0x_Arui

#金狗 #每天错过一个十倍币 #Web3 #实盘分享

Is the era of airdrops over?

I have been buying BTC every day recently

There are many opportunities on the chain

I will share my real-time profit and loss every day

No investment advice

DYOR

You can follow me on Twitter 0xarui

#空投教程 #BTC #ETH（以太坊） #撸毛

A friend asked me where to find the tutorial. Because it is inconvenient to post tutorials on Binance Square, you can follow me on Twitter @arui08. If you don’t want to follow me, you can directly get it from the link below!

I will update each tutorial in the link. Because I have work to do, the update is slow. If you need it, you can get it yourself. I hope every galliform person can get rich soon!

🔗Link: https://safe-galliform-131.notion.site/WEB3-30467556464d4362947d0c6dc75768d5?pvs=4

过去24小时，Polymarket上“原油（CL）三月底冲上105美元”的预测概率，竟然暴跌了近27个百分点，从近60%跌到了31.4%。这市场在撒谎，或者说，它在过度消化短期的平静。

Polymarket的聚合智慧通常是领先指标，它汇集了真金白银的押注，比主流媒体的噪音更能反映真实预期。但这次，我看到的是群体短期情绪的传染，而非对长期风险的合理定价。这种急剧的转向，往往不是基本面发生了根本性变化，更像是交易员对短期头条新闻的过度反应和止损潮。市场似乎过度解读了红海局势的暂时缓和，却选择性遗忘了中东这口随时可能爆炸的高压锅。

我认为，31.4%这个数字完全低估了地缘政治的尾部风险。也门胡塞武装可没说停手，伊朗和以色列的暗战也从未停止，这些都是随时能引爆油价的火星。如果仅仅因为几天没有头条新闻就觉得风险解除，那真是太天真了。别忘了，原油市场对任何形式的供给冲击都异常敏感，特别是在全球库存本就不算充裕的背景下。此外，OPEC+对油价的看护态度非常明确，他们有能力也有意愿进一步收紧供应。一旦全球经济展现出超预期韧性，对原油需求的强劲拉动也将成为助燃剂。

因此，我认为原油（CL）在三月底前触及105美元的概率被严重低估了，市场终将修正这个错误。我的判断是：原油（CL）大概率会在三月底前冲破105美元，并稳定在100-110美元区间。触发条件：中东地缘冲突在三月下旬出现实质性升级，例如红海航运再次遭遇重大袭击，或关键产油设施遭受攻击，导致供应中断的风险急剧上升。⏳

https://polymarket.com/?r=halelem

#Polymarket #预测市场 #宏观分析 #加密货币

The probability of Bitcoin dropping to $65,000 in March is as high as 100%—this is no joke; it is the result of real money bets on Polymarket, and in the past 24 hours, this probability has surged by 51.5 percentage points, with a total transaction volume of $10.1M. This is in stark contrast to the narratives we usually hear from mainstream media and cryptocurrency KOLs, such as 'bull market charging ahead' and 'ETF inflows are invincible,' and it is a direct blow to the current market sentiment.

Do I think the market is lying? No, the mainstream narrative is lagging behind reality. The 100% probability on Polymarket means that the smart money, which votes with their wallets, has reached a high consensus on the correction in March. They are not playing house; rather, they are positioning themselves based on deeper analysis and information, such as technical factors (Fibonacci retracement, key support levels), options expiration, or anticipated macro data adjustments. This extreme certainty is itself a strong signal, indicating that the current 'bullish sprint' may be hiding immense pressure for short-term profit-taking.

In contrast, mainstream media and social platforms often act as amplifiers of events rather than prophets. When Bitcoin hits a new high, they stir up FOMO emotions; only when a correction occurs do they start analyzing 'why it dropped.' This reaction mechanism means they are always a step behind, unable to capture the subtle changes within the market and the pre-pricing. Retail investors and most KOLs are more easily misled by short-term rises, ignoring the inevitable healthy correction risks that accompany rapid surges.

So, how will this contradiction converge? I believe **the price of Bitcoin will drop to $65,000 in March**. The market will first give way, or in other words, the market's predictions will be validated. The triggering conditions are simple: it's the profit-taking of smart money and the natural adjustment cycle of the market; after all, one can't keep charging too high without taking a break. This process is expected to be completed within March, at which point mainstream media will awaken, starting to search for 'reasons for the drop,' instead of issuing warnings now.

https://polymarket.com/?r=halelem

#Polymarket #PredictionMarket #MacroeconomicAnalysis #Cryptocurrency

On Polymarket, betting on the probability of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran before April 30 fell sharply by 7 percentage points yesterday, leaving only 30.5%—this is completely two different worlds from the mainstream narrative I see every day. The tone of mainstream media and social media still emphasizes the tensions in the Middle East, high risks of conflict escalation, and increasing geopolitical uncertainty. They seem to still expect some diplomatic efforts to bring about a breakthrough, or at least emphasize that 'dialogue is still ongoing.'

