0x威登君

🔥 Institutional reversal: Goldman Sachs calls "BTC has bottomed out", but history has seen 30% drops
Goldman Sachs claims that Bitcoin may have bottomed and rebounded, but historical records contradict this:
After Goldman Sachs called the "bottom" in 2022, BTC fell another 30%
Current BTC 66,600 dollars, down for 6 consecutive months
10-year U.S. Treasury yield 4.44%, no interest rate cuts, no ceasefire
The truth: Institutional "bottom signals" are often released after accumulation is complete
To verify the bottom: Exchange inflow + ETF fund flow, not headlines

🚨 Epic disaster: NAKA evaporated 99.34%, 100,000 turned into 600
Bitcoin treasury company Satoshi Nakamoto (NAKA):

🔥 Headline: Trump announces, the United States aims to become a superpower in Bitcoin
Trump publicly stated at the Future Investment Initiative Conference: The United States will become the undisputed superpower in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, stating that Bitcoin is 'very strong.'
National strategic endorsement, the crypto industry welcomes the strongest policy benefits, but in the short term still suppressed by macro factors, the positive effects are delayed.

⚠️ Core alert: BTC market share has crashed to 58.29% (a new low in 6 months)
Data: BTC market share has plummeted to 58.29%, the lowest since September 2025.
Key logic:

🔴Core deep analysis｜90% of retail investors do not understand the capital rotation signals
Currently, BTC's total market capitalization accounts for 67%, ETH only 13%, hiding key cyclical logic:
Historically, before the altcoin boom starts, BTC's market share often peaks, and the sequence of funds is: BTC→ ETH→ all altcoins.
Currently, ETH has not taken over BTC's profits; investors either hold onto BTC or exit to cash / gold.
This is not a healthy bull market structure; it leans more towards the end of the cycle with divergence: Bitcoin is strong, altcoins are declining.
✅Practical strategy: patiently wait for ETH's dominance rate to recover; before that, heavy buying of altcoins is strictly prohibited.

1/ Bitcoin is still difficult to say it has bottomed. On-chain indicators, volatility structure, and capital inflows have not shown consistent and clear bottoming signals, so blindly bottom-fishing still requires caution.
2/ The number of large holders of Chainlink has reached a new high, with 25,420 wallets currently holding at least 1,000 tokens, the highest since the beginning of the month. Since the start of the month, it has been fluctuating in the $9–10 range, with large wallets continuously returning, waiting for a breakout signal.
3/ Tom Lee's Bitmine has aggressively bought $252 million in 48 hours, directly driving up Ethereum prices, with institutions continuously increasing their allocation to ETH.

Global asset management giant Franklin Templeton, managing $1.6 trillion, will jointly launch a tokenized ETF with $Ondo.
This product provides users with 24/7 trading access through a crypto wallet and will be launched first in Europe, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America. The progress of the launch in the US market depends on regulatory clarity.
This is not just an ordinary product launch, but a milestone endorsement of the crypto sector by traditional top asset management, with 3 core impacts:
1.6 trillion dollars in size means that tokenized assets have officially moved from being a 'niche experiment' to a mainstream allocation pool in global asset management, completely opening up the ceiling of the sector;

1/ In 60 minutes, the US stock market evaporated $596 billion.
Market sentiment has rapidly weakened, and risk assets are under significant short-term pressure.

2/ According to (The Wall Street Journal), the New York Stock Exchange is collaborating with Securitize to build a tokenized securities platform.
Traditional top exchanges are getting involved, and tokenized securities are entering the implementation stage.
3/ Current market heat top ten coins: BTC, ETH, SOL, STRK, KAT, XRP, TAO, HYPE, RIVER, PAXG.
Capital enthusiasm is dispersed, with significant characteristics of sector rotation.
4/ SEC enforcement chief Margaret Ryan resigned due to disagreements related to the Trump case, facing opposition from the SEC chairman and Republican officials regarding the investigations into Sun Yuchen and Musk.

1/ The US stock market opened with new funds exceeding $900 billion
Market liquidity is ample, providing capital support for risk assets.

2/ Excess liquidity drives a surge in oil trading, with JPMorgan data showing daily trading volume of perpetual oil futures reaching $1.7 billion
Investor demand for all-weather commodity trading is rising, and on-chain derivatives continue to expand.

3/ Trump announced a 5-day pause on airstrikes against Iran, stating that talks between both sides have been productive, delaying strike plans to continue negotiations. After the news was released, BTC and ETH surged significantly, with BTC returning to $71,000
Geopolitical risks are cooling, and market risk appetite is quickly recovering.

