WEB3小鲨鱼
一个刚进web3的新手小白，悉尼大学金融专业
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🎙️ 晚上好，还TACO不TACO了。
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04 h 09 m 01 s
3.3k
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Participate in the first Agentic AI Innovation Forum Web4.0
Chan Mo Po (Hong Kong Financial Secretary)
Kong Jian Ping (Founder of Nano Labs, Director of Cyberport) a core figure in Hong Kong's Web3 ecosystem
Cai Wen Sheng (Top Angel Investor)
One of China's top investors in Web3/internet
Today's conference has brought a lot of gains, and the content will be updated gradually～～
Chan Mo Po (Hong Kong Financial Secretary)
Kong Jian Ping (Founder of Nano Labs, Director of Cyberport) a core figure in Hong Kong's Web3 ecosystem
Cai Wen Sheng (Top Angel Investor)
One of China's top investors in Web3/internet
Today's conference has brought a lot of gains, and the content will be updated gradually～～
🎙️ 🎙️ Good evening, waiting for new trading opportunities (still 22 hours left to reach 1000h live @CZ @Yi He)
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04 h 13 m 44 s
3k
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To make money in trading, there is an absolute red line: position control;
If you lose 50%, you need a 100% gain to break even.
If you lose 90%, you need a 900% gain to break even.
You made 10 trades of 10%, a total gain of 100%.
Then one loss of 50% brings you right back to square one.
This is why "losing less" is a thousand times more important than "earning more".
A single large loss can wipe out all your small gains.
Compound interest works both ways.
Positive compound interest lets you slowly become rich, while negative compound interest can bring you back to zero in an instant.
So, the ones who truly make money are not the ones who predict market movements the best,
but those who survive the longest. Thus, there is a classic principle in investing: first consider the risks, then consider the returns.
What often widens the gap in long-term returns is not who captured the most bull stocks, but who survived extreme market conditions. A 50% drawdown requires a 100% return to recover, and a 100% return often takes years to accumulate. Those seemingly conservative risk controls—position management, stop-loss discipline, refusal of leverage—are essentially preventing a one-time wipeout from negative compound interest.
#交易纪律
If you lose 50%, you need a 100% gain to break even.
If you lose 90%, you need a 900% gain to break even.
You made 10 trades of 10%, a total gain of 100%.
Then one loss of 50% brings you right back to square one.
This is why "losing less" is a thousand times more important than "earning more".
A single large loss can wipe out all your small gains.
Compound interest works both ways.
Positive compound interest lets you slowly become rich, while negative compound interest can bring you back to zero in an instant.
So, the ones who truly make money are not the ones who predict market movements the best,
but those who survive the longest. Thus, there is a classic principle in investing: first consider the risks, then consider the returns.
What often widens the gap in long-term returns is not who captured the most bull stocks, but who survived extreme market conditions. A 50% drawdown requires a 100% return to recover, and a 100% return often takes years to accumulate. Those seemingly conservative risk controls—position management, stop-loss discipline, refusal of leverage—are essentially preventing a one-time wipeout from negative compound interest.
#交易纪律
The boss's win rate is really impressive
#US regulations have been continuously relaxed, and cryptocurrency stablecoins have transformed into quasi-cash
Conclusion: The "cards" of the whales have already been revealed; this is the institutional bottom of the bull market, not a short-term news bottom.
Brothers, don't be fooled by the candlestick charts. The SEC, CFTC, and NYSE are working together; this is not an ordinary positive signal. My judgment is simple: in the short term, there may still be annoying fluctuations, but medium to long-term bulls can start to enter the market in batches.
Operation: Macro positioning, regulations provide direction
• Short-term (1-2 weeks): Don't chase highs; these are "infrastructure" positives, not a Federal Reserve bailout.
• Medium to long-term: Invest in batches, only buy mainstream.
BTC and ETH are the biggest beneficiaries of this policy, directly used as collateral.
The path for large institutions has already been paved; what we retail investors need to do is not to bet on news but to place our chips on the road they must take before they enter the market.
