Bilal_With_Crypto

Rising U.S. real yields, especially on 10-year TIPS, pose a headwind to zero-yielding risk assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is facing renewed pressure as U.S. real interest rates climb, with investors shifting toward assets that offer positive real returns in an environment where inflation expectations remain relatively contained.
### The Role of Real Yields
Real yields — the return on investments after adjusting for inflation — have been rising steadily, particularly on longer-duration Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). The 10-year TIPS yield has recently pushed higher, reflecting stronger demand for inflation-protected government debt.
Unlike traditional bonds, Bitcoin offers no yield. In periods of low or negative real rates, this hasn't been a major issue, as investors were willing to accept zero or negative real returns in exchange for Bitcoin’s potential for outsized capital appreciation. However, when real yields rise meaningfully, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets increases.
"Higher real rates make cash and bonds more attractive relative to speculative assets," said one market analyst. "Bitcoin, being the quintessential zero-yield risk asset, tends to feel this pressure first."
### Market Impact So Far
Bitcoin’s price has shown signs of faltering in recent sessions, struggling to maintain momentum above key technical levels. While crypto markets have benefited from institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and broader macroeconomic tailwinds in recent years, the current environment is testing that resilience.
- Reduced Speculative Appetite: As real yields climb, retail and institutional investors may rotate capital into fixed-income products offering real returns.
- Strengthening Dollar: Rising real rates often support the U.S. dollar, which historically has an inverse relationship with Bitcoin and other risk assets.
- Liquidity Dynamics: Higher borrowing costs in real terms can tighten financial conditions, reducing leverage in crypto markets.
### Broader Macro Context
The surge in real yields comes amid mixed economic signals. While headline inflation has moderated from its 2022 peaks, core inflation remains sticky in certain sectors. The Federal Reserve’s policy path remains data-dependent, but markets are pricing in the possibility of fewer rate cuts than previously anticipated.
This shift has implications beyond crypto:
- Gold, another non-yielding asset, has also faced headwinds in recent weeks.
- Equities, particularly high-valuation growth stocks, are showing increased sensitivity to yield movements.
- Traditional bond markets are repricing as investors demand higher compensation for duration risk.
### What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Analysts are divided on the near-term outlook. Some argue that Bitcoin’s long-term narrative — digital scarcity, decentralized finance, and growing mainstream adoption — remains intact, and any weakness driven by macro factors could present a buying opportunity.
Others caution that sustained high real yields could prolong the consolidation phase or even trigger deeper corrections if risk sentiment deteriorates further.
"Bitcoin has matured as an asset class, but it’s not immune to classic macro forces," noted a crypto portfolio manager. "In a world where real money yields 2%+, the bar for speculative investments gets raised."
### Key Levels to Watch
- Support: $78,000 – $82,000 zone (psychological and technical support)
- Resistance: Recent highs near $90,000+
- Correlation Watch: Monitor the 10-year real yield closely; a break above 2.5% could accelerate pressure on BTC.
Investors are advised to stay attuned to upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including CPI, PPI, and employment figures, which will heavily influence real yield trajectories in the coming weeks.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk.

StraitsX, une entreprise basée à Singapour, a connu une croissance rapide de son programme de cartes en stablecoin, avec une augmentation de 40 fois du volume des transactions et une augmentation de 83 fois de l'émission de cartes entre 2024 et 2025.
Dans les marchés animés et les économies numériques de l'Asie du Sud-Est, une révolution silencieuse est en cours. Les paiements soutenus par des stablecoins deviennent si transparents que les utilisateurs ne réalisent souvent pas qu'ils utilisent des cryptomonnaies. En coulisses, des fournisseurs d'infrastructure comme StraitsX, basé à Singapour, transforment les rails de la blockchain en une couche "invisible" qui alimente les dépenses quotidiennes.

