马功成520

中东局势不断升级，全球市场跟着剧烈波动，油价、股市反复震荡。大家会发现一个很明显的现象：国际市场对这场冲突的判断，一次又一次出现偏差，不断被动重新定价。
这不是偶然，而是一整套系统性误判。今天我们就来分析，市场到底为什么会误判，又错在了哪里。
全球市场严重低估了战争升级的风险，只能随着局势变化被动调整预期，情绪剧烈波动、踩踏式抛售也都由此引发。至于背后的核心原因，主要有以下十点:
1.一厢情愿的预期：把自己希望看到的东西变成了现实。市场更乐意捕捉并放大战争会更早结束的消息，一些安抚市场的新闻加强这一预期，反而加大误判。
2.对战争宣传照单全收。市场接受了特朗普政府大量的战争宣传——包括美军的胜利、各种军事目标的达成、伊朗的溃败、对战争前景的乐观预期，并将这些宣传不成比例地纳入到自己的定价中。
3.误判战争的主导权在美国。市场误认为特朗普或者美国政府对战争拥有指挥权和主导权，或者高估了特朗普政府的主导力量。实际上，特朗普只是在尝试设定边界，例如要求以色列不直接进攻油气设施，但以色列在主导战争的开展，包括打击范围、打击目标及重要的升级行为。攻击伊朗核设施是典型的升级行为。美国只是起到配合作用。市场对以色列政府明确给出的战争升级信号关注不够，定价不足。
4.高估特朗普TAGO的能力。市场误认为特朗普政府可以单方面退缩，并对“TAGO”概念定价过高。这是源于上一次贸易战，市场在资本市场，主要是债市崩盘后决定放弃更加激进的关税。市场因此认为，只要油价上涨，市场大跌，特朗普就会退缩并改变战争走势。实际上，目前的情况是，特朗普即便退缩，也不能单方面改变战争的走势，因为伊朗控制着霍尔木兹海峡，正在决定战争结束的条件。
5.西方常年妖魔化、矮化伊朗导致的信息茧房。西方媒体常年主导对伊朗的叙事，将伊朗描绘为国内充斥反对力量和分裂力量、政府和民众矛盾巨大、经济即将崩溃、政权即将垮台，军事也不堪一击，美国可以轻易取胜。正是这些信息的充斥使得特朗普过度自满，发动了这次战争。全球资本市场处在同样的信息茧房里，也常年接受上述信息，因此对伊朗的能力和韧性判断严重不足。导致误判。
6.沦为以色列“认知战”的接受者。市场受到了亲以色列、亲锡安主义“认知战”的影响，把“认知战”提供的信息直接当成了事实，甚至加以放大，结果导致误判。要知道，西方媒体特别是美国媒体，是受亲以色列力量严重影响和干扰的。你以为你看到的东西是事实分析，实际上它是认知战的一部分。
7.对伊朗声音的系统性忽略或低估。具体有几个原因。1）伊朗政府过去受到打击时，每每号称强力反击，但往往出于克制的考虑而没有兑现。这就导致一种“狼来了”的效果，使得市场没有认真对待伊朗的反制意愿和能力；2）西方政府和媒体对伊朗长期妖魔化，使得人们对伊朗政府的能力与信用打了很大的折扣，不愿置信；3）以色列大量刺杀伊朗政府高级官员，很多原本在社交媒体上发声的官员被击杀，导致外界所能看到的声音更少，进一步加大了信息不对称性；4）伊朗是常年被制裁的国家，外界了解极少，存在系统性误判也就不足为奇了。
8.以色列战况的信息黑洞。以色列严格封锁一切军事信息，使得人们基本看不到以色列被打击的情况。这个情况类似于俄乌战争，人们能看到俄军损失，但看不到乌军损失。这个情况在以色列方面只会更加严重，因为以色列的信息封闭政策更加系统，同时对西方媒体的影响力远高于乌克兰。
9.低估以色列的非理性升级意愿（低估了它的疯狂程度）。在伊朗强大的导弹和无人机面前，以色列并没有对抗能力。他开启了一场自己无法打赢的战争。但这个每天晚上数百万民众躲在防空洞的国家，还在想方设法升级和扩大战争，在外人看来甚至可能招致这个国家被毁灭。以色列的非理性程度为外界所无法理解，因为人们始终认为敢于升级的一方应该是处在优势的一方。
10.误读伊朗“非对称战争”的本质。评价“非对称战争”，不能看一方对另一方造成的绝对损失，而要看哪一方无法坚持下去。对伊朗来说，这场战争关乎民族和国家的生死存亡；对美国公众来说，这场战争是“以色列的战争”、“莫名其妙的战争”，能否坚持，要看公众到底愿意承担多大代价，到底愿意承担多长时间。伊朗的目标就是长期坚持下去，打一场美国难以承担的消耗战。如果市场能够理解这个剧本，首先应该明白，战场的天平对伊朗有利，不对美国和以色列有利。你看到的是一个长剧，不是一分钟的短剧.....

