DA-Niu
公众号：大牛说行情 （币圈8年实战经验，对行情有独立的见解，仓位运用到极致，擅长短中线布局）
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🚀 From the beginning to the end, we have been conveying the correct trading philosophy and effective analytical methods. We do not deliberately show off skills or make technical analysis overly complicated with dense structures. In fact, many times we don't even use indicators, nor do we rely on a set of tools or a specific structural model to apply in every situation. Instead, we adapt based on the current circumstances. The most important point in price pattern analysis is that any pattern analysis cannot be isolated from the context of the price trend; it must be tracked, understood, and applied in conjunction with the trend background of the price pattern.
🤙 Everyone is curious about how Niu Ge operates and lays out strategies? It feels consistently stable? Let's reveal it:
First: Join the membership.
Second: Understand the trading preferences of the members, separating (spot/contract).
Third: Based on members' feedback on their positions, formulate a targeted position and leverage plan.
Fourth: After joining, the trading process is divided into two phases: initial trading and post-profit trading evaluation, followed by further adjustments to the position and leverage plan.
Fifth: Follow-up suggestions after profits: for example, some may want to exit the market, or continue; if continuing, how should we lay out our assets?
In the cryptocurrency space over the years, Niu Ge's strategies have been good and yield high returns, all benefiting from a well-organized trading plan. Without sufficient self-discipline, it is challenging to execute.
Some investors, due to various reasons, cannot maintain enough 'self-discipline', so choosing to follow Niu Ge is a very correct decision.
Of course, the simplest thing in life is 'choice', and the most important thing is also 'choice'. Choosing correctly makes life feel like a cheat code; choosing incorrectly leads to a deep abyss.
Therefore, it’s not just about collecting members; after joining, one needs a responsible attitude to guide.
Lastly, I remind all investors to make rational 'choices'.
🚀🚀🚀 There are many people who provide signals in the cryptocurrency space; I can’t say I’m the best, but I can guarantee that everyone will at least profit several times while ensuring the principal in a bull market. That’s all for now, there’s no upper limit; I don’t even know how much can be earned this time, and I’m a bit excited.
🤙 Everyone is curious about how Niu Ge operates and lays out strategies? It feels consistently stable? Let's reveal it:
First: Join the membership.
Second: Understand the trading preferences of the members, separating (spot/contract).
Third: Based on members' feedback on their positions, formulate a targeted position and leverage plan.
Fourth: After joining, the trading process is divided into two phases: initial trading and post-profit trading evaluation, followed by further adjustments to the position and leverage plan.
Fifth: Follow-up suggestions after profits: for example, some may want to exit the market, or continue; if continuing, how should we lay out our assets?
In the cryptocurrency space over the years, Niu Ge's strategies have been good and yield high returns, all benefiting from a well-organized trading plan. Without sufficient self-discipline, it is challenging to execute.
Some investors, due to various reasons, cannot maintain enough 'self-discipline', so choosing to follow Niu Ge is a very correct decision.
Of course, the simplest thing in life is 'choice', and the most important thing is also 'choice'. Choosing correctly makes life feel like a cheat code; choosing incorrectly leads to a deep abyss.
Therefore, it’s not just about collecting members; after joining, one needs a responsible attitude to guide.
Lastly, I remind all investors to make rational 'choices'.
🚀🚀🚀 There are many people who provide signals in the cryptocurrency space; I can’t say I’m the best, but I can guarantee that everyone will at least profit several times while ensuring the principal in a bull market. That’s all for now, there’s no upper limit; I don’t even know how much can be earned this time, and I’m a bit excited.
