Don't go against the cycles; this is the most important lesson I learned from the last cycle. There is no super cycle, and don't blindly trust the big players; several of them get sacrificed each round.
In the past few days, I reviewed the current bear market, which is basically following the same pattern as the last bear market.
Last cycle (May 2022): $30,000 was considered the iron bottom of the super cycle at that time because it was the starting point after the disaster on May 19, 2021, and also the support of the weekly 120. I particularly remember that when it broke below $30,000, the fear index was already below 10, and a lot of bottom-fishing funds believed it couldn't drop further or that it was time to rebound.
Current cycle (February 2026): $80,000, which used to be a strong support level, has now become a strong resistance level at the weekly MA120. $80,000 is also the cost price for Bitcoin mining companies. The current $76,000 feels like the brief struggle after breaking below $30,000 in the last cycle; the market may very well have one more action that thoroughly shatters confidence, such as touching the peak of the last cycle at $69,000.
If it falls below $70,000, it will trigger a larger-scale stop-loss and liquidation, which could potentially exceed the massive trading volume from November 2025. Without extreme panic, rebounds often just serve to entice buyers.
During the cycle, never let emotions lead you astray; in extreme trend markets, emotional indicators can be misleading. A fear index of 10 indicates that retail investors are already hopeless, but the main players may still be using this despair for one last deep squat. Trend lines are more direct than any indicator; as long as the price remains below MA120, all upward movements are merely rebounds rather than reversals.
In the past few days, Bitcoin has also been constantly hitting new lows, recalling the trend of the last cycle. The expectation for a rebound after breaking down with volume in place is 20%, back then from $26,700 to $32,399. Based on the current situation, it can only be inferred that only after breaking $70,000 will there be significant volume released, with rebound expectations reaching slightly above $80,000 at the weekly MA120, anticipating a 15% increase.
Additionally, if viewed from the cycle perspective, Bitcoin should bottom out in November to December. What could the price be then? $70,000? $60,000? Or even lower?
The UAE, Saudi Arabia, and others are comprehensively advancing the digital integration of finance, identity, assets, and compliance. When the system is connected, the real bottleneck is no longer the blockchain technology itself, but how institutional processes are digitally expressed. Who approved the funds? Are they compliant with regulations? Are the assets compliant? These are not transaction issues; they are issues of verifiable institutional behavior records.
The core of Sign Protocol@SignOfficial is Schema (defining the structure of compliant behavior) and Attestation (recording the occurrence of behavior). It transforms user behaviors such as KYC and approved fund allocations into signable and verifiable structured data. Traditional Web3 projects remain at the application layer of wallets, DeFi, NFTs, etc., while Sign is positioned as the verification and recording layer connecting all systems, supporting the three major systems of fund flow, identity, and asset allocation. It has typical middleware characteristics: it does not directly face users, but all systems rely on it; once a standard is formed, the cost of replacement is extremely high. The digitalization scenarios in the Middle East require systems to be auditable, traceable, and verifiable, which is precisely the core goal of Sign's design. The current market pricing of SIGN still remains at the level of airdrop tools and signing tools, but from an institutional perspective, it is more like a combination of a database, audit log, and notarization system in the Web3 world. The true value of Sign lies not in user growth but in the depth of institutional embedding. If it is seen as the connecting layer in digital institutional infrastructure, its potential depends on: whether it enters sovereign-level systems, whether it becomes a cross-system standard, and whether it carries a unified format for trusted records. The truly scarce resource accelerating digitalization in the Middle East is not blockchain technology, but the ability to convert the rule execution process into machine-verifiable structures, which is the core reason why Sign deserves a re-evaluation of its value.
From the Middle Eastern narrative on Sign: Its potential lies in the institutional middleware positioning
1. Why does the Middle Eastern narrative amplify the value of Sign? The Middle East (especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia) is advancing something: digitizing and integrating finance, identity, assets, and compliance. This includes: • Stablecoins / CBDC • RWA (real estate and energy assets on the chain) • Digital identity (KYC, national identity systems) • Electronic signatures and compliance approvals The problem is: when these systems start to integrate, the real bottleneck is no longer the 'chain' or 'assets', but how the institutional processes themselves are digitally expressed. In other words, the system needs to answer:
When the flames of war reach Hormuz, who is still seriously building the underlying systems for the country?