Washington state has joined a growing list of jurisdictions cracking down on prediction market platforms, filing a civil lawsuit against Kalshi accusing the company of operating an illegal online gambling service under the guise of “prediction markets.”
Washington Attorney General Nick Brown announced the lawsuit on March 27, 2026, claiming that Kalshi’s platform allows users to place bets on sports, elections, entertainment events, and thousands of other outcomes — activities that allegedly violate the state’s strict Gambling Act and Consumer Protection Act.
“Kalshi really is just a bookie with a fancy name,” Brown said in a statement. “Kalshi attempts to skirt state law by branding its betting platform as a ‘prediction market,’ but whatever Kalshi chooses to call it, Kalshi’s operations clearly fall under the definition of illegal gambling in Washington.”
The lawsuit, filed in King County Superior Court, seeks to shut down Kalshi’s operations in the state, recover money lost by Washington residents on the platform, and impose civil penalties.
### How Kalshi Works — and Why Washington Says It’s Gambling
Kalshi’s mobile app and website let users trade contracts on real-world events, where the payout depends on whether a specific outcome occurs. The state argues this structure mirrors traditional sportsbooks: users see events, odds, and potential payouts, which is “exactly how sportsbooks and other gambling operations function.”
The complaint highlights Kalshi’s own marketing, including an advertisement suggesting users could “bet on the NFL even though we live in Washington,” as evidence that the company knowingly targets residents in states with strict anti-gambling laws.
Kalshi has positioned itself as a financial innovation platform rather than a betting site, allowing users to “bet on anything” from election results to sports outcomes and even broader events. However, Washington officials reject this framing.
“Kalshi wants people betting on almost everything possible in life — the outcome of elections, Supreme Court cases, even wars,” Brown added. “It’s a lie, and it’s illegal.”
### Broader Context: Rising Regulatory Scrutiny
Washington’s action is the latest in a series of legal challenges facing prediction market operators in the United States. Several states have begun treating these platforms as unlicensed gambling operations, even as the industry argues it provides valuable information markets and hedging tools.
Kalshi, which has gained popularity for its election and sports contracts, has previously faced regulatory hurdles at both state and federal levels. The company maintains that its products are distinct from traditional gambling because they function more like event-based financial contracts.
In response to the lawsuit, Kalshi has pushed back, noting that the suit was filed just before a scheduled meeting with the Attorney General’s office. The company has disputed some characterizations, such as claims of offering “war markets.”
### What’s Next?
The civil suit emphasizes consumer protection. Under Washington law, individuals who lose money on illegal gambling activities may be entitled to recover their losses.
This case could have significant implications for the future of prediction markets in the U.S., especially as more states examine whether these platforms cross the line into regulated gambling territory.
The CoinDesk app screenshot in the story’s imagery highlights Kalshi’s presence on mobile devices, showing its “Trade the Big Game” branding and focus on sports, NFL, NBA, crypto, and tech events — precisely the type of offerings now under legal fire.
As the lawsuit progresses, the crypto and fintech communities will be watching closely to see whether prediction markets can survive increasing state-level pushback or if tighter regulations will reshape the industry.

Le mineur public moyen a dépensé 79 995 $ pour produire un bitcoin au T4 2025. Le bitcoin se négocie actuellement autour de 66 000 $–70 000 $. Les mathématiques ne fonctionnent pas, donc l'industrie s'oriente fortement vers l'IA, prenant plus de 70 milliards de dollars en contrats et liquidant des trésoreries de bitcoin pour financer le changement.
L'exploitation minière de bitcoin a toujours été une entreprise à enjeux élevés, intensive en capital, alimentée par une électricité bon marché, une échelle massive, et la croyance que détenir du BTC extrait rapporterait à long terme. Mais au début de 2026, l'économie s'est clairement retournée contre l'exploitation minière pure.

Le Czar de l'IA et de la crypto-monnaie de la Maison Blanche, David Sacks, a déclaré jeudi qu'il rejoignait le Conseil des conseillers du Président sur la science et la technologie et quittait le rôle de czar.
WASHINGTON — David Sacks, le Czar de l'IA et de la crypto-monnaie de la Maison Blanche, a annoncé jeudi qu'il quittait son poste très en vue de « czar » pour assumer un nouveau rôle au sein du Conseil des conseillers du Président sur la science et la technologie (PCAST).
Dans une déclaration, Sacks a déclaré que le mouvement s'aligne sur les priorités de l'administration pour intégrer directement la politique technologique de pointe dans les canaux de conseil de haut niveau.

