Nevermore_douge
DOGE Holder
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2025 is still considered lucky, hope 2026 can continue to be lucky!
With steady hands and a calm heart, follow my intuition.
#BTC行情 is expected to have a decent rebound starting next week, which will complete within 1-2 weeks, between 78k and 82k. After this, there will be a larger downward movement around mid-April, still needing to break below 60k. After that, there will be a significant upward trend, making this structure quite complete.
This is a personal opinion for entertainment purposes only.
#BTC行情 is expected to have a decent rebound starting next week, which will complete within 1-2 weeks, between 78k and 82k. After this, there will be a larger downward movement around mid-April, still needing to break below 60k. After that, there will be a significant upward trend, making this structure quite complete.
This is a personal opinion for entertainment purposes only.
BTCUSDT
Perp
10X
Opening Long
Unrealized PNL
-190.05USDT
Although the original pending order 65689 is a bit regrettable, changing the order feels like it’s not missing much space. Just went for it directly, let’s hold on and wait for the reversal market #BTC行情 $BTC
Implemented as planned. Although the probability of falling here is quite large, it's just the weekend with a 40% chance. Let's first build a small position and add back at 60! #特朗普希望尽快结束对伊朗战争
$DOGE I forgot how dear my dog was, so the stock must be added in. Any dog under 0.09 is an opportunity, the key is to hold on! We can win, #DOGE to the moon!
BTCUSDT
Perp
10X
Opening Long
Unrealized PNL
-190.05USDT
Implemented as planned. Although the probability of falling here is quite large, it's just the weekend with a 40% chance. Let's first build a small position and add back at 60! #特朗普希望尽快结束对伊朗战争
#比特币突破7.5万美元
$BTC The trading volume on the daily line is still average. Yesterday, the rebound of the US stock market struggled to reach the 78-82 line, which made it difficult. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve's meeting should discuss the recent impact of the Middle East situation on the economy and inflation. How significant will the impact be? They have the final say, and the uncertainty is increasing, so taking profits is very reasonable!
The actual trading of contracts still has a 100% win rate. Returning to Binance for trading last July was still good overall, with at least 10 trades each month maintaining a 100% win rate; luck is still decent.
Future market outlook: bearish in the short term, bullish in the long term. Refer to the chart below, and wait for the position to long; currently, do not short.
Personal opinion, for reference only! Trade for yourself, and if you like it, please follow and like; the requirements are not high!
$BTC The trading volume on the daily line is still average. Yesterday, the rebound of the US stock market struggled to reach the 78-82 line, which made it difficult. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve's meeting should discuss the recent impact of the Middle East situation on the economy and inflation. How significant will the impact be? They have the final say, and the uncertainty is increasing, so taking profits is very reasonable!
The actual trading of contracts still has a 100% win rate. Returning to Binance for trading last July was still good overall, with at least 10 trades each month maintaining a 100% win rate; luck is still decent.
Future market outlook: bearish in the short term, bullish in the long term. Refer to the chart below, and wait for the position to long; currently, do not short.
Personal opinion, for reference only! Trade for yourself, and if you like it, please follow and like; the requirements are not high!
A little test operation is still okay!
#特朗普希望尽快结束对伊朗战争 Recently, there are concerns about changes in trading logic, making it less daring to place orders. The market has shifted from expectations of interest rate cuts to expectations of interest rate hikes, although the Federal Reserve has not officially spoken yet. When the market goes against the Federal Reserve, more attention needs to be paid. Currently, in my view, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is very low. Even if inflation rebounds in 2026, it is different from the high inflation of 2021-2022. This time, the impact of oil is on the supply side, whereas before it was the impact of long-term monetary easing due to the pandemic on the demand side. Essentially, they are different. Inflation influenced by the supply side; if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again, the borrowing costs for businesses and consumer spending will suppress the economy. Therefore, I judge that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the short term, but the market will still speculate on the expectation of rate hikes. Let's wait a bit longer!
#特朗普希望尽快结束对伊朗战争 Recently, there are concerns about changes in trading logic, making it less daring to place orders. The market has shifted from expectations of interest rate cuts to expectations of interest rate hikes, although the Federal Reserve has not officially spoken yet. When the market goes against the Federal Reserve, more attention needs to be paid. Currently, in my view, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is very low. Even if inflation rebounds in 2026, it is different from the high inflation of 2021-2022. This time, the impact of oil is on the supply side, whereas before it was the impact of long-term monetary easing due to the pandemic on the demand side. Essentially, they are different. Inflation influenced by the supply side; if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again, the borrowing costs for businesses and consumer spending will suppress the economy. Therefore, I judge that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the short term, but the market will still speculate on the expectation of rate hikes. Let's wait a bit longer!