In recent days, the cryptocurrency market has been experiencing occasional collapses. When the situation in the Middle East tightens, oil prices surge back to around a hundred dollars. Bitcoin was first smashed below 70,000 dollars, then quickly pulled back up, and now it has been pushed down again to its original position. The whole market is starting to repeatedly price the same issue: as local geopolitical conflicts enter a deep-water phase, what truly holds value is no longer just the liquidity story, but the digital infrastructure that can withstand sanctions, internet shutdowns, capital flight, and failures in cross-border settlements. Meanwhile, the on-chain RWA scale has nearly quadrupled in almost a year, surpassing 25 billion dollars. The direction of capital is very clear: hot money is still chasing narratives, while smart money is already looking for protocols that can bridge to the real world.
In recent days, the situation in the Middle East has intensified, with oil prices and risk aversion reaching new highs, and the cryptocurrency market has been re-evaluated as well. Many projects are still engaged in narrative building and traffic acquisition, while SIGN @SignOfficial has begun addressing tougher questions: when war, sanctions, and capital flight occur simultaneously, who can provide the country with a functioning digital underlying system?
The value of SIGN lies in sovereign-level infrastructure. It focuses on three core aspects: currency, identity, and capital. It can facilitate stablecoin and CBDC issuance, enable on-chain identity verification, subsidy distribution, and credential management, while also supporting RWA, cross-border settlement, and asset confirmation. Normally, it serves as an efficiency tool, but during special times, it acts as a backup grid for digital finance.
A practical example would be if a country wants to provide subsidies to refugees; traditional systems are slow, leak information, and operate in a black box. SIGN can put identity verification, distribution records, and collection receipts all on-chain, making the flow of funds clear and traceable. For instance, in the Middle East, cross-border trade settlements using SIGN-type protocols are better suited to meet the real needs of a high-friction era.
In the next cycle, the market might still be driven by emotions, but those protocols that can capture national-level demands are often the ones that can transcend cycles. SIGN bets on this future. However, a large token unlock is imminent, so let's see what it plays out as.
Recently, I saw that DeAgentAI has new developments here. After the frenzy, they are still doing a little bit of work.
On one side, the Genesis NFT has officially launched its second round of airdrop six months later, directly depositing AIA into the bound Sui wallet. On the other side, the Binance Alpha Box of $AIA has also airdropped again, which can be claimed on the Alpha Events page.
I think this matter is worth mentioning. Many projects surge when they are at their hottest, and once the heat passes after launch, the community and team vanish: TGE → pump → disappear. The recent actions of DeAgentAI show that the team continues to fulfill early promises, which is more important than just shouting narratives.
In the AI Agent track of 2026, what everyone is competing on is no longer whether they can tell a story, but whether they have the ability to continuously build infrastructure. Those who truly have the opportunity to stay at the table are often the teams that can push products, ecosystems, distribution, and communities forward simultaneously.
From this perspective, DeAgentAI's layout on both BNB and Sui is still worth following. Whoever masters the Agent infrastructure will hold the narrative power in the next round. DeAgentAI is the leading AI Agent infrastructure in the BNB & Sui ecosystem.
Congratulations, stablestock's Hong Kong stocks are now online, and both Hong Kong and US stocks can be traded on it. Now cryptocurrency exchanges and wallets can trade blue-chip US stocks, but there are still very few supported Hong Kong stocks. For example, Tencent, Pop Mart, Xiaomi, and Meituan have decent liquidity only in the Hong Kong stock market.
The trading depth of stablestock is directly connected to brokers, so there is no need to worry about depth slippage issues.
Trump's Repeated Pressure on Iran, the Shadow Over Hormuz Persists, Why SIGN is Starting to be Treated as Sovereign Infrastructure Revaluation
In the past week, the most sensitive variable in the market has come from the Middle East. Trump initially threatened to strike Iranian power facilities, then postponed the action deadline by five days, claiming progress in negotiations; on the Iranian side, they first denied direct contact, then rejected the 15-point ceasefire plan conveyed by the US through Pakistan, proposing their own counter-conditions, which centered around ceasefire, compensation, and control over Hormuz. News updates varied daily, causing oil prices, stock markets, and risk assets to fluctuate back and forth, with global capital once again feeling the impact of a saying: war first impacts energy, then hits settlement, payments, and cross-border trust.
Trump and Iran have been engaging in a back-and-forth battle over the past week, making global markets realize once again that what is truly scarce is not the hot sentiment, but the digital infrastructure capable of supporting sovereignty, settlement, identity, and capital flows. It is against this backdrop that SIGN @SignOfficial is being reevaluated by more and more funds, but it is important to note that SIGN will have a large unlock in a few days, so now is not the time to buy.
