Last week, the international gold market continued to experience wide fluctuations under the dual influence of global central bank policy guidance and geopolitical situations. Prices gradually stabilized after repeatedly testing the support below, and the market's long and short positions entered a critical phase. As we approach next week, Old He believes that the medium-term trend of gold will be entirely determined by the core support level of 4320. This position is the key bullish defense line formed by the resonance of multiple cycles and patterns on the technical front. As long as it can effectively hold and stabilize, gold prices will have sufficient rebound momentum, gradually launching an assault towards the 4830 line in the medium term. Meanwhile, the ever-changing nature of the Trump administration's policies remains the biggest risk looming over the market, as its unpredictable decisions can easily break the rhythm of technical trends, triggering violent fluctuations in the precious metals market, necessitating constant vigilance.
From the perspective of authoritative information, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank continue to release a hawkish policy tone, with both major central banks focusing on inflation control as their core objective, stating that they will maintain the current interest rate cycle to stabilize prices. The expectation of tightening global liquidity continues to loom over the market, directly suppressing the valuation of non-yielding gold. The official market report released by the World Gold Council shows that the pace of gold reserve allocation by central banks around the world has not slowed down. The ongoing official gold purchasing behavior has built a solid underlying support for gold prices, becoming an important source of support during price declines and laying the groundwork for future rebounds. The dynamic changes in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continue to disrupt market sentiment, while the Trump administration's policy statements on related geopolitical affairs have swung back and forth, with frequent changes in decision-making, leading to chaotic shifts in market risk aversion and becoming a core external factor exacerbating short-term fluctuations in gold prices.
From a technical perspective, 4320 is the core lifeline that the gold bulls cannot afford to lose. Its support strength is not reflected by a single technical signal, but rather is a resonance of multiple cyclical technical structures. From the daily chart perspective, this position is an important low point area that has been repeatedly tested and rebounded from in the past, forming a very strong psychological support line after multiple market tests. It also coincides with key medium- to long-term moving averages and previous areas of high trading volume, forming overlapping support. On the weekly chart, it corresponds to the core trend line node of the current medium-term upward trend, and the accumulation of multiple technical factors significantly enhances the effectiveness of this support. From the perspective of price behavior and market structure, the area around 4320 is an important correction point in the previous upward wave, where there have been multiple instances of concentrated capital support historically. The buying power is highly concentrated here, and once the gold price falls back to this area, the bearish selling pressure will quickly diminish, allowing technical buying to step in and support the price. From the operation of cyclical indicators, both short-term and medium-term bearish momentum have shown a clear weakening trend. As the price approaches 4320, oversold signals gradually emerge, and the divergence structure becomes increasingly clear. As long as the 4320 support remains solid, the resonance rebound signals from the technical side will be fully triggered, pushing gold prices out of the current oscillating adjustment pattern.
Under the premise that the 4320 support is effectively maintained, the medium-term upward path for gold prices will clearly point to the 4830 level, which also has a very strong technical orientation. 4830 is the core resistance node of the current medium-term adjustment phase, as well as the resonance suppression point between the daily descending trend line and previous peak connections. It is also widely recognized as the dividing line for medium-term strength and weakness, and serves as an important consolidation platform for the previous bullish trend. From the perspective of technical pattern simulation, once the 4320 support is solidified, the gold price will gradually restore the short-term moving averages, break through the recent oscillation range's resistance, and then steadily rise along the repaired technical pattern. 4830, as the core target for the medium term, is the inevitable direction after the release of bullish power. Stabilizing at this level would mean that gold has completely ended its medium-term adjustment and restarted a new upward structure, with the bullish trend in the technical aspect being fully established.
Another point worth noting is the unpredictable and fluctuating nature of the Trump administration's policies, which is currently the most uncontrollable risk factor outside of the technical trends of gold. Frequent changes in geopolitical and economic policies have repeatedly triggered extreme fluctuations in global financial markets, and gold, as a commodity that combines both safe-haven and financial attributes, is particularly affected by such policy changes. Sudden shifts in policy can directly lead to large-scale inflows and outflows of safe-haven funds, disrupting the original operational rhythm of technical analysis, resulting in irregular surges and declines in gold prices. This sudden volatility cannot be predicted through technical analysis and directly disturbs the balance of bullish and bearish forces, making it the core risk that the gold market needs to be vigilant about at present.
Personal opinion, not constituting investment advice.