Luck 柒

K线大作手，
卓越的画线专家，
著名的taco之王

这……还得是大爷

明天要修复修复
最坏的结果止跌了📈
空单该平平该抄底抄底

The recent adjustment in gold and silver has completely shattered the inertia of the perception that "geopolitical conflicts = rising gold prices."

In the past three weeks, gold has fallen by 10-14% and silver by 20-28%. The core driver is not the retreat of risk aversion but the passive reduction in holdings under the fiscal pressure of surplus countries:

Middle Eastern energy-exporting countries have seen their income halved due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, turning from net buyers of gold into potential sellers; coupled with the domestic weak recovery leading to a phase of slowing gold purchase demand and industrial silver demand being dragged down by economic downturn, the prices of gold and silver are under dual pressure from capital flows and economic logic.

The current market has switched to a survival mode that prioritizes "maintaining cash flow," with geopolitical conflicts turning from favorable to unfavorable.

Long-term structural buying is still present, but in the short term, caution is needed for low-level fluctuations and bottoming out, waiting for the easing of the situation in the Middle East, a drop in oil prices, and relief in fiscal pressure from surplus countries before the uptrend can be expected to resume.
$XAU $XAG

The interest rate meeting hasn't started yet, but I've summarized the big benefits for everyone🈳
The expected rate cuts in the future interest rate dot plot have been significantly delayed.
It has all plunged!
Smash it for me!

We also precisely escaped the peak and repositioned 🈳 single.

Gold has exploded! Are you still thinking that gold, as a safe-haven asset, will keep rising based on that logic?
When the market has no money, no matter how you hedge, it won't work.

The current price of gold has clearly overshot expectations:
I lean towards a reasonable range of 43xx—44xx.
If there is no war and no extreme risk events,
In a relatively stable environment, gold should even return to below 3500.
#美联储3月议息会议 # market analysis📈

🌪 Tonight's Federal Reserve meeting
It's another stormy night!
The latest probability data is here:
This week maintaining interest rates ✅ 98.9%
This week raising rates by 25bp ⚠️ 1.1%
This week lowering rates by 25bp ❌ 0%
Probability of rate cut in June 78.1% 🔮
💡 Market Summary
Short-term probability of maintaining interest rates is high, market fluctuations may continue, but a single word from Powell can stir up a storm.
Control risks, stay alert, tonight's market will be exciting!

🔥 What do you think the market will do tonight? Share your strategies below👇
#美联储 #利率决议 #鲍威尔 #行情观察
$BTC $ETH

In just a short week, it surged 300% $AIN
There is indeed something to it
Short-term skyrocketing is mostly a game of funds,
but the authorities are indeed doing real work: cross-chain, technology upgrades, Staking, and destruction.
What truly supports long-term value is ecological implementation and user growth, not speculation.

At 2 AM today (Beijing time), the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and hold a press conference with Powell. The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will press the "pause button" for the second consecutive time, neither raising nor lowering interest rates.
From the current macro perspective:
1️⃣ Oil prices above $100, global economic uncertainty rising
2️⃣ The dual mission is in conflict, political pressure is complex, and every word from Powell could cause fluctuations
3️⃣ Investors need to be aware of related risks
$ETH short position, brothers can I make it to the other side?

The eurozone's February inflation rebounded to 1.9%, leading the market to reprice the European Central Bank's policy path. If interest rate hike expectations heat up, global liquidity will come under pressure. Coupled with the escalating situation in Iran, the risk of rising oil prices increases, and there is a possibility of a second surge in inflation.
The current market structure has already shown differentiation:

$BTC High-level fluctuations
Altcoins weakened
Leverage funding is relatively high

If the macro environment continues to lean hawkish, high Beta assets will be the first to come under pressure.

As for the Bank of Japan testing blockchain settlements, it is a long-term technological benefit, with limited short-term impact on cryptocurrency prices.

