币圈壹休哥

Charlie Munger:

If you want to be a strong person

You must undergo extraordinary training within three to five years

Train your humanity, train your courage

Train your spirit, train your skills

Take the best hour of your day to enhance your thinking

Then allocate the remaining time to mundane matters

In this hour, through extensive reading

Make friends with those great individuals who transcend time and space

These exercises will impact your destiny for a lifetime

Never be complacent, not even for a moment.

The company Berkshire Hathaway, founded by Buffett, has shown its annual investment returns from 1990 to 2025 for nearly 35 years. Over these three decades, its investment performance has exhibited a distinct characteristic of "long-term stable growth, but short-term volatility is severe." Overall, Berkshire has achieved extremely brilliant performance, recording positive returns in most years, demonstrating strong compounding growth ability. Especially in 1991, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2009, 2020, and 2024, the returns exceeded 40%, even reaching an astonishing 65% in 1991. These highlights greatly promoted the accumulation of long-term wealth. However, even investment masters like Buffett cannot avoid the baptism of market cycles. Several significant loss years are clearly visible in the chart, such as during the global financial crisis in 2008, when the company encountered a huge drawdown of 31%; additionally, losses of varying degrees were also seen in 1990, 2000, 2001, 2018, and 2022. This reaffirms the truth of investing: high returns must be accompanied by high volatility; there is no market that only rises without falling. This chart vividly depicts how a long-term investor, through decades of wind and rain, with outstanding stock selection ability and risk control, navigated through bulls and bears to ultimately achieve remarkable wealth appreciation.

Charlie Munger:

Your ambition must match your cognitive ability.

The world does not reward those whose talent does not match their position.

The core of value investing is to stay within your circle of competence,

only investing in areas you truly understand, avoiding opportunities outside of your cognitive reach.

Buffett told me: do not short sell, do not borrow money.

The most important thing is: do not engage in things you do not understand.

Most retail investors lose money regardless of bull or bear markets, and the reason lies here.

Those who win in short-term bets often continue to gamble, and in the end, they are highly likely to lose due to cognitive limitations.

Ambition is not gambling; true ambition is obtaining long-term returns from the intrinsic value growth of assets.

Support every decision with deep understanding; when cognition is in place, returns will follow.

If you can't bear large fluctuations, you can't expect returns of three to five times or even ten times. You can take a look at how those stocks that have increased more than three times over ten years have fared.
· Kweichow Moutai experienced a drawdown of over 50% in 2008, another in 2013, and a drawdown of 40% in 2018.
· Midea Group saw a drawdown of 60% in 2018, dropping from over 100 yuan to 40 yuan in two years.
· Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. also had a drawdown of over 50% in 2021.
· Fuyao Glass had drawdowns exceeding 50% in both 2008 and 2021.
These stocks have experienced multiples, dozens, or even hundreds of times increases since their listing, but throughout this process, they have all endured significant drawdowns. As Duan Yongping said: if you can't handle a 50% drawdown, don't buy it.
If you are unwilling to endure such large fluctuations, look for companies in the highway or banking sectors with high dividend yields, even if there are pullbacks, you can still benefit from high dividends. Losses only slightly lower the long-term return rate, but their fluctuations are also very small, making it hard to experience significant losses. However, many such stocks may only have a little over a double increase in ten years, and they also have to endure a significant drawdown of 30%.

Buffett:

In life, you only need to make 12 right trades.

If each time your returns double, starting from 10,000, after 12 times you will have 40,960,000.

This is not a myth, but a victory of quality. Every precise choice is a wealth fission.

Less but precise, steady but accurate. Compound interest is the miracle of time.

The key to young people's financial freedom is to desperately save the first 1 million.

The first 1 million is the hardest to earn, but even if you save to the extreme, you must first achieve this goal.

Because wealth growth is not linear, but exponential; this is the power of compound interest.

We cannot always earn money with our hands, because when our hands stop, income stops.