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BTCUSDT
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+35.10%
Teacher Gong is absolutely right, but my observation recently is that BTC has been slightly stronger than US stocks. It can't be said to be the effect of safe-haven attributes; rather, it may be a manifestation of funds from the Middle East flooding into BTC in the short term. At present, it is certainly more appropriate to treat BTC as a risk asset. #特朗普缓和局势
龚有柴GongYouchai
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Stop treating Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. As the US-Iran situation tightens, BTC short-term resembles a magnifier for US stocks.
If you’re still using the logic of “geopolitical conflicts escalating, positive for Bitcoin as a safe haven” to trade in the past few days, to be honest, that perspective is a bit outdated. At least from the current real market reaction, this explanation does not hold. Now, whenever news like “the US and Iran may continue fighting” or “Iran does not accept peace talks” emerges, the market's first reaction is not to buy Bitcoin as a safe haven but to dump risk assets first, and BTC tends to drop along with US stocks.
The reason behind this is not complicated. Although Bitcoin has been labeled as “digital gold” over the years, in actual short-term trading, it resembles a high-volatility risk asset that can be traded 24/7. Especially during escalated geopolitical conflicts, rising oil prices, and market concerns about inflation and tightening liquidity, funds do not rush into BTC first; instead, they shrink risk exposure. When US stocks fall first, BTC is likely to face pressure simultaneously, even dropping more sharply.
So, if I must provide a clear judgment on this wave, my view is straightforward: As long as the US-Iran situation continues to escalate, BTC short-term is bearish, not bullish. Moreover, if US stocks continue to release risk, ETH usually performs weaker than BTC, and altcoins will fare even worse than ETH. In other words, the real market structure is not “war has come, the crypto market is taking off,” but rather “the tighter the war, the more difficult risk assets become, and BTC is just the one that follows the drop and amplifies volatility.”
Many people easily make wrong judgments because they mix long-term narratives with short-term trading. In the long term, you can certainly discuss whether Bitcoin has a chance to gradually achieve a “gold-like” position. But at least in the current stage, the market is not trading it that way. The label the market gives BTC remains that of a high beta, high elasticity, high emotional sensitivity asset. Since the label hasn’t changed, when encountering war news, the trading results naturally won’t behave like gold.
So if you ask me what to do now, my advice is: stop using “safe haven” as a reason to buy, and look at BTC through the lens of risk assets in the short term. For those with positions, the focus should not be on fantasizing about a sudden surge but rather on defending against pullbacks; for those without positions, don’t rush in just because of one or two rebounds. The real signal that warrants flipping bullish is not conflict escalation, but rather easing of the situation, stabilization of US stocks, and a restoration of market risk appetite. At that time, discussing BTC’s rebound and repair will be much more reliable.
In summary: In the current market, Bitcoin is not gold, but a magnifier of US stock risk sentiment. The tighter the US-Iran situation, the harder it is for BTC to stand alone.
If you’re still using the logic of “geopolitical conflicts escalating, positive for Bitcoin as a safe haven” to trade in the past few days, to be honest, that perspective is a bit outdated. At least from the current real market reaction, this explanation does not hold. Now, whenever news like “the US and Iran may continue fighting” or “Iran does not accept peace talks” emerges, the market's first reaction is not to buy Bitcoin as a safe haven but to dump risk assets first, and BTC tends to drop along with US stocks.
The reason behind this is not complicated. Although Bitcoin has been labeled as “digital gold” over the years, in actual short-term trading, it resembles a high-volatility risk asset that can be traded 24/7. Especially during escalated geopolitical conflicts, rising oil prices, and market concerns about inflation and tightening liquidity, funds do not rush into BTC first; instead, they shrink risk exposure. When US stocks fall first, BTC is likely to face pressure simultaneously, even dropping more sharply.
So, if I must provide a clear judgment on this wave, my view is straightforward: As long as the US-Iran situation continues to escalate, BTC short-term is bearish, not bullish. Moreover, if US stocks continue to release risk, ETH usually performs weaker than BTC, and altcoins will fare even worse than ETH. In other words, the real market structure is not “war has come, the crypto market is taking off,” but rather “the tighter the war, the more difficult risk assets become, and BTC is just the one that follows the drop and amplifies volatility.”
