Latest market outlook: Overall bearish, short-term rebound expected.

1. The overall direction remains bearish, with the Fear and Greed Index, global inflation, and low expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. These major trends have not changed, so I will continue to patiently wait for lower levels.

2. The logic for the short-term (2-3 weeks) market is very simple: continue to fight and it will drop, ceasefire and it will rise. I detailed the underlying logic in last week's article.

3. Will fighting continue? It feels like both sides want to talk now, and they are making some moves at the negotiating table to gain leverage, because while they are aggressive in words, the actual impact of their actions is currently minimal. Given that both sides want to talk, I don't think the situation will escalate, and it may even end in 2-3 weeks, at which point there could be a rebound.