Since we deduce that the true 'time bottom' may point to mid to late 2026, the 'price bottom' coinciding with this time window will likely fall within the core defense line we previously delineated based on on-chain data: between $30,000 and $40,000, with the extreme spike still being that CME ghost gap at $29,760.

It is impossible to predict the absolute lowest point, but we can likely categorize the bottom in mid to late 2026 based on different levels of market panic into three scenarios:

1. 🛡️ Conventional cycle bottom (likely scenario): $37,600 - $40,300

* Core Logic: Long-Term Holder Cost Line (LTH Realized Price)

* If no global macro financial crisis occurs in mid to late 2026 (such as an epic collapse of the US stock market), and it is merely a self-deleveraging cycle of the crypto market, then a drop to this point would be about right.

* At this position, those who have held coins for more than half a year, the 'veterans', are also beginning to face paper losses. Historical experience shows that when the price approaches or slightly drops below the LTH cost line, it often marks the 'extreme cold moment' of the 1380-day cycle, and is also the place where the final handover of chips occurs.

2. 🧱 Depth Washout Bottom (Medium Probability Scenario): $30,500 - $33,500

* Core Logic: Historical Maximum Chip Accumulation Zone (Volume Profile POC)

* If the sideways period lasts too long, leading to extreme lack of liquidity in the market, the main force may choose to make a deep 'false breakdown' downward to clean out the last of the weak-willed.

* The area around $30,500 is the largest trading volume zone for Bitcoin in recent years (Maginot Line). A massive amount of institutional spot positions are accumulated here, and at this position, the market's buying power will absorb the selling pressure like a sponge.

3. 🦢 Black Swan Extreme Bottom (Low Probability Scenario): $29,760

* Core Logic: CME Gap Unfilled + Liquidity Crisis

* If 2026 is accompanied by a severe external crisis (such as a Federal Reserve policy error, escalation of local wars, or a super-sized industry black swan), the market may experience indiscriminate panic selling.

* The price may accurately dip down in an extremely short amount of time (perhaps only a few minutes or hours) to fill the CME gap at $29,760, and then quickly reverse in a V-shape. This belongs to an extreme opportunistic chance that is 'encountered but not sought'.

Summarize your deductions:

Due to the previous sharp decline (from 97k to 60k in 21 days) having released most of the high-level leverage risk, the market may not necessarily need to find a bottom in the form of a 'crash' in the coming time.

It is more likely to occur in this way: a prolonged desperate wide fluctuation between $40,000 and $60,000 for several months, followed by a downward feint at some point in mid to late 2026 (touching the edge of $37k or even $30k), completing the fateful handover of 1380 days, and finally completely starting the next cycle.