Short-term focus on risk control, medium-term still depends on the direction of global liquidity. #宏观不确定性

Beware of the falling market 📉
#Silver #Gold are similar to fakes
US stocks opened low and rose high,
The situation in the Middle East will continue to have an impact for some time
At any moment, it is a time bomb
In this market, just make a rebound 🈳, it's that simple
Wide fluctuations, wait patiently
Pay attention to whether Iran 🇮🇷 has any trump card weapons
$BTC $XAU $XAG

Family, recently BTC has been in a downward trend, but it has only been a small fluctuation and remains within a controllable range.

But here's the key ⚠️ The US military has reached a "peak" in the Middle East: two aircraft carriers (the Lincoln is in position, and the Ford is on its way), over 20 vessels, more than 200 aircraft, F-22/F-35/F-16 all deployed, and air defense systems set up in 20 bases, with Israel on high alert.

Trump is talking about the nuclear agreement while threatening that "if we can't reach an agreement, we'll bomb". The Strait of Hormuz, controlled by Iran, is the lifeblood of global oil prices! Once a spark ignites, it could lead to a world-class black swan event.

For the crypto market, if such geopolitical risks erupt, it is highly likely to cause severe market fluctuations, similar to the early days of COVID-19. Right now, going long, really don’t talk about “patterns”; those who focus on patterns will be passive. The market changes in an instant, preserving capital is the key.

$BTC

2-5 years: The penetration rate of household service robots breaks 30%, the valuation of the housekeeping service track is reconstructed, and the demand for computing power drives the repricing of electricity costs.
​
5-10 years: Bionic nursing robots reach a commercialization turning point, the silver economy and family companionship scenarios form a trillion-level market, and human-machine collaboration reshapes the labor structure.
​
10-20 years: Breakthroughs in AGI and brain-computer interface technology, carbon-based consciousness migrates to silicon-based carriers, and the integration of life sciences and AI gives birth to new species definitions.

Algorithm iteration × Computing explosion = Revaluation of electricity value ⚡️
The paradigm of human wealth distribution will complete a generational leap in this round of technological cycle.

In the Year of the Horse, computing power is productivity, electricity is production materials. May you precisely anchor the track at the intersection of Web3 and AI, navigate the dividends of the era, and achieve a dual leap in assets and cognition.

Tonight we are going to welcome a significant market event.
The nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair has been finalized, with Kevin Walsh leading with an 87% probability.
As a former Federal Reserve Governor and a veteran on Wall Street, his policy inclination is more market-oriented, and he has a more open attitude towards assets like Bitcoin.
If the nomination goes through, it is expected to alleviate the current market concerns about liquidity, and Bitcoin may welcome a new round of valuation recovery.

$我踏马来了 冲啊

PwC officially intensifies its investment in the cryptocurrency sector, a move that carries significant implications.
When the 'Big Four' shift from observation to deep involvement, it signals one important truth:
Cryptocurrency assets are transitioning from 'gray innovation' to a 'institutionalized asset phase'.
Regulation is no longer just about suppression—it's beginning to establish rules, boundaries, and certainty.
Stablecoin legislation, asset tokenization, and traditional institutional participation are not short-term market signals,
but rather the foundation of the financial infrastructure for the next decade taking shape.
The true turning point in the market often isn't the day of a massive surge, but the moment professional institutions decide they must be part of it.

2025 Asset Performance Stage Research Report

First, let's look at traditional financial markets. The Nasdaq and Shanghai Composite Index rose approximately 20% during the year.

Precious metals are the biggest winners of 2025. Spot gold and silver far exceeded the stock market's gains, with spot silver achieving an annual increase of 160.2%, with a market value of $4.5 trillion. Spot gold rose nearly 70% annually, consolidating its position as the world's premier asset with a market value of $31 trillion.

NVIDIA consistently outperformed the market throughout the year, reflecting the consensus that capitalizing on computing power and AI infrastructure has become global. The rise of these assets is a repricing of cash flow expectations and industrial status, essentially aligning with the foundational resources of the AI era, with a market value comparable to the entire silver market.