And people need rest and will age, so one must understand investment. $BTC

Dong Yuhui once said a very insightful passage:
“Never worry too much about your children,
nor worry too much about your parents,
most of your worries are basically in vain.
Because everyone has their own karma from three lifetimes,
and must reincarnate within their own karma.”
​​How many people spend their entire lives
worrying for others
​​worrying about their children
worrying about their parents
making themselves exhausted
​​What you think is responsibility
is actually overstepping
What you think is love
is actually a burden
​​Children have their own paths
they must walk themselves
Parents have their own fates
they must navigate themselves
​​You can protect for a moment, but you cannot protect for a lifetime.
​​Forcibly interfering with children
will only make them rebellious
Worrying excessively about parents
will instead add to their troubles
​​Everyone's life
has its exclusive trajectory
Suffering must be endured alone
Paths must be walked alone
​​The walls that must be hit
are all unavoidable
The flavors that must be tasted
cannot be substituted by anyone
​​Letting go of excessive worry is the greatest compassion.
​​Not forcibly changing children
Not desperately controlling parents
Respecting their choices
Accepting their lives
​​Managing your own emotions
Living your own life well
is the best fulfillment for your family
​​No entanglement, no internal strife
No overstepping, no forcing
Each performing their duty, each at peace with their fate
​​A family cares for each other
but does not bind each other
Watching over each other
but growing separately
​​This is the most comfortable familial love
the most insightful way to live
​​May we all
have one less obsession
and one more release
Guard our own karma well
Treat the relationships around us kindly
and live this life easily.

Charlie Munger:

The greatest pain in life is to be rich once and then lose everything, having to start over.

But 99% of people never have the chance to be rich twice; once they go up and fall down, they basically can't get back up.

Truly smart people have already found their own path of talent. If the direction is wrong, no matter how hard you try, you'll just be spinning in place.

I prefer to invest a large amount of funds in those places where no further decisions are needed.

To put it simply, it's about finding those simple, stable, good businesses that can continuously make money on their own, and then investing heavily, lying back and collecting money.

Instead of struggling with complex opportunities, it's better to see through the essence and put money into assets that can run on their own.

This is the truly worry-free and profitable smart strategy.

Yongping:

The money I make from investments is more than what I earned in ten years of real business.

My general rule for investing is: the more you put in, the less you earn, or the more you lose.

Playing ball and investing are the same; the most important thing is to avoid making mistakes, especially big ones.

As long as you make fewer big mistakes, the results are always good.

Patience is something that a true value investor must possess.

If you don't have it, you have no chance. Very few people have patience, and even fewer can succeed in investing.

Making big money in investments often doesn't rely on precise calculations, but rather on qualitative analysis. Quantitative just looks at downside risk, while qualitative is the source of profit.

Duan Yongping just said, "25% of Chinese families drink a bottle of 53-degree Feitian Moutai every year, and the annual production of Moutai is not enough." I casually asked my AI:
This is a very good "Fermi estimation" problem, let me break it down and verify it.
Number of Chinese families
China has about 1.4 billion people, and with an average of about 2.6–3 people per household, there are approximately 490–500 million households. 25% is about 125 million households.
Production of Feitian Moutai
Here, it is necessary to understand the production chain of Moutai liquor: it takes about 5 years from raw material input to factory output (1 year production cycle + more than 3 years of base liquor storage + blending followed by further storage). In recent years, Moutai has continued to expand production, but the key data is the output of finished liquor, not the output of base liquor.
Okay, the data is in hand, let's do the arithmetic.
Core data
Demand side: About 500 million households in China, 25% equals 125 million households. Each household drinks one bottle of 53-degree Feitian Moutai (500ml standard bottle), weighing about 0.5kg/bottle, so 125 million bottles ≈ 62,500 tons.
Supply side: In 2024, the production of Moutai liquor is 56,300 tons, and this 56,300 tons is the total production of all Moutai liquor, including 53-degree Feitian, 43-degree Feitian, Moutai vintage liquor, zodiac liquor, boutique, and premium products. Although 53-degree Feitian is the absolute main product, it is not everything; the actual production available for 53-degree Feitian should be further discounted.
Conclusion
This statement is basically correct, and it even says conservatively.
125 million bottles (≈62,500 tons) vs total Moutai liquor production of 56,300 tons—just the demand from 25% of families each having one bottle has already exceeded the total production of Moutai liquor, let alone that 53-degree Feitian is only a part of it.
Let's look at it from another angle: The annual sales volume of Moutai liquor is about 46,400 tons, which translates to about 93 million bottles of 500ml. With 500 million households in China, on average, about every 5-6 households get one bottle, far from "one bottle for every 4 households."
This is also the fundamental reason why Feitian Moutai has long been in short supply, with prices far exceeding the factory price—it is physically scarce.

