This week, the international gold market showed a fluctuation trend of "first suppressed then rising, wide range oscillation". London gold started from around $4407/ounce at the beginning of the week, experiencing a complete cycle of bottoming out, rebounding, falling back, and rising again. The weekly trading range was between $4305 and $4603/ounce, ultimately closing at $4491.94/ounce, continuing the previous four weeks' downward trend, with a slower pace of decline compared to earlier periods. From the perspective of core influencing factors, global central banks maintain a tightening monetary stance, which continuously impacts gold prices. Several core officials of the Federal Reserve released tightening policy statements throughout the week, mentioning that the sticky inflation issue in the service sector remains unresolved, leaning towards extending the high-interest rate policy cycle, and not considering policy easing adjustments for the time being. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England have also maintained a similar stance, delaying plans related to policy easing. The market expectation of liquidity tightening among major global central banks continues to heat up, affecting the asset allocation enthusiasm for non-yielding gold to some extent. The latest market observation from the World Gold Council shows that the largest gold ETF—SPDR Gold Trust continues to reduce its holdings, with institutional long funds gradually exiting. Meanwhile, the fluctuations of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields dominate the short-term trends of gold prices. The dollar index strengthened and then fell back this week, briefly breaking through the 106 mark mid-week, driving the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to a relatively high level of 4.39%, raising the holding cost of gold and prompting orderly exits of long funds. On Friday, the dollar index slightly fell back, providing conditions for a rebound in gold prices, pushing London gold up by $87.36 in a single day, an increase of 1.98%. Additionally, the risk aversion sentiment related to geopolitical situations fluctuates repeatedly. Although there are signs of easing in the Middle East situation, the risks of passage in key transportation channels have not been completely eliminated, providing temporary support for gold prices. At the same time, the U.S. economy shows strong resilience, and market concerns about economic downturn are gradually easing, leading to a decrease in gold's safe-haven demand, which also impacts the rebound pace of gold prices.
From the evolution of daily key market conditions and technical trends, on Monday (March 24), gold prices rebounded after hitting a bottom, significantly dropping to a stage low of $4,305.32/ounce in the early session. Subsequently, with support from low-level buying, a technical rebound was initiated, ultimately closing at $4,472.02/ounce, an increase of 1.47%. The hourly Bollinger Bands expanded somewhat, with the three lines running overall downward. After breaking below the lower band, gold prices quickly rebounded, and the momentum of oversold rebounds gradually accumulated. On Wednesday (March 26), after a spike, gold prices fell back. During the period from Tuesday to Wednesday, gold prices were driven by market news, once strongly rising to a high of $4,603/ounce. However, influenced by the Fed's policy statements and the strengthening of the dollar, the market significantly retreated, with a single-day drop of $123.40 on Wednesday, a decrease of 2.74%, closing at $4,381.91/ounce. The 4-hour technical trend was overall weak, with gold prices breaking below the 50-day moving average support, and the middle and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands heading downward simultaneously, showing a weak arrangement. On Thursday, gold prices maintained a range of consolidation between $4,360 and $4,440, while Friday welcomed a noticeable rebound, with an intraday high of $4,551.55, ultimately closing at $4,491.94/ounce. The daily gold price re-established above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, with the RSI indicator rebounding from the oversold range to around 60, and the MACD indicator formed a golden cross with bullish momentum bars gradually increasing.
Comprehensive analysis of technical trends across various time frames shows that the hourly Bollinger Bands experienced expansion, contraction, and then expansion again this week. The slope of the three lines changed multiple times, with intense competition between bulls and bears. Gold prices repeatedly broke below the lower band and quickly rebounded, showing buying support below the $4,300-$4,400 range. The 4-hour trend gradually eased after reaching a peak in a weak state mid-week, and on Friday, gold prices broke through the middle band resistance of the Bollinger Bands, with the moving average system showing signs of turning upward. Daily indicators such as RSI and KDJ rebounded from the oversold area, and the MACD golden cross was formed, indicating a release of short-term downward momentum.
Market sentiment and capital flow aspect, this week market sentiment has differentiated significantly, with the concentrated reduction of positions at the beginning of the week contrasting with the optimistic sentiment over the weekend. On the institutional side, gold ETFs continue to reduce holdings, and the non-commercial net long positions in COMEX gold futures increased this week. Some speculative funds are trying to establish positions at low levels. In terms of physical gold demand, physical buying in Asia was notably active when gold prices fell below $4,400, providing certain support for gold prices.
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