as shown on the chat.
What's also shown is that BTC is no stranger to this pattern. A similar 7-year Rising Wedge broke to the downside during the 2018 Bear Cycle. Even though by the time of the Higher Lows test, BTC had already dropped by -70%, more than almost the -55% of the current (2026) Bear Cycle, today's one is more aggressive as it almost tested the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous Bear Cycle bottom, whereas 2018 was on the 0.236 Fib and bottomed on the 0.382.
This is why we've argued in previous analyses that the 0.5 Fib level is a much more likely candidate for a new bottom and sits around $45000.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Dogecoin (DOGEUSD) has been historically trading within a multi-year Channel Up since its first day. Right now it has completed 2 months of trading exactly on its 1M MA100 (red trend-line), which has been the Support of the previous Bear Cycle.
Holding this could start DOGE's new Accumulation Phase, which is a stage that has historically emerged on every single one of its Bear Cycles. On the previous one, Doge bottomed before Bitcoin, while on the first two Cycles, after. In any event, those three previous bottoms form a striking sequence, which becomes very obvious with the use of the Time Cycles tool.
Those bottoms have coincided with the 1W RSI entering its multi-year Support Zone (except March 2019). And those Time Cycles show that this Bear Cycle bottom has high probabilities of already being priced now (March 2026).
At the same time, the Gaussian Channel has only 'recently' (December 2025) turned red, which has coincided with the Accumulation Phases of the last two Bear Cycles.
As a result, Dogecoin has high probabilities of starting a prolonged 1.5-year sideways/ ranged trading where long-term investors accumulate at any pace, until the strong rallies of the Bull Cycle, which usually come very fast and aggressive.
So, good time to start accumulating Doge again?
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$DOGE #DOGE #Dogecoin‬⁩ #DOGEUSDT #DOGEUSD #signals

This is no secret. We all know it. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) tends to rise when the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY, black trend-line) is cheap and drops when it rises. No rocket science here, their negative (inverse) correlation is natural as BTC is valued in USD.
Based on this, what this chart shows though that the Dollar is about to start a new multi-year rally while Bitcoin has already been within its new Bear Cycle since October 2025.
Technically the USD bottomed in June 2025 and started forming a prolonged Support base so the lag it technically natural. This has happened during almost every Cycle, BTC didn't start its Bear Cycle exactly when DXY bottomed and started rising as it's not 'ceteris paribus', other market dynamics play their role too. But the value of the USD has indeed the most important effect macro-wise.
So now that we've determined that this can happen, what's next? Panic? Not exactly. First, the 2011 Bear Cycle has shown that BTC can bottom even though the DXY keeps rising. 2014 has shown that DXY can accelerate rallying aggressively but BTC can continue to a 'normal' Bear Cycle bottom without collapse. 2018/19 has shown quite similar results, when DXY kept rising but much less aggressively even though BTC had already started a new Bull Cycle.
The real problem is the 2022 period. BTC bottomed almost exactly when DXY peaked and started correcting violently. But of course this was a very special situation as the Inflation Crisis of that period drove global markets down violently as the aggressive money supply increase (printing) to recover from the COVID lockdowns inflated prices. Coupled with the Ukraine - Russia war that dealt a hit to the economies through historic energy price spikes, we got that situation: The Dollar has to peak and correct aggressively in order for BTC to bottom.
So is this time similar to 2022 (Iran war = projected inflation but of course no massive money printing before as during COVID) or to the three Bear Cycles before? Statistically the latter. And that implies that the most probable outcome is for the DXY to continue rising, while Bitcoin extends its Bear Cycle but on a slower pace until the eventual bottom in Q4 2026.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is technically half-way through its Bear Cycle by all known metrics, both in terms of price and time. What we haven't shown you yet (actually we have published this thesis 6-7 years ago and it's since been forgotten) is the underlying Channel Up approach on a Cycle horizon that has gone unnoticed to most.
As you can see, ever since its first complete Bear Cycle in 2011, BTC has been forming Channel Up patterns ending at the bottom of the next Bear Cycle.