I believe there are fundamentally two narratives running in parallel, with the market and media's focus completely misaligned. The market is telling me with real money not to expect any ceasefire agreement in the next ten days. Meanwhile, the mainstream narrative still holds onto hope for superficial efforts, or rather, they are not taking the 'April 30' deadline seriously at all. This is dangerous because the money in the market never lies.

Is the market lying? No, the market never lies; it is merely a price discovery mechanism. The data from Polymarket reflects collective wisdom, with countless traders betting based on the information they have and their predictions about the future. The probability of 'not ceasing fire' being as high as 69.5%, coupled with a sharply declining trend, clearly indicates that investors have little hope for an agreement in the near term and even believe the situation is worsening. Money does not deceive; its pricing of geopolitical risks is far more real than press releases and diplomatic rhetoric.

The mainstream narrative is clearly lagging. Why? Because traditional media often focuses more on official statements, diplomatic gestures, and tries to maintain a narrative of 'hope,' which aligns with their information release pace and audience psychology. They might report that 'the U.S. is working to de-escalate,' but they will not directly provide an answer like 'what is the probability of these efforts succeeding before X month X day.' This narrative often fails to reflect the rapid changes on the ground or the true intentions and actions of key players, resembling more of a delayed commentary rather than a prediction.

How will this contradiction resolve? I believe the market will win, and the mainstream narrative will be forced to bow to reality. Once the time window of April 30 passes without a ceasefire agreement being reached, mainstream media will immediately shift from 'diplomatic efforts are ongoing' to 'diplomatic efforts have failed' and 'the situation continues to be tense.' This shift will happen quickly, within the next week. Cryptocurrency and macro markets will continue to price in high-risk premiums, awaiting a clearer signal. I predict that cryptocurrencies and risk assets will maintain a weak oscillating trend in the short term until there is substantial easing of geopolitical tensions.

https://polymarket.com/?r=halelem

#Polymarket #PredictionMarket #MacroAnalysis #Cryptocurrency

The YES odds on "Will Bitcoin drop to $65,000 in March" on Polymarket have surged by 52.5 percentage points in the last 24 hours, directly skyrocketing to an astonishing 100.0%—this is not a “possibility”, the market is screaming “inevitability”. A total trading volume of $10.1M indicates that this is not a trivial matter, but a consensus built with real money.

I believe that the market is not overreacting this time, but rather sensing blood in the water, betting on a brief but fierce cleansing. The phrase “drop to $65,000” is very critical; it does not say it will “stabilize below $65,000”, but merely “touch”. This often means a quick profit-taking wave, or a technical support level retest.

The driving forces behind this are likely a mix of macro and micro factors. Macroeconomically, next week’s CPI data is a suspense; if it exceeds expectations, the market will instantly tighten its expectations for interest rate cuts, suppressing risk assets; microscopically, although Bitcoin ETF overall is still experiencing net inflows, the continuous outflow pressure from GBTC, as well as the huge profit-taking after reaching new highs, have made the market on edge. If any negative catalyst occurs, such as a large player dumping, or a large-scale net outflow of ETF funds in the short term, the $65k defense line may be touched instantly. The market is not predicting a crash, but betting on a “must” healthy correction.

My judgment is: Bitcoin will **touch and briefly dip below $65,000** in the remaining time of March.

The triggering conditions for this event's probability to continue moving in the same direction are:
1. Next week’s U.S. CPI data significantly exceeds market expectations, reinforcing the Fed’s hawkish stance.
2. Bitcoin spot ETFs experience large-scale net outflows for more than two consecutive days, especially as large institutional investors begin to withdraw.
3. Major miners or long-term holding whales begin to massively transfer chips on-chain, triggering panic selling.

Conversely, if the following situations occur, the probability of “touching $65,000” will reverse, or may not happen at all:
1. CPI data meets or is below expectations, reigniting market hopes for interest rate cuts.
2. ETF fund inflows not only do not decrease, but accelerate, reaching new daily inflow historical highs.
3. A heavyweight macro fund or national sovereign fund announces a large allocation to Bitcoin.