#BTC#ETH#监管松绑
Conclusion: The "cards" of the whales have already been revealed; this is the institutional bottom of the bull market, not a short-term news bottom.
Brothers, don't be fooled by the candlestick charts. The SEC, CFTC, and NYSE are working together; this is not an ordinary positive signal. My judgment is simple: in the short term, there may still be annoying fluctuations, but medium to long-term bulls can start to enter the market in batches.
Operation: Macro positioning, regulations provide direction
• Short-term (1-2 weeks): Don't chase highs; these are "infrastructure" positives, not a Federal Reserve bailout.
• Medium to long-term: Invest in batches, only buy mainstream.
BTC and ETH are the biggest beneficiaries of this policy, directly used as collateral.
The path for large institutions has already been paved; what we retail investors need to do is not to bet on news but to place our chips on the road they must take before they enter the market.
#BTC#ETH#监管松绑
🎙️ Good evening, you aren't free on the floor, are you?
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03 h 50 m 48 s
3.1k
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#特朗普称美伊或在5天内达成协议
Trump is engaging in a "public opinion game" with Iran, attempting to control the market narrative. In the short term, he has succeeded— the market chooses to trust him first.
BTC is likely to fluctuate in the 68,000-72,000 range waiting for clearer signals. If Iran softens its stance or confirms communication in the next 24-48 hours, it will continue to rise; if Iran firmly denies, there will be a pullback.
Putting three pieces of news together, the context becomes very clear:
1
19:08: Oil plummets (expectations of crisis resolution) + Trump says "productive dialogue" > BTC violently rebounds
2. 19:52: Iran officially denies communication - market tension, basis for rise loosens
3. 21:12: Trump speaks again, saying "an agreement could be reached in 5 days or even sooner"— responding to Iran's denial, strengthening expectations
Trump is forcefully maintaining the "peace talk expectations," telling the market: Iran's denial is not important, negotiations are still progressing, and results will come soon.
#特朗普考虑结束伊朗冲突
Trump is engaging in a "public opinion game" with Iran, attempting to control the market narrative. In the short term, he has succeeded— the market chooses to trust him first.
BTC is likely to fluctuate in the 68,000-72,000 range waiting for clearer signals. If Iran softens its stance or confirms communication in the next 24-48 hours, it will continue to rise; if Iran firmly denies, there will be a pullback.
Putting three pieces of news together, the context becomes very clear:
1
19:08: Oil plummets (expectations of crisis resolution) + Trump says "productive dialogue" > BTC violently rebounds
2. 19:52: Iran officially denies communication - market tension, basis for rise loosens
3. 21:12: Trump speaks again, saying "an agreement could be reached in 5 days or even sooner"— responding to Iran's denial, strengthening expectations
Trump is forcefully maintaining the "peace talk expectations," telling the market: Iran's denial is not important, negotiations are still progressing, and results will come soon.
#特朗普考虑结束伊朗冲突
Iran directly slaps back, the official denies any communication. This means:
The previous "expectations for peace talks" may not hold, or at least not as optimistic as Trump said.
The market's rise based on this expectation is starting to falter.
Trump is true to his name, particularly cheerful and absurd,
He starts drawing K-lines with just one sentence again.
Every day Trump gets up and starts playing his "Minecraft."
#BTC走势分析
Trump says talks happened, Iran says no talks, this level of information game implies that there will be significant fluctuations in the next 24-48 hours.
The previous "expectations for peace talks" may not hold, or at least not as optimistic as Trump said.
The market's rise based on this expectation is starting to falter.
Trump is true to his name, particularly cheerful and absurd,
He starts drawing K-lines with just one sentence again.
Every day Trump gets up and starts playing his "Minecraft."
#BTC走势分析
Trump says talks happened, Iran says no talks, this level of information game implies that there will be significant fluctuations in the next 24-48 hours.