Many people easily make wrong judgments because they mix long-term narratives with short-term trading. In the long term, you can certainly discuss whether Bitcoin has a chance to gradually achieve a “gold-like” position. But at least in the current stage, the market is not trading it that way. The label the market gives BTC remains that of a high beta, high elasticity, high emotional sensitivity asset. Since the label hasn’t changed, when encountering war news, the trading results naturally won’t behave like gold.
So if you ask me what to do now, my advice is: stop using “safe haven” as a reason to buy, and look at BTC through the lens of risk assets in the short term. For those with positions, the focus should not be on fantasizing about a sudden surge but rather on defending against pullbacks; for those without positions, don’t rush in just because of one or two rebounds. The real signal that warrants flipping bullish is not conflict escalation, but rather easing of the situation, stabilization of US stocks, and a restoration of market risk appetite. At that time, discussing BTC’s rebound and repair will be much more reliable.
In summary: In the current market, Bitcoin is not gold, but a magnifier of US stock risk sentiment. The tighter the US-Iran situation, the harder it is for BTC to stand alone.
It's been a long time since I placed an order, let's open a small position to have some fun #特朗普称对伊战争已胜利 Come on, Chuanzi!
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BTCUSDT
Perp
Closed
PNL
+35.10%
#特朗普缓和局势 The market response to taco will definitely become lower and lower. Don’t be too optimistic about the market trend, and don’t be too pessimistic either. Right now, the big coin is still in a volatile range, so if there are no good opportunities, just wait patiently.
律动BlockBeats
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Trump lied 12 times in a year, and Wall Street's TACO finally stopped buying it.
On April 9, 2025, the S&P 500 surged 9.52% in a single day, marking the largest increase since 2008. The reason was not the introduction of any favorable policy but rather Trump's announcement that reciprocal tariffs would take effect that morning, followed by a sudden announcement at noon to suspend them for 90 days.
This was not a coincidence. From that day on, Wall Street coined a term for this pattern, calling it TACO, Trump Always Chickens Out. Over the past 14 months, this pattern has repeated at least 12 times. Each threat, each retreat, each market rebound. But the events in Iran on March 23 show that this once highly profitable trading strategy is failing.
This was not a coincidence. From that day on, Wall Street coined a term for this pattern, calling it TACO, Trump Always Chickens Out. Over the past 14 months, this pattern has repeated at least 12 times. Each threat, each retreat, each market rebound. But the events in Iran on March 23 show that this once highly profitable trading strategy is failing.
#黄金创43年来最大单周跌幅
In recent months, there have been many things, the update frequency will decrease, and the market is rather boring with not much to say.
Gold fell sharply last week, U.S. stocks also dropped significantly, the Federal Reserve's meeting was relatively neutral and conservative, and the Fed itself stated that it should skip this meeting due to the uncertainty of the economic data influenced by the situation in the Middle East, making it difficult to judge. Coupled with the subsequent Iranian oil field explosion, the market is worried about a rebound in inflation, and the bond market has undergone a historic shift from rate cuts to rate hikes, leading to a complete collapse in the Asian and U.S. markets on Friday. When real financial risks arrive, gold will also be squeezed, which is easy to understand. When panic sets in, gold will also be sold to fill gaps in other financial markets, hence the sharp decline in gold.
$BTC This time it performed very strongly, better than U.S. stocks and gold. The reason may be that there are buyers behind it, with safe-haven funds from the Middle East supporting it, and a significant decline has not occurred. Therefore, this position is somewhat awkward; one is whether this strength can be sustained? It's hard to say, and situations of corrective declines are not uncommon; the other is whether other financial markets will stabilize next week, with BTC rebounding first? It has happened before, the most typical being the SVB incident. Therefore, I will not operate at this position; it’s a fifty-fifty situation. If there’s a corrective decline next week, I will go long, but I won't chase if it goes up. If I have spot assets, it's not a big problem.
$DOGE to the moon!
In recent months, there have been many things, the update frequency will decrease, and the market is rather boring with not much to say.
Gold fell sharply last week, U.S. stocks also dropped significantly, the Federal Reserve's meeting was relatively neutral and conservative, and the Fed itself stated that it should skip this meeting due to the uncertainty of the economic data influenced by the situation in the Middle East, making it difficult to judge. Coupled with the subsequent Iranian oil field explosion, the market is worried about a rebound in inflation, and the bond market has undergone a historic shift from rate cuts to rate hikes, leading to a complete collapse in the Asian and U.S. markets on Friday. When real financial risks arrive, gold will also be squeezed, which is easy to understand. When panic sets in, gold will also be sold to fill gaps in other financial markets, hence the sharp decline in gold.