The yield agreement, seen as a step toward finally advancing the stalled market structure bill, hasn't yet fully won industry support.
WASHINGTON — A hard-fought compromise on the long-awaited cryptocurrency market structure legislation has elicited a sharply divided response across the digital asset industry, with key players voicing everything from cautious optimism to outright skepticism.
The agreement, which aims to resolve sticking points around the classification of digital assets as securities or commodities, is being viewed by some as a critical breakthrough that could finally push the stalled bill forward in Congress. However, it has yet to secure broad-based endorsement from the crypto sector, highlighting the deep fractures within what has often been portrayed as a unified industry.
### Mixed Reactions from Industry Leaders
Prominent voices in the crypto space have taken to social media and public statements to weigh in on the development. Supporters argue that the compromise represents a pragmatic step toward regulatory clarity, which many believe is essential for institutional adoption and long-term growth of the sector.
"This is progress, even if imperfect," said one industry executive who requested anonymity due to ongoing negotiations. "We've been waiting years for clear rules of the road. This gets us closer to a framework that distinguishes between decentralized protocols and centralized intermediaries."
Critics, however, contend that the yield agreement concedes too much ground on issues such as decentralized finance (DeFi) oversight and stablecoin regulation. Some fear it could impose burdensome compliance requirements that might stifle innovation, particularly for smaller projects and decentralized applications.
A notable segment of the community has expressed frustration over what they see as a "watered-down" version of earlier proposals. "This isn't the comprehensive market structure bill we needed," tweeted one influential crypto commentator. "It's a patchwork that protects incumbents while leaving retail users and innovators exposed."
### Background on the Market Structure Bill
The cryptocurrency market structure bill has been in development for several years, with multiple iterations failing to gain sufficient traction in Congress. The legislation seeks to establish a clear regulatory regime for digital assets, addressing key areas such as:
- Asset Classification: Clear guidelines on when a digital token qualifies as a security versus a commodity.
- Decentralized Finance (DeFi): Rules governing lending protocols, decentralized exchanges, and yield-generating products.
- Stablecoins: Oversight and reserve requirements for dollar-pegged tokens.
- Market Integrity: Measures to prevent manipulation, fraud, and ensure fair trading practices.
Proponents of the bill argue that without such a framework, the United States risks falling behind global competitors like the European Union (which has implemented MiCA) and Singapore in attracting crypto businesses and talent.
### Path Forward Uncertain
While the yield agreement marks a potential thawing of the legislative stalemate, significant hurdles remain. Lawmakers from both parties continue to debate the scope of the bill, with concerns ranging from investor protection to national security implications of crypto.
Industry groups are expected to ramp up lobbying efforts in the coming weeks as the bill moves through committee stages. Some analysts predict that further amendments may be necessary to bridge the divide between pro-innovation factions and those prioritizing stricter consumer safeguards.
The fractured response underscores a broader reality in the crypto industry: while there is near-universal agreement on the need for regulatory clarity, consensus on the specifics remains elusive.
As one veteran observer put it: "The crypto crowd isn't a monolith. This compromise is a mirror reflecting our own divisions — between maximalists and pragmatists, between those building infrastructure and those focused on financial freedom."
The article will continue to evolve as more details emerge from Capitol Hill and as reactions from major players like Coinbase, Binance.US, and decentralized protocol developers continue to pour in.
Stay tuned for updates as this story develops.