- Channel Up 1: 2011 - 2014
- Channel Up 2: 2014 - 2018
- Channel Up 3: 2018 - 2022
- Channel Up 4: 2022 - now
Right now we (obviously) are on the Bear Cycle that will complete Channel 4. It's bottom, based on this model, is projected to be within the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous Cycle bottom and a potential -70% decline. Which translates to a Bottom range within $45000 - $37500.
That's because Channel Up 1 bottomed above the 0.382 Fib, while the next one (Channel Up 2) bottomed exactly on it. Channel Up 3 broke below the 0.383 Fib and bottomed just above the 0.5 Fib, so similarly the next one (Channel Up 4) should bottom on the 0.5 Fib (at least). The -70% estimate is derived by the -7.00% decreasing rate that each Bear Cycle had compared to the previous one (exception the 2018 Bear Cycle).
Additionally, the $45k Target would be within BTC's 1W MA350 (red trend-line) and 1W MA500 (black trend-line), as since 2018 every Bear Cycle bottom is -150MA lower.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is currently around its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), trading within a Rising Wedge pattern since the February 06 Low. This resembles the pattern of December - January that eventually broke downwards after a test-rejection on its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and the Lower Highs trend-line from the All Time High (ATH).
The 1D MACD though has made a Bearish Cross already, which is however close to be negated following yesterday's Trump announcement on the 5-day ceasefire. Last time that happened was on January 19, after the 1D MA100/ Lower Highs rejection.
So are we within an early January consolidation or after a new Top? Whatever the situation may be, BTC seems to be constrained to a max cap around $77000 and as April begins should technically start the new Bearish Leg as per this dominant Bear Cycle pattern.
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$BTC #bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is about to break down its 2-month consolidation and start the next Bearish Leg, which will technically be the 3rd of the current Bear Cycle. That should be part of the market's final descent towards the bottoming process.
This process is what we will call on this idea the 'Mayer Multiple and Fib MAs Sweet Spot'. And as you understand that is the common Buy Zone of the MM Bands (MMBs) and the Fib MAs.
As you see, every BTC Bear Cycle dropped on average by at least -50% after entering the MMBs Buy Zone (green). All approached the Fib MA (red trend-line) with the last Cycle even touching it and bottoming there. The 2011 Bear Cycle even hit Multiple 8 (blue) and bottomed.
According to all the above the most optimal combination for this Cycle's buy ('Sweet Spot'), would be $40000 (in my opinion late overextension for practical reasons). That would be in the middle of the Fib MA and Multiple 8 and still not -50% from the moment of the MMBs entrance.
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$BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTC #BTCUSDT #signals

The BTC / Gold ratio (BTCUSD/XAUUSD) has been a cornerstone of our long-term research. As you can see the symmetry between its Bear Cycles is astonishing. Each Bear Cycle since 2014 has lasted for exactly 396 days. And last month, it completed again 396 days from the January 2025 High. No to this symmetry's surprise, March is so far on a strong green 1M candle.
So based on the ratio's cyclical behavior, we may have a bottom, meaning that it may be time to rotate some of Gold's massive profits into Bitcoin, which has dropped by more than -50% already from its All Time High (ATH). To avoid confusion, it doesn't mean that both BTC and Gold can't decline at the same time, it just implies that it may be time for Bitcoin to drop at a lower rate than Gold. Which isn't unreasonable given that Bitcoin has been within a Bear Cycle for 6 months already (and will gradually start being a bargain long-term), while Gold may have just started it's own Bear Cycle.
The 1M CCI seems to agree with that potential Cycle bottom as it hit and rebounded on the Lower Lows trend-line that goes back to 2015. The Time Cycles help at identifying all prior bottoms. In addition to that, the ratio just formed a 1D MA200 (black trend-line) / 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) Bearish Cross, which last time it was formed (November 2022) it was right at the bottom of the previous Bear Cycle.
So time to dump Gold and buy Bitcoin??
