Can crude oil (CL) surge to $105 by the end of March? The YES probability skyrocketed by 37.3 percentage points in just 24 hours, reaching 57.2%—this is definitely not a small matter, and the market is sending out an exceptionally strong signal. Clearly, this is not something that can be moved with just a few spare dollars; there must be significant information driving this.

I believe that the market's concerns over the Red Sea crisis and Middle Eastern geopolitics have escalated from "potential risks" to "imminent threats." Attacks by the Houthis and the spillover of the conflict between Israel and Hamas are pushing the uncertainty of crude oil supply to historic highs. Traders are rushing to price in the worst-case scenarios—once a key shipping route is blocked or an oil-producing country is embroiled in conflict, the global supply chain could be instantly paralyzed.

What is the market sensing? Most likely signs of escalating conflict. For example, the recent friction between Iran and Pakistan, as well as the U.S. continuing strikes against the Houthi forces in Yemen, have raised concerns that regional conflicts may spiral out of control. This worry, combined with OPEC+'s ongoing production cuts, has quickly consolidated bullish sentiment. But I must say, the rapid rise to $105 in such a short time also involves panic and chasing funds—perhaps the market has sensed something in advance, but it may also be overreacting.

My judgment is that before the end of March, crude oil prices will maintain a high-level fluctuation, but breaking through $105 will not be easy. If any form of truly large-scale production disruption occurs in the Middle East, such as an attack on a major oil field or a severe blockage in the Strait of Hormuz, then the target of $105 will not be a dream. Conversely, if tensions in the Red Sea unexpectedly cool down, or if any cracks appear within OPEC+, or even any signs of easing, then this 57.2% probability will quickly fall back or even reverse. The time window is within the next 6 weeks; any new escalation or de-escalation of conflict will be decisive.

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