Crude oil plummeted by 13%, Trump announces US-Iran dialogue—expectations of geopolitical crisis resolution directly ignited the market
In just one hour, the total liquidation across the network reached $163 million, with short positions accounting for $144 million. This is not a fundamental change but a standard short squeeze
Crude oil, as the 'mother of inflation,' plummeted, coupled with the resolution of geopolitical risks, causing the market to immediately switch from 'risk-averse mode' to 'bargain hunting mode.'
This is an epic short squeeze and the most direct and violent reason for the rise. In the hour before the screenshot, the total liquidation across the network reached $163 million, with short positions liquidating up to $144 million, accounting for nearly 90%.
The market was previously in extreme panic, accumulating a large number of short contracts on Bitcoin. When positive news emerged and BTC prices began to rise, these short positions had to buy back at any cost to prevent further losses. This buying behavior further pushed up prices, triggering a chain reaction of liquidations, known as a 'short squeeze'
#特朗普考虑结束伊朗冲突
#BTC突破7万大关 l#BTC走势分析
History has proven countless times to cherish every opportunity created by a crisis!
In just one hour, the total liquidation across the network reached $163 million, with short positions accounting for $144 million. This is not a fundamental change but a standard short squeeze
Crude oil, as the 'mother of inflation,' plummeted, coupled with the resolution of geopolitical risks, causing the market to immediately switch from 'risk-averse mode' to 'bargain hunting mode.'
This is an epic short squeeze and the most direct and violent reason for the rise. In the hour before the screenshot, the total liquidation across the network reached $163 million, with short positions liquidating up to $144 million, accounting for nearly 90%.
The market was previously in extreme panic, accumulating a large number of short contracts on Bitcoin. When positive news emerged and BTC prices began to rise, these short positions had to buy back at any cost to prevent further losses. This buying behavior further pushed up prices, triggering a chain reaction of liquidations, known as a 'short squeeze'
#特朗普考虑结束伊朗冲突
#BTC突破7万大关 l#BTC走势分析
History has proven countless times to cherish every opportunity created by a crisis!
Suddenly, a circuit breaker! A plunge of over 2600 points! The Japanese and Korean stock markets have collapsed
This morning, the Japanese and Korean stock markets plummeted, triggering a circuit breaker in Korea, with U.S. stock futures following suit, and even gold facing sell-offs—this is not merely a flight to safety, but the market is panic-selling all risk assets. Iran has launched strikes against U.S. and Israeli targets, and Trump has threatened to attack Iranian power stations within 48 hours, while Iran retaliated with four punitive measures including a "full blockade of the Strait".
Key news to watch: whether the U.S. military will retaliate and whether there will be actual incidents of shipping disruptions in the Strait.
In the short term, liquidity is being squeezed, primarily affecting long positions.
Bitcoin is still treated as a risk asset. The Asia-Pacific market's crash has led institutions to withdraw liquidity, causing BTC to drop in tandem. The futures market faces a double kill for both bulls and bears, especially watchful of secondary sell pressure after U.S. stock market opens at midnight.
Iran's statement emphasizes that it is "currently not closed," distinguishing between "harmful passage" and "innocuous passage"—this is to allow non-U.S. vessels a passageway, avoiding triggering uncontrollable global oil price spikes. However, as long as the friction continues, the risk premium will not dissipate.
After the crash in the Japanese and Korean markets, if Asia-Pacific funds seek stablecoins as a hedge, the off-exchange USDT premium may rise, which is a short-term support signal for BTC.
#BTC trend analysis
This morning, the Japanese and Korean stock markets plummeted, triggering a circuit breaker in Korea, with U.S. stock futures following suit, and even gold facing sell-offs—this is not merely a flight to safety, but the market is panic-selling all risk assets. Iran has launched strikes against U.S. and Israeli targets, and Trump has threatened to attack Iranian power stations within 48 hours, while Iran retaliated with four punitive measures including a "full blockade of the Strait".
Key news to watch: whether the U.S. military will retaliate and whether there will be actual incidents of shipping disruptions in the Strait.
In the short term, liquidity is being squeezed, primarily affecting long positions.