Today focuses on global focal issues: Can the negotiations between the United States and Iran really succeed? Currently, all parties expect the US, Israel, and Iran to move towards peace talks and ceasefire, but the more it is such a time, the more we must set aside wishful expectations and, using facts, the conditions of both parties, and the underlying logic of multi-party games, see the real possibilities of this negotiation.
First, it is necessary to clarify a key fact: There is currently no real negotiation between the US and Iran. Trump claims that 'high-level talks' are taking place, but all official and related channels in Iran have clearly denied this. Trump's statement is essentially meant to soothe the market, buy time, and has cognitive warfare objectives; he often distorts simple information exchanges as 'negotiations,' which lacks credibility.

The misjudgments at the political and military levels have put the United States in a passive position, and the economic misjudgments have crushed the last straw for Trump! Trump's misjudgments on key issues such as the blockade of the strait and inflation not only dragged down the U.S. economy but also triggered global economic turmoil.
Misjudgment 1: No economic plan was in place, and the hasty response afterward was extremely unprofessional.
The Trump administration not only failed to foresee that Iran might block the strait but also did not anticipate the impact of the blockade on the global economy. It cut off one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supply, undermining the global shipping hub function of the Middle East, leading to damage in the global supply chain. What shocked and angered all parties was that the Trump administration had no targeted economic plan or emergency mechanism before the war.

Political misjudgments have put the United States in a passive position, and military misjudgments have made the situation even worse. Trump overestimated his own military-industrial strength and underestimated Iran's military capabilities, gradually dragging the U.S. military into a quagmire of attrition. Specifically, let's look at these six deadly mistakes!
The military misjudgments of the Trump administration stem from a serious underestimation of Iran's military capabilities, excessive confidence in its own military-industrial system, and a lag in understanding the nature of warfare. This caused the United States to fall into a strategically passive position as soon as the war began, paying a price far beyond expectations, and showing the world the limits of American capabilities, forcing countries to adjust their defense strategies.

Two weeks into the Iran war, the situation is completely out of control! Trump gambles on American hegemony by attacking Iran, yet makes one misstep after another, each decision dragging the U.S. into a quagmire. Today, we will first dissect his fatal political misjudgments! The U.S. has been at war with Iran for two weeks now. Current information fully shows that the Trump administration has made significant misjudgments on every key issue regarding the Iran war. Next, we will first analyze the political misjudgments.
Misjudgment 1: A serious underestimation of the foundations and public opinion of the Iranian regime.
Trump believes that the Iranian leadership is highly divided, and there is a large amount of opposition within the country. A slight external strike will lead the Iranian people and the opposition to respond, 'rise up' and overthrow the current Iranian regime. This is not only completely wrong but also ignores the warnings from U.S. intelligence agencies: launching large-scale military operations will almost certainly not facilitate a change in the Iranian regime.

There is a type of company that can actually increase in value when the world situation worsens: defense contractors, oil unions, and gold miners. These are all common examples, and their business models are fundamentally based on instability, converting this risk into pricing.
Circle does not belong to this category. Its token design is originally intended to always be equivalent to 1 dollar. Stability is the entire meaning of its product.
However, Circle's stock price has surged from $49.90 on February 5 to about $123 today, more than doubling in just five weeks. Meanwhile, the broader cryptocurrency market is still 44% lower than its peak level in October of last year.