张烁峰的剧本日记

Gendan Consulting:

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#加密市场观察

XAU 黄金行情分析 2026.03.30

黄金4100起的上涨是一个反弹，它针对的是图2中蓝色段或是黑色段下跌，目前我们先按照蓝色段处理的同时保留其反弹级别扩大的可能性。

目前正在运行的行情参考图1的1小时K线图，这里运行的是针对4100-4603这段上涨的回调，该回调有红蓝两种可能：

红色：该回调是一个收敛形态，后续持续收窄震幅，抬高低点，不再跌破4350直接开启下一波上涨。

蓝色：该回调是一个正常的三段式回调，在图示红色区间4260/4206一线获得支撑后完成回调，开启下一段同级别的上涨。

操作上近几天就多观察黄金的调整形态，跌不动就继续做多。下破4350只要在图示两个区间止跌也尝试做多。未破4100前就先保持这么一个思路。$XAU

2026.03.28

I clearly stated in the video on 3.22 that gold would open lower on Monday, then rebound, and then gold would rise from 4100 to 4600. After failing to break through 4603, I pointed out that the first wave of the rise had ended, and then gold fell to 4350. Although gold rebounded to 4555 last night, I still maintain the viewpoint shown in Figure 2 as long as it does not break through 4603.

Oh, by the way, I placed a short position in gold at 4553 last night. You can refer to the message time to compare with the candlestick to confirm its authenticity.

Even if the market opens high on Monday and even breaks through 4603, I have already minimized the risk through excellent position management & trading strategy. If the market develops according to my expected trend, I believe this will be another legendary trade. $XAU
#金价连续第十天下跌

Today I received a private message from a fan, which made me feel a lot.

When I first entered the circle, my teacher once told me: trading is an industry with a low entry threshold and high cognition. Anyone can do it, but truly doing well is very difficult.

In 2018 and 2019, if it weren't for my family providing me with two funds after I blew my account several times, my trading career would probably have ended long ago.

So here, I also want to sincerely advise everyone: if you have no margin for error in your life, and every penny is crucial, please stay away from the cryptocurrency circle as soon as possible. The enormous psychological pressure is almost fatal for someone who wants to do trading well in the long term.

I hope we can all get better and cheer each other on. #BTC行情 $BTC
$ETH

Ethereum Market Analysis 2026.03.27

ETH has basically captured the major waves since February. New friends can review the video referenced in this post for verification. I just took profits from most of the short positions established this week, and now I'm fully preparing for the turning point of the market.

The rebound from ETH starting at 1748 has entered its final phase. After the rebound ends, a new decline will follow. Based on the current structure of ETH, I have illustrated two possible paths for the subsequent market:

Red Route: ETH may stop falling and reverse in the next two days. Under this scenario, the weekly K chart for the week of April 6 may become the endpoint of the rebound from 1748, after which a new decline will occur.

Blue Route: If there are no signs of stopping the decline or weak rebounds in the remaining days of March, then 2386 may serve as the high point of the rebound, and no higher points than this position will appear. The market turning point will occur in the week of April 6, marking the start of ETH's accelerated decline.

In any case, we must understand that ETH is still in a downtrend, which is a trend I have repeatedly emphasized to everyone recently. After the rebound ends, a new decline will follow, and 1748 cannot serve as a bottom. #ETH走势分析 $ETH

The principles shared in yesterday's tweet, I wonder how many people still remember?

How many dared to short just before the plunge?

Any major market movement evolves from smaller movements; when you see an opportunity in a small timeframe, go for it boldly. If it develops into a larger movement, that would be ideal; if not, treating it as a short-term trade can also yield profits, right? Be flexible; trading is not that complicated. #ETH走势分析

Analysis of Silver Market 2026.03.27

Do you remember on January 3rd and January 8th when friends asked me about my views on silver? At that time, the price of silver was at 70. I told him that the upward trend of silver was about to start, expecting it to reach 100+

Later, I also reminded friends in the group who had silver to sell after reaching 100+. Time flies, and in the blink of an eye, two months have passed, and silver has returned to the place where the dream began.