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#BTC #bitcoin $BTC #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

More than 4 months ago (November 07 2025, see chart below), we gave a massive long-term Sell Signal on XRP (XRPUSD), after it got rejected on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line):

The price action responded immediately and has been on a strong decline ever since. It is time to revisit this and put it into a greater context comparing the current Bear Cycle to the previous two.
Following February's rebound on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and the inability of XRP to recover its 1W MA100 (green trend-line), we see strong similarities with February - March 2022 and March - May 2019. In both cases this price action was past the middle of each Bear Cycle, so technically we should be in a similar position now as well (past the 0.5 Time Fibonacci level).
A break below the 1W MA200 would signal the final drop and bottom formation upon touching the 1M MA100 (red trend-line). Given the 6-year Higher Lows trend-line just below it, we can formulate a realistic Buy Zone technically.
Our $0.9000 Target still stands, as it is on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and the trajectory of the 1M MA100, which is the combined Support on which the June 13 2022 bottom was formed. Taking into account also the 6-year Higher Lows trend-line, we can estimate a total Buy Zone for a long-term buy within 0.9000 - 0.8000.
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$XRP #Ripple #xrp #XRPUSDT #xrpusd #signals

No fancy multi indicator analysis here. No elaborate terminology. Just one indicator, which makes Bitcoin (BTCUSD) crash every time it flashes.
That's the Gaussian Channel (GC), which we haven't used in a long time but every time it historically turned red since the 2014 Bear Cycle, BTC crashed by a little over -52.00% from that moment.
And it just turned red this week. In 2014 once it did, the market crashed by another -52.87%. In 2018, it crashed by -52.55% and in 2022 by -52.31%. So if we count -52.00% from this week's High, we get $36500 and that's not an unreasonable bottom projection based on that very reliable model.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is on a strong short-term rise ahead of today's Fed Rate Decision, getting the buy side of the market excited. And they should be. Not because of this short-term counter trend rally, which is normal within long-term correction but because based on the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator, half of the Bear Cycle is already over!
The NUPL on the 1W time-frame bounced off the 16.235 level, which is a symmetrical point where all previous three Bear Cycles where on (or almost) their middle. This gets more clear if we take the Time Fibonacci tool and apply it on each Bear Cycle's Top to Bottom. We can se that the 0.5 Fib (middle) matches the NUPL 16.235 contact. If you further add the Time Cycles, it becomes evident that this is a recurring pattern/ behavior.
So the bad news is that the Bear Cycle hasn't bottomed yet but the good news is that we're most likely done with half of it! The NUPL gives historically a solid long-term Buy Signal when it breaks below the -12.000 level and re-tests it. And as we mentioned before, we expect BTC to hit at least its 1W MA350 (red trend-line) as it did on the previous Bear Cycle, which should be below $50000. Long-term buying once we enter September remains time-wise the most optimal strategy based on the 4-year Cycle model.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to trade within the Channel Down that has dictated the price since the start of the Bear Cycle. This is practically the Cycle's underlying pattern and until broken, BTC will continue having a clear path lower.
Right now we are on the consolidation phase following the pattern's 2nd Bearish Leg that was supported just above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), just like the previous Bearish Leg did on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and the first drop above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
This pattern that the price action follows naturally suggest that the 1W MA350 (red trend-line) is next, which as we've mentioned countless times, was where the 2022 Bear Cycle bottom was priced. Every Support within this Channel Down has been roughly around a new +1.00 Fibonacci extension and the next in line is the 4.0. This is at $47000 and based on the 1W MA350 trajectory, it is very likely to make contact there.
At the same time, every Lower Low hit the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from the consolidation phase, which now sits at $41500. Effectively this creates a Target Zone of 47000 - 41500. Notice also that the 1D MA100 (black trend-line) has been the Resistance with multiple price rejections since October 13 2025. Also, the most efficient Sell Signal within this pattern has been the 1D MACD making a Bearish Cross.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) completed this month a Bullish Cross on its 1M STOCH RSI. Many think that this signals the bottom of the Bear Cycle and it is indeed a start and an encouraging signal after falling more than -50%.