BTC and ETH did not perform prominently during the year, even lagging behind traditional assets at times, but this does not diminish the numerous opportunities in crypto; there are nearly ten significant chances for a turnaround in 2025, with some achieving all-time highs (ATH), indicating that the crypto asset market is exhibiting characteristics of time-for-space transformation, gradually evolving towards long-term value within the global asset structure.

#BNB's performance has distinct structural characteristics. Compared to BTC and ETH, BNB's gains in the ATH dimension during the year were more elastic due to its established cash flow, buyback mechanism, ecological closure, and user scale. The pricing of such assets is beginning to approach that of mature tech platforms, rather than purely speculative investments, especially considering it is the largest centralized leader. This year, @BNBCHAINZH also has the most opportunities across the entire chain.

Crypto represents a typical adjustment in a bull market continuation. This pullback effectively cleared short-term speculative leverage, laying the groundwork for another surge in 2026. For professional investors, the annual segment yield provided by crypto in 2025 (up to 95%) far exceeds that of the Nasdaq and Shanghai Composite Index, still making it the best wealth springboard among global assets $BNB

While buying the dip on ETH, people are shorting BTC; this is the current divergence.
🔹 Trend Research, under Yi Lihua, has once again purchased 11,520 ETH (approximately 34.93 million USD).
This is not an emotional trade, but a continuous and clear allocation behavior.
Smart money is betting on the long-term value of ETH with real cash.
🔹 At the same time, macro analysts predict:
BTC may drop to 50,000 in 2026, and in extreme cases, to 10,000.
Currently, BTC has pulled back about 30% from its historical high, and the top divergence is starting to appear.
The market is giving a clear signal:
BTC is more like a macro trading target
ETH is being allocated as a "long-term asset"
The greater the divergence, the closer the cycle.
Emotions are arguing, while capital is voting. $BTC $ETH

The unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data for November, which will be announced tonight, have a significant variance for November due to the missing prior value for October. Therefore, providing guidance for a slightly higher-than-expected unemployment rate of 4.4% and slightly lower-than-expected data of 50,000 people might be the best option.

Because overly strong data would reduce the expectation for interest rate cuts in 2026, while overly weak data could trigger panic and recession. In fact, this year, the Federal Reserve has little room for decision-making and has been caught in a bind.

The last major event in the financial market in 2025 is the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike.
It is known that the Bank of Japan will hold a meeting on the 18th and 19th.
The market consensus is to raise the interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%.
For a considerable amount of time, Japanese interest rates have been close to 0.
Many investors and Japanese institutions are engaging in 'yen carry trades'.
In simple terms, it means borrowing yen to invest in U.S. Treasuries or U.S. stocks.

Now that Japan is starting to raise interest rates, it may even begin an interest rate hike cycle,
leading to an increase in borrowing costs for yen, and the profit margin for carry trades disappearing.
Although 0.75% is still a relatively low interest rate level,
it will enhance market expectations for yen appreciation.

With the dual boost of rising interest rates and expectations of yen appreciation,
it will cause liquidity shocks in the market in the short term.
Japan is one of the countries with the highest holdings of U.S. Treasuries and U.S. stocks globally.
If the interest rate only rises to 0.75%, it can be considered already priced in.
The Bank of Japan should not suddenly imply:
'We will raise interest rates again multiple times in 2026.'
This will definitely trigger a sell-off of risk assets and a repatriation of yen.

That would really show no respect to President Trump 😂
On my side, interest rates are being lowered, and on your side, they are being raised = no decrease?
Our revolutionary arm has only been linked for a short time #加密市场观察

$BERA has fallen for 11 consecutive weeks, and it still looks bearish on the weekly chart. This project party is not doing their part, constantly looking for someone to take over, only responsible for selling off, scamming the community. What they lack the least is coins, with annual issuance. 1011 market makers have been liquidated, and there is a large unlock in February, accounting for 59% of the total market value. After that, there will be monthly unlocks. With these sell-offs, the coin price will drop to 