I have always advised everyone not to treat silver as a primary trading target, because its biggest use is industrial, and it has almost no financial attributes. It is purely that in the past two years, some people have speculated and attracted everyone's attention, and then a group of people got stuck, with no choice but to keep playing.

Currently, silver is experiencing a rebound against the illustrated black segment's decline, with two possible scenarios illustrated:

Red: The rebound has ended, with 74.4 as the endpoint of the rebound. Silver will subsequently drop below 60.69, and after finding the endpoint of the decline, it will undergo a wave of the same level rebound.

Blue: 60.69-74.4 is just the first segment of the rebound for silver. There will be a second wave next week, and the endpoint of the rebound will be slightly higher than 74.4, but it will not change the nature of it being just a rebound. After the rebound ends, silver will continue to decline until it finds the endpoint of the decline.

The situation of silver is somewhat more complicated than that of gold, because it sometimes does not quite conform to market rules. There is always an invisible big hand behind it 🤣
#金价连续第十天下跌 $XAG

Gold Market Analysis 2026.03.27

Last Sunday’s video was viewed by 130,000 people, and just by looking at the video cover, you should understand my viewpoint—open low on Monday and then rise. Gold rebounded from 4100 to 4603, I was right; yesterday I said the first wave of rebound ended, very clearly and without dispute. I was right again.

What’s next? As shown in the figure—pullback/a new low, then continue to rise. If you kept up with my rhythm, you wouldn’t be struggling with whether there will be another low point, because yesterday you already cleared your position and are now waiting for the buying point to appear in mid to early April, at which point you can jump in and make a big profit!

Whether there will be another low point has nothing to do with future profitability, because in a wave of determined upward trends, no matter where you enter, you will ultimately make a profit; it’s just a matter of how much you earn. The only thing you need to consider is whether you can keep up with the rhythm.

Compared to BE, gold is simply like a child. Why? Because the liquidity in this market is very good, there’s no need to profit through despicable manipulation tactics. Key levels break when they break, and they don’t when they don’t, while BE often makes false breakouts/fake breakdowns at key levels and then directly runs in the opposite direction.

By the way, as of now, gold trading has contributed 60% of my profits this month $XAU
#金价连续第十天下跌

Bitcoin Market Analysis 2026.03.27

Since I was able to catch the rebound starting point on February 6, I believe I can also catch the endpoint of this rebound starting from 60,000, which has been running for 50 days. I think BTC will end the rebound and start a new downward trend before April 6.

The video from Wednesday has already been viewed by many people; for nearly ten minutes, I shared my trading ideas without reservation. As I said, how Old Zhang sees it is not important; how to act is more important.

Yesterday evening, BTC showed a tendency to follow the blue route, so I notified to increase the short position at the location shown in Figure 1, and accurately predicted the short-term downward endpoint of 68,000. This morning, I took profit on the chasing short position because BTC did not drop below 67,400 last night, so the possibility of the red route cannot be ruled out.

Some friends say my analysis of gold and silver is much clearer than my analysis of BTC and ETH; I actually feel the same way. 🤣 Compared to gold and silver, the analysis and operational difficulty of BE is more than two levels higher, but for an experienced trader, any difficulty is a paper tiger! Just go for it.

In summary, the subsequent trading idea is this: after breaking below the position shown in Figure 2, look for a rebound to short; if it continues to rise until the end of this month or early April, then look for signs of stopping the rise on the one-hour, four-hour, and daily charts to short. The overall trend is down, very simple. $BTC
#BTC走势分析

NDX Market Analysis 2026.03.26

The Nasdaq is currently undergoing an adjustment for the rise from 16543 to 26182. This level of adjustment is not significant for the Nasdaq, and the adjustment endpoint may be reached as early as mid-year. After the adjustment, a new rise is expected, so starting to invest in QQQ and VOO from mid-2026 is not an issue.

