Mohamed A. El-Erian Re-poster

Welcome to my latest weekly overview of international markets and the broader global economy. If you are interested in diving into the comprehensive analysis, please feel free to check out the complete articles through the direct addresses provided below.

You can read the full Substack publication here:
https://mohamedelerian.substack.com/publish/posts/detail/192498506?referrer=%2Fpublish%2Fposts%2Fpublished

The entire write-up is also available on LinkedIn at the following destination:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-look-global-economy-markets-mohamed-el-erian-gijee

#economy #markets

How much you pay to fill your vehicle depends significantly on your exact location. Based on recent charts provided by AAA, there are substantial regional disparities regarding the average cost of gas (petrol) throughout the US. At present, the nationwide baseline for regular fuel rests at $3.98. However, motorists in Oklahoma are spending just below $3.30, whereas drivers in California face average prices of nearly $6. When it comes to managing your fuel tank, geography plays a major role.

#economy #markets #gaspricehike #middleastwar @AAA_Travel

Building on my earlier posts regarding the pressures traditional portfolio diversification has faced this month, I wanted to share a relevant piece from the Wall Street Journal. The article highlights that investors suffering from stock declines are finding almost no refuge in the bond market. It explains that a combination of inflation concerns and forced selling has driven a significant surge in Treasury yields. #economy #markets #investing #investors @WSJ

The financial and economic impacts of the continuously expanding Middle East War are becoming much more evident across the globe. We are currently experiencing stagflationary winds, a correction in the S&P, and the largest monthly loss for the classic 60/40 investment portfolio since 2022. A heavy influx of information is arriving this week, which will allow us to measure the level of resilience remaining in our system. Volatility, dispersion, and fragmentation were the three themes projected for this year, and they have now emerged as active forces completely transforming the global economy and markets. You can access my latest Weekly Look at the Global Economy and Markets through the links provided below.

https://t.co/LTKzit0mFB
https://t.co/LGhYH00KIP
#economy #markets

We are currently enjoying a wonderful family excursion to the baseball stadium. Everyone is here to enthusiastically cheer for the Mets! I do have to acknowledge, however, that the temperature outside is absolutely freezing. #family @Mets #lgm

For those seeking valuable perspectives, I highly recommend exploring this essential commentary from Nobel Laureate Michael Spence. His article, titled The Global Economy's Many Chokepoints, provides a thoughtful examination of the subject. You can access the complete text via the following link.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/addressing-single-points-of-failure-across-the-global-economy-by-michael-spence-2026-03

#economy #markets #resilience #supplychains @ProSyn @mikespence

When exploring the financial and economic consequences of the Middle East War, a rather concerning near-term possibility emerges for global markets and the overall economy. We might see a situation where the US simply lacks the leverage to dictate the actions of the main nations involved in the conflict, namely Israel and Iran. If this lack of influence becomes a reality, the number of possible final outcomes for the situation expands dramatically. Furthermore, the journey toward almost any of these eventual conclusions would be characterized by significant instability.

#economy #markets #middleeastwar

Building on my previous thoughts regarding the obstacles investors encounter when trying to minimize portfolio risks, I wanted to draw your attention to a chart from a recent FT piece. The article discusses how an Iran shock is causing both stocks and bonds to drop simultaneously, essentially leaving market participants with nowhere to hide. Furthermore, the report highlights that the standard 60-40 allocation of global equities and fixed income is currently on track to record its poorest monthly performance since the year 2022.

#economy #markets #investing #investors @FT

Macroeconomic indicators are now clearly displaying the broader financial consequences resulting from the Middle East War. A prime example is Spain, where the annual headline inflation rate experienced a jump of an entire percentage point over the course of a single month. Specifically, inflation climbed from 2.3% in February up to 3.3% in March. As demonstrated by the El Pais chart below, this recent surge represents the highest level recorded in almost two years. Looking ahead, the Spanish central bank has issued a caution regarding future economic trends, noting that if the War persists, inflation could potentially escalate to almost 6%.

#economy #markets #inflation #middleeastwar #spain

The trading week concluded on a rather difficult note for US stock and bond markets alike. This latest downturn has further aggravated what was already a challenging month. Consequently, the traditional 60/40 diversified portfolio is currently enduring its most severe monthly decline since 2022.