Riding the crypto boom to become one of 2025's hottest stocks, HOOD has shed more than 50% of its value since Bitcoin topped in early October.
Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) announced on March 24 that its board of directors has approved a new $1.5 billion share repurchase program, significantly expanding the company's capacity to buy back its own stock amid a sharp pullback in its share price.
The new authorization replaces prior programs and adds more than $1.1 billion in incremental buyback capacity. Management expects to execute the repurchases over approximately three years, beginning in the first quarter of 2026, though the company is not obligated to purchase any specific number of shares or complete the program within a set timeframe.
The move comes as Robinhood's stock has faced intense pressure in 2026. After more than tripling in value during 2025—fueled by surging cryptocurrency trading volumes and record company performance—HOOD shares have dropped roughly 39% year-to-date and over 50% from their peak since Bitcoin hit its high in early October 2025.
### Strong 2025 Backdrop Meets 2026 Reality
Robinhood rode the 2025 crypto bull run to post record results. The company reported full-year 2025 net revenues of $4.5 billion (up 52% year-over-year) and net income of $1.9 billion, with crypto transaction revenue playing a major role in the surge. Assets under custody reached new highs, and the platform added millions of users drawn to its user-friendly trading experience for stocks, options, and digital assets.
However, the broader crypto market cooled sharply toward the end of 2025 and into 2026. Bitcoin's decline from its early-October peak triggered a broader sell-off in crypto-related stocks, including Robinhood, whose fortunes remain closely tied to retail trading enthusiasm and digital asset volatility.
### Confidence from the Board and Management
In a statement accompanying the 8-K filing, Robinhood CFO Shiv Verma emphasized long-term optimism:
> “Robinhood is a generational company with a massive long-term opportunity. This authorization reflects the confidence of our management team and board in our ability to continue delivering innovative products for customers and creating value for shareholders while returning capital over time.”
The buyback program signals that Robinhood views its current valuation as attractive and believes repurchasing shares will enhance shareholder value by reducing the outstanding share count and potentially boosting earnings per share over time.
Simultaneously, Robinhood expanded its short-term credit facility to $3.25 billion (with the potential to increase to $4.875 billion), further strengthening its financial flexibility.
### Market Reaction
Following the announcement, HOOD shares rose modestly in extended trading, reflecting investor appreciation for the capital return signal even as the broader downtrend persists.
Analysts note that while the buyback provides a floor of support, Robinhood's stock remains highly sensitive to crypto market movements. A sustained recovery in Bitcoin and renewed retail trading activity could help the company regain momentum in the second half of 2026.
Robinhood previously authorized a $1 billion buyback in May 2024 and added $500 million in April 2025, during which it repurchased over 25 million shares at an average price of approximately $45.

The crypto industry got a first look at legislative language that won't allow rewards on stablecoin balances, and the approach is seen as restrictive.
WASHINGTON — The long-stalled Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (commonly known as the Clarity Act) has taken a significant step forward with new language on stablecoin rewards that explicitly prohibits payments for simply holding balances, according to sources familiar with the latest draft text.
The compromise, reached in principle last week by Senators Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) and Thom Tillis (R-NC) with White House backing, draws a clear line: passive yield on idle stablecoin holdings is banned, while activity-based rewards tied to actual usage — such as payments, transfers, platform activity, or loyalty programs — remain permitted.
This distinction aims to prevent stablecoins from functioning like unregulated bank deposits that could pull funds out of the traditional banking system, a major concern raised by banking industry lobbyists. However, the restrictive approach on balance-based rewards has left many in the crypto sector disappointed, with insiders describing the language as "cringe-worthy" and overly cautious.
### Background on the Compromise
Negotiations over stablecoin yield had been the primary roadblock preventing the Clarity Act from advancing in the Senate. The bill, which seeks to provide comprehensive regulatory clarity for digital assets, including market structure rules for exchanges, DeFi protections, and stablecoin oversight, had been bogged down for months.
Earlier versions of related legislation, including the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act signed into law in 2025, already prohibited direct interest payments by stablecoin issuers. The latest Clarity Act draft builds on that by targeting "rewards" that resemble interest on holdings.
Section 404 of the evolving Senate draft reportedly states that digital asset service providers may not pay interest or yield "solely in connection with the holding of a payment stablecoin." At the same time, it carves out allowances for rewards linked to transactions, remittances, wallet or platform usage, liquidity provision, and certain ecosystem participation.
The compromise is viewed as a win for traditional banks worried about deposit flight, but a potential setback for crypto platforms that have relied on yield-bearing stablecoins to attract and retain users in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols.
### Industry Reaction and Implications
The Blockchain Association and other crypto advocates have pushed hard for more flexibility, arguing that banning passive rewards would stifle innovation and make U.S.-based stablecoins less competitive globally. Platforms like Coinbase have explored rewards programs as a key part of their stablecoin strategy, though analysts note such incentives are not central to their overall revenue.
"This language reflects a heavy-handed attempt to protect legacy banking at the expense of consumer choice," one industry source said on condition of anonymity. "It treats holding a stablecoin like a savings account — which regulators clearly want to avoid — while allowing some workarounds through activity-based incentives."
Critics within crypto warn that the restrictions could reduce demand for dollar-pegged stablecoins issued or held in the U.S., potentially driving activity offshore. Supporters of the compromise, including banking interests, counter that unregulated yield on stablecoins poses systemic risks and blurs the line between crypto and traditional finance.
A similar version of the Clarity Act passed the House of Representatives last year, and a parallel draft cleared a markup in the Senate Agriculture Committee. With the yield issue now largely resolved (described by some as "99% done"), attention is shifting to remaining details around DeFi regulation, token classification, and political packaging.
### What's Next?
Senate leadership is eyeing a potential markup or floor vote as early as April or May 2026, though a crowded legislative calendar and midterm considerations could push timelines further. The White House has signaled support for the framework, which could help unblock broader crypto market structure legislation.
For the crypto industry, the coming weeks will be critical. While the bill offers much-needed regulatory certainty in many areas, the stablecoin yield restrictions may force platforms to rethink incentives and pivot toward transaction-based or usage-driven rewards models.
As one observer put it: "The industry got a framework. Banks got their yield ceiling. Now everyone has to figure out how to live with it."