I will follow up on the Nasdaq later; if the level of adjustment expands, it may actually present opportunities for us. As long as the Nasdaq experiences deep corrections over the next 20 years, it will provide opportunities.

Before the sun never sets on the empire goes online, the maritime traders dominated global maritime and trade hegemony for 125 years. I think you should understand what I mean.

Ethereum 2026.03.26

On February 5th, it was noted that February 6th is a critical turning point, which may become a phase bottom. After a decisive entry on February 6th when it dropped to 1748, subsequent operations are indicated by arrows in Figure 1, all supported by the views at that time. How well it was done is for everyone to judge. Currently, ETH has reached a turning point again; are you in the car or under the car for the next trend?

Tonight, we will observe whether ETH will break below 2023 and whether the daily line will close below that position tomorrow morning. If both conditions are met, then 2386 may serve as the rebound endpoint, and ETH has entered a new round of downward trend.

If ETH does not drop below 2023 in the next two days, or if it dips down but the daily line closes with a long lower shadow, we could see a strong upward break above 2200 this week, indicating that there is still hope for the red line. The maximum time limit for the rebound starting from 1748 should not exceed April 6, 2026; if it exceeds that time without making a new high, we can also confirm the end of the rebound.

The most frequently asked question in the comments section is, "Brother Zhang, do you think ETH/BTC can break through/break below XXXX?" Here I want to say that I feel/anyone's feeling whether it can break through is useless, and I do not rely on feelings to make trades.

For those focused on whether there are still highs, it's just a dilemma: wanting to short but fearing there are still highs, not shorting but fearing missing out on the trend. In fact, accepting being trapped and accepting missing out is always a single-choice question. If you are afraid of missing out, find structure on the left side and slowly build your position, keeping the position small; if you are afraid of being trapped, wait for the right side to be fully confirmed before finding an entry point. The importance of position management, risk management, and mindset management always ranks ahead of technical analysis & trend judgment; experienced traders should understand what I mean.

Recently, the most talked about is that the rebound has entered its final stage. Therefore, whether there are new highs or not, we must adhere to one principle—before April 6, 2026, it is best to hold a short position. When mid to late April comes, friends who keep up with the rhythm will look back at this post and thank me. $ETH
#ETH走势分析

The highest point for profit-taking yesterday was indicated in the post. This morning, after exiting the position, there was also a special reminder in the silver update. All operational ideas have been validated by past posts to avoid hindsight bias 🙅🏻‍♂️

Since I was able to determine the entire large-scale downward structure, timing, and position on March 1st, and I indicated last Sunday that there would be a rebound after a low opening on Monday, resulting in a profit of over 300+ from the first rebound, I also believe I can capture the second rebound. It just needs some time for verification, doesn't it? #黄金创43年来最大单周跌幅 $XAU

Silver Market Analysis 2026.03.26

The rebound of silver is likely to end, and even if there are peaks higher than 74.4, they are likely just spikes to seize liquidity.

Just now, when gold broke below 4486, I executed a liquidation operation. Subsequently, I will observe the specific structure of gold and silver in mid to early April to find entry points for the next wave of rebound. #黄金创43年来最大单周跌幅 $XAG

As time goes by, you'll find that those who can stay in the game for a long time are usually not the ones who operate the most aggressively, but those who understand how to control the pace better.

Many people enter this market thinking that making money relies on indicators, news, or luck. It often takes time to realize that these are not usually what determines the results.

Many have had similar experiences: the account once showed decent profits, but one emotional trade quickly wiped out all previous gains. The accumulation of capital takes time, but a single misjudgment can make previous achievements disappear.

The importance of the principal is something many people gradually realize after experiencing several significant fluctuations. Once capital is noticeably consumed, it becomes difficult to recover. Therefore, in trading, controlling risk is usually more important than pursuing higher returns.

