Bookbinder
I bind and edit. Sometimes I write, the rest of the time I concentrate on reading. You help me level up.
Open Trade
BTC Holder
Occasional Trader
5 Years
38 Following
21.8K+ Followers
3.6K+ Liked
810 Shared
Posts
Portfolio
All
Quotes
Videos
PINNED
CONFESSIONS OF A NOVICE TRADER XIV: HOW I WENT FROM BLIND FAITH TO MATHEMATICAL HOPE
IF YOU STILL WONDER Will today be my lucky day? And you go and open a GRAPH with a NEGATIVE EXPECTATION* but with an UNBREAKABLE FAITH, getting the same results over and over again: LOSSES. Let me tell you that you are not alone.
The reality is that many traders make the same mistake: believing that trading is a matter of chance or instinct. But, is it really like that? Is it possible to face the market without a structured plan and come out victorious? Spoiler: it is not.
The reality is that many traders make the same mistake: believing that trading is a matter of chance or instinct. But, is it really like that? Is it possible to face the market without a structured plan and come out victorious? Spoiler: it is not.
PINNED
CONFESSIONS OF A NOVICE TRADER XIII: FROM LOSING IT ALL TO UNDERSTANDING THE GAME
Trading, system, Bitcoin
Have you ever sat in front of a chart, with a mix of excitement and anxiety, thinking you were about to change your life forever? I have.
And I want to tell you how that fantasy of easy money brought me to the brink of madness, and how, after many setbacks, I learned something valuable that might help you on your own path.
The Deception of Easy Money
Let's not fool ourselves: what drew us to trading, like bees to a hive, was the promise of easy money. I also fell into that trap. I confused how simple it was to place an order with how easy it would be to make money.
Have you ever sat in front of a chart, with a mix of excitement and anxiety, thinking you were about to change your life forever? I have.
And I want to tell you how that fantasy of easy money brought me to the brink of madness, and how, after many setbacks, I learned something valuable that might help you on your own path.
The Deception of Easy Money
Let's not fool ourselves: what drew us to trading, like bees to a hive, was the promise of easy money. I also fell into that trap. I confused how simple it was to place an order with how easy it would be to make money.
CONFESSIONS OF A NOVICE TRADER: HOW I WENT FROM SEEKING STRATEGIES IN TRASH CANS TO TESTED STRATEGIES
#memecoin
What you will definitely find:
Discover how a powerful short-term reversal signal in cryptocurrencies —demonstrated by Zaremba et al. (2021)— can become a systematic and replicable strategy, especially in low liquidity coins. Learn to identify the right universe, build the signal, manage risk, and backtest the strategy with code ready for Google Colab.
Why am I publishing it here? Because 99% of traders who operate daily prefer to lose money rather than do a little hard work (read, backtest, research) to achieve real profitability.
What you will definitely find:
Discover how a powerful short-term reversal signal in cryptocurrencies —demonstrated by Zaremba et al. (2021)— can become a systematic and replicable strategy, especially in low liquidity coins. Learn to identify the right universe, build the signal, manage risk, and backtest the strategy with code ready for Google Colab.
Why am I publishing it here? Because 99% of traders who operate daily prefer to lose money rather than do a little hard work (read, backtest, research) to achieve real profitability.
BITCOIN IN 2026: BEAR MARKET OR DEEP CORRECTION?
#bitcoin
On October 1, 2025, Bitcoin did what few dared to dream a few years earlier: it marked a new all-time high of $126,884.
Euphoria in the markets, headlines in all the media, and a question hanging in the air: how long until 130,000? What no one had in the script was what came right after, a drop that started slowly, almost silently and without respite.
"A healthy correction," the optimists repeated. "We’re heading to 129K, to 130K, it’s just a breather." But the bounce never came. The red set in week after week, and with it came the prophets of doom: those who predicted a bottom at $48,000 and those who directly signed Bitcoin's death certificate.