Kweichow Moutai's Seven Major Price Cuts: The Real Big Earners Are All 'Biding Their Time'!\n1. 2002.3—2003.9: 39 yuan → 25 yuan, a drop of 35%\n2. 2008.1—2008.11: 230 yuan → 84 yuan, a drop of 63%\n3. 2009.12—2010.7: 176 yuan → 124 yuan, a drop of 30%\n4. 2012.7—2014.1: 266 yuan → 118 yuan, a drop of 56%\n5. 2015.6—2015.8: 290 yuan → 166 yuan, a drop of 43%\n6. 2018.6—2018.10: 803.5 yuan → 509.02 yuan, a drop of 36.6%\n7. 2021.2—2025.10: 2627.88 yuan → 1333 yuan, a drop of 47.72%, currently has risen above 1500 yuan\n\nIt can be clearly seen that Kweichow Moutai has experienced seven significant corrections in its history. Don't think that a large drop doesn't hurt—10 million dropping by 50% leaves only 5 million, and one will instantly feel 'out of money'; 1 million dropping by 50% leaves only 500,000, and one will directly feel 'very poor'. This aversion to loss is a psychological barrier that most people cannot overcome. Kweichow Moutai has historically experienced seven drops of over 30%, but as long as you can hold on and withstand the time, you will ultimately reach new highs.\n\nSo I often say: Those who can hold good stocks for the long term are all 'made of special materials'. They must establish a deeply ingrained equity thinking, abandon stock price thinking and cash thinking, become a good stock collector, focusing on accumulating equity rather than watching the ups and downs. Only in this way can one not fear major drops, but rather use declines, dividends, and cash flow to continuously collect equity. Of course, couples should also unify their understanding in advance; otherwise, family pressure will become the biggest obstacle to holding stocks.

Buffett:

True experts only take action in high probability opportunities.

Bet with reasonable capital, and then repeat continuously.

Making big money does not rely on buying and selling, but on waiting.

If you cannot accept a 50% drawdown, you are destined to accept a mediocre and unremarkable investment career.

A mature adult knows restraint, learns to delay gratification, and is not led by desire.

Wanting something and wanting to get it immediately? This mentality often leads to achieving nothing and even a downhill path in life.

I am not afraid to take risks, but you should take risks that you can afford.

Don't make 20 decisions in a year; doing so will certainly lead to mistakes. That is not value investing; making 20 investment decisions in a lifetime is enough.

Charlie Munger:

Remember that what is truly scarce is not tactical diligence, but strategic patience.

Wealth will always flow from those who lack patience to the pockets of those who have it.

If you are going in the wrong direction, turn around immediately; no matter the cost, it's the smallest price to pay.

There is a saying in Alaska: shortcuts are the fastest way to get lost.

Overtaking on a curve does not exist. Focusing on the essence is key; otherwise, even if you overtake, you'll be overtaken again.

Finding good companies is indeed very difficult, even more so than climbing a mountain.

If you really want to invest, what you need to stick to is: keep looking for good companies, understand the business, and at the very least, learn to avoid buying bad businesses.

The fundamental skill of investing is to understand the business, nothing more.

Duan Yongping:

The most expensive thing in investment is opportunity cost. Missing out is not scary; making the wrong investment is fatal.

After getting into investing, I found that the proportion of people willing to think is far smaller than I imagined.

The more anxious you are to make money, the easier it is to lose money. Most people rush into the market wanting to get rich quickly, only to become the harvested leeks.

When emotions run high, rationality goes to zero. Remember: wealth does not come to those who are impatient. Slow is actually the true fast.

Top-tier investments only involve multiple-choice questions: find the best opportunities, then invest heavily. Don’t waste your life on mediocre opportunities.

The essence of poverty is not laziness, but rather the inevitable result of ineffective effort and poor decision-making.

What I have today is due to not chasing mediocre opportunities.

Buffett:

In your lifetime, you may only need to grasp no more than 12 trades.

If you can double your funds each time, starting from 10,000, after 12 times, you will possess 40,960,000.

This is not a miracle, but the power of high certainty.

The saying that buying stocks is buying companies—if 1% of people truly understand this saying, it would be remarkable, and doing it is even harder.

It's very difficult to invest in businesses without understanding them. Buying stocks means buying companies; you need to understand the company, understand the business, and understand future cash flows.

Do not act blindly, but when you do act, it must be precise. Be decisive yet restrained, steady yet powerful; compound interest is a game for the wise to wait for.

Charlie Munger

In investing, what you should fear the most is not losses, but ignorance and impulsiveness.

True investment masters always have a ruler in hand.

Only select the current best opportunity as the ruler.

The higher the opportunity cost threshold, the more precise the decision.

For projects outside your circle of competence, you shouldn't even look at them.

