A little test operation is still okay!

#特朗普希望尽快结束对伊朗战争 Recently, there are concerns about changes in trading logic, making it less daring to place orders. The market has shifted from expectations of interest rate cuts to expectations of interest rate hikes, although the Federal Reserve has not officially spoken yet. When the market goes against the Federal Reserve, more attention needs to be paid. Currently, in my view, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is very low. Even if inflation rebounds in 2026, it is different from the high inflation of 2021-2022. This time, the impact of oil is on the supply side, whereas before it was the impact of long-term monetary easing due to the pandemic on the demand side. Essentially, they are different. Inflation influenced by the supply side; if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again, the borrowing costs for businesses and consumer spending will suppress the economy. Therefore, I judge that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the short term, but the market will still speculate on the expectation of rate hikes. Let's wait a bit longer!