Ethereum 2026.03.26
On February 5th, it was noted that February 6th is a critical turning point, which may become a phase bottom. After a decisive entry on February 6th when it dropped to 1748, subsequent operations are indicated by arrows in Figure 1, all supported by the views at that time. How well it was done is for everyone to judge. Currently, ETH has reached a turning point again; are you in the car or under the car for the next trend?
Tonight, we will observe whether ETH will break below 2023 and whether the daily line will close below that position tomorrow morning. If both conditions are met, then 2386 may serve as the rebound endpoint, and ETH has entered a new round of downward trend.
If ETH does not drop below 2023 in the next two days, or if it dips down but the daily line closes with a long lower shadow, we could see a strong upward break above 2200 this week, indicating that there is still hope for the red line. The maximum time limit for the rebound starting from 1748 should not exceed April 6, 2026; if it exceeds that time without making a new high, we can also confirm the end of the rebound.
The most frequently asked question in the comments section is, "Brother Zhang, do you think ETH/BTC can break through/break below XXXX?" Here I want to say that I feel/anyone's feeling whether it can break through is useless, and I do not rely on feelings to make trades.
For those focused on whether there are still highs, it's just a dilemma: wanting to short but fearing there are still highs, not shorting but fearing missing out on the trend. In fact, accepting being trapped and accepting missing out is always a single-choice question. If you are afraid of missing out, find structure on the left side and slowly build your position, keeping the position small; if you are afraid of being trapped, wait for the right side to be fully confirmed before finding an entry point. The importance of position management, risk management, and mindset management always ranks ahead of technical analysis & trend judgment; experienced traders should understand what I mean.
Recently, the most talked about is that the rebound has entered its final stage. Therefore, whether there are new highs or not, we must adhere to one principle—before April 6, 2026, it is best to hold a short position. When mid to late April comes, friends who keep up with the rhythm will look back at this post and thank me. $ETH
