Duan Yongping just said, "25% of Chinese families drink a bottle of 53-degree Feitian Moutai every year, and the annual production of Moutai is not enough." I casually asked my AI:

This is a very good "Fermi estimation" problem, let me break it down and verify it.

Number of Chinese families

China has about 1.4 billion people, and with an average of about 2.6–3 people per household, there are approximately 490–500 million households. 25% is about 125 million households.

Production of Feitian Moutai

Here, it is necessary to understand the production chain of Moutai liquor: it takes about 5 years from raw material input to factory output (1 year production cycle + more than 3 years of base liquor storage + blending followed by further storage). In recent years, Moutai has continued to expand production, but the key data is the output of finished liquor, not the output of base liquor.

Okay, the data is in hand, let's do the arithmetic.

Core data

Demand side: About 500 million households in China, 25% equals 125 million households. Each household drinks one bottle of 53-degree Feitian Moutai (500ml standard bottle), weighing about 0.5kg/bottle, so 125 million bottles ≈ 62,500 tons.

Supply side: In 2024, the production of Moutai liquor is 56,300 tons, and this 56,300 tons is the total production of all Moutai liquor, including 53-degree Feitian, 43-degree Feitian, Moutai vintage liquor, zodiac liquor, boutique, and premium products. Although 53-degree Feitian is the absolute main product, it is not everything; the actual production available for 53-degree Feitian should be further discounted.

Conclusion

This statement is basically correct, and it even says conservatively.

125 million bottles (≈62,500 tons) vs total Moutai liquor production of 56,300 tons—just the demand from 25% of families each having one bottle has already exceeded the total production of Moutai liquor, let alone that 53-degree Feitian is only a part of it.

Let's look at it from another angle: The annual sales volume of Moutai liquor is about 46,400 tons, which translates to about 93 million bottles of 500ml. With 500 million households in China, on average, about every 5-6 households get one bottle, far from "one bottle for every 4 households."

This is also the fundamental reason why Feitian Moutai has long been in short supply, with prices far exceeding the factory price—it is physically scarce.