The time window is very clear: it’s the **last few days of March**. Either a correction happens, or market sentiment completely reverses, breaking through all resistance to continue upwards.

https://polymarket.com/?r=halelem

#Polymarket #PredictionMarket #MacroAnalysis #Cryptocurrency

71.5%——This is the probability of the U.S. military entering Iran by April 30 on Polymarket, which has surged by 13 percentage points in the past 24 hours. Friends, this doesn't feel right; it's like the market is collectively imagining things, contradicting all the voices we hear from mainstream and social media.

Let's look at the mainstream narrative: The White House and Pentagon have been emphasizing that they are not seeking direct conflict with Iran, but rather trying to contain its influence through sanctions, diplomacy, and regional deterrence. While Israel has conducted airstrikes on the Iranian consulate in Syria, Washington has quickly distanced itself, even reiterating multiple times that it will not get involved in a broader regional war. On social media, the discussion revolves around how Iran will retaliate, rather than how the U.S. will "invade" Iranian territory. Where is any serious military analyst who would assign a 70% probability to the U.S. military launching an "enter" operation against Iran in three weeks without any signs of deployment?

I think this time the market's money is lying, or rather, it has been unhinged by fear and misunderstanding. The "entering Iran" on Polymarket typically refers to a substantial presence of ground troops, or even a large-scale invasion. This is worlds apart from "airstrikes," "special forces raids," or "cyberattacks." Organizing such an operation in just three weeks requires immense military mobilization, political consensus, and public preparation, none of which are present at the moment. The market may have over-interpreted the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran as a direct military strike by the U.S. on Iran, confusing the concepts of "regional conflict escalation" and "U.S. full invasion."

This sharp contradiction will soon converge, and the "yes" probability on Polymarket will yield to reality. As the April 30 deadline approaches, unless there are any substantial military actions or credible deployment signals, this 71.5% probability will shrink rapidly like a deflated balloon. I believe that in the next two weeks, that is, before mid-April, this probability will plummet significantly, ultimately returning to single digits or even lower—because the reality is, there are no signs that the U.S. intends to "enter Iran."

<a href="https://polymarket.com/?r=halelem">https://polymarket.com/?r=halelem</a>

#Polymarket #PredictionMarket #MacroAnalysis #Cryptocurrency

The prediction that crude oil prices will break 105 dollars before the end of March has seen a bullish probability surge by 14.5% within 24 hours, reaching 58.8%. This is no coincidence; rather, the market is sniffing out deeper risks. Behind this, Ukraine's repeated attacks on Russian refineries are the direct trigger—significantly reducing Russia's crude processing capacity and directly impacting global supply expectations, causing geopolitical premiums to soar.

I believe this is not just a temporary overshoot of retail sentiment, but rather genuine capital is being wagered. This surge in probability under high trading volume reflects institutional investors and hedge funds adjusting their positions based on new information. The market is preemptively digesting potential supply tightness; it’s not just the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the uncertainties in the Middle East are also continuing to ferment, and any slight disturbance will be amplified.

In the short term, I predict the probability of crude oil breaking 105 dollars will continue to rise. If Ukraine succeeds again in attacking key Russian oil facilities, or if there are any signs of escalation in the Middle East situation, such as the Red Sea conflict, oil prices will be pushed further up. However, if the United States releases strategic oil reserves, or if OPEC+ members like Saudi Arabia unexpectedly increase production, or if global economic data suddenly plummets, this bullish momentum will immediately reverse. The time window is before the end of this month; do not expect miracles, focusing on the supply side is the way to go.

https://polymarket.com/?r=halelem

#Polymarket #PredictionMarket #MacroeconomicAnalysis #Cryptocurrency

Only 13.5%? The "YES" probability on Polymarket regarding a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran before April 15 indicates that the market may be mispricing this significantly. This number suggests that either everyone believes a real full-scale war between the U.S. and Iran will break out, and miraculously a ceasefire agreement will be reached within just a few weeks; or the understanding of the term "ceasefire" is too narrow, overlooking the nuances of geopolitics.

I believe that the market may not have fully captured the "wisdom of the crowds" this time. Most people equate a "ceasefire" with a formal declaration of war that has already begun coming to an abrupt halt, which clearly does not match the current situation—the U.S. and Iran are not currently in a direct state of full-scale war. However, a "ceasefire" in geopolitics can have a broader interpretation: it may refer to both sides diplomatically agreeing, explicitly or tacitly, to stop all proxy conflicts, cyberattacks, or maritime harassment, achieving a significant de-escalation of tensions.

Let’s not forget that both the U.S. and Iran have strong motives to avoid direct full-scale conflict. For the U.S., an election year and the Middle East quagmire would only be a burden; for Iran, direct confrontation with U.S. military power is not an optimal strategy. Currently, the friction in the Red Sea and proxy conflicts in Syria and Iraq remain within controllable limits. If either side emits a strong de-escalation signal or reaches some sort of "tacit agreement" through third-party mediation, it could be interpreted as a broad form of "ceasefire."