See translation
比特币延续反弹压力山大，谨慎追涨，不要无脑冲！3月31日行情分析
早间资讯：
1.Strategy 过去一周未购买任何比特币;
2. Bitmine 上周增持 7.11 万枚 ETH，目前持有 ETH 供应量的 3.92%;3.伊朗议会批准对霍尔木兹海峡征收通行费的法案:
4.美媒:特朗普愿在霍尔木兹海峡关闭状态下结束伊朗战争;
5.CFTC 将参考 NFL 意见，收紧预测市场合约监管;
6.Robinhood:三月迄今加密货币名义交易量 160 亿美元，预测市场交易量 26 亿美元;
7.美国共和党提出“美国挖矿法案”，推动扩展挖矿并巩固比特币储备;
8.比尔阿克曼:优质企业正以极低价格交易，当前是购买优质资产最佳时机:
9.伯恩斯坦:加密股票自 2025 年高点下跌约 60%，当前为“大幅折价买入”机会;
10.美参议员质疑 SEC 高层变动及撤销孙宇晨案件决定，
所谓美联储的代言人，对普通交易者而言其实毫无意义。他们本质上只代表身后的财阀与资本集团，负责粉饰太平、稳定预期，绝不会在金融危机前夜告诉你真相，更不会提醒你提前避险逃生。听这些资本喉舌发声，只当耳边风、一阵风吹过即可，不必当真。我们真正要做的，是自己去挖掘真实数据，独立判断，提前做出预判与布局。
比特币中线下跌趋势行情已经悄然开启，短期的死猫反弹波动改变不了下跌趋势。6.8 万附近是一个很强的阻力价位区域也是价格跌破48日上升趋势线后的反弹后续横盘震荡几天后价格大概率会大跌。
如图大家不妨细看，BTC 周线第 2浪与第4浪，形态高度相似:
1.震荡结构与周期
第 2浪:震荡约 60 天，结构为上升通道:
第 4浪:震荡约 50 天，同样走出上升通道。
2.破位后走势第 2 浪跌破通道下沿后，回踩确认、弱势反弹，横盘3天随即大幅下跌;第 4浪现已完成破位回踩与弱势反弹，横盘已持续2天:按此结构推演，BTC大概率在再横盘2~3天后出现暴跌叠加 4月初美国将陆续公布多项核心经济数据，市场预期偏空，或将成为 BTC大幅下挫的化剂。4 月初，BTC 走势将愈发凶险，风险显著加大。
想第一时间跟上结构判断、关键点位、波段思路，不踩诱多陷阱？ 欢迎来我的学习交流群。 群内日常分享： 技术结构讲解、关键位置分析、仓位风控、实时思路提醒、各类交易干货。 市场有风险，交易需谨慎。
以上内容仅为个人思路分享，不构成投资建议，据此操作盈亏自负。
1.Strategy 过去一周未购买任何比特币;
2. Bitmine 上周增持 7.11 万枚 ETH，目前持有 ETH 供应量的 3.92%;3.伊朗议会批准对霍尔木兹海峡征收通行费的法案:
4.美媒:特朗普愿在霍尔木兹海峡关闭状态下结束伊朗战争;
5.CFTC 将参考 NFL 意见，收紧预测市场合约监管;
6.Robinhood:三月迄今加密货币名义交易量 160 亿美元，预测市场交易量 26 亿美元;
7.美国共和党提出“美国挖矿法案”，推动扩展挖矿并巩固比特币储备;
8.比尔阿克曼:优质企业正以极低价格交易，当前是购买优质资产最佳时机:
9.伯恩斯坦:加密股票自 2025 年高点下跌约 60%，当前为“大幅折价买入”机会;
10.美参议员质疑 SEC 高层变动及撤销孙宇晨案件决定，
所谓美联储的代言人，对普通交易者而言其实毫无意义。他们本质上只代表身后的财阀与资本集团，负责粉饰太平、稳定预期，绝不会在金融危机前夜告诉你真相，更不会提醒你提前避险逃生。听这些资本喉舌发声，只当耳边风、一阵风吹过即可，不必当真。我们真正要做的，是自己去挖掘真实数据，独立判断，提前做出预判与布局。
比特币中线下跌趋势行情已经悄然开启，短期的死猫反弹波动改变不了下跌趋势。6.8 万附近是一个很强的阻力价位区域也是价格跌破48日上升趋势线后的反弹后续横盘震荡几天后价格大概率会大跌。
如图大家不妨细看，BTC 周线第 2浪与第4浪，形态高度相似:
1.震荡结构与周期
第 2浪:震荡约 60 天，结构为上升通道:
第 4浪:震荡约 50 天，同样走出上升通道。
2.破位后走势第 2 浪跌破通道下沿后，回踩确认、弱势反弹，横盘3天随即大幅下跌;第 4浪现已完成破位回踩与弱势反弹，横盘已持续2天:按此结构推演，BTC大概率在再横盘2~3天后出现暴跌叠加 4月初美国将陆续公布多项核心经济数据，市场预期偏空，或将成为 BTC大幅下挫的化剂。4 月初，BTC 走势将愈发凶险，风险显著加大。
想第一时间跟上结构判断、关键点位、波段思路，不踩诱多陷阱？ 欢迎来我的学习交流群。 群内日常分享： 技术结构讲解、关键位置分析、仓位风控、实时思路提醒、各类交易干货。 市场有风险，交易需谨慎。
以上内容仅为个人思路分享，不构成投资建议，据此操作盈亏自负。
New week begins! BTC breaking point is imminent; breaking six is just a matter of time? March 30 market analysis
The market is in extreme panic, and the Fear & Greed Index has entered the extreme range alongside the hoarding coin index after a month.