#economy #markets #bonds #stocks #investing #investors

I am eagerly anticipating the upcoming discussion I will be sharing alongside @larry_kudlow and @KennyPolcari.

Taking a look at the day's various significant market shifts, you will find that WTI oil is currently exchanging hands near the $100 per barrel level.

#economy #matkets #oil #energy

With so much news breaking this week, it’s perhaps not a surprise this has flown under the radar:
The yen has depreciated to an economically and politically sensitive level.
#economy #markets #yen #japan #fx #currency

United States data is currently starting to reveal the adverse financial impacts stemming from the war. A clear example is the UMich survey, which shows that anticipated inflation for the upcoming year has surged to 3.8% from a previous 3.4%. This movement represents the sharpest rise recorded since April 2025.

When examining broader economic activity, the overall outlook is notably softer. The gauge tracking current conditions has decreased to 55.8, while forecasts for future conditions have dropped to a four-month low.

Given the persistent burdens of high interest rates and pricing pressures, coupled with increasing public anxiety regarding jobs and growth, there is a strong likelihood that the upcoming sentiment survey will reflect further deterioration across all three of these metrics.

#economy #markets #middleeastwar #inflation #growth

You’ve heard me argue that when it comes to the economic and financial fallout of the war, tipping points matter as much, if not more than simply the conflict’s duration.
We have already seen the non-linear effects of the shift from oil supply disruptions to longer-term structural damage to energy infrastructure.
The next tipping point for some economies would be the transition from high prices to physical shortages as well (excluding the US—more on that to follow).
While currently centered on Asia, this concern could expand, as illustrated by this Guardian headline regarding the UK.
#economy #markets #middleeastwar #energy @guardian

A recent update provided by CNBC sheds light on the current expectations of the market regarding a potential rate hike from the Federal Reserve. It goes without saying that this marks a complete 180-degree turnaround from the financial dialogue observed throughout the last several months and quarters. During that previous period, the primary focus was centered entirely on exactly when the Fed might reduce rates and the overall magnitude of those cuts. Moreover, this notable shift in perspective is arriving during a time characterized by an endogenous tightening of liquidity conditions.

#economy #markets #federalreserve

Building on previous updates regarding this crucial space for politics, finance, and the broader economy, the steep decline across the worldwide bond market continues with no indication of easing. The UK is still positioned right at the heart of this widespread selloff, where the 10-year yield has climbed sharply to reach 5.07%.

#economy #markets #bonds #middleeastwar

A recent piece from the Financial Times points out that the bedrock of our global financial framework is under increasing pressure. Over the last few weeks, the ability to smoothly execute trades within the $30tn US Treasury market has noticeably worsened. As the most vital and expansive financial arena worldwide, this market is experiencing intense bond volatility directly triggered by the ongoing unrest in the Middle East. It is highly important to keep in mind that experiencing broad shifts in yields is one matter, but encountering fundamental difficulties in how the market actually operates is a completely different scenario.

#economy #markets #bonds #middleeastwar @FT

I recently took some time to explore the potential financial and economic impacts of the next stage of the Middle East War. By applying the principles of Game Theory to this thought exercise, I found that the majority of potential outcomes tend to break down over two specific hurdles.

The first obstacle involves the perspectives of the three involved nations: the US, Iran, and Israel. While all three of these warring parties currently consider themselves to be on the winning side, the US stands alone as the only participant that is both willing and capable of formally declaring a victory. The second major hurdle is that spotting a practical way to force a resolution without relying on military action is getting harder by the day.

At the root of these roadblocks are a few key realities. The ultimate goals of the three parties are widely scattered, which turns this situation into a naturally non-cooperative game. On top of that, despite being the strongest participant, the US is currently unable to dictate the final results for the other two nations.

#economy #markets #gamethoery #middleeastwar

Make sure to watch the UK bond market closely tomorrow. This follows a substantial selloff this afternoon that drove yields sharply higher amid highly erratic and disorganized trading conditions.

#economy #Markets #uk #bonds #investing #investors