Therefore, the market's current 13.5% probability, in my view, seriously underestimates the possibility of this "informal ceasefire" or "full de-escalation." It simplifies a complex, multi-layered de-escalation process into a binary opposition of "fighting—ceasefire."

My judgment is: US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? The probability of "YES" will **increase**.
Trigger conditions: Any official statement or reliable news regarding a significant reduction in hostile actions between the U.S. and Iran or their proxies, especially in the Middle East. This may include a reduction in attacks on each other's assets, lowering the intensity of verbal confrontations, or a third party (like Oman or Qatar) revealing mediation progress.
Time window: Within the next two weeks, especially as April 15 approaches, the market will reassess the possibility of this "informal ceasefire."

https://polymarket.com/?r=halelem

#Polymarket #PredictionMarket #MacroeconomicAnalysis #Cryptocurrency

Crude oil is expected to break $100 by the end of March, with 84.7% of people on Polymarket betting YES. This number is high enough to make me a bit uneasy. The market seems to be caught up in an extreme euphoric sentiment, but I believe this 'collective wisdom' may have gone off track.

Historical experience tells me that when the odds of an event suddenly soar to this level, especially for assets related to geopolitics, it often means the market has overreacted. Yes, the Red Sea crisis is still ongoing, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict has not settled down; these factors are all pushing up oil prices. But let’s not forget that these 'known unknowns' have mostly been priced in. For crude oil to rise from the current $77-78 to $100 requires a nearly 30% surge in just five weeks, which is no small feat—this means there needs to be a substantial daily increase with no pullback. This intensity is hard to sustain in the short term.

I believe the market may have underestimated a few key points this time. First, the pressure of a global economic downturn remains significant, especially with the complexity of the economic recovery in Greater China and the potential recession in Europe, which will limit the actual demand for crude oil. High oil prices themselves are a suppressor of the economy, and continued surges will only accelerate demand destruction. Secondly, let’s not forget OPEC+ and the United States. Both Saudi Arabia and Russia do not want excessively high oil prices to lead to a collapse of the global economy, which would affect long-term demand. If oil prices truly spiral out of control, OPEC+ has the full capability to adjust production strategies, and the U.S. may also tap into strategic reserves to stabilize prices—they do not want inflation to return, especially in an election year.

The trading volume on Polymarket is indeed not small, but it often shows a 'herd effect.' A 10.2 percentage point increase over 24 hours looks more like a panic buy and a FOMO (fear of missing out) driven trend. This short-term sentiment often does not represent long-term trends. True collective wisdom lies in a deep understanding of fundamentals and insight into historical cycles, rather than an immediate reaction to the news of the day. Currently, oil prices are digesting the geopolitical premium, but to add an additional increase of over $20 requires a truly black swan event—and the market often cannot accurately predict when a black swan will occur.

So, my judgment is: crude oil will **not** touch $100 by the end of March. The triggering conditions would be further weakness in global economic data, unexpected accumulation of U.S. crude oil inventories, or geopolitical tensions failing to translate into actual, large-scale supply disruptions. The YES probability on Polymarket will eventually fall back to the **20%-30%** range, and then we will see whether this 'smart money' is truly smart or not.

https://polymarket.com/?r=halelem

#Polymarket #PredictionMarket #MacroeconomicAnalysis #Cryptocurrency

The probability of the U.S. military entering Iran before March 31 has plummeted by 9.8 percentage points within 24 hours, leaving a pathetic 4.7% remaining. This is simply a loud slap in the face to those hawks hoping for a major conflict. In my view, this is not an emotional overreaction at all, but rather smart money quickly digesting the latest geopolitical signals.

The market reacts this way for clear underlying reasons. First, recent reports have indicated that the U.S. and Iran have conducted indirect negotiations through Oman, and this diplomatic mediation itself is a sign of de-escalation. Second, despite the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, there have not been any significant attacks since the early year Houthi attacks that would compel the U.S. to directly intervene in Iran, attacks that cannot be avoided. The market is telling you with real money that the White House does not want to escalate conflicts into a full-scale war during this sensitive period, especially in an election year.

I have always believed that those who expect the U.S. military to directly invade Iran are underestimating the political costs and military complexities. The initial probability of 14.5% was already somewhat overestimated; it resembles a fear premium regarding the overall uncertainties in the Middle East. Now, as the March 31 deadline approaches and we see no signs of large-scale military mobilization or any direct conflicts that could trigger a ground invasion, the market is returning to rationality.

