龚贺-御金而行

Last week, the international gold market continued to experience wide fluctuations under the dual influence of global central bank policy guidance and geopolitical situations. Prices gradually stabilized after repeatedly testing the support below, and the market's long and short positions entered a critical phase. As we approach next week, Old He believes that the medium-term trend of gold will be entirely determined by the core support level of 4320. This position is the key bullish defense line formed by the resonance of multiple cycles and patterns on the technical front. As long as it can effectively hold and stabilize, gold prices will have sufficient rebound momentum, gradually launching an assault towards the 4830 line in the medium term. Meanwhile, the ever-changing nature of the Trump administration's policies remains the biggest risk looming over the market, as its unpredictable decisions can easily break the rhythm of technical trends, triggering violent fluctuations in the precious metals market, necessitating constant vigilance.

This week, the international gold market showed a fluctuation trend of "first suppressed then rising, wide range oscillation". London gold started from around $4407/ounce at the beginning of the week, experiencing a complete cycle of bottoming out, rebounding, falling back, and rising again. The weekly trading range was between $4305 and $4603/ounce, ultimately closing at $4491.94/ounce, continuing the previous four weeks' downward trend, with a slower pace of decline compared to earlier periods. From the perspective of core influencing factors, global central banks maintain a tightening monetary stance, which continuously impacts gold prices. Several core officials of the Federal Reserve released tightening policy statements throughout the week, mentioning that the sticky inflation issue in the service sector remains unresolved, leaning towards extending the high-interest rate policy cycle, and not considering policy easing adjustments for the time being. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England have also maintained a similar stance, delaying plans related to policy easing. The market expectation of liquidity tightening among major global central banks continues to heat up, affecting the asset allocation enthusiasm for non-yielding gold to some extent. The latest market observation from the World Gold Council shows that the largest gold ETF—SPDR Gold Trust continues to reduce its holdings, with institutional long funds gradually exiting. Meanwhile, the fluctuations of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields dominate the short-term trends of gold prices. The dollar index strengthened and then fell back this week, briefly breaking through the 106 mark mid-week, driving the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to a relatively high level of 4.39%, raising the holding cost of gold and prompting orderly exits of long funds. On Friday, the dollar index slightly fell back, providing conditions for a rebound in gold prices, pushing London gold up by $87.36 in a single day, an increase of 1.98%. Additionally, the risk aversion sentiment related to geopolitical situations fluctuates repeatedly. Although there are signs of easing in the Middle East situation, the risks of passage in key transportation channels have not been completely eliminated, providing temporary support for gold prices. At the same time, the U.S. economy shows strong resilience, and market concerns about economic downturn are gradually easing, leading to a decrease in gold's safe-haven demand, which also impacts the rebound pace of gold prices.

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