1/ VanEck view: $BTC is a scarce and secure store of value, but PoW transaction speeds are slow; Ethereum PoS supports fast smart contracts, DeFi, and decentralized applications.
The positioning of the two major public chains is clear, with long-term value focusing on different aspects.
2/ Musk states that SpaceX will build cities on the Moon and Mars and send spacecraft to other star systems.
The long-term technology narrative continues to advance, affecting future value patterns.
3/ Trump threatens: If Iran does not fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, it will strike Iranian power plants; after the news, $BTC fell below 69000 USD.

1/ The spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of 52.1 million USD, marking three consecutive days of outflows. However, weekly funds still saw an inflow of 95 million USD, with a net inflow of 1.43 billion USD in March, ending four consecutive months of outflows.
Short-term funds have fluctuated, but the trend for long-term funds remains positive.

2/ Swap market data indicates that with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates and inflation and oil prices remaining high, the probability of a rate cut in 2026 is 0%.
The macro interest rate environment continues to be tight, and market expectations have been repriced.

3/ A sleeping whale holding 2100 BTC has become active again after 14 years. This batch of Bitcoin was purchased in 2012 at a cost of 136,000 USD, and is currently worth over 14.7 million USD. The movements of long-term holders are worth paying attention to, as historical stakes are beginning to change.

1/ Bitcoin ETF trading volume hits a record high, accounting for the top four trading days in history over the past 4 weeks.
March 2: 31.6 billion USD
February 23: 23.2 billion USD
March 18: 21.4 billion USD
March 19: 21.1 billion USD
BTC ETF market activity remains at historically high levels.
ETF flow (March 19): SOL spot ETF net inflow, BTC and ETH spot ETF net outflow.
BTC: -90.19 million USD
ETH: -131.2 million USD
SOL: 767.01K USD
XRP: 0 USD
Funds are experiencing short-term rotation, with slight outflow of mainstream varieties.
2/ On the Hyperliquid platform, trading volume for oil, gold, and silver has surpassed that of cryptocurrencies. HIP‑3 holdings exceed 1.5 billion USD, setting a new historical high.

1/ DeFi TVL has surpassed $100 billion for the first time since early February (DefiLlama data).
The DeFi ecosystem is steadily recovering, with long-term value continuing to accumulate.
2/ Vitalik Buterin stated that after the full deployment of lean Ethereum, ETH will become the only main chain that simultaneously possesses optimal synchronous security and strong economic finality.
Ethereum's underlying technology continues to iterate, further solidifying its core competitiveness.
3/ The U.S. SEC states that most crypto assets are not securities, including staking, airdrops, and Bitcoin mining, providing new regulatory clarity.
Regulatory boundaries are gradually becoming clearer, which is beneficial for the long-term compliant development of the industry.

1/ Within 24 hours, the market has closed $302.5 million in short positions.
Short-term short selling pressure has eased, and market sentiment leans towards recovery.

2/ In the BTC options market, there is a large negative gamma area around the $75,000 strike price.
Market makers are structurally shorting call options at this price level; as spot prices approach this level, the flow of hedging funds may amplify upward potential, and key price fluctuations need attention.
3/ This round of conflict in the Middle East is different from previous wars; the Strait of Hormuz is effectively nearing a closure state.
About 20% of global oil supply is disrupted, with Brent crude rising to $119.5 per barrel. Iran mentioned that oil prices could reach $200, and the U.S. is also considering special deployments. The geopolitical situation has far-reaching effects, and the market has not fully priced this in; continued observation is necessary.

1/ 📊 Bitcoin is decoupling from the S&P 500 index.
Market data shows that Bitcoin has broken its usual correlation with stocks. Over the past approximately 5 weeks, under geopolitical and macro pressures, the S&P 500 has fallen about 2.2%, while Bitcoin has risen about 2.4%. Santiment believes that during a crisis, Bitcoin behaves more like a non-sovereign hedge rather than a tech stock.
BTC has decoupled from the U.S. stock market, and its safe-haven value is beginning to be realized, highlighting its independent market characteristics.
2/ 15 days since the outbreak of the US-Iran war, various asset trends have diverged.
S&P 500: -3.85% | Nasdaq: -3% | Gold: -5.5% | Silver: -13.22%; Bitcoin: +7.75%, with the cryptocurrency market capitalization increasing by $240 billion.

1/ On-chain data shows that Bitcoin's share on exchanges has dropped to its lowest level since November 2017. Over the past eight years, both the cryptocurrency industry and the global macro environment have undergone significant changes, and the continuous outflow of chips from exchanges itself is a signal that the consensus for long-term holding of coins is strengthening.