Bitcoin is still treated as a risk asset. The Asia-Pacific market's crash has led institutions to withdraw liquidity, causing BTC to drop in tandem. The futures market faces a double kill for both bulls and bears, especially watchful of secondary sell pressure after U.S. stock market opens at midnight.
Iran's statement emphasizes that it is "currently not closed," distinguishing between "harmful passage" and "innocuous passage"—this is to allow non-U.S. vessels a passageway, avoiding triggering uncontrollable global oil price spikes. However, as long as the friction continues, the risk premium will not dissipate.
After the crash in the Japanese and Korean markets, if Asia-Pacific funds seek stablecoins as a hedge, the off-exchange USDT premium may rise, which is a short-term support signal for BTC.
#BTC trend analysis
🎙️ Good evening, let's take a look at the plate.
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04 h 38 m 51 s
2.8k
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The way Web3 works is truly different from traditional industries.
Looking back, the first time I really stepped into this circle was at Token2049 in Singapore.
That was my first time attending a global Web3 conference, and the venue was almost filled with young people from all over the world.
During the day, there were intensive meetings, sharing sessions, and project exchanges;
In the evening, there were one side event after another, parties, and after parties.
At that time, I truly realized:
Work doesn't have to be confined to a 9-to-5 office.
More often, it involves flying to different cities, attending events, meeting new partners, discussing collaborations, and creating content.
Just like today, a meal or a game seamlessly blends work and life together.
Of course, this industry also has its competitive side.
When the market is good, everyone puts in their utmost effort; when the market declines, anxiety can quietly spread.
But it must be acknowledged that it is young enough, free enough, and global enough.
Occasionally looking back, it really feels quite marvelous.
#BTC #web3
Looking back, the first time I really stepped into this circle was at Token2049 in Singapore.
That was my first time attending a global Web3 conference, and the venue was almost filled with young people from all over the world.
During the day, there were intensive meetings, sharing sessions, and project exchanges;
In the evening, there were one side event after another, parties, and after parties.
At that time, I truly realized:
Work doesn't have to be confined to a 9-to-5 office.
More often, it involves flying to different cities, attending events, meeting new partners, discussing collaborations, and creating content.
Just like today, a meal or a game seamlessly blends work and life together.
Of course, this industry also has its competitive side.
When the market is good, everyone puts in their utmost effort; when the market declines, anxiety can quietly spread.
But it must be acknowledged that it is young enough, free enough, and global enough.
Occasionally looking back, it really feels quite marvelous.
#BTC #web3
#黄金白银为什么暴跌
Understanding this logic is more important than watching the ups and downs
Because the Federal Reserve has not raised interest rates + the released information is a signal of tightening monetary policy, the US dollar index has still appreciated (returning above 100), and gold and silver are priced in US dollars, so as the dollar appreciates, the prices are pushed down.
Understanding this logic is more important than watching the ups and downs
Because the Federal Reserve has not raised interest rates + the released information is a signal of tightening monetary policy, the US dollar index has still appreciated (returning above 100), and gold and silver are priced in US dollars, so as the dollar appreciates, the prices are pushed down.
Friends in the group said they really enjoy listening to me talk about these things, so I'm sharing it out.
Many people think that men pursue women because they like them, but the truth is: they just want to "conquer" a woman to validate their own charm and value.
This psychological drive has given rise to two typical choices:
Look down > easy to deal with, no loss of face, the most comfortable
Look up > admire the strong but also want face, extremely distorted
In short, most men find the most comfortable state is to look down—satisfying their self-esteem without having to endure the pressure of being looked down upon.
And those men who admire strength and care about their image experience the greatest pain: in the process of pursuing the strong, their self-esteem could be trampled at any moment.
Interestingly, when a person stands at the top of the food chain, the source of pleasure changes— for wealthy people, trampling on others' self-esteem is much more enjoyable than trampling on their bodies.
This may be the truth of human nature's game: what men chase is never women, but the recognized "self."
#人性 #币安KOL引荐计划
Many people think that men pursue women because they like them, but the truth is: they just want to "conquer" a woman to validate their own charm and value.
