The probability of 'yes' on Polymarket regarding whether Bitcoin will drop below $65,000 in March has bizarrely plummeted by 19.5 percentage points within just 24 hours, dropping directly from over 70% to 53.2%. This extreme volatility is not collective wisdom; it's more like the market being led by short-term emotions. I suspect there’s something fishy going on.

Has this market suddenly ‘forgotten’? In every major bull market in Bitcoin's history, hasn't it always been accompanied by thrilling corrections? March has never been a calm month; a correction of 10-20% is practically routine. Now, because Bitcoin has broken new highs, everyone thinks it can continue to rise without looking back? This contradicts any market principles.

The macroeconomic negative factors haven’t disappeared. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have been fluctuating, and inflation data occasionally brings surprises. Once any signs of trouble arise, those short-term funds and leverage will be the first to flee. The inflow into ETFs is indeed strong, but let's not forget that inflows can also slow down or even reverse, and the whales might choose to cash out at high positions at any moment. The market is clearly underpricing this potential selling pressure.

Therefore, I believe the market is currently overly optimistic. This indecision above key support levels, combined with the rapid reversal of market sentiment, precisely indicates that downside risks are being underestimated. Those who think Bitcoin cannot drop to $65,000 will soon be proven wrong.

My judgment is that the probability of Bitcoin dropping below $65,000 in March will **significantly rise** and eventually stabilize between **65% and 75%**. The triggering conditions could be any unexpected weakness in macroeconomic data or a normal market correction leading to a chain liquidation. The time window is within **this month**, so don't be blinded by the recent sideways appearance.

https://polymarket.com/?r=halelem

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