La Commission des valeurs mobilières des États-Unis (**SEC**), en collaboration avec la Commission des contrats à terme sur matières premières (**CFTC**), a publié des lignes directrices interprétatives conjointes marquantes clarifiant comment les lois fédérales sur les valeurs mobilières s'appliquent aux cryptomonnaies et aux actifs connexes. Ce développement, annoncé le 17 mars 2026, et couvert dans des reportages récents (y compris un article de CoinDesk daté du 22 mars 2026), vise à mettre fin à des années d'incertitude réglementaire dans l'espace crypto en fournissant un cadre plus clair pour déterminer si une cryptomonnaie est considérée comme une valeur mobilière.

The Bitcoin options market is flashing signals of extreme fear among investors, even as spot prices stabilize around the $70,000 level. According to a recent analysis from investment firm VanEck, the premium for downside protection—primarily through put options—has reached a new all-time high, reflecting heightened caution and defensive positioning in the crypto space.
In VanEck's mid-March 2026 Bitcoin ChainCheck report, analysts highlighted that despite Bitcoin's price consolidating near $70,000 following a roughly 19% drawdown in the 30-day average, traders are aggressively hedging against further declines. Realized volatility has notably cooled, dropping from around 80 to just above 50 over the past month, indicating reduced day-to-day price swings and a cooling of leveraged speculation in futures markets. Funding rates in perpetual futures have also declined from 4.1% to 2.7%, pointing to less aggressive bullish leverage.
Yet, this apparent stabilization hasn't eased investor nerves. Put/call open interest ratios (measuring bearish vs. bullish options bets) peaked at 0.84 and averaged 0.77—the highest since June 2021 and placing it in the 91st percentile of observations since mid-2019. This skew shows unusually strong demand for downside hedging relative to upside bets.
Even more telling, premiums paid for put options relative to spot trading volume hit a record ~4 basis points—roughly 3x the elevated levels seen during the mid-2022 market turmoil following the Terra/Luna collapse and Ethereum staking issues. Total premiums for puts over the past 30 days stood at $685 million (down 24% month-over-month but still above 77% of monthly observations since early 2025). Meanwhile, call premiums weakened, falling 12% to around $562 million.
Total Bitcoin options open interest has climbed to over $33 billion, underscoring the scale of institutional and professional activity in derivatives. This "peak defensiveness," as VanEck describes it, suggests many participants are prioritizing protection over speculation, potentially viewing the current price range as vulnerable despite the calmer realized volatility.
Bitcoin's current price hovers in the high $68,000 to low $70,000 range as of late March 2026, remaining about 45% below its all-time high of $126,080 set in October 2025. On-chain activity has also been subdued, with transfer volumes and fees declining amid a shift to off-chain venues like derivatives and ETFs.
Historically, such extreme hedging and fear in options markets—especially when paired with cooling volatility and contained selling pressure from miners and long-term holders—has occasionally marked local bottoms or turning points rather than the start of deeper breakdowns. Whether this defensiveness proves prescient or overly cautious remains to be seen, but it clearly illustrates a market that's stabilized in price but not yet in sentiment.