However history has shown that BTC can remain bearish for a long, painful time after the STOCH RSI makes this cross. During the previous three Bear Cycles, the market bottomed within 214 - 275 days after the Bullish Cross.
So Bitcoin's new 'road of torture' can last for a minimum until October 2026, based on that model. As for how low that bottom might be, it should technically hit at least the 1W MA350 (red trend-line) around $50000, if not lower (1W MA450) based on the Parabolic Growth Model hitting an MA level lower on each Cycle.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Tron (TRXUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the August 14 2025 High. However its current rally since the February 06 2026 Low, is approaching the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) right at the top of the pattern and is jeopardizing its structure.
A 1D MA200 rejection would technically keep the Channel Down intact but a break above it would make the trend transition into a Rectangle that could eye 0.3200 as a Top. Check also the 1D RSI similarities between the two fractals.
Either way the medium-term Target of this ongoing Bear Cycle is the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). Depending on where the rejection takes place, the Target Zone is 0.25300 - 0.25000.
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$TRX #TRX #Tron #Trxusdt #TRXUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is testing today its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 6 weeks (since January 28). That was when the 2nd Bearish Leg of the current Bear Cycle was already underway and the 1D MA50 rejection accelerated it.
Based on the Cycle's structure so far, the dominant force is the Lower Highs trend-line that started exactly on the October 06 2025 All Time High (ATH). That may have gone unnoticed so far by many but is the market's underlying trend-line so far. Along with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which has been holding as Resistance since October 29 2025 and provided the last major rejection exactly on the Lower Highs trend-line on January 14, kick-starting the Bear Cycle's 2nd Bearish Leg.
Along with the first one, those two Bearish Legs started once the 1D RSI hit its 8-month Sell Zone (red). In fact even July's High was rejected there. So, given that the RSI is still some distance away from the Sell Zone while BTC also has room until the Lower Highs trend-line/ 1D MA100, it is technically possible to see one last High before a new rejection and the start of Bearish Leg no 3.
If that takes place eventually, and given also the high symmetry so far of the Cycle among the Bearish Legs, we expect the next sell-off to target the $47500 - 45500 zone, which would be within the 1W MA350 (red trend-line) and the -0.382 Fibonacci extension (that was the Target of the previous Leg). The 1W MA350 is important because it is where the 2022 Bear Cycle bottomed and the next MA Support after the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which held the 2nd Bearish Leg.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been repeating its 2022 Bear Cycle and we've analyzed that extensively in the past weeks. What we are adding this time is a Pivot Zone, effectively a formed Support turned Resistance in 2022.
That is illustrated by the blue Rectangle and on the 2022 Cycle rejected BTC on the March 30 2022 1W candle, initiating the 3rd Bearish Leg of the pattern.
Now that Pivot Zone acted as the Support for the entirety of 2022 and is so far holding as Resistance, rejecting the price already once last week. With the symmetry incredibly high so far between the 2022 and 2026 Bear Cycles (even prior to them their structures have been similar), it remains to be seen if that Zone will continue to hold and kickstart the 3rd Bearish Leg just like it did on the 2022 pattern.
If it does, expect BTC to easily break below its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and hit the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (blue) around $51000 before rebounding one last time. The eventual Bear Cycle bottom should be within the 1W MA350 (red trend-line) and 1W MA450 (black trend-line), just above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from the November 2022 Bear Cycle bottom.
The 2.0 (blue) Fib ext and that 0.5 Fib (dotted black) form what we call the 'Effective Buy Zone' in the middle of which the previous Bear Cycle bottomed. That is expected to be this time within the $50000 - $45000 range.
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$BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTC #BTCUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is having a unique correlation historically with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, both on uptrends and downtrends. This is of critical importance right now, at this part of the Bear Cycle we are currently at and we will explain to you why.
To get a better understanding of this connection, on today's analysis we take a long price action sample since October 2024. As you can see, every trend BTC had since then that pulled-back to its 0.382 Fib, it held it either as Support (during Bullish Legs/ rallies) or Resistance (during Bearish Legs/ corrections) and then continued the dominant trend.