On October 1, 2025, Bitcoin did what few dared to dream a few years earlier: it marked a new all-time high of $126,884.
Euphoria in the markets, headlines in all the media, and a question hanging in the air: how long until 130,000? What no one had in the script was what came right after, a drop that started slowly, almost silently and without respite.
"A healthy correction," the optimists repeated. "We’re heading to 129K, to 130K, it’s just a breather." But the bounce never came. The red set in week after week, and with it came the prophets of doom: those who predicted a bottom at $48,000 and those who directly signed Bitcoin's death certificate.
CONFESSIONS OF A NOVICE TRADER: BEYOND THE STOP LOSS 🪙 📊
#bitcoin
Do you know how much you can afford to lose before going broke?
When I started in the trading world, I heard an almost sacred rule that everyone repeated: "Never enter the market without a stop loss." And, honestly, I was grateful for that wisdom because it saved me many times from disastrous losses. But over time, I realized something: having a stop loss is not enough to optimally manage your losses.
The problem is not just in stopping losses to protect your account, but in understanding how much you can afford to lose without compromising your future as a trader. Here enters a concept that changed my life as a trader: deep loss management and, more specifically, the mathematical methodology of Ralph Vince's "optimal f".
Do you know how much you can afford to lose before going broke?
When I started in the trading world, I heard an almost sacred rule that everyone repeated: "Never enter the market without a stop loss." And, honestly, I was grateful for that wisdom because it saved me many times from disastrous losses. But over time, I realized something: having a stop loss is not enough to optimally manage your losses.
The problem is not just in stopping losses to protect your account, but in understanding how much you can afford to lose without compromising your future as a trader. Here enters a concept that changed my life as a trader: deep loss management and, more specifically, the mathematical methodology of Ralph Vince's "optimal f".
CONFESSIONS OF A NOVICE TRADER: TRADING IS MORE BORING THAN WATCHING A GAME ON MUTE
#BTC
I remember my early years of making a trade, feeling the adrenaline rush through my veins; trading back then felt like an extreme sport, my heart racing a thousand beats, an unknown highway with unknown obstacles in each candle, the continuous guessing of what would come next, whether a green candle or a red one, my ruin or my salvation, or a devastating wick at a level that at that moment I didn't know if it was relevant or not that would finally take me out of the Stop and out of my suffering.
Maybe you find that feeling familiar, feeling like the master of the world and then just another mortal, the EUPHORIA when a candle goes in your favor and the second feeling of PANIC when you are losing everything.
I remember my early years of making a trade, feeling the adrenaline rush through my veins; trading back then felt like an extreme sport, my heart racing a thousand beats, an unknown highway with unknown obstacles in each candle, the continuous guessing of what would come next, whether a green candle or a red one, my ruin or my salvation, or a devastating wick at a level that at that moment I didn't know if it was relevant or not that would finally take me out of the Stop and out of my suffering.
Maybe you find that feeling familiar, feeling like the master of the world and then just another mortal, the EUPHORIA when a candle goes in your favor and the second feeling of PANIC when you are losing everything.
CONFESSIONS OF A NOVICE TRADER: TRADING ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE CASINO
#TradingStories
You are trading in the markets similar to operating in a casino but on the wrong side... that was the verdict on my trading system, and I won’t say it didn’t affect me, but at least I could lift that weight off me that told me I was too CLUMSY for trading.
In the following lines, I do not intend to convince you of anything, but rather to share a reflection I learned from mistakes and losses. Yesterday, I was like you: I entered trading with illusions, inflated expectations, and in a short time, I lost what little I had. The worst part was not just losing money, but not knowing why I was consistently losing (many years of accumulated losses).
You are trading in the markets similar to operating in a casino but on the wrong side... that was the verdict on my trading system, and I won’t say it didn’t affect me, but at least I could lift that weight off me that told me I was too CLUMSY for trading.