Today, the panic sentiment in the market has further intensified. The Fear & Greed Index and the national currency index have both entered the extreme range simultaneously for the first time in a month: Fear & Greed Index: hit a new low in nearly a month, currently reported at 8, classified as 'Extreme Fear'; BTC-ahr999 National Currency Index: at its lowest level in nearly a month, currently reported at 0.4458, entering the 'Bottom Buying Zone'. Market fluctuations may be significant, please pay attention to risk control.
The U.S. military is preparing for ground operations against Iran, which has warned of retaliation, while Pakistan plans to mediate.
Today, the panic sentiment in the market has further intensified. The Fear & Greed Index and the national currency index have both entered the extreme range simultaneously for the first time in a month: Fear & Greed Index: hit a new low in nearly a month, currently reported at 8, classified as 'Extreme Fear'; BTC-ahr999 National Currency Index: at its lowest level in nearly a month, currently reported at 0.4458, entering the 'Bottom Buying Zone'. Market fluctuations may be significant, please pay attention to risk control.
The U.S. military is preparing for ground operations against Iran, which has warned of retaliation, while Pakistan plans to mediate.
Share a profit chart from a fan friend; this chart is actually the most typical "negative teaching material" in trading.
The profit and loss ratio is seriously unbalanced: the amount of a single loss far exceeds that of a single profit, which means that a significant loss can wipe out the profits of numerous small gains before.
Risk control is severely lacking: there was a situation of a single-day loss of 2000+U, indicating that the stop-loss discipline has almost failed, and there are no protective measures during extreme market conditions.
Emotional trading traces are obvious: monthly performance fluctuates greatly, indicating that operations are easily influenced by profits and losses; when earning, one is elated, when losing, one becomes anxious, frequently over-leveraging or holding positions. Overall capital curve continues to decline: in the past year, accumulated losses have reached 36,000+ U, which is no longer just a matter of bad luck but rather indicates that there is a problem with the systematic trading method or risk control logic.
The profit and loss ratio is seriously unbalanced: the amount of a single loss far exceeds that of a single profit, which means that a significant loss can wipe out the profits of numerous small gains before.
Risk control is severely lacking: there was a situation of a single-day loss of 2000+U, indicating that the stop-loss discipline has almost failed, and there are no protective measures during extreme market conditions.
Emotional trading traces are obvious: monthly performance fluctuates greatly, indicating that operations are easily influenced by profits and losses; when earning, one is elated, when losing, one becomes anxious, frequently over-leveraging or holding positions. Overall capital curve continues to decline: in the past year, accumulated losses have reached 36,000+ U, which is no longer just a matter of bad luck but rather indicates that there is a problem with the systematic trading method or risk control logic.
What impact will the Houthis' involvement in the war and support for Iran have? What impact will it have on BTC?
The Houthis have publicly announced the completion of military preparations and may launch strikes or implement blockades on the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait at any time to show support for Iran.
Looking back at 2023-2025, the Houthis have attacked hundreds of merchant ships using drones, missiles, and speedboats, directly causing a 90% drop in shipping volume in the Red Sea. Major global shipping companies were forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, extending travel times by two weeks and significantly increasing freight, fuel, and insurance costs.
And this time, the impact goes far beyond emotional shocks; it directly cuts off a key alternative export route for Middle Eastern crude oil: originally, under the ongoing tension in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia and some Gulf countries could still transport crude oil to Red Sea ports through east-west pipelines to avoid the risks of Hormuz. Once the Houthis block the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, this alternative route will also become ineffective. Market concerns will escalate from 'increased costs for tankers to take detours' to whether Middle Eastern crude can be supplied normally to Europe and Asia, and the geopolitical risk premium on oil prices will continue to rise, potentially evolving into a substantial supply shock.
