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【In-depth Analysis】If a black swan arrives, where is BTC's 'century iron bottom'? Lock in the extreme range of $29,800 - $37,600
If the future market encounters liquidity exhaustion or a macro black swan (such as a U.S. stock market recession), where will Bitcoin drop to? Based on the MVRV model, on-chain holding costs, and CME historical gaps, whether in 2025 or 2026, once a major bear market begins, $29,800 - $37,600 will be the ultimate defense in a mathematical sense.
This is not panic; it is preparation for a 'once in a decade' golden pit. 👇
🔍 Why is it $29,800 - $37,600? Three major pieces of evidence
In this range, the technical aspects and on-chain data have formed a perfect resonance:
The emergence of this chart can be said to have added the heaviest, yet most precise 'macro time lock' to our entire bear market deduction! If the indicators from previous times (LTH unrealized loss ratio, 1.37 ratio) were like using a magnifying glass to find the 'short-term downward space limit', then this chart of 'STH real cost (red line) dead cross market real average price (blue line)' stands from a god's perspective, directly illustrating the macro lifeline of the entire bear market. Let's combine this latest and highly decisive data to conduct a final 'macro and micro stitching' of the previous deductions:
$FHE Leopard number 0.027777 bottom probing and rising by 25% strongly recommended to buy in batches at least 5 times starting! Low leverage, looking at 1U for the long term. Wait for 2 months and look back, you will thank me
$KAT Finding the bottom and stabilizing, bulls counterattack! Buy in batches: 0.01780 open 40%, 0.01720 add 30%, 0.01660 add 30% Stop loss: 0.01600 Take profit: 0.01900 / 0.0202 High profit-loss ratio, steadily grasp the rebound!
✅Gradual buying: Open 40% of the position at 0.2790, add 30% at 0.2770, add 30% at 0.2750 🛡️Stop loss: 0.2720 🎯Take profit: 50% off at 0.2900, fully exit at 0.3011
Profit and loss ratio over 3:1, high win rate model! Strictly control position, rational trading.
Reasons why the true 'cycle time bottom' may still point to mid to late 2026.
Since we deduce that the true 'time bottom' may point to mid to late 2026, the 'price bottom' coinciding with this time window will likely fall within the core defense line we previously delineated based on on-chain data: between $30,000 and $40,000, with the extreme spike still being that CME ghost gap at $29,760. It is impossible to predict the absolute lowest point, but we can likely categorize the bottom in mid to late 2026 based on different levels of market panic into three scenarios: 1. 🛡️ Conventional cycle bottom (likely scenario): $37,600 - $40,300
$BTC Wu said that, according to SoSoValue data, yesterday (Eastern Time February 12) the total net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs was 410 million USD, with none of the twelve ETFs experiencing net inflows. The total net outflow of Ethereum spot ETFs was 113 million USD, with none of the nine ETFs experiencing net inflows.
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