In the following lines, I do not intend to convince you of anything, but rather to share a reflection I learned from mistakes and losses. Yesterday, I was like you: I entered trading with illusions, inflated expectations, and in a short time, I lost what little I had. The worst part was not just losing money, but not knowing why I was consistently losing (many years of accumulated losses).
CONFESSIONS OF A NOVICE TRADER XVI: THE DAY I UNDERSTOOD THAT LUCK DOES NOT EXIST
#bitcoin
That day, EVERYTHING CHANGED. I find it hard to admit, but I was one of those who desperately sought the secret formula for success, and I was waiting for LUCK, that miraculous technical indicator that could somehow encapsulate all the beauty of the dreamed profitability.
Like every morning, true to the discipline of being punctual in front of my screen (9:30 a.m. New York time), I was drawing plans, lines, and rectangles on the multiple charts of the American market, just to feel satisfied in my need for control over something I barely knew (a commercial pilot without a runway and without a plane).
That day, EVERYTHING CHANGED. I find it hard to admit, but I was one of those who desperately sought the secret formula for success, and I was waiting for LUCK, that miraculous technical indicator that could somehow encapsulate all the beauty of the dreamed profitability.
Like every morning, true to the discipline of being punctual in front of my screen (9:30 a.m. New York time), I was drawing plans, lines, and rectangles on the multiple charts of the American market, just to feel satisfied in my need for control over something I barely knew (a commercial pilot without a runway and without a plane).
CONFESSIONS OF A NOVICE TRADER XV: THE PATHS OF TRADING ARE NOT AS I IMAGINED...
#trading
I CONFESS that I always waited for THAT TRADE THAT WOULD MAKE ME A MILLIONAIRE and regardless of the math not adding up, I SEARCHED FOR IT LIKE THE HOLY GRAIL. I CONFESS that I fell into the VILE TRAP of high Leverage, cheap COINS (SHITCOIN), and the quick movements that only LEFT ME DRY... I always wondered what successful traders saw that I didn't, why they were winning while I kept seeing red numbers.
I CONFESS that I ALWAYS WANTED TO HAVE THAT GREEN LOGBOOK AND SHOW IT AS A SYMBOL OF HAVING DEFEATED THE MARKET.
I CONFESS that I always waited for THAT TRADE THAT WOULD MAKE ME A MILLIONAIRE and regardless of the math not adding up, I SEARCHED FOR IT LIKE THE HOLY GRAIL. I CONFESS that I fell into the VILE TRAP of high Leverage, cheap COINS (SHITCOIN), and the quick movements that only LEFT ME DRY... I always wondered what successful traders saw that I didn't, why they were winning while I kept seeing red numbers.
I CONFESS that I ALWAYS WANTED TO HAVE THAT GREEN LOGBOOK AND SHOW IT AS A SYMBOL OF HAVING DEFEATED THE MARKET.
BEAR MARKET OR CORRECTION IN BITCOIN?
#BearMarke
This FALL IN BITCOIN AND THE CONSEQUENT ALARMS THAT EVERYTHING HAS GONE TO M. REMEMBER THAT in 1929, in the midst of the Great Depression, Joseph P. Kennedy, a shrewd American investor, experienced a moment that would change everything.
While polishing shoes, the shoeshiner, who had no experience in markets, advised him to sell all his stocks because "everything was going badly".
This advice, far from alarming him, was a key signal for Kennedy. When everyone has an opinion (and they are not experts), the market is at its turning point.
This FALL IN BITCOIN AND THE CONSEQUENT ALARMS THAT EVERYTHING HAS GONE TO M. REMEMBER THAT in 1929, in the midst of the Great Depression, Joseph P. Kennedy, a shrewd American investor, experienced a moment that would change everything.
While polishing shoes, the shoeshiner, who had no experience in markets, advised him to sell all his stocks because "everything was going badly".