2/ BlackRock stated that 90% of the investors in its Bitcoin ETF are long-term holders who focus on fundamentals. Even in a bear market environment, the ETF continues to see net inflows, as institutional long-term capital is steadily accumulating.
3/ Breaking: The United States launches a historic bombing campaign against Iran, with Trump announcing large-scale military strikes on Hark Island, rapidly escalating the situation. The US has also issued an ultimatum, stating that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed, it will completely destroy Iran's oil infrastructure.

1/ BlackRock's Ethereum ETF debut is impressive
BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHB) saw trading volume exceed $15.5 million on its first day, with assets surpassing $100 million. This performance is considered robust for a newly issued ETF, reflecting the growing institutional recognition of the ETH staking sector.

2/ The suspense of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is resolved
Only 6 days remain until the FOMC meeting. FedWatch data shows that traders are betting on a 99.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates. February's CPI year-on-year at 2.4% meets expectations, and signs of economic stagflation have become clearer, making short-term interest rate cuts completely unlikely.

1/ Market positions: The number of BTC short positions is about twice that of long positions.
The short position in the contract market remains high, and the short-term market sentiment is bearish. The game between bulls and bears is still fierce, making it difficult to quickly break the oscillating pattern.
2/ Major regulatory landing! The SEC and CFTC end the regulatory tug-of-war.
The two institutions have officially signed a memorandum of understanding to carry out comprehensive cooperation on cryptocurrency regulation and digital asset products, completely resolving the previous conflict between the SEC's definition of securities and the CFTC's definition of commodities.
The memorandum clearly outlines the details of regular consultations between both parties, real-time data sharing, joint supervision, establishing a dedicated framework, collaborative law enforcement, etc. Coupled with the approval of the congressional cryptocurrency bill, the regulatory uncertainty that institutions feared has been completely eliminated, and trillions of dollars in waiting funds have found an entry channel, marking a new stage in the compliance of the cryptocurrency industry.

1/ AAVE oracle failure causes 26 million dollar erroneous liquidation
Aave's pricing oracle encountered an exchange rate reporting error, leading to unfair liquidation of 34 accounts' wstETH positions, involving approximately 26 million dollars. The official statement indicated that affected users will receive full compensation, which also serves as a warning for risk control in the DeFi sector.$AAVE
2/ Hayes: The Federal Reserve will not increase its position by 1 dollar in BTC before printing money.
Crypto veteran Hayes has made it clear that at this stage he will not be positioning in Bitcoin, the core logic being that he will wait for the Federal Reserve to officially start printing money before entering the market, using liquidity easing as the only entry metric.

1/ WTI crude oil has surged directly above $100, hitting a new high since 2022. This increase is completely driven by geopolitical conflicts and concerns over energy supply, and subsequent inflationary pressures will only grow.
2/🗞️🇪🇺 The recently released report from the European Central Bank is quite insightful, predicting that by 2030, the market value of stablecoins could reach $4 trillion, with a high probability that dollar-pegged stablecoins will dominate. This is interesting because it means that U.S. monetary policy will indirectly affect the Eurozone, and the influence of on-chain finance has already permeated traditional monetary policy levels.

1/ The Pentagon calculated that the U.S.-Iran war has burned through $6 billion just one week in, while America's debt has soared to $38.8 trillion. It's outrageous to think about. On one hand, ordinary people are worried about buying groceries and paying rent, while on the other hand, the government is using taxpayers' money to wage war. This distorted fiscal situation will inevitably spill over into global financial markets, and cryptocurrency cannot escape it.
2/🚨 Breaking news! The U.S. Embassy in Norway has been bombed. Norwegian police said the explosion occurred around 1 AM on Sunday at the consulate entrance. Fortunately, there was only minor damage, and no one was injured. But this is definitely not a trivial matter; it clearly signals an escalation in geopolitical risks, and everyone must keep a close eye on the situation and not let their guard down.

1/ Pantera's founder bluntly stated that artificial intelligence will inevitably need cryptocurrency in the future. The logic behind this connection is quite clear—after the large-scale application of AI, the demand for crypto will only continue to grow, and there's no need to panic about the long-term narrative.
2/ Morgan Stanley is fully positioning itself in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. As a top investment bank, such actions are not taken lightly; it is essentially using real money to endorse the long-term value of crypto assets, and it's highly likely that more institutions will follow suit.
3/ Interestingly, AI is now 'snatching' venture capital from crypto, with investors flocking to AI startups that can monetize faster. Crypto startups raised only $135 million in the first week of March, and fundraising has clearly slowed down. However, there's no need to worry; core assets remain unaffected, and institutions are still positioning themselves; it's just that short-term sentiment has been diverted.