Even since the star of the current Bear Cycle we are seeing this with the market already making a January 14 2026 rebound on the 0.382 and getting rejected to a new Bearish Leg. That rejection was also on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is currently serving as the Bear Cycle's medium-term Resistance.
Since the price has already almost touched the 0.382 Fib last Wednesday, we give it a maximum tolerance extension to continue sideways for the rest of the month (at best) and get close to the 1D MA100 again for a new rejection. That could actually coincide with the 1D RSI testing its 1.5 year Lower Highs trend-line. Whether the rejection takes place now or around the end of March, the long-term trend remains heavily bearish and the Cycle's bottom isn't yet in.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is on the 6th month of its new Bear Cycle, having tested last month the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is currently acting as Support.
Today's analysis is unique as it incorporates the Volatility Index (VIX) in such a way that it shows how the market is acting relative to the previous Bear Cycles.
VIX (blue trend-line) has been rising aggressively since December and the current Iran-U.S. war is only making matters worse. In fact, VIX has been spiking periodically since June 2024, with its previous Leg of aggression being in early 2025, which was due to Trump's global Tariff War. We call this Volatility Box, the 'Turbulence Period'. And historically, VIX has always had such periods starting around the same time BTC had its Bear Cycles.
This time seems to be no different as a Higher Highs trend-line is being formed on VIX, a distinct characteristic of all previous Turbulence Periods. As a result, Bitcoin's Bear Cycle is unlikely to stop here, in fact based on the previous Cycle, the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) - 1W MA450 (red trend-line) Zone is expected to introduce the 2nd Phase of the Bear Cycle, a long-term bottom formation.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Solana (SOLUSD) has been consolidating practically since the February 02 2026 Low as the 1W RSI hit 30.00 (oversold) and the market took a breather from massively oversold grounds.
This resembles technically June 06 2022 during the previous Bear Cycle when SOL's 1W RSI also (almost turned oversold). That market the start of Stage 2 (red Rectangle) of the Bear Cycle, right on the 0.5 Time Fibonacci level.
The 0.5 horizontal (price) Fib should technically act as a Resistance from now on, same as the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), which apparently just formed a Bearish Cross with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) around almost the same time as the 2022 Bear Cycle did.
Cycles are never completely identical but they are symmetrical due to similar market behavioral patterns and technically until the 1D MA200 breaks again, the Bear Cycle should continue (like it did in 2022, which ended once it broke).
As a result, the minimum Target moving forward, should be $36.00, as that is the 1.0 Fib level, down from the 0.618 Fib we are now, based on the symmetry with 2022 and assuming it continues to stand.
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$SOL #solana #sol #SOLUSDT #SOLUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has just completed a Death Cross on the 3D time-frame, which is when the MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses below the MA200 (orange trend-line).
Every time this took place since 2014 during a Bear Cycle, BTC dropped by at least another -52%. That was the case of the 2022 and 2018 Bear Cycles, while in 2014 it declined by -57%.
At the same time, it reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (in 2022 and 2018) from the level the Death Cross happened 2014 bottomed a little over the 1.618 Fib).
As a result, if history repeats itself, the above levels create an 'Effective Buy Zone' of $40000 (1.618 Fib) to $36000 (-52%).
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

XRP (XRPUSD) easily hit our 1.4500 Target that we set 1.5 month ago (January 23, see chart below):

The Channel Down remains the dominant pattern long-term, which has been in effect since the July 18 2025 All Time High (ATH), effectively guiding the market through this new Bear Cycle.
Having also tested (and rebounded on) the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) on the February 06 Low, the next technical Target (and Support), is the 1M MA100 (black trend-line). This level is of the utmost significance as it is where the bottom of the previous Bear Cycle was formed (June 13 2022) as well as the July 01 2024 Low. Practically supported the market numerous times from June 2022 to October 2024.
As a result, we expect XRP to re-test that level in the coming short months with our Target being a little higher at $0.9000, which would complete a -62.40% decline from the January 06 2026 High, the same % the market declined from July 18 2025 to October 10 2025.
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$XRP #xrp #Ripple #XRPUSD #XRPUSDT #signals