Therefore, my judgment is clear: before March 31, the probability of "U.S. military entering Iran" will remain below 5%, and it may even further drop to 2-3%. Unless Iran directly attacks the U.S. homeland or its allies in the Gulf region, causing significant casualties, this probability is unlikely to reverse. However, the likelihood of such a situation occurring, in my view, is extremely slim. ⏳

https://polymarket.com/?r=halelem

#Polymarket #PredictionMarket #MacroeconomicAnalysis #Cryptocurrency

Last night, the probability of "yes" (YES) on Polymarket regarding whether Bitcoin will dip below $65,000 in March plummeted by 23.4 percentage points within 24 hours, currently only remaining at 44.4%—I think something is off; the market may be making a common sense mistake again. This sudden shift in sentiment likely overlooks the nuances of the prediction market contract itself or has been clouded by the frenzy of a short-term rise.

Why is this pricing suspicious? Because this contract asks "Will Bitcoin **dip to** $65,000", not "Will Bitcoin **end March below** $65,000". This is a crucial distinction. As long as Bitcoin touches $65,000 at any moment in March, even if it quickly rebounds after a brief dip, it counts as a "yes". For such a volatile asset like Bitcoin, a brief drop from the current level of over $70,000 to just under $65,000, a decline of only 7-8%, is quite common.

Looking back at Bitcoin's history, especially during key periods before market peaks or halving events, a 20-30% pullback is standard. Now that market sentiment is so high, the sword of Damocles of a pullback has never truly disappeared. While ETF fund flows are strong, profit-taking by large holders, sudden geopolitical events, or even just hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials could instantly trigger panic, leading to a brief drop in prices.

The "collective wisdom" of prediction markets like Polymarket is usually worth considering, as real monetary investments filter out more rational judgments. However, this time, the 44.4% "yes" probability, in my view, severely underestimates the possibility of this "brief touch". It reflects more of the market's optimistic expectation that the price will not drop below $65,000 by the end of March, rather than an accurate assessment of the "pin risk". This collective blind spot often presents us with opportunities for excess returns.

Therefore, my judgment is that the YES probability regarding whether "Bitcoin will drop to $65,000 in March" will ultimately **rise** and converge to the range of **60-70%** before the settlement of events at the end of March. The triggering conditions are simple: any macroeconomic data that falls short of expectations, large sell-offs on exchanges, or merely a technical pullback could very likely lead Bitcoin to briefly touch $65,000 at some point in March. The market will eventually awaken and reprice the true risk of this "brief touch".

https://polymarket.com/?r=halelem

#Polymarket #PredictionMarket #MacroeconomicAnalysis #Cryptocurrency

On Polymarket, a young driver, Kimi Antonelli, who has never officially appeared on the F1 track, has surprisingly been given a probability of as high as 31.6% by the market to win the 2026 F1 World Championship—this is completely different from what we usually see in F1 news. In the past 24 hours, this number has even skyrocketed by 14.2 percentage points, which is simply astonishing.

The focus of mainstream F1 media and social circles remains on Verstappen's dominance, the subsequent impact of Hamilton's transfer to Ferrari next year, and the future of rising stars like Norris and Leclerc. The general view on Antonelli is that he is a 'highly talented Mercedes junior,' who might secure an F1 seat in 2025 or 2026, but to place him on the candidate list for the 2026 World Champion with such a high probability is definitely a 'taboo' that mainstream narratives dare not touch.

I believe that this time it is not the market's money that is lying, but the mainstream narrative lagging behind reality, or rather, lagging behind the judgments of some individuals who possess insider information. This wave of skyrocketing on Polymarket is likely related to the recent circulated private testing performance of Antonelli. Reliable sources reveal that when driving an old F1 car, his speed can even rival or surpass Russell or Mick Schumacher. These unverified but seemingly credible 'insider data,' combined with the backdrop of Mercedes urgently needing to nurture future stars after Hamilton's departure, have led the market to sense a different flavor.

This contradiction will eventually converge, but the market's money will be the one to reveal the truth earlier. I believe that the YES probability of Antonelli winning on Polymarket will slightly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term due to this explosive rise, but the overall trend will continue to maintain a high level. Once Mercedes officially announces at the end of this year or the beginning of next year that Antonelli will be promoted to F1 in 2025 or 2026, especially directly into the Mercedes team, this probability will soar again. Only then will mainstream media and social narratives 'suddenly realize' and be forced to follow up, acknowledging that this young driver’s status and potential in F1 far exceed expectations. The triggering condition is any clear signal from Mercedes regarding Antonelli's future plans, with the time window being within the next 6-12 months. ⏳

https://polymarket.com/?r=halelem

#Polymarket #PredictionMarket #MacroeconomicAnalysis #Cryptocurrency

The market probability of the "U.S. military entering Iran before March 31" plummeted by 8 percentage points within just 24 hours, now standing at only 8.5%—this is essentially a cold shower for the funds that were previously blinded by fear. Did the market catch a whiff of something ahead of time? No, I believe this is more a rational return of panic sentiment, a strong correction against the excessive hype of the "war theory".