Looking back at 2023-2025, the Houthis have attacked hundreds of merchant ships using drones, missiles, and speedboats, directly causing a 90% drop in shipping volume in the Red Sea. Major global shipping companies were forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, extending travel times by two weeks and significantly increasing freight, fuel, and insurance costs.
And this time, the impact goes far beyond emotional shocks; it directly cuts off a key alternative export route for Middle Eastern crude oil: originally, under the ongoing tension in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia and some Gulf countries could still transport crude oil to Red Sea ports through east-west pipelines to avoid the risks of Hormuz. Once the Houthis block the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, this alternative route will also become ineffective. Market concerns will escalate from 'increased costs for tankers to take detours' to whether Middle Eastern crude can be supplied normally to Europe and Asia, and the geopolitical risk premium on oil prices will continue to rise, potentially evolving into a substantial supply shock.
BTC has accurately reached the take-profit level, current price 66.2k. The market needs to digest profit-taking over the weekend, and the long positions have basically been cleared.
My strategy:
If the price can stabilize above 66k on Sunday, I will try a small long position, keeping room for additional purchases and stop-loss;
If it falls to the 64.5k–65.2k range, then I will buy in batches from the left side.
The current market is still in a panic structure, and most people are bearish about a crash. I choose to wait for the last washout before laying out again, or to try with three batches of very small positions.
Remember: reasonable position management is the core of long-term survival in the market.
My strategy:
If the price can stabilize above 66k on Sunday, I will try a small long position, keeping room for additional purchases and stop-loss;
If it falls to the 64.5k–65.2k range, then I will buy in batches from the left side.
The current market is still in a panic structure, and most people are bearish about a crash. I choose to wait for the last washout before laying out again, or to try with three batches of very small positions.
Remember: reasonable position management is the core of long-term survival in the market.
Bullish volume returns to zero, the ascending channel is broken, and the downtrend of BTC has been confirmed!
One must cherish the bear market; without the bear market, ordinary people cannot make big money at all. Without a bear market, where do so many bloodied low-priced chips come from? The bear market is also the best training ground for mindset. True traders should be happier the more it falls — because after falling for a while, you can buy more of your desired valuable coins with the same amount of money. There are many coins I wish would halve and halve again; with the same capital, I can get more chips, which is the most reassuring joy.
Friends who have seriously followed the analysis this week and executed it, during the drop from 72,000 to 66,000, have been able to hold steady and capture the entire profit. The market was extremely thin on Saturday, and the bullish volume of BTC on the four-hour level has shrunk to a freezing point. Global capital is holding its breath waiting — Trump is likely to make a significant move this weekend, which will probably ignite the global market! On the technical side, BTC's daily line has effectively broken below the lower track of the ascending channel, and the trend has completely turned bearish. The current key support is in the range of 62,500 to 63,000. Once it is lost, the next stop will directly look at the round figure of 60,000.
Friends who have seriously followed the analysis this week and executed it, during the drop from 72,000 to 66,000, have been able to hold steady and capture the entire profit. The market was extremely thin on Saturday, and the bullish volume of BTC on the four-hour level has shrunk to a freezing point. Global capital is holding its breath waiting — Trump is likely to make a significant move this weekend, which will probably ignite the global market! On the technical side, BTC's daily line has effectively broken below the lower track of the ascending channel, and the trend has completely turned bearish. The current key support is in the range of 62,500 to 63,000. Once it is lost, the next stop will directly look at the round figure of 60,000.
It was clearly stated yesterday afternoon: Ethereum is relying on the 2000 level to hold, don't expect a direct reversal, after consolidation look at 1960. As a result, the market directly hit 1966 in the evening, and the trend is basically consistent with our prediction.
Must a true major bottom first experience a bloody cleaning? March 27 Bitcoin market analysis
Brothers, the panic index has hit 10 again! The Bitcoin market is so real: it struggles to rise three to four thousand points in a week, only to drop back within a few hours, a typical bear market pattern, summarized in four words — slow rise, rapid fall.
