Crypto海绵

This wave of TRB has directly increased by almost twice!!

The results of the US election on November 4 are coming soon, let's briefly discuss the impact of two possible outcomes on the cryptocurrency market.

Outcome 1: Trump is elected.

1. The new Republican Party platform will become more important: ending the US government's crackdown on cryptocurrencies, defending the rights of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency mining, self-custody, and trading freedom.

2. Trump will appoint a new SEC chairman, with three candidates who are favorable to the crypto space: Dan Gallagher (Chief Legal Officer of Robinhood, which fully embraces the crypto space), Chris Giancarlo (former CFTC chairman, nicknamed the father of crypto), and Hester Peirce (one of the current five SEC commissioners, nicknamed the mother of crypto).

3. The DOGE division will be officially established, and cutting the budget department will surely generate news, bringing Dogecoin's exposure to another level.

4. Short-term benefits of Trump-themed coins will be fully realized.

Outcome 2: Harris is elected.

1. The steps towards regulatory openness for the crypto space will not be as significant. Gary Gensler may become Treasury Secretary, and among the new SEC chairman candidates, only Chris Brummer is crypto-friendly, but being a law professor may lead him to be similar to Gary after taking office.

2. Trump may go to jail, Musk may be targeted, and companies in the crypto space that support Trump may face scrutiny, especially those that align with the knowledgeable king out of fear of SEC action, such as Kraken and Gemini. The aforementioned related concept coins may face a deep pitfall.

3. Harris's climate policy will negatively impact high-energy-consuming POW mining.

4. Overall, it should present another bottom-fishing opportunity similar to '94. After all, the Democratic Party and Harris's major backer BlackRock still want to expand Bitcoin ETFs and tokenization.

Upon careful consideration, trading may not be so difficult; the challenging part is managing human emotions and positions, and also, many people cannot distinguish whether they are in a bull market or a bear market.

1. Keep leverage as low as possible, preferably below 5-10 times,
2. Maintain a lighter position, as there will be opportunities to add to the position later,
3. Go long in a bull market and short in a bear market; do not trade against the trend,
4. If you trade against the trend, always set a stop loss.

Most people won't tell you the characteristics of bull and bear markets

In a bear market, prices will suddenly rise and then slowly fall.

In a bull market, the opposite is true; prices will sharply decline and then gradually recover.

Before a bear market arrives, negative news floods the globe, often leading to price increases.

On the eve of a bull market, despite continuous negative news, there are occasional positive reports.

In a bear market, certain cryptocurrencies experience large price fluctuations, with both increases and decreases.

In a bull market, most cryptocurrencies see a continuous rise in price.

The hallmark of a bear market is that within one or two years, the value of most altcoins will evaporate by more than 90%. Currently, altcoins have already dropped by 90%, and they may continue to decline in the future. Only a few promising coins can survive the bear market and shine in the next bull market. During a bear market, the candlestick chart shows more bearish candles than bullish ones, indicating that prices are primarily volatile and declining. Retail investors find it hard to profit, and in most cases, they incur losses.

The characteristics of a bull market are that trading volume and market activity continue to increase. The candlestick chart shows more bullish candles than bearish ones, with prices rarely falling, allowing most retail investors to profit and seldom incur losses.

Pepe hasn't been watched for a long time, and basically, it has also dropped a lot, at least ten times the bottom from the high point, and the trading volume is still quite sluggish. However, the price has already reached a new low on the daily chart. The support area is in the range of 0.*30-0.*28. If this position holds, there is still a chance for a rebound from the oversold condition.

Additionally, some time ago, I predicted a bullish wedge, and the price indeed rebounded, with the rebound high point at the starting position of the wedge. This pullback has been quite standard. Moreover, these cryptocurrencies have generally dropped a lot now; either they are stuck heavily or have already been sold off. It is not recommended to short coins that have dropped significantly, as they may suddenly spike up.

Hype has been performing strongly recently, with prices rising along the upward channel. Currently, the price has reached the upper edge and is facing resistance, and the bullish momentum at the daily level is beginning to weaken. This is a very obvious topping pattern, so a short-term correction is expected. Pay attention to the small support at 36u below, with strong support around 32u at the lower edge.

Update on Btc analysis: The short-term price retested the support line again, which meets my expectations, as the support strength at 69,000 is still relatively strong. After the price dipped below 69,000, it bounced back, further demonstrating the support strength here. Therefore, I still see a rebound in the current position. If it is strong, it may touch around 73,000; if weak, it should at least go to 72,000 once. This rebound is expected to be at least around 3,000 points.