The market had previously pushed the probability up to double digits based on an overly tense interpretation of the Middle Eastern situation. Yes, the U.S. has indeed launched retaliatory strikes in the Middle East, but that targets proxy armed groups, and directly invading a sovereign nation like Iran is an entirely different matter. The Biden administration has long made it clear that they do not seek to go to war with Iran. Moreover, March 31 is just around the corner; for military actions of this scale, where is the wall that doesn’t leak? Large troop deployments, public opinion mobilization, international mediation… none of these preliminary signals are present. The market is lying, or rather, deceiving itself.

This 8.5% probability is less a prediction of "entering" Iran than a final bet on "accidental conflict" or "limited strike escalation". However, "entering" Iran would mean large-scale deployment of ground troops, radically altering the geopolitical landscape. This carries too great a cost for a U.S. president facing an upcoming election, and the risks are simply incalculable. Therefore, I believe the market did not catch any “peace signals,” but rather finally realized that there is no soil for such a fantastical script to unfold.

My judgment is that this probability will continue to decline, and could even drop below 5%. Unless two extreme events occur, there is no chance of reversal—first, Iran launching a large-scale, undeniable lethal attack on U.S. territory or its key allies; second, U.S. intelligence suddenly releasing solid evidence showing that Iran is on the verge of a breakthrough in nuclear weapons. Otherwise, before March 31 arrives, this 8.5% bet will ultimately prove how unreliable it is.

https://polymarket.com/?r=halelem

#Polymarket #PredictionMarket #MacroeconomicAnalysis #Cryptocurrency

The probability of 'yes' on Polymarket regarding whether Bitcoin will drop below $65,000 in March has bizarrely plummeted by 19.5 percentage points within just 24 hours, dropping directly from over 70% to 53.2%. This extreme volatility is not collective wisdom; it's more like the market being led by short-term emotions. I suspect there’s something fishy going on.

Has this market suddenly ‘forgotten’? In every major bull market in Bitcoin's history, hasn't it always been accompanied by thrilling corrections? March has never been a calm month; a correction of 10-20% is practically routine. Now, because Bitcoin has broken new highs, everyone thinks it can continue to rise without looking back? This contradicts any market principles.

The macroeconomic negative factors haven’t disappeared. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have been fluctuating, and inflation data occasionally brings surprises. Once any signs of trouble arise, those short-term funds and leverage will be the first to flee. The inflow into ETFs is indeed strong, but let's not forget that inflows can also slow down or even reverse, and the whales might choose to cash out at high positions at any moment. The market is clearly underpricing this potential selling pressure.

Therefore, I believe the market is currently overly optimistic. This indecision above key support levels, combined with the rapid reversal of market sentiment, precisely indicates that downside risks are being underestimated. Those who think Bitcoin cannot drop to $65,000 will soon be proven wrong.

My judgment is that the probability of Bitcoin dropping below $65,000 in March will **significantly rise** and eventually stabilize between **65% and 75%**. The triggering conditions could be any unexpected weakness in macroeconomic data or a normal market correction leading to a chain liquidation. The time window is within **this month**, so don't be blinded by the recent sideways appearance.

https://polymarket.com/?r=halelem

#Polymarket #PredictionMarket #MacroeconomicAnalysis #Cryptocurrency

In the past 24 hours, Kimi Antonelli's championship odds have skyrocketed by 11.8 percentage points. This is definitely not just the glow of a 'genius teenager'—the market is collectively betting on the Mercedes seat for 2026, rather than his championship capabilities. A 29.3% chance of winning is simply a fantasy for an F2 driver who hasn't even raced in F1. However, the trading volume and trends on Polymarket tell me that this move is not unfounded.

Anyone with a discerning eye knows that Hamilton will switch to Ferrari in 2025, leaving a top seat open at Mercedes, and Antonelli, as their 'prince', has naturally been pushed into the spotlight. The 11.8% increase is essentially a bet that he can sit in that silver arrow.

I believe the most likely scenario is: Antonelli successfully enters the Mercedes team directly in 2025 or 2026. The triggering condition is simple—Mercedes officially confirms him as a main driver or at least as a test driver with clear development plans. Once this news breaks, the odds for YES will skyrocket instantly, potentially hitting 40% or even 50%, because the market will consider he has received the 'ticket to the championship car', which is the biggest driving force behind the current odds increase.

