You’ve heard me argue that when it comes to the economic and financial fallout of the war, tipping points matter as much, if not more than simply the conflict’s duration.

We have already seen the non-linear effects of the shift from oil supply disruptions to longer-term structural damage to energy infrastructure.

The next tipping point for some economies would be the transition from high prices to physical shortages as well (excluding the US—more on that to follow).

While currently centered on Asia, this concern could expand, as illustrated by this Guardian headline regarding the UK.

#economy #markets #middleeastwar #energy @guardian