Looking back at the previous layout idea centered on shorting, it has now been validated one by one. In a bear market structure, the only correct operation is to short. Just because there is a rebound or a green candle does not mean we are in a bull market; it's not that easy. If the bottom does not go through a round of severe washing and a long period of oscillation to accumulate positions, it simply does not have the strength to truly rise. Some may say: Wasn't that wave on March 12 just a direct rise without a long bottoming process? You need to understand what the environment was like back then — a direct drop of 50% on that day was itself an extreme washout. In that kind of market, except for holding spot, those with leverage basically all blew up, and there were almost no bulls left in the market, panic to the extreme, all selling pressure. The main force only needs to slowly accumulate chips at a low position, with no counterparty and no liquidity, the price can naturally oscillate upwards. Looking back at the bottom of 2022, it also repeatedly ground after a continuous drop in a very small range; all true major bottoms must have a round of cleaning beforehand.
Looking back at the previous layout idea centered on shorting, it has now been validated one by one. In a bear market structure, the only correct operation is to short. Just because there is a rebound or a green candle does not mean we are in a bull market; it's not that easy. If the bottom does not go through a round of severe washing and a long period of oscillation to accumulate positions, it simply does not have the strength to truly rise. Some may say: Wasn't that wave on March 12 just a direct rise without a long bottoming process? You need to understand what the environment was like back then — a direct drop of 50% on that day was itself an extreme washout. In that kind of market, except for holding spot, those with leverage basically all blew up, and there were almost no bulls left in the market, panic to the extreme, all selling pressure. The main force only needs to slowly accumulate chips at a low position, with no counterparty and no liquidity, the price can naturally oscillate upwards. Looking back at the bottom of 2022, it also repeatedly ground after a continuous drop in a very small range; all true major bottoms must have a round of cleaning beforehand.
Geopolitical conflict news impact, global financial volatility amplified! Bitcoin market analysis on March 25
A quarter of 2026 is about to pass in the blink of an eye, and the market remains lukewarm. Additionally, with the continuous escalation of the US-Iran conflict and rising oil prices, many traders have begun to worry about rising prices and increased inflationary pressures, fearing that the entire financial market will follow with a sharp decline.
There are still many people who firmly believe that: interest rate hikes mean a bear market, while interest rate cuts will lead to a bull market. Since there have been no interest rate cuts this year, a bull market is simply out of the question.
This view is actually very subjective; people are just habitually anchoring to past experiences: the big bull market in 2020 was due to the Federal Reserve's monetary easing and interest rate cuts, while the bear market in 2022 was due to interest rate hikes and tightening, thus simply concluding that 'interest rate hikes lead to bear markets and interest rate cuts lead to bull markets.'
There are still many people who firmly believe that: interest rate hikes mean a bear market, while interest rate cuts will lead to a bull market. Since there have been no interest rate cuts this year, a bull market is simply out of the question.
This view is actually very subjective; people are just habitually anchoring to past experiences: the big bull market in 2020 was due to the Federal Reserve's monetary easing and interest rate cuts, while the bear market in 2022 was due to interest rate hikes and tightening, thus simply concluding that 'interest rate hikes lead to bear markets and interest rate cuts lead to bull markets.'
Rapid Pullback and Adjustments Hide Risks, Is Resistance at 72000 Confirmed? Bitcoin Market Analysis on March 24
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 92.8%.
On March 24, CME's 'FedWatch' data showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 7.2%, while the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 928%. The cumulative probability of a 25 basis point increase by June is 9.1%, the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point increase is 0.2%, and the probability of maintaining the rate unchanged is 90.7%.
Bitcoin remains above $70,000, and its trend may be affected by U.S.-Iran negotiations.
Bitcoin's price broke through $70,000 and maintained its increase. This came after U.S. President Trump announced a five-day suspension of attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure, leading to a general rebound in the cryptocurrency market. Major tokens like Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin rose by about 5%, and cryptocurrency mining-related stocks rose with the stock market, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices both increasing by about 1.2%. Analysts believe that Bitcoin's future trend may be influenced by oil prices in the Strait of Hormuz and shipping stability. If the situation eases, it could support prices testing the range of $74,000 to $76,000; if it worsens, it may fall back to around $65,000.
On March 24, CME's 'FedWatch' data showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 7.2%, while the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 928%. The cumulative probability of a 25 basis point increase by June is 9.1%, the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point increase is 0.2%, and the probability of maintaining the rate unchanged is 90.7%.
Bitcoin remains above $70,000, and its trend may be affected by U.S.-Iran negotiations.