Investment is just investment; it has nothing to do with who you are.

If you're not investing well, it would be better not to invest at all.

If you truly don't understand investing, don't touch it.

In this lifetime, if you do two things right, you can be very wealthy:

Discover what is effective and repeat it;

Discover what is ineffective and avoid it.

Investing is very fair:

What you ultimately earn is the realization of your understanding of this world.

Duan Yongping:

If you find a mistake, stop immediately; no matter how big the cost, it is the smallest cost. The later it is, the greater the price you will pay.

Being responsible = doing the right thing + doing things right. Knowing something is wrong and still doing it is being irresponsible.

Remember Buffett's 9 wealth codes for young people

Invest in yourself — it is a guaranteed business

Beware of free — the most expensive is often the cost

Protect your body and mind — your most precious asset

Recognize boundaries — do not touch areas you do not understand

Refuse to gamble big — do not risk core things

Work for love — passion is the best driving force

Find role models — benchmark against those you admire

Socialize upward — partners determine your level

Take decisive action — overcome fear, cherish the present

Buffett's review of 24 major stocks, at what PE to buy
​Bought American Express in 1962, pe14.2, stock price plummeted in 1964
Bought National Insurance in 1964, pe5.4
Bought See's Candies in 1972, pe11.9, strong moat, now privatized
Bought The Washington Post in 1973, pe10.9
Bought Nebraska Furniture Mart in 1983, pe8.5, low-cost acquisition, stable cash flow
Bought MetLife in 1985, pe14.4, later sold for profit
Bought Scott Vacuum Cleaner in 1986, pe7.8, consumer stock
Bought Coca-Cola in 1988, pe13, bought in 1988-1989, heavily invested to this day
Bought Fannie Mae in 1988, pe8, real estate
Bought Wells Fargo in 1990, pe6, real estate crash, bottom fishing for banks
Bought Gillette blades in 1990, pe23, leading consumer product
Bought Dexter in 1993, pe16, medical equipment
Bought Sinopec in 1999, pe13.5, energy stock
Bought Moody's in 2000, pe19, financial rating
Bought China Petroleum in 2003, pe5, bought during market downturn in 2003
Bought Walmart in 2005, pe20,
Bought U.S. Bancorp in 2006, pe12.5, finance
Bought ConocoPhillips in 2007, pe6.8, energy
Bought BYD in 2008, pe10.2, new energy
Bought IBM in 2011, pe13.5
Bought Davita Medical in 2011, pe17
Bought directTV in 2011, pe15, cable television operator
Bought Deere in 2011, pe11, leading agricultural machinery
Bought Apple in 2016, pe12, became heavily invested

Duan Yongping:

Many people fail, not because of their abilities, but because they are too impatient.

They always want to make a fortune overnight and reach the sky in one step, forgetting that true wealth and growth require time to slowly settle.

What I learned from Buffett is that the most important thing is the business model; a good business model is often a guarantee of good future cash flow.

Becoming rich is actually very simple: find effective things, stick to them, discover ineffective things, and stop immediately.

Truly capable people quietly accumulate strength rather than exhaust themselves for appearances.

Most people are too restless and worry too much. Success requires great calmness and patience, and when opportunities arise, one must be sufficiently proactive.

Investment, in essence, is a journey of cultivating the mind. What is cultivated is letting go of comparison, no longer looking around; what is cultivated is returning to a calm heart and seeing through short-term fluctuations.

Real long-term profit comes from growing together with the best companies, rather than exhausting oneself trying to guess market sentiments. When you no longer fantasize about making all the market's money, wealth will quietly come to you.

Duan Yongping:

What is truly scarce is not the diligence in tactics, but the patience in strategy.

Wealth will eventually flow silently from those who lack patience into the pockets of those who can wait.

Understanding the significance of Buffett is not about becoming the next stock god, but about clearly recognizing that investing is really difficult.

In more than a hundred years, the number of big shots on Wall Street who have left their names and generated profits does not exceed 100.

Peter Lynch, invested for 13 years, with an annualized return of 29%; Buffett, spanning 50 years, with an annualized return of 21%.

In China, over the past 30 years, there have been fewer than 20 public and private equity funds with publicly recorded annualized returns of 15% or more.

Speculation is like gambling on luck; you might win once or twice, but as long as you don't leave the game, you will eventually pay back the market both the principal and interest.

The true winners rely on the magic of compound interest, the accumulation of small daily improvements, and a positive cycle that can continuously snowball.

Slow is fast, and steady is profitable.