What makes SIGN unique is not merely its attempt to create an on-chain application aiming to become a sovereign-level digital foundation. It transforms the complex processes of cross-border payments, subsidy distribution, KYC, visa residency, and asset registration, which are originally scattered across different systems, into verifiable, auditable, and traceable on-chain proof. In simple terms, what SIGN sells is not just a story, but also institutional execution capability.
Such capabilities are called efficiency in peacetime, but during heightened geopolitical conflicts and capital outflows, they become real premiums. For instance, when Middle Eastern countries promote digital identity, compliant payments, and RWA asset tokenization, those who can simultaneously address identity trust, fund distribution, and asset confirmation will find it easier to enter national-level application scenarios.
The market is repricing SIGN, and as geopolitics rewrites the capital map, the value of sovereign infrastructure tokens has just begun to be recognized.
The past public chains were more like transparent glass houses, where transfers could be public but doing business was quite awkward. Institutions dared not expose their holdings, companies were reluctant to make their cooperation conditions public, project parties didn’t dare to disclose their bidding prices to the entire network, and AI agents couldn’t possibly expose their strategies and intentions to the market. The more transparent the chain, the harder it is for real business to occur. Midnight @MidnightNetwork is precisely targeting this gap. It uses selective disclosure and a dual-state ledger, allowing users to only prove the facts that must be proven without having to hand over all raw data. KYC can verify, and identity doesn’t need to be exposed; transactions can be compliant, and details don’t need to be made public; voting can be trustworthy, and personal choices won’t be observed.
So Midnight perhaps shouldn’t be understood as the next privacy chain; it is more like an on-chain business operating system. Whoever can make the real world go on-chain without having to expose everything has the chance to reap the largest dividends in the next phase. What Midnight aims for is precisely this position. #night$NIGHT #广场征文
Midnight may not be the next hot coin, but it is the next privacy infrastructure that must be reassessed.
In this round of the market, many people are still chasing new public chains, AI, and RWA, but those who are truly likely to reap the next phase of benefits may not be the faster chains, but rather the infrastructure that allows the real world to confidently go on-chain. The value of Midnight @MidnightNetwork is precisely here. Recently, the positive news about night has been very concentrated. At the beginning of March, Midnight City AI simulated its launch; on March 9, the official developer guide for the mainnet was released; in mid-March, Binance launched NIGHT spot trading; and more crucially, the project roadmap has pointed to the end of March 2026 for the Genesis Block and the launch of the federated mainnet. This indicates that it is no longer in the conceptual stage, but is moving towards a real product.
I took some money to test Binance AI Pro and have already earned back the monthly fee ($9.9). From now on, I will rely on AI to earn my monthly fee.
All skills in the Binance skill hub have been integrated, and AI will call them automatically.
However, it feels a bit lacking compared to my own openclaw, which is more user-friendly. 1. There is no specific judgment on long and short positions for trading data. 2. There is no panel to see what specific trades have been opened. 3. Add a trading initialization function to input data such as risk preference and trading style. 4. Add some research functions for various cryptocurrencies; this data is already available in Binance, along with news coverage.
The stablecoin bill has undergone changes, allowing reward mechanisms based on user activity within a limited scope, rather than directly distributing earnings based on account balances.
Trump's three black magic rules 1. Never admit you are wrong 2. Even if you lose, never concede 3. Even if you are really wrong, fight back against those who attack you
In the battlefield of power, controlling the narrative is far more important than possessing the truth
Someone has summarized three even more incisive points: sophistry + shamelessness + keep going
I can't believe I successfully connected to the local openclaw using WeChat. I won't get banned for chatting about analyzing Binance's contract data, right?
WeChat has launched a clawbot plugin that can connect to the local openclaw, making daily use very convenient.
1. Update your mobile WeChat to the latest version 8.0.70 2. On the computer where openclaw is installed, open the terminal and run the command: npx -y @tencent-weixin/openclaw-weixin-cli@latest install 3. If you encounter issues during installation, let openclaw or Claude code handle it 4. Open the terminal: openclaw channels login --channel openclaw-weixin 5. Use WeChat to scan the code for login 6. Your WeChat chat list will have an additional WeChat ClawBot robot; just start the conversation
Notes: 1. Currently, only one WeChat can connect to one openclaw 2. The function is still in gray testing; not everyone may have access 3. Scheduled tasks tested will not actively send, wait for future support 4. If you want the WeChat ClawBot to see images and generate pictures, it needs to connect to a multimodal large model and install the raw image skill.
Midnight may not be the next emotional hotspot, but it is likely one of the projects in this round of valuation re-evaluation.
