Two weeks into the Iran war, the situation is completely out of control! Trump gambles on American hegemony by attacking Iran, yet makes one misstep after another, each decision dragging the U.S. into a quagmire. Today, we will first dissect his fatal political misjudgments! The U.S. has been at war with Iran for two weeks now. Current information fully shows that the Trump administration has made significant misjudgments on every key issue regarding the Iran war. Next, we will first analyze the political misjudgments.
Misjudgment 1: A serious underestimation of the foundations and public opinion of the Iranian regime.
Trump believes that the Iranian leadership is highly divided, and there is a large amount of opposition within the country. A slight external strike will lead the Iranian people and the opposition to respond, 'rise up' and overthrow the current Iranian regime. This is not only completely wrong but also ignores the warnings from U.S. intelligence agencies: launching large-scale military operations will almost certainly not facilitate a change in the Iranian regime.
Misjudgment 2: Believing that assassinating leaders could lead to regime change or policy shifts.
Trump himself believes that assassinating the Supreme Leader Khamenei could overthrow the Iranian regime or force pro-American moderate leaders to ascend, reshaping Iran's policies. This completely overlooks Iran's internal cohesion, institutional resilience, and governance foundation. As a result, Iran quickly completed the transfer of power by electing Mojtaba Khamenei, further strengthening the dominance of hardliners, leading to a complete failure of Trump's military and strategic objectives.
Misjudgment 3: Completely ignoring the symbolic significance of religious leaders.
Trump completely misjudged the status and influence of Khamenei as the Supreme Leader of Iran and a Shiite leader, thinking he was just a secular leader like Maduro, and that assassinating him could destroy Iran's leadership core and will to resist. This is an extreme misjudgment. The assassination instead triggered intense anger from Iran and transnational Shiite groups, leading to an endless escalation of war, a complete disappearance of negotiation space, and pushing the conflict into the broader Islamic world, planting the seeds for terrorist attacks against the United States. In summary, the assassination of Khamenei was the biggest miscalculation, fundamentally changing the nature and scale of the conflict.
Misjudgment 4: Failing to see Iran's national cohesion as a civilizational state.
Trump equates Iran with Venezuela, failing to see that it is a civilization with nearly 100 million people, existing for nearly three thousand years, and possessing strong internal cohesion—Persia. Its profound history, culture, and national identity will generate significant unity in the face of aggression. This national cohesion not only did not weaken the regime but greatly increased public support and the regime's legitimacy, causing internal opposition movements to almost disappear, while pro-American and pro-Western young liberals were instantly extinguished, transforming into a national will to resist.
Misjudgment 5: Completely underestimating Iran's determination to retaliate.
From then on, Trump also completely misjudged Iran's determination, capabilities, and options for military retaliation, especially not anticipating that Iran would fight to the death and adopt a strategy of full escalation, targeting not only U.S. military bases in the Gulf region but also the infrastructure of Gulf countries, and blocking the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic response directly caused a global energy crisis, paralyzing the Middle Eastern hub and triggering broader geopolitical and economic chain reactions.
Misjudgment 6: Assuming that he could maintain dominance after starting a war.
Trump believed that Iran could be forced back to the negotiating table at any time and that he could unilaterally initiate the end of the war, including declaring victory or withdrawing unilaterally. But he did not anticipate that through asymmetric strategies, the initiative had already shifted to Iran. Trump cannot unilaterally control the pace of a ceasefire, and since Iran is fighting to the death, it will demand to end the conflict on its own terms, thereby reestablishing the order in the Middle East.
Misjudgment 7: Underestimating Israel's ambitions while overestimating control over Israel.
From the perspective of the war, Israel is still unilaterally expanding its attack range, attempting to draw more countries and groups into the conflict, using any means necessary, making it difficult for the U.S. to restrain them. Israel may even use tactical nuclear weapons against Iran, infinitely escalating the war. All these actions will lead to a stronger Iranian retaliation, forcing the U.S. to keep following up. As long as the conflict does not end, the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be paralyzed, putting the Trump administration in a completely passive position. In short, Trump was never in a position to decide whether to participate in the war; he had to look at Israel's face, and therefore he could not decide how to end the war.
Misjudgment 8: Seriously underestimating the opposition forces within the U.S. and inside the MAGA camp.
The vast majority of the American public opposes the war, with young MAGA supporters and centrists—who are crucial to the Republican voter base—being overwhelmingly anti-war. Almost all non-Jewish MAGA opinion leaders, as well as many centrist opinion leaders, have united to oppose the war. It is widely believed in Washington that Trump has significant disagreements with his political heir JD Vance, prompting Trump to consider Rubio as his successor. This series of backlashes has effectively disbanded the MAGA camp, severely weakening Trump's core base, which will completely alter the election landscape for the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election.
Misjudgment 9: Failing to see that his 'one retreat' would permanently change the Middle Eastern landscape.
Trump is driven by short-term behavior; he did not anticipate that any retreat would permanently alter the Middle East landscape. If he retreats once more, he will prove to the world that Iran's asymmetric strategy has succeeded. Iran will continue to use this tactic to form a long-term deterrent against the United States, causing the U.S. to lose strategic initiative over Iran and the Middle East. Gulf countries, allies, and other potential adversaries will see this clearly, accelerating changes in the Middle Eastern order.....