Bitcoin's price broke through $70,000 and maintained its increase. This came after U.S. President Trump announced a five-day suspension of attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure, leading to a general rebound in the cryptocurrency market. Major tokens like Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin rose by about 5%, and cryptocurrency mining-related stocks rose with the stock market, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices both increasing by about 1.2%. Analysts believe that Bitcoin's future trend may be influenced by oil prices in the Strait of Hormuz and shipping stability. If the situation eases, it could support prices testing the range of $74,000 to $76,000; if it worsens, it may fall back to around $65,000.
Market sentiment accurately predicted, don’t hesitate and miss the best opportunity - March 23 Bitcoin market analysis
Every weekend, what everyone worries about the most is that Trump will do something unexpected again. Just when we thought we could safely make it to Sunday, trouble came again. A few days ago, he confidently stated that he would ensure the free passage of the Strait of Hormuz; now, he indeed 'keeps his promise,' directly threatening during the day: if Iran does not open the strait within 48 hours, the United States will completely destroy Iran's power plants.
Iran's response that night was also quite strong: not only did it announce a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but it also threatened to launch retaliatory strikes targeting Middle Eastern energy and related infrastructure. Iran is also very aware that direct confrontation with the United States is unrealistic, so it has turned its focus towards its allies. Iranian officials have stated that they will shift from a defensive mode to an offensive mode and have already stored enough operational supplies to last at least a year.
Iran's response that night was also quite strong: not only did it announce a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but it also threatened to launch retaliatory strikes targeting Middle Eastern energy and related infrastructure. Iran is also very aware that direct confrontation with the United States is unrealistic, so it has turned its focus towards its allies. Iranian officials have stated that they will shift from a defensive mode to an offensive mode and have already stored enough operational supplies to last at least a year.
Don't be misled by the rebound; the real direction is here! March 20 Bitcoin market analysis
Geopolitical conflicts continue to escalate, and the real moment of panic may not have arrived yet. Here in the spot market, everyone should stay calm and not rush to take action. When it's time to accumulate at the bottom, I will remind everyone immediately.
Now is both the most challenging stage in history and a stage full of great opportunities; crises have always been a mix of danger and opportunity. Be patient and act like a top hunter — truly skilled hunters often disguise themselves as prey, quietly waiting for the best moment.
The core of trading lies in prioritizing logic and validating trends. Every fluctuation in the market hides opportunities for pre-arranged strategies. We insist on deriving direction from structure and determining entry and exit points based on key levels, not swayed by market sentiment. Our previous predictions once again align with market trends; we clearly pointed out that Bitcoin will continue its downward oscillation trend. Even if a rebound occurs, it must first test the crucial support level of 69500–69000. In the short term, we suggest gradually positioning short orders above 72000.
Now is both the most challenging stage in history and a stage full of great opportunities; crises have always been a mix of danger and opportunity. Be patient and act like a top hunter — truly skilled hunters often disguise themselves as prey, quietly waiting for the best moment.
The core of trading lies in prioritizing logic and validating trends. Every fluctuation in the market hides opportunities for pre-arranged strategies. We insist on deriving direction from structure and determining entry and exit points based on key levels, not swayed by market sentiment. Our previous predictions once again align with market trends; we clearly pointed out that Bitcoin will continue its downward oscillation trend. Even if a rebound occurs, it must first test the crucial support level of 69500–69000. In the short term, we suggest gradually positioning short orders above 72000.
5157% profit! The position forgotten by the member surprisingly hides the most ruthless ‘lying win’ script in the crypto circle.
March 19, 2026, 4:20 PM, just past afternoon tea time in the UTC+8 time zone.
I just finished organizing the review content for the day when my phone suddenly popped up a message from a friend. Opening it, I saw a member from last year’s ‘Big Bull Study Group,’ with their avatar lit up, sending a screenshot and a shocking message that made my phone tremble: “Big Bull, I’m stunned! Is this me?!”
The screenshot shows a familiar black background, with golden flowing text that dazzles the eyes — +5,157.38%.
ETHUSDT perpetual contract, 100x leverage, short position, currently held. Opening price 4480, mark price 2169.49.
I just finished organizing the review content for the day when my phone suddenly popped up a message from a friend. Opening it, I saw a member from last year’s ‘Big Bull Study Group,’ with their avatar lit up, sending a screenshot and a shocking message that made my phone tremble: “Big Bull, I’m stunned! Is this me?!”
