#美联储3月议息会议 #美国2月PPI超预期 Staying up late is really exhausting. In the morning, I looked back at yesterday's meeting situation and summarized the contents we need to focus on: 1. If the accusations against Powell do not end, he will not voluntarily leave the committee. This is very strong, and we need this attitude. 2. The current interest rates are at a neutral level and only slightly tight. They will not consider raising rates now, as there is no data to support any guidance or hints. 3. The uncertainty of the Middle East issue, while it is a one-time event, whether it can be ignored depends on the situation (which is equivalent to saying nothing). This meeting is similar to what we expected; the uncertainty is still very high, and even the Federal Reserve cannot make judgments. The dot plot is just randomly marked and is not much different from December; we will discuss it again next time, which implies something.

Overall, nothing particularly special. The PPI exceeded expectations, which also weakened the rate cut expectations. I believe the meeting was neutral and cannot be considered too hawkish. As for why US stocks started to decline during the speech, I believe it is still the uncertainty affecting market sentiment, which has little to do with the speech. The probability of BTC reversing and surging here is very low; my view remains unchanged, and it is not yet time to go long. Thursday and Friday tend to decline. The time to accelerate the release of liquidity is when we pick up chips and rush in to go long, so be patient!