$BTC This time it performed very strongly, better than U.S. stocks and gold. The reason may be that there are buyers behind it, with safe-haven funds from the Middle East supporting it, and a significant decline has not occurred. Therefore, this position is somewhat awkward; one is whether this strength can be sustained? It's hard to say, and situations of corrective declines are not uncommon; the other is whether other financial markets will stabilize next week, with BTC rebounding first? It has happened before, the most typical being the SVB incident. Therefore, I will not operate at this position; it’s a fifty-fifty situation. If there’s a corrective decline next week, I will go long, but I won't chase if it goes up. If I have spot assets, it's not a big problem.
$DOGE to the moon!
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BTCUSD CM
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+81.13%
#广场挖矿 such accurate market predictions and macro analysis, Anzi actually gave me a reward of 0.001u, thank you so much, Lao Zhao!
anyway, this wave of market predictions is still acceptable, but I have 90% spot positions, and they are basically almost back to the purchase price, and it is a bit painful. Trash Bitcoin and trash altcoins, so hurry up and drop so I can replenish my positions!
anyway, this wave of market predictions is still acceptable, but I have 90% spot positions, and they are basically almost back to the purchase price, and it is a bit painful. Trash Bitcoin and trash altcoins, so hurry up and drop so I can replenish my positions!
#美联储3月议息会议 #美国2月PPI超预期 Staying up late is really exhausting. In the morning, I looked back at yesterday's meeting situation and summarized the contents we need to focus on: 1. If the accusations against Powell do not end, he will not voluntarily leave the committee. This is very strong, and we need this attitude. 2. The current interest rates are at a neutral level and only slightly tight. They will not consider raising rates now, as there is no data to support any guidance or hints. 3. The uncertainty of the Middle East issue, while it is a one-time event, whether it can be ignored depends on the situation (which is equivalent to saying nothing). This meeting is similar to what we expected; the uncertainty is still very high, and even the Federal Reserve cannot make judgments. The dot plot is just randomly marked and is not much different from December; we will discuss it again next time, which implies something.
Overall, nothing particularly special. The PPI exceeded expectations, which also weakened the rate cut expectations. I believe the meeting was neutral and cannot be considered too hawkish. As for why US stocks started to decline during the speech, I believe it is still the uncertainty affecting market sentiment, which has little to do with the speech. The probability of BTC reversing and surging here is very low; my view remains unchanged, and it is not yet time to go long. Thursday and Friday tend to decline. The time to accelerate the release of liquidity is when we pick up chips and rush in to go long, so be patient!
Overall, nothing particularly special. The PPI exceeded expectations, which also weakened the rate cut expectations. I believe the meeting was neutral and cannot be considered too hawkish. As for why US stocks started to decline during the speech, I believe it is still the uncertainty affecting market sentiment, which has little to do with the speech. The probability of BTC reversing and surging here is very low; my view remains unchanged, and it is not yet time to go long. Thursday and Friday tend to decline. The time to accelerate the release of liquidity is when we pick up chips and rush in to go long, so be patient!
#美联储3月议息会议 The judgment at that time still seems quite accurate, whether it's buying in the Middle East or the market's risk aversion sentiment, which has driven this wave of market rebound. Currently, there is no clear signal from the Federal Reserve meeting or the situation in the Middle East, and the uncertainty is still significant. Moreover, the structure of Bitcoin at this point has broken out of the range but without significant volume or a substantial rise. I am relatively optimistic about a correction, so this week I will try to observe more and act less.
#亚洲股市暴跌 #国际油价突破100美元
$BTC $ETH The Asian market has plummeted, and the US stock market opened lower before the market. Some may wonder why Bitcoin hasn't fallen; it had already anticipated a drop over the weekend. In 2023, during the SVB incident, the US stock market dropped sharply, but Bitcoin stabilized and then reversed. At this moment, Bitcoin is showing its safe-haven properties. Currently, oil prices are fluctuating wildly, and financial instability is becoming apparent, yet Bitcoin is performing strongly, resembling the situation back then, where its safe-haven attribute is in play. Steady and ready for takeoff!
$BTC $ETH The Asian market has plummeted, and the US stock market opened lower before the market. Some may wonder why Bitcoin hasn't fallen; it had already anticipated a drop over the weekend. In 2023, during the SVB incident, the US stock market dropped sharply, but Bitcoin stabilized and then reversed. At this moment, Bitcoin is showing its safe-haven properties. Currently, oil prices are fluctuating wildly, and financial instability is becoming apparent, yet Bitcoin is performing strongly, resembling the situation back then, where its safe-haven attribute is in play. Steady and ready for takeoff!