The screenshot shows a familiar black background, with golden flowing text that dazzles the eyes — +5,157.38%.
ETHUSDT perpetual contract, 100x leverage, short position, currently held. Opening price 4480, mark price 2169.49.
After the release of the previous article "What is left-side trading? What is right-side trading?", it has attracted a lot of attention from friends. Many partners expressed that although they are interested, they still find it a bit vague to understand. Therefore, we specifically provided a detailed explanation within the community to help everyone grasp the core logic of left and right-side trading more clearly and thoroughly. If you have any other trading knowledge points you want to learn about, feel free to message me anytime, and I will do my best to analyze it for everyone and meet your learning needs.
Medium-term gain of 5000 points! The market follows the script completely! Bitcoin market analysis on March 19
Key points from this morning's Federal Reserve meeting:
Interest rates unchanged: maintained at 3.5%–3.75%, in line with expectations.
Hawkish stance: expectations for interest rate cuts this year have cooled, likely only one cut, and no cuts if inflation does not improve.
Economic outlook: raised inflation and GDP forecasts, economy is relatively strong.
Powell's key points: does not rule out the possibility of rate hikes, temporarily disregards energy price fluctuations caused by geopolitical conflicts.
Market impact: liquidity expectations tightening, bearish for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Returning to the market, there are no surprises, only pre-judgments landing. Every market development is the best verification of trading logic. The previous layout is now being realized! Last week I mentioned that the weekly chart is clearly bullish, and a direct drop is too contradictory. It must first break to a new high, clear the liquidity above, and then turn down, forming a long upper shadow bearish candle before transitioning to a bearish trend; this is the most reasonable approach. We strictly followed the plan and waited until a new high above 75000 appeared before starting to lay out short positions, and now the medium-term position has already secured a gain of 5000 points.
Interest rates unchanged: maintained at 3.5%–3.75%, in line with expectations.
Hawkish stance: expectations for interest rate cuts this year have cooled, likely only one cut, and no cuts if inflation does not improve.
Economic outlook: raised inflation and GDP forecasts, economy is relatively strong.
Powell's key points: does not rule out the possibility of rate hikes, temporarily disregards energy price fluctuations caused by geopolitical conflicts.
Market impact: liquidity expectations tightening, bearish for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Returning to the market, there are no surprises, only pre-judgments landing. Every market development is the best verification of trading logic. The previous layout is now being realized! Last week I mentioned that the weekly chart is clearly bullish, and a direct drop is too contradictory. It must first break to a new high, clear the liquidity above, and then turn down, forming a long upper shadow bearish candle before transitioning to a bearish trend; this is the most reasonable approach. We strictly followed the plan and waited until a new high above 75000 appeared before starting to lay out short positions, and now the medium-term position has already secured a gain of 5000 points.
Bitcoin's rise and fall verifies the thought process, the top range is initially appearing! March 18 market analysis
Market fluctuations wait for no one; a clear and firm trading mindset is key. Every critical decision at key positions is a test of awareness and mentality. Based on structure, respecting trends, we will help you see the current market situation and seize core trading opportunities.
Data aspect: For the sixth consecutive working day, the net inflow of BTC spot ETF has occurred. Although the inflow is still not significant and is mainly led by BlackRock investors, there is still a noticeable continuous buying trend, giving the impression that the market is gradually improving. However, my personal view remains unchanged; the war is still the main factor affecting the market. As long as the war is not over, it will be difficult to shake off the impact of geopolitical conflicts.
Data aspect: For the sixth consecutive working day, the net inflow of BTC spot ETF has occurred. Although the inflow is still not significant and is mainly led by BlackRock investors, there is still a noticeable continuous buying trend, giving the impression that the market is gradually improving. However, my personal view remains unchanged; the war is still the main factor affecting the market. As long as the war is not over, it will be difficult to shake off the impact of geopolitical conflicts.
The market is concerned about the U.S.-Europe trade war, Bitcoin briefly fell over 3%! Analysis on January 19
The market is concerned about the U.S.-Europe trade war, Bitcoin briefly fell over 3%
On January 19, The Block reported that due to market concerns about a potential trade war between the U.S. and the EU, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the entire crypto market experienced a sharp drop in the early morning, with Bitcoin once falling below $92,000, briefly dropping over 3%. In the past 4 hours, the amount of long positions liquidated has exceeded $750 million. Presto Research analyst Min Jung stated that the crypto market still appears weak compared to other asset classes, and investors are more inclined to allocate to other risk assets.