This psychological drive has given rise to two typical choices:
Look down > easy to deal with, no loss of face, the most comfortable
Look up > admire the strong but also want face, extremely distorted
In short, most men find the most comfortable state is to look down—satisfying their self-esteem without having to endure the pressure of being looked down upon.
And those men who admire strength and care about their image experience the greatest pain: in the process of pursuing the strong, their self-esteem could be trampled at any moment.
Interestingly, when a person stands at the top of the food chain, the source of pleasure changes— for wealthy people, trampling on others' self-esteem is much more enjoyable than trampling on their bodies.
This may be the truth of human nature's game: what men chase is never women, but the recognized "self."
#人性 #币安KOL引荐计划
Powell said "no rate cut"
But Bitcoin didn't crash, not because of decoupling, but because the driving logic has changed. What now determines BTC's direction is not the Federal Reserve's dot plot,
Middle East situation
ETF institutional funds
Demand for safe-haven in "non-sovereign assets"
Points to watch moving forward
1. Can 72,000 quickly recover: If it stands above 73,000 in the next one or two days, this drop will be just a washout
2. ETF capital flow: If it breaks and ETF continues to see net outflows, that would be the real danger
3. Oil prices: If WTI falls below 90 dollars, the inflation pressure
Easing is good for BTC
Conclusion: 72,000 just broke, but it's not the end of the world—key is how the next 48 hours unfold. Stay calm and watch the market reaction after Powell's remarks
#BTC走势分析
But Bitcoin didn't crash, not because of decoupling, but because the driving logic has changed. What now determines BTC's direction is not the Federal Reserve's dot plot,
Middle East situation
ETF institutional funds
Demand for safe-haven in "non-sovereign assets"
Points to watch moving forward
1. Can 72,000 quickly recover: If it stands above 73,000 in the next one or two days, this drop will be just a washout
2. ETF capital flow: If it breaks and ETF continues to see net outflows, that would be the real danger
3. Oil prices: If WTI falls below 90 dollars, the inflation pressure
Easing is good for BTC
Conclusion: 72,000 just broke, but it's not the end of the world—key is how the next 48 hours unfold. Stay calm and watch the market reaction after Powell's remarks
#BTC走势分析
Cognition itself is a form of value; there is no one deceiving another or taking advantage of someone. It's all just a game between people.
#美联储3月议息会议
#美联储3月议息会议
1. The Federal Reserve does not lower interest rates (main reason): The conflict in the Middle East has pushed up oil prices, making inflation hard to decrease - the market is hesitant to bet on rate cuts. In a high-interest-rate environment, holding non-interest-bearing gold becomes less attractive.
2. Capital has fled: The dollar index has surged to a 10-month high, with funds flowing out of gold to buy dollar assets; coupled with the previous high-position leveraged positions being liquidated, this has created a cascade effect.
Institutions generally see $4900-$5000 as strong support, and the next level to watch is $4600-$4700. My gold fund needs to be liquidated. I'll buy back when gold prices stabilize or when the Federal Reserve makes a statement.
Key point: At 2 AM tonight, the Federal Reserve will announce interest rates. If the statement is dovish (two rate cuts), it will be positive. If Bitcoin holds above $74000, capital may flow back to risk assets, and if Bitcoin breaks through $76000, we will look towards $78000!
#黄金跌破5000
2. Capital has fled: The dollar index has surged to a 10-month high, with funds flowing out of gold to buy dollar assets; coupled with the previous high-position leveraged positions being liquidated, this has created a cascade effect.
Institutions generally see $4900-$5000 as strong support, and the next level to watch is $4600-$4700. My gold fund needs to be liquidated. I'll buy back when gold prices stabilize or when the Federal Reserve makes a statement.
Key point: At 2 AM tonight, the Federal Reserve will announce interest rates. If the statement is dovish (two rate cuts), it will be positive. If Bitcoin holds above $74000, capital may flow back to risk assets, and if Bitcoin breaks through $76000, we will look towards $78000!
#黄金跌破5000
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