$DOGE Dear Dog, you are still the most unreliable, you are the first in falling, luckily the contract has already taken profit, but the spot is also quite painful!
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DOGEUSD CM
Perp
Closed
PNL
+0.00%
#比特币突破7.5万美元
$BTC The trading volume on the daily line is still average. Yesterday, the rebound of the US stock market struggled to reach the 78-82 line, which made it difficult. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve's meeting should discuss the recent impact of the Middle East situation on the economy and inflation. How significant will the impact be? They have the final say, and the uncertainty is increasing, so taking profits is very reasonable!
The actual trading of contracts still has a 100% win rate. Returning to Binance for trading last July was still good overall, with at least 10 trades each month maintaining a 100% win rate; luck is still decent.
Future market outlook: bearish in the short term, bullish in the long term. Refer to the chart below, and wait for the position to long; currently, do not short.
Personal opinion, for reference only! Trade for yourself, and if you like it, please follow and like; the requirements are not high!
$BTC The trading volume on the daily line is still average. Yesterday, the rebound of the US stock market struggled to reach the 78-82 line, which made it difficult. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve's meeting should discuss the recent impact of the Middle East situation on the economy and inflation. How significant will the impact be? They have the final say, and the uncertainty is increasing, so taking profits is very reasonable!
The actual trading of contracts still has a 100% win rate. Returning to Binance for trading last July was still good overall, with at least 10 trades each month maintaining a 100% win rate; luck is still decent.
Future market outlook: bearish in the short term, bullish in the long term. Refer to the chart below, and wait for the position to long; currently, do not short.
Personal opinion, for reference only! Trade for yourself, and if you like it, please follow and like; the requirements are not high!
#美联储利率决议即将公布 The contract has been closed first, securing the funds. On Thursday, there will be a Federal Reserve meeting. I wonder if any new viewpoints or signals will emerge, so let's wait and see!
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BTCUSDT
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+125.78%
#doge $DOGE Although not very competitive. But still, as always, I support you!
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DOGEUSD CM
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#反弹还是反转 The economic data for the past two weeks has been released, including non-farm payrolls, CPI, and PCE, which have had little impact on the market as expected. Currently, the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates this year, which is much more pessimistic than the two hikes expected at the beginning of the year. The main concern is the situation in Iran affecting oil prices, and fears of a CPI rebound have lowered expectations. I feel this is somewhat pessimistic because local disputes do indeed affect CPI, but the Federal Reserve will explain and disregard these one-time data discrepancies, as they won't consider all of them in the long term.
So, the view remains the same: we are still in a rate-cutting cycle, judging the overall direction of the bull market weekly corrections. Currently, we are witnessing a rebound after a box range consolidation, breaking above the 236 level to the previous support zone of 78-82, capturing liquidity above. A strong move could reach 85, but the probability is relatively low; after reaching that level, a decline is expected, returning to the box range. The optimistic view is a rebound to the 382 level, while the pessimistic view is a breakdown below 60. This structure is very complete, and liquidity on both sides can be captured, making it easier for the main force to pull the market. Currently, I am still more optimistic about breaking below 60, possibly reaching around 50-52, but I will start positioning long orders once it breaks 66.
Personal speculation, for reference only.
So, the view remains the same: we are still in a rate-cutting cycle, judging the overall direction of the bull market weekly corrections. Currently, we are witnessing a rebound after a box range consolidation, breaking above the 236 level to the previous support zone of 78-82, capturing liquidity above. A strong move could reach 85, but the probability is relatively low; after reaching that level, a decline is expected, returning to the box range. The optimistic view is a rebound to the 382 level, while the pessimistic view is a breakdown below 60. This structure is very complete, and liquidity on both sides can be captured, making it easier for the main force to pull the market. Currently, I am still more optimistic about breaking below 60, possibly reaching around 50-52, but I will start positioning long orders once it breaks 66.
Personal speculation, for reference only.
#美国PCE数据将公布 The Federal Reserve is watching the PCE data, which is a calculated value, so the expected and actual figures will differ very little, having minimal impact on the market!
$BTC Bullish means going long; even short-term pullbacks should not affect this. The target is still around the 78-82 range. When it reaches the take profit, even if you turn bearish, do not open short positions, wait for a pullback to go long again!
$BTC Bullish means going long; even short-term pullbacks should not affect this. The target is still around the 78-82 range. When it reaches the take profit, even if you turn bearish, do not open short positions, wait for a pullback to go long again!
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BTCUSDT
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+125.78%
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