Citi predicts that the return rate of U.S. growth stocks will reach 17% in 2026
Citi released the (2026 Global Investment Outlook) and predicts that U.S. growth stocks still have room for growth, with an expected return rate of about 17% for the S&P 500 growth stocks, and an expected return rate of up to 21% for the S&P 600 small-cap value stocks. In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve may lower the policy interest rate to below 2.5% in 2026, while the European Central Bank is expected to maintain the policy interest rate at 2% at least until 2027.
On January 19, The Block reported that due to market concerns about a potential trade war between the U.S. and the EU, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the entire crypto market experienced a sharp drop in the early morning, with Bitcoin once falling below $92,000, briefly dropping over 3%. In the past 4 hours, the amount of long positions liquidated has exceeded $750 million. Presto Research analyst Min Jung stated that the crypto market still appears weak compared to other asset classes, and investors are more inclined to allocate to other risk assets.
Citi predicts that the return rate of U.S. growth stocks will reach 17% in 2026
Citi released the (2026 Global Investment Outlook) and predicts that U.S. growth stocks still have room for growth, with an expected return rate of about 17% for the S&P 500 growth stocks, and an expected return rate of up to 21% for the S&P 600 small-cap value stocks. In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve may lower the policy interest rate to below 2.5% in 2026, while the European Central Bank is expected to maintain the policy interest rate at 2% at least until 2027.
Follow the Trend to the End! Bitcoin Market Analysis on November 24
Altcoins have encountered their bleakest moment since the FTX collapse, but this also represents an undervalued investment opportunity.
DeFiance Capital CEO Arthur Cheong stated on X that this may be the bleakest period for altcoins since the FTX collapse in November 2022. More than half of the trading varieties are at historic lows, and even though Bitcoin has seen a rebound, they show no signs of stopping their decline. However, for investors with a horizon of over a year, the current market is nurturing severely undervalued investment opportunities.
NYDIG: Factors driving Bitcoin demand have reversed, but the long-term trend remains unchanged.
NYDIG research director Greg Cipolaro pointed out in the latest report that inflows into cryptocurrency ETFs and DAT demand previously drove Bitcoin prices to historic highs, but currently, these factors have led to price declines. He mentioned that the liquidation event in early October triggered outflows from ETFs, a significant drop in DAT premiums, and a reduction in stablecoin supply, indicating that funds are withdrawing from the market. Spot Bitcoin ETFs were once the highlight of this cycle but have now become a hindrance to Bitcoin's development. Nevertheless, global liquidity and macroeconomic dynamics still affect Bitcoin. Bitcoin's dominance typically rises during cyclical corrections but has now fallen from over 60% in early November to about 58%. Cipolaro emphasized that despite the market correction, there is still some cushion in the DAT space, and no signs of financial distress have appeared. He believes the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains optimistic, but warns investors to prepare for potential risks.
DeFiance Capital CEO Arthur Cheong stated on X that this may be the bleakest period for altcoins since the FTX collapse in November 2022. More than half of the trading varieties are at historic lows, and even though Bitcoin has seen a rebound, they show no signs of stopping their decline. However, for investors with a horizon of over a year, the current market is nurturing severely undervalued investment opportunities.
NYDIG: Factors driving Bitcoin demand have reversed, but the long-term trend remains unchanged.
NYDIG research director Greg Cipolaro pointed out in the latest report that inflows into cryptocurrency ETFs and DAT demand previously drove Bitcoin prices to historic highs, but currently, these factors have led to price declines. He mentioned that the liquidation event in early October triggered outflows from ETFs, a significant drop in DAT premiums, and a reduction in stablecoin supply, indicating that funds are withdrawing from the market. Spot Bitcoin ETFs were once the highlight of this cycle but have now become a hindrance to Bitcoin's development. Nevertheless, global liquidity and macroeconomic dynamics still affect Bitcoin. Bitcoin's dominance typically rises during cyclical corrections but has now fallen from over 60% in early November to about 58%. Cipolaro emphasized that despite the market correction, there is still some cushion in the DAT space, and no signs of financial distress have appeared. He believes the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains optimistic, but warns investors to prepare for potential risks.
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