Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been repeating its 2022 Bear Cycle and we've analyzed that extensively in the past weeks. What we are adding this time is a Pivot Zone, effectively a formed Support turned Resistance in 2022.
That is illustrated by the blue Rectangle and on the 2022 Cycle rejected BTC on the March 30 2022 1W candle, initiating the 3rd Bearish Leg of the pattern.
Now that Pivot Zone acted as the Support for the entirety of 2022 and is so far holding as Resistance, rejecting the price already once last week. With the symmetry incredibly high so far between the 2022 and 2026 Bear Cycles (even prior to them their structures have been similar), it remains to be seen if that Zone will continue to hold and kickstart the 3rd Bearish Leg just like it did on the 2022 pattern.
If it does, expect BTC to easily break below its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and hit the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (blue) around $51000 before rebounding one last time. The eventual Bear Cycle bottom should be within the 1W MA350 (red trend-line) and 1W MA450 (black trend-line), just above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from the November 2022 Bear Cycle bottom.
The 2.0 (blue) Fib ext and that 0.5 Fib (dotted black) form what we call the 'Effective Buy Zone' in the middle of which the previous Bear Cycle bottomed. That is expected to be this time within the $50000 - $45000 range.
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