Many losses are not actually caused by the market itself, but by operations driven by emotions. People usually compare prices and quality when buying an ordinary product, but in trading, decisions can be made in a very short time. After a series of losses, emotions can more easily influence judgment, and the frequency of trades may increase.

Some people who can consistently participate in the market usually plan their pace in advance. Before entering the market, they have already set several key positions: if the market does not meet expectations, in which area to exit; if the trend develops favorably, in which ranges to gradually lock in some profits. This approach is not about predicting the market but about establishing clear boundaries for operations.

This market does not offer opportunities every day. Often, it is more important to wait than to act frequently. Missing a market movement does not have a significant impact, but continuous impulsive operations can lead to noticeable fluctuations in the account.

There was once a friend who experienced a fairly difficult phase when he first entered the market. The initial capital saw a significant drawdown in a short time. Later, he started to adjust his approach, reducing the number of trades and strictly controlling risk for each one. The speed of account recovery was not fast, but the overall state gradually stabilized.

Years later, looking back, he found that experience to be very important. Because it was after that period that he gradually formed his own rhythm and placed greater emphasis on position control and risk management.

$ZEC Market Analysis 2026.03.26

ZEC remains in a downtrend, and since March 22, it has been experiencing a minor rebound. It is expected that ZEC will end this rebound and continue to decline by the end of March or early April.

The red and blue lines shown in the diagram only differ at a minor level. If it continues to decline sideways until the end of the month, it will basically confirm the blue line path. A further breakout above 247.7 would indicate the red line path. Even if it follows the red line path, it will not change ZEC's downtrend.

Therefore, I believe we will have a good shorting opportunity for ZEC in the near future, with a considerable decline and a favorable risk-reward ratio.
#币安人生

Bitcoin Market Analysis 2026.03.26

Since the signal of 60,000 being a local low, we will run a sharp rebound which has lasted for 47 days. Currently, we are at the end of the rebound, and after the rebound ends, there will be a new decline. A BTC starting with 5 is not far from us.

In an ideal scenario, the decline starting from 76,000 is considered a correction, and after the correction ends, it will go up again. The rebound starting from 60,000 will end around late March to early April and then start to decline.

However, everyone needs to pay attention to a problem—BTC always has a lot of false moves before every major market starts. This includes, but is not limited to, deep corrections that make people think there are no highs left and then drop directly, rushing close to 76,000 without breaking the high and then directly dropping, rushing to 78,000 and 79,000 making people think it won’t drop again, then suddenly crashing...

Which specific situation will occur completely depends on the liquidity situation in the market. The current sluggish movement here is largely due to the accumulation of liquidity.

There are many possibilities at a smaller scale, but the larger trend is certain. At this critical juncture, we only need to remember one thing, which is that we are currently at the end of the rebound, and after the rebound ends, there will be a new decline. Then leverage the advantages of Gann theory—focusing on time. By the end of this month or early April, regardless of whether we break 76, I will look for opportunities to short. This trend is one of the few certain markets in the first half of this year.
#比特币预测 $BTC

Gold Market Analysis 2025.03.26

Yesterday, I mentioned that after gold hit bottom on Monday, it was in a rebound phase, and subsequently its highest increase reached over 12%. How should we view it now? What actions should be taken next?

I believe the first wave of the rebound will end in the next couple of days. The height of this first wave will determine the upper limit of the entire rebound. If it can break and stabilize above 4602 today, then next week it is highly likely to run into a correction targeting the first wave of the rebound. Under this scenario, gold is unlikely to drop lower in April (see the red path in the second chart).

If it cannot break above 4602 or drops below 4442 this week, gold may follow the blue route—this indicates a small level rebound, with a subsequent deeper correction or even a new low.

Regardless of which path is taken, there will still be good opportunities to go long in early to mid-April. Patience is needed to wait for the first wave of the rebound to conclude, observe the strength of the subsequent corrections, look for signals of a bottom, and enter the market at the right time. I will continue to follow up on the gold market, and everyone should stay tuned.

#金价连续第十天下跌 $XAU