Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has had a Higher Lows trend-line supporting it that started on the December 2018 Bear Cycle bottom. Last month the price tested it and held. That's part of the long-term Rising Wedge pattern as shown on the chat.
What's also shown is that BTC is no stranger to this pattern. A similar 7-year Rising Wedge broke to the downside during the 2018 Bear Cycle. Even though by the time of the Higher Lows test, BTC had already dropped by -70%, more than almost the -55% of the current (2026) Bear Cycle, today's one is more aggressive as it almost tested the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous Bear Cycle bottom, whereas 2018 was on the 0.236 Fib and bottomed on the 0.382.
This is why we've argued in previous analyses that the 0.5 Fib level is a much more likely candidate for a new bottom and sits around $45000.
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