Many people still understand the privacy track as anonymous coins, but Midnight's logic is completely different. It doesn't hide everything; rather, it allows you to prove only what you must prove. You can prove that you have completed KYC, are qualified, and comply with trading regulations, without having to expose all your identity information, asset paths, and transaction details on-chain.
This is precisely where its value lies. Real finance, RWA, institutional trading, AI agents—these scenarios all require being on-chain, but no one is willing to expose the most sensitive data to the entire network. Public chains solve the problem of being on-chain, while Midnight solves the question of whether one dares to go on-chain.
Its dual-token design is also quite distinctive. NIGHT is the core asset that is publicly traded, and DUST is the non-transferable privacy fuel. Holding NIGHT will continuously generate DUST, and what is consumed during actual transactions and contracts is DUST. This separates asset attributes from usage costs, making the system more suitable for high-frequency and long-term applications.
More importantly, Midnight has already entered the realization phase. The mainnet window is approaching, with developers migrating, the ecosystem launching, and exchange support all progressing. If the market still only sees it as a privacy concept coin, it may underestimate what it truly aims to accomplish.
In the next phase, the most valuable thing is not who can move more things on-chain, but who can keep truly important things securely on-chain. @MidnightNetwork
When Hormuz Starts Re-Pricing the World, SIGN May Not Be a Regular Coin
Recently, the re-pricing is not just limited to oil prices. The International Energy Agency mentioned in its report from March 2026 that the conflicts in the Middle East have nearly halted oil and gas transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting exports of about 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products; on the other hand, the digital financial infrastructure in the Middle East is accelerating, with Dubai's VARA continuing to advance regulations on virtual assets, and Abu Dhabi having plans for a dirham stablecoin under central bank supervision, as well as the first US dollar stablecoin registered with the central bank. The market is beginning to realize that what is truly valuable is not just energy itself, but also the underlying systems that maintain payments, identity, clearing, and capital flows amidst turmoil.
Recently, what has truly been re-evaluated is not just oil prices, but also the underlying logic of global capital, identity, and settlement systems. The situation in the Middle East is repeatedly escalating, and the risks in the Strait of Hormuz are rising. The market is beginning to realize that during turbulent times, what is most scarce is not liquidity, but rather credible payment, compliance, and collaborative infrastructure.
This is also the reason why SIGN @SignOfficial has been continuously focused on. Many people treat it as an ordinary cryptocurrency, but it is more like a verifiable sovereign-level trust network. It does not solve whether transfers can be made on-chain, but rather who is eligible to receive payments, who has completed compliance, what rules the funds are executed under, and whether the entire process can be verified and audited.
For example, government subsidy distribution, cross-border trade settlement, stablecoin clearing, institutional KYC certification—these scenarios all require a verifiable proof system. The value of SIGN lies here: turning identity, authorization, payment, and compliance records into verifiable facts on-chain.
Meme coins capture attention, ordinary public chains capture expectations, and SIGN captures the reconstruction of order. As both the Middle East and the world accelerate the upgrade of digital financial infrastructure, what SIGN represents is not just a currency, but potentially the underlying entry point for the next round of digital sovereignty and on-chain financial systems.
Now all exchanges have officially kicked off the great battle of perpetual trading in US stocks. Almost all exchanges have included high-quality US stocks such as Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Tesla, as well as SPY, QQQ, etc., into the 7×24 hour trading framework of the crypto market. The competition between exchanges has extended from the crypto assets themselves to global equity asset trading, expanding the scope and users to a higher level.
Binance's tradfi products can trade precious metals, stocks, ETFs, etc. It is a natural extension of the original U-based perpetual, using USDT settlement, an 8-hour funding fee, and maintaining the usage habits of crypto users. Moreover, the current limit order trading is still fee-free, which is attracting new users to join.
Coinbase's US stock perpetual contract products are aimed at regions outside the United States, and unlike other exchanges, it integrates US stocks, ETFs, and crypto perpetuals into the same USDC trading system, following a US compliance framework. Additionally, it is more proactive in the weekend pricing mechanism, allowing for more continuous price discovery during US stock market closures and shorter rate settlement cycles, making weekend price discovery more sensitive.
It is worth noting that almost all exchanges have chosen the same path, providing users with synthetic exposure rather than truly buying and selling stocks. This overlaps with the existing derivatives business, meaning that exchanges engaging in US stock perpetual trading are not only trying to capture the US stock market but also aiming to keep their crypto users within the platform, extending their trading needs from the crypto circle to US stocks.