Of course, it's also possible that Antonelli is 'demoted' to a customer team, such as Williams, to first gain experience, or Mercedes may choose veterans like Sainz or Alonso for stability. The triggering condition would be Mercedes signing other experienced drivers, or Antonelli's performance in F2 not meeting expectations, failing to reach the standard for stepping up to a top car. If this happens, the odds for YES will plummet, dropping below 10%, indicating the market's lack of confidence in his 'championship' rather than 'participation'.

The third scenario, which is the most ethereal: under the new regulations in 2026, Mercedes creates a dominant car like the Red Bull RB19, and the rookie Antonelli quickly adapts and defeats a host of veterans to win the championship. This is practically a fairy tale—let's not forget, the variables in the new regulations for 2026 are too great, and no one can guarantee their car will be strong. The triggering conditions for this scenario are a Mercedes car far ahead and Antonelli showing extraordinary talent and adaptability beyond his peers, but its probability is far lower than the first two.

The current enthusiasm in the market for Antonelli's 'championship' is, to be frank, overly leveraged by the expectation of him 'entering Mercedes'. A 29.3% chance of winning is too high; even if he secures a seat at Mercedes, defeating top drivers like Verstappen, Leclerc, Norris, and Russell remains a Herculean challenge. Therefore, if I were to bet now, I would choose to bet **NO**, waiting for the news on the Mercedes driver seat in the short term. If the YES odds rise further to 40% or even 50%, I would decisively short YES. I believe the time window is within the next 3-6 months, when there will be clearer signals regarding the Mercedes driver seat.

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Can crude oil (CL) surge to $105 by the end of March? The YES probability skyrocketed by 37.3 percentage points in just 24 hours, reaching 57.2%—this is definitely not a small matter, and the market is sending out an exceptionally strong signal. Clearly, this is not something that can be moved with just a few spare dollars; there must be significant information driving this.

I believe that the market's concerns over the Red Sea crisis and Middle Eastern geopolitics have escalated from "potential risks" to "imminent threats." Attacks by the Houthis and the spillover of the conflict between Israel and Hamas are pushing the uncertainty of crude oil supply to historic highs. Traders are rushing to price in the worst-case scenarios—once a key shipping route is blocked or an oil-producing country is embroiled in conflict, the global supply chain could be instantly paralyzed.

What is the market sensing? Most likely signs of escalating conflict. For example, the recent friction between Iran and Pakistan, as well as the U.S. continuing strikes against the Houthi forces in Yemen, have raised concerns that regional conflicts may spiral out of control. This worry, combined with OPEC+'s ongoing production cuts, has quickly consolidated bullish sentiment. But I must say, the rapid rise to $105 in such a short time also involves panic and chasing funds—perhaps the market has sensed something in advance, but it may also be overreacting.

My judgment is that before the end of March, crude oil prices will maintain a high-level fluctuation, but breaking through $105 will not be easy. If any form of truly large-scale production disruption occurs in the Middle East, such as an attack on a major oil field or a severe blockage in the Strait of Hormuz, then the target of $105 will not be a dream. Conversely, if tensions in the Red Sea unexpectedly cool down, or if any cracks appear within OPEC+, or even any signs of easing, then this 57.2% probability will quickly fall back or even reverse. The time window is within the next 6 weeks; any new escalation or de-escalation of conflict will be decisive.

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On Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin dropping below $65,000 in March has surprisingly surged by 38.6 percentage points within 24 hours, now reaching 69.0%—to me, this is purely the market being scared by a short-term correction, and it is not a rational pricing at all. This is not right, very much not right.

The so-called "wisdom of the crowd" in the market has clearly failed here, or rather, it has been hijacked by a strong short-term emotion. Just look at it, Bitcoin ETFs continue to record net inflows, various institutions are rushing in, and the halving narrative in April hangs like a sword of Damocles over the bears—against this backdrop, to conclude that there is nearly a 70% chance of it dropping below $65,000 within just a few weeks due to a slight pullback over a few days is clearly an over-interpretation of noise.

This phenomenon is not uncommon in prediction markets. When an asset experiences a significant rise followed by even the slightest fluctuation, people tend to amplify this negative signal, misjudging the short-term pullback as a trend reversal. Especially for those who have just entered the market and lack experience, they are more easily swayed by the panic emotions created by these "big players," hastily betting on "YES," thus increasing the probability of a downturn event. This is not based on in-depth analysis of macroeconomic data, on-chain data, or geopolitical risks, but more of an emotional game.

