诸葛投研

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Latest market outlook: Overall bearish, short-term rebound expected.

1. The overall direction remains bearish, with the Fear and Greed Index, global inflation, and low expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. These major trends have not changed, so I will continue to patiently wait for lower levels.

2. The logic for the short-term (2-3 weeks) market is very simple: continue to fight and it will drop, ceasefire and it will rise. I detailed the underlying logic in last week's article.

3. Will fighting continue? It feels like both sides want to talk now, and they are making some moves at the negotiating table to gain leverage, because while they are aggressive in words, the actual impact of their actions is currently minimal. Given that both sides want to talk, I don't think the situation will escalate, and it may even end in 2-3 weeks, at which point there could be a rebound.

Latest Update | The project party has shipped, everyone sell it

The recent $R2 can be held for now, its selling pressure is only 1% of Alpha's airdrop, and the community has countered it, so the selling pressure is relatively low, which is like a solo game.

Just not sure if the project party will dump the price. If the project party does not dump the price, it is the tenth project of Binance MVB, so there is still some hype to talk about. I plan to hold onto it myself and see if there are any insider trades or significant dumps from the project party on the chain later; if not, it will basically rise.

$BASED can be sold directly after grabbing it, the pool price is 0.075u, and it is now 0.12, which is a good price. Its community has a 16% airdrop share, which will be automatically sent to wallets starting at 18:00 today, and there will basically be selling pressure.

Binance Alpha has secured 2 hours of early access time for everyone, so cherish it.

Who else!!!🧧

I saw a trending topic on Weibo this morning: Xu Zhisheng revealed that he lost 120,000 yuan in a month while starting a business, but he is still persevering, and everyone praises him for his sense of responsibility and for sticking to it.

Many people believe that perseverance is good, but I think it may not be. Looking at the reasons for the losses in image 2, I think it's better to close the business early. Duan Yongping once said: when you realize you are wrong, correct it immediately; no matter the cost, it is the smallest cost.

Thinking of this, I remembered a conversation I had with a friend last week: he opened a $ETH 10 times leverage to ask me if the risk is high. I said the risk is very high, and it is easy to face liquidation. As the conversation went on, he also realized that the risk is very high, but he is reluctant to cut losses and reduce his position, saying he would reduce his position when he breaks even; as a result, he encountered a large drop that day, and by the evening, his principal loss exceeded 50%, yet he still believes that his perseverance is correct, blaming the market for lacking fairness.

Not all perseverance is good; the premise of perseverance is being on the right path. Walking on a wrong path, the longer you persist, the more absurdly wrong it becomes.

No wonder they keep saying that the results of the polls are inaccurate; with this kind of survey method, it would be suspicious if they were accurate.

$EDGE Xiaoc C said that EDGE has already gone to the next door's boost, so going up to Alpha tomorrow should be stable? How many brothers are shorting

Yesterday I placed a bet of 6.25w on $BTC and didn't manage to catch it. After some hesitation, I've decided to increase my position for two reasons:

1. Ten ships were allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz two days ago, indicating that both sides are indeed negotiating. Since they are negotiating, no matter who ultimately concedes, oil prices will drop, and inflation will be suppressed;

2. Once this war ends, Trump will definitely need to make an effort for his midterm elections; he has already broken his promise from the election to "not start a war," so to secure his midterm elections, he must go full throttle to create favorable conditions. Therefore, I am starting to look bullish on $BTC ;

So I've decided not to wait any longer and to increase my position now, anticipating news of the war ending in mid to late April, news of some cooperation agreements during May's visit to China, and news of Trump's self-rescue for the midterm elections from June to November.

How many Alpha black slaves are still holding on? Next Monday is the New Year again, and there will be a double meal!

At 4 PM, normally this time should be TGE, $Based, but there is no key deployed on-chain, I suspect it's an airdrop; at 6 PM there should be another airdrop, $R2, which has also been monitored on-chain. However, the threshold for the airdrop is probably not low, it might be above 250 points, everyone should be mentally prepared.

Brothers, Alpha is approaching the New Year again, and there will be several TGEs: Based, EDGE, ST, all of which will be on TGE. Does everyone still have some and $BNB ?

Now the news in the United States is basically all about the wolf coming, which is meaningless. I set the bottom price and let the market jump by itself $BTC $SOL

Binance has finally issued a statement to rectify market makers, which is a relief. For some project teams, this is not market making; it is clearly open manipulation, and some even need to change what is written in the smart contract. The behavior is too disgraceful $TAO $SIREN $RIVER

I have calculated it for you, $PRL is another small amount of less than 30u:

1. The fundraising share is 1% of the token, with a unit price of 0.01u, which means a fundraising target of 155 BNB;

2. The threshold is only 242 points, basically now 70% of the 125,000 people brushing Alpha meet the threshold, let's say about 80,000 people. I estimate 20,000 people will participate in TGE, which means that 60,000 BNB can be raised, with an oversubscription of 390 times.

3. In the case of an oversubscription of 390 times, each person needs to deduct a cost of 5u; based on the current pre-market price of $PRL being 0.075u, it can be sold for 37.5u, leaving a profit of 32.5u.

So everyone shouldn't have too high expectations, earning a little is good. Of course, there are two discrepancies: first, the number of participants in TGE will definitely be more, and the oversubscription will be higher; second, the opening price may be higher, after all, it's a highly controlled currency #国际油价下跌 #ALPHA🔥

$NIGHT Yesterday and the day before finally saw significant volume, indicating a rise in both price and volume, which shows that buying interest has entered the market.

Moreover, as everyone can see in Chart 3, whenever NIGHT reaches a high point, there is a wave of selling that increases the trading volume, but both times the price was stabilized. This indicates that at this price level, there are not many sellers of NIGHT and short sellers left. It should continue to attract buying interest.

From the 4-hour chart perspective, the price has not surged to 0.05 in the past two days before dropping again, likely due to new selling pressure above 0.05. Therefore, in this situation of seeking direction amidst fluctuations, I believe there are basically two possibilities for this week's trend: large holders stabilizing their sales at this position, allowing the current buyers to take over; or large holders quickly pushing the price up before crashing it down, not giving other sellers and short positions too much opportunity to react. #night @MidnightNetwork $NIGHT

NIGHT sold too early, surprisingly at a low point.

The privacy track has launched a collective counterattack, and the pressure of $NIGHT is increasing, not sure if Midnight can win against everyone or be overwhelmed by competing products:

1. Competing product Zcash's shielded pool has reached a new high of $ZEC , exceeding 5.15 million coins, and just a few days ago it surged by 21% in a single day;

2. Ethereum's leading privacy project Railgun has also surpassed new highs in daily transactions, and the Ethereum Foundation has integrated it into the Kohaku privacy wallet toolkit, giving it an official identity.

3. Privacy player Paxos has collaborated with Aleo to launch the stablecoin USAD, which is the industry's first compliant stablecoin that can achieve end-to-end encrypted wallet addresses and transaction amounts. Companies are already using it for payroll.

Of course, our Midnight is not weak either; once the mainnet went live, it secured the global payment giant MoneyGram, bringing it on board as one of the first federal node operators. This indicates that NIGHT's "compliant privacy" has truly gained recognition from traditional financial giants.

Next, it will be a fierce competition in the privacy track, waiting for the results #night @MidnightNetwork $NIGHT