This advice, far from alarming him, was a key signal for Kennedy. When everyone has an opinion (and they are not experts), the market is at its turning point.
HACK THE PRICE: HOW TO INTERPRET THE INVISIBLE MOVEMENTS OF THE MARKET IN YOUR FAVOR
#MarketRebound
Do you think price is just a number on the screen? Think again.
Price is the secret language of the markets, a chaotic oracle that hides patterns, cycles, traps, and opportunities.
If you are a retail trader and want to stop being the prey to become the predator, you need to understand price from its guts: trends, cycles, heavy tails, and above all, how to leverage these fundamentals to hack your statistics.
Here are the hacks that no one dared to write.
Do you think price is just a number on the screen? Think again.
Price is the secret language of the markets, a chaotic oracle that hides patterns, cycles, traps, and opportunities.
If you are a retail trader and want to stop being the prey to become the predator, you need to understand price from its guts: trends, cycles, heavy tails, and above all, how to leverage these fundamentals to hack your statistics.
Here are the hacks that no one dared to write.
3 BRUTAL TRADING LESSONS THAT ONLY A SCAMMER COULD TEACH YOU
#MarketRebound
Are you playing to win... or just to not lose?
The true scammer is not that guy in a cheap suit with promises of magical returns. The true scammer is that little voice in your head that paralyzes you, that makes you watch opportunities pass by while you only worry about not losing the little you have.
How many times have you let fear steal your play? How many times have you preferred to stay still, instead of risking to truly win?
The biggest scam is not the one done to you from the outside, but the one you do to yourself every time you give up too soon, every time you prefer the 'security' of not losing to the real possibility of winning. Because in trading, as in life, those who play just to avoid losing... are already losing. Ready to discover the lessons that only a true scammer (or your worst internal enemy) could teach you?
Are you playing to win... or just to not lose?
The true scammer is not that guy in a cheap suit with promises of magical returns. The true scammer is that little voice in your head that paralyzes you, that makes you watch opportunities pass by while you only worry about not losing the little you have.
How many times have you let fear steal your play? How many times have you preferred to stay still, instead of risking to truly win?
The biggest scam is not the one done to you from the outside, but the one you do to yourself every time you give up too soon, every time you prefer the 'security' of not losing to the real possibility of winning. Because in trading, as in life, those who play just to avoid losing... are already losing. Ready to discover the lessons that only a true scammer (or your worst internal enemy) could teach you?
BITCOIN, BIASES, AND SURVIVAL: THE REAL PSYCHOLOGY OF PROFITABLE TRADING
#CryptoMarketAnalysis
Do you want to know why novice traders lose millions while institutions laugh from their VIP seats?
The reality of trading is different: while everyone rushes after headlines and rumors, the big players simply watch as billions disappear in seconds. Just last week, record liquidations surpassed 19 billion dollars in leverage after the fall of #bitcoin .
Are you ready to stop being part of the crowd and start playing seriously?
Do you want to know why novice traders lose millions while institutions laugh from their VIP seats?
The reality of trading is different: while everyone rushes after headlines and rumors, the big players simply watch as billions disappear in seconds. Just last week, record liquidations surpassed 19 billion dollars in leverage after the fall of #bitcoin .
Are you ready to stop being part of the crowd and start playing seriously?
ARE YOU THE TYPE THAT LEARNS BY READING OR DO YOU NEED TO URINATE ON THE ELECTRIC FENCE?
#bitcoin
“There are three types of people: those who learn by reading, those who learn by observing, and those who have to urinate on the electric fence by themselves.” Munger
Can you guess what type I was? Exactly: the third one. I learned the hard way, figuratively speaking, through shocks and hits. I discovered that trading is not learned from books or by watching others trade. It is learned by losing money and understanding why you lost it. The market gives you no respite. It will take everything from you before giving you anything.