I believe that the market is currently seriously mispricing the likelihood of "dropping below $65,000." True smart money will not bet "YES" at this level.

My prediction is: by the end of March, the probability of Bitcoin dropping below $65,000 on Polymarket will significantly decrease, ultimately converging to below 35%. The triggering conditions are simple: as long as Bitcoin can hold steady in the current range of around $70,000, and no sudden, truly impactful black swan events occur that affect the macro narrative, the market will quickly correct the mispricing brought about by this short-term panic.

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Will crude oil futures prices surge above $100 before the end of March? The probability of 'YES' on Polymarket has surprisingly reached 76.5%, soaring nearly 45 percentage points within 24 hours—this market, I believe, is overreacting. The current optimism about crude oil prices has already digested most potential positives and risks in advance.

The current market betting on crude oil reaching $100 is nothing more than geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalating further, such as Houthi attacks affecting key oil transport lines, or OPEC+ suddenly ramping up production cuts. These are indeed potential risks, but the question is, how much of these risks are already priced in? I suspect that most are already reflected in the current 76.5% odds.

I believe the most likely scenario is that oil prices will continue to remain high, even slightly increase, but ultimately fail to reach $100 before the end of March. Unless a truly significant 'black swan' occurs—such as Iran directly confronting a major power, leading to the Strait of Hormuz being blocked—it will be difficult to have such massive upward momentum again. The global economic recovery is not solid, and U.S. shale oil has the motivation to increase production at current price levels; these are key factors suppressing oil prices from breaking through.

Of course, there is also a low-probability scenario where geopolitical tensions suddenly ease, or market concerns about a global economic recession dominate again. In that case, oil prices may quickly fall back, even dropping below $80. But this requires clear risk-off signals, which currently seem unlikely to happen in the short term.

My judgment is 'NO', crude oil futures will not touch $100 before the end of March. The triggering conditions are: no new, substantial, large-scale supply disruption escalation events in geopolitical matters, and global economic data failing to provide unexpectedly strong demand signals. If you were to ask my operational inclination, I would firmly bet 'NO'. The risk-reward ratio for buying 'YES' in the market right now is too poor, while the return potential for buying 'NO' is much greater, as I firmly believe that under the current conditions, breaking through $100 requires a bombshell far exceeding current expectations. 💣

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On Polymarket, the probability of crude oil reaching $95 before the end of March has skyrocketed to 100%—this is simply the market acting, or rather, someone is deliberately creating a false certainty. This 100% probability is itself very suspicious; it often reflects not true market expectations but a lack of liquidity or some concentrated manipulation of funds. I absolutely do not believe in such a 'done deal'.

I believe the probability of crude oil rising to $95 before the end of March is not high. The most likely scenario is that crude oil will fluctuate in the current range—around $80—peaking at the $85-90 range, but struggling to break through $95. This requires a cooling of geopolitical risks, OPEC+ maintaining its current production cut policy without further tightening, and a global economic recovery that is present but not enough to ignite demand. In this case, the odds for 'yes' will quickly correct, while the odds for 'no' will significantly increase and ultimately prevail.

Of course, there are low-probability events that could cause crude oil prices to soar like a rocket. For example, if the Middle East conflict truly spirals out of control, Iran gets directly involved, or a serious disruption occurs in the crucial Strait of Hormuz—then oil prices could instantly rise above $95. Alternatively, if OPEC+ suddenly announces unexpectedly large production cuts, combined with a dramatic drop in U.S. shale oil production. In these extreme scenarios, the odds for 'yes' will continue to be locked at high levels, but the triggering conditions are very stringent and not the current mainstream expectations.

In my view, the probability of crude oil failing to reach $95 is at least 80%. The reason is simple: the market has fully digested most of the geopolitical risk premium, and the current oil price (around $78-79) is nearly 20% away from $95, achieving such an increase within a month would require extremely strong and new catalysts. OPEC+ certainly wants to maintain high oil prices, but they will not push them up indefinitely to the point of stifling demand. Meanwhile, U.S. shale oil has an incentive to increase production above $80, creating top pressure. The global economic recovery still appears fragile and is insufficient to support such a violent surge in oil prices.

So, if I had to bet on this market, I would unhesitatingly bet 'no'. Because a 100% probability for 'yes' means that I would earn almost nothing by betting 'yes' while taking on enormous risks—if it doesn't reach $95, I lose all my money. Conversely, the odds for betting 'no' are very enticing, and from a fundamental analysis perspective, the likelihood of this event happening is much higher than the 100% given by the market. I believe that before the end of March, crude oil prices will maintain a fluctuation in the $80-90 range, struggling to break through $95. The market will ultimately correct its absurd 100% prediction.

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