Currently, a small-scale pattern has formed a bullish wedge. Of course, this upward movement is just a rebound; after a pullback that entices more buyers, the probability of a continued decline is slightly higher. However, the first segment of the decline has temporarily stopped. If you want to take advantage of this rebound, you can wait for a small-scale double bottom, entering around the price of 69,500-69,000 for a long position, with a target range of 72,000-73,000. Afterwards, close the long position and switch to short. If it goes up directly, just wait to enter short when it rises, and the specifics will depend on how the pattern evolves to make further plans.

If BTC rebounds to the price level in the blue circle ⭕️ around 71,000 in the next few days, and then cannot continue to rise, it will be a short entry point to hit BTC hard.

If BTC can rebound to a slightly higher price level in the next few days, at the Fibonacci retracement 0.618 position around 74,500, and cannot continue to rise, then it is even more necessary to hit BTC hard for a short.

This wave of the weekly level's fourth wave rebound is nearing its end; I even think it has ended, and the downtrend of the fifth wave has already begun. In the following days, we will receive more confirmation and validation signals.

The crash of Bitcoin is more severe, but it has reached astonishing new highs each time.

1/ In 2011, it fell from about $32 to $2, a decline of approximately 93%.
2/ In 2013, it fell from about $1160 to $150, a decline of approximately 87%.
3/ From 2017 to 2018, it fell from about $20,000 to $3,200, a decline of approximately 84%.
4/ From 2021 to 2022, it fell from about $69,000 to $16,000, a decline of approximately 77%.
5/ This round is currently crashing.

But after each significant drop, it ultimately reaches a new historical high.

Staying in the market for the long term is more important than trying to time it perfectly.

Temporarily adjusting, the rebound just now was too aggressive. At that time, I was thinking of predicting a rebound and left a position for additional purchases, because there was a downward continuation pattern made in the 30-minute chart. I even mentioned in the group that at least it should drop a bit more, expected around 69,800, but I didn't expect that it would drop too much, directly reaching 69,400.

So this is also my small stop-loss position. If it hits that, I will decisively stop-loss. I never hold onto hope; when it hits the stop-loss position, I decisively stop-loss. This is also experience gained from losses. I might hold on a few times by luck, but if I can't hold on once, I'll lose everything. So if you make mistakes and get hit, you have to acknowledge it.

Regardless of the structural cycle or the data,
the market is already infinitely close to the bottom.

If there is another drop,
that drop is likely to be the last one.

What follows is not a direct reversal,
but rather —
a large-scale horizontal accumulation transitioning from 4H to daily over the course of months.

The view remains unchanged:
the market is at the end of a bear market.

For those still looking deep into space,
the risk is not in the market,
it is in perception.

Teaching everyone a trend theory worth millions of dollars. As long as you follow this method, you can eat well during a bull market and escape early during a bear market! It's much simpler than any Gann theory, Dow theory, or Elliott wave theory.

This theory is called "One Line Determines the Universe". In a bull market, as long as Bitcoin does not break below the MA377 daily moving average during a pullback, the bull market trend exists. In a bear market, as long as Bitcoin's rebound cannot break through the MA377 daily moving average, the bear market will not end.

For example, in the image, the green arrows indicate that every time there is a pullback, the trend continues. The black circles indicate that once it breaks, it enters a bear market.

As time goes by, the MA377 daily moving average will slowly move down. It is expected that by the end of 2026 to March 2027, the MA377 daily moving average will be approximately 53000 dollars, which means that if Bitcoin breaks above 53000 dollars again before March 2027, a new bull market will arrive.

ETH's short-term trend followed the simplest symmetrical triangle pattern and then started to break down and accelerate downward. However, compared to BTC, it is still slightly stronger. Normally, the low point for ETH is in the range of 2080-2050, but it is currently only around 2150u. The short-term upward trend has shifted to a downward trend, and it is highly likely that this will form a downward continuation pattern. After completing this, it will probably continue to decline.

The internal structure is expected to form a bearish wedge. If this pattern develops, the expected high point for the small-scale rebound is around 2257u, after which it will again start to accelerate downwards. Once it declines again, the target will be the support area of 2080-2050. Therefore, if today's forecast is correct, prepare for both long and short positions. Currently, I have already entered a long position, planning to take a rebound and then close the long position to go short. This is the current thought process, and I will continue to update in case of any changes.

Update on Btc analysis:

The waterfall may be late, but it won't be absent. The anticipated waterfall has finally arrived on schedule, and after ending an eight-day bullish streak, the first signs of a top appeared. Moreover, the bullish momentum has been continuously weakening, and at that time, the prediction was that it would be a bit stronger and might reach another local high to create a bullish trap; if it was weak, it would just drop directly.

In the afternoon, it was mentioned that the market might start to change around five or six o'clock, most likely downward. If the change occurs earlier, then the news impact won't be as significant. However, the change actually happened around seven or eight o'clock, so the prediction was off by an hour. As long as it drops beforehand, the impact of the early morning news won't be major because, at this critical point, neither interest rate cuts nor hikes are possible; maintaining the status quo is the best choice.

Ultimately, after breaking the top pattern, it began to accelerate downwards, with a drop of nearly four to five thousand dollars, having already broken the ascending channel. This indicates that the recent rise has temporarily come to an end, and a downtrend has begun. Currently, this wave of accelerated decline has reached my predicted first support level near 70,000. From this wave, the drop is quite rapid and aligns with the demand during this period. Next, attention needs to be paid to the current position; the first phase of the accelerated decline has been completed, so this current position is likely to form a downward continuation pattern.

If the smaller timeframe is a bit stronger, it might touch the 72,500-73,000 range. If it is weak, it may accelerate downwards again. If placing orders, it is advisable to set them around 72,500 to continue entering short positions. The current upward trend has now turned into a downtrend, and if it breaks below the 69,000-70,000 support area, the next target will be the 65,000 range.

Remember the mantra when trading is not going well
Recite it 10 times every morning
First: Small ups and downs will lead to big gains
Second: If there is a rapid surge, it's time to reduce positions
Third: If the rebound does not create a new high, it's time to exit
Fourth: If the pullback does not create a new low, it's time to enter

What characteristics will the Bitcoin rebound market have?

Based on the bear market wave structure of Bitcoin and the relationship between volume and price, the hunter has some guesses about the characteristics of this rebound market for reference and discussion.

First, the S&P A wave should not have finished dropping yet. When the S&P drops, Bitcoin usually follows suit, and there is a certain amount of trapped positions in the 75,000-79,000 range, so the subsequent rebound process of Bitcoin is likely to experience multiple pullbacks and fluctuations.

Secondly, the fourth sub-wave of wave A (2025.11.21-2026.1.14) lasted for more than 50 days, so the rebound of wave B is expected to take significantly longer than the fourth sub-wave of wave A, likely exceeding 70 days, and it is also possible to exceed 90 days.

Moreover, after the panic selling process on February 5 and the subsequent accumulation process after the second test, the main force has already accumulated a certain amount of chips. Therefore, the main force will also need a distribution process during the subsequent rebound, so it may consolidate for a relatively long time near the rebound high to complete the distribution.

Finally, to cooperate with the main force's distribution, the rebound market must have a certain level of deception. The subsequent rebound process, especially near the rebound high, may continuously present positive news, leading the retail investors to mistakenly believe that a bull market is returning, encouraging them to take positions.

At 3 AM tonight, the Federal Reserve will announce whether to cut interest rates. Currently, the conflict between the U.S. and Iran is intense, leading to rising inflation in the U.S., coupled with the disappointing non-farm payrolls in February and a rising unemployment rate. Therefore, this month the Federal Reserve is bound to maintain interest rates, even though Trump is calling for cuts every day; the senior officials of the Federal Reserve will not act as he wishes. What do you think?

Federal Reserve Decision Tonight: Don't Panic, Focus on These Two Points!

There’s no need to panic about this March meeting of the Federal Reserve; not raising or lowering interest rates has long been a certainty, and at 2 AM it's just a formality.

The two things that really determine the rise and fall are:

1. Interest Rate Cut Expectations Dot Plot
The market is waiting for one interest rate cut this year, and if it directly changes to zero cuts, assets like US stocks and BTC are likely to be hit hard.
2. Powell's Speech Attitude
Saying "high rates will last longer" = negative for the market;
Saying "we'll decide based on data" = leaves room and is somewhat positive.

The market has already prepared for a hawkish stance; as long as it’s not extremely hawkish, it’s basically a case of negative news being priced in, and it may actually rebound.

Before the results come out, don’t go all in or short indiscriminately; wait for the signals to be confirmed before taking action.

The fundamentals of ETH are similar to what I predicted. It followed the first simple structure, and the short-term secondary high point has rebounded to around 2360, but it was pulled back up again. A triangle has formed in the short term, but this shape is currently uncertain whether it is a converging triangle or a bullish pennant.

So we can wait for a small-level trend change to determine whether to short. The current price is already close to the end of the triangle, and it may change at any time. If this rebound is strong and accompanied by volume, then it indicates a bullish pennant pattern. If the price rebounds without volume, then it is a false breakout to lure in buyers.

Currently, the secondary high point still focuses on the 2350-2370 range. I estimate that the probability of forming a converging triangle is relatively high, and the big coin has basically peaked. The specific decision will depend on the strength of this rebound. For now, do not place orders to short; let's wait and see!