“There are three types of people: those who learn by reading, those who learn by observing, and those who have to urinate on the electric fence by themselves.” Munger
Can you guess what type I was? Exactly: the third one. I learned the hard way, figuratively speaking, through shocks and hits. I discovered that trading is not learned from books or by watching others trade. It is learned by losing money and understanding why you lost it. The market gives you no respite. It will take everything from you before giving you anything.
CONFESSIONS OF A NOVICE TRADER XV: HOW I WENT FROM BEING CONSISTENTLY STUPID TO TRADING WITH RULES
#CryptoMarketAnalysis
Intuition does not work for trading. Rules do.
It doesn't matter how sharp you think your instinct is; if you rely on gut feelings or that 'sense' that the market is going to move in a certain direction, you are playing a dangerous game. The reason? Markets are not a casino (although they may seem like one to many). Money flows from impatient hands to patient hands, from those without a plan to those with a clear strategy.
The ruthless logic of the market
Intuition does not work for trading. Rules do.
It doesn't matter how sharp you think your instinct is; if you rely on gut feelings or that 'sense' that the market is going to move in a certain direction, you are playing a dangerous game. The reason? Markets are not a casino (although they may seem like one to many). Money flows from impatient hands to patient hands, from those without a plan to those with a clear strategy.
The ruthless logic of the market
🫀
Binance Square Official
·
--
BullishShow your favorite creators some love! 💛
Live Gifts are now live on Binance Square, and the best part? Zero fees!
What are you waiting for? LFG! 🚀
Live Gifts are now live on Binance Square, and the best part? Zero fees!
What are you waiting for? LFG! 🚀
The Powell period culminates in May 2026
Cointelegraph
·
--
Bitcoin’s ‘biggest bull catalyst’ may be the next Fed chair pick: Novogratz
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said Bitcoin’s price could see a significant rally if the next US Federal Reserve chair nominee to replace Jerome Powell is exceptionally dovish.
“That’s the potential biggest bull catalyst for Bitcoin and the rest of crypto,” Novogratz said in an interview with Kyle Chasse published to YouTube on Friday.
“Fed’s cutting when they shouldn’t be, and you put in a massive dove,” Novogratz said, adding that may lead to “your blow-off top” moment for Bitcoin (BTC).
“Can Bitcoin get to $200K? Of course it could…Because it becomes a whole new conversation if that happens.”
Novogratz emphasized that while the potential scenario of aggressive rate cutting would be bullish for crypto, it would come at a steep cost. “Do I want it to happen? No. Why? Because I kind of love America,” he said.
Novogratz says it will not be a good scenario for the US
“It would be really shitty for America,” he said, adding that it is possible the Fed is going to lose independence.
A dovish stance from the Federal Reserve is generally anticipated to weaken the US dollar. However, it is often perceived as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin and other risk assets, as traditional assets such as bonds and term deposits become less lucrative to investors.
Bitcoin is trading at $109,450 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap
Echoing a similar sentiment to Novogratz, Daleep Singh, vice chair and chief global economist at PGIM Fixed Income, recently said, “There’s a very decent chance that the FOMC looks and acts quite differently” after Powell’s term expires in May 2026.
“On a cyclical basis, I think the risks to the dollar are skewed to the downside,” Singh added.
Novogratz says it may trigger an “oh shit moment”
Novogratz warned that if Trump follows through on his pledge to appoint “a dove,” it could trigger an “oh shit moment.”
“Gold skyrockets…Bitcoin skyrockets,” Novogratz said.
“It was priced in that he was going to pick somebody dovey, but no one is quite sure,” he added.
Novogratz said the potential scenario probably won’t be reflected in the market until the decision is officially announced. “I don’t think the market will buy that Trump’s going to do the crazy, until he does the crazy,” Novogratz said.
Trump has reportedly narrowed his shortlist for the next Federal Reserve chair to three candidates: White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh.
“You could say those are the top three,” Trump told reporters at the Oval Office on Sept. 6.
The Fed delivered its first rate cut of 25 basis points in September, a move largely anticipated by the market, but Waller had been urging for a rate cut in July.
Magazine: ‘Help! My robot vac is stealing my Bitcoin’: When smart devices attack
“That’s the potential biggest bull catalyst for Bitcoin and the rest of crypto,” Novogratz said in an interview with Kyle Chasse published to YouTube on Friday.
“Fed’s cutting when they shouldn’t be, and you put in a massive dove,” Novogratz said, adding that may lead to “your blow-off top” moment for Bitcoin (BTC).
“Can Bitcoin get to $200K? Of course it could…Because it becomes a whole new conversation if that happens.”
Novogratz emphasized that while the potential scenario of aggressive rate cutting would be bullish for crypto, it would come at a steep cost. “Do I want it to happen? No. Why? Because I kind of love America,” he said.
Novogratz says it will not be a good scenario for the US
“It would be really shitty for America,” he said, adding that it is possible the Fed is going to lose independence.
A dovish stance from the Federal Reserve is generally anticipated to weaken the US dollar. However, it is often perceived as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin and other risk assets, as traditional assets such as bonds and term deposits become less lucrative to investors.
Bitcoin is trading at $109,450 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap
Echoing a similar sentiment to Novogratz, Daleep Singh, vice chair and chief global economist at PGIM Fixed Income, recently said, “There’s a very decent chance that the FOMC looks and acts quite differently” after Powell’s term expires in May 2026.
“On a cyclical basis, I think the risks to the dollar are skewed to the downside,” Singh added.
Novogratz says it may trigger an “oh shit moment”
Novogratz warned that if Trump follows through on his pledge to appoint “a dove,” it could trigger an “oh shit moment.”
“Gold skyrockets…Bitcoin skyrockets,” Novogratz said.
“It was priced in that he was going to pick somebody dovey, but no one is quite sure,” he added.
Novogratz said the potential scenario probably won’t be reflected in the market until the decision is officially announced. “I don’t think the market will buy that Trump’s going to do the crazy, until he does the crazy,” Novogratz said.
Trump has reportedly narrowed his shortlist for the next Federal Reserve chair to three candidates: White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh.
“You could say those are the top three,” Trump told reporters at the Oval Office on Sept. 6.
The Fed delivered its first rate cut of 25 basis points in September, a move largely anticipated by the market, but Waller had been urging for a rate cut in July.
Magazine: ‘Help! My robot vac is stealing my Bitcoin’: When smart devices attack
CONFESSIONS OF A NOVICE TRADER XII: THE CRISIS THAT ALMOST TOOK MY LAST $50
I love Bitcoin
THE STORY THAT WILL MAKE YOU RETHINK YOUR PATH AS A TRADER
Mark Twain once said, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes." If you don't understand the weight of those words yet, it's probably because you haven't faced trading, or maybe life hasn't hit you hard enough yet.
But, believe me, when you do, you'll understand the brutal truth behind them.
I've been away, I know. But it wasn't in vain. What I have to tell you isn't just my story, it's a warning. It's raw, it's heartbreaking, and you might not
THE STORY THAT WILL MAKE YOU RETHINK YOUR PATH AS A TRADER
Mark Twain once said, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes." If you don't understand the weight of those words yet, it's probably because you haven't faced trading, or maybe life hasn't hit you hard enough yet.
But, believe me, when you do, you'll understand the brutal truth behind them.
I've been away, I know. But it wasn't in vain. What I have to tell you isn't just my story, it's a warning. It's raw, it's heartbreaking, and you might not
If you think you are the smartest person in the room, you have a problem. There will always be someone better than you; the important thing is to know that your greatest competition is yourself and your greatest risk is ignoring that.
These are times for reading 🫀
These are times for reading 🫀
Recent Trades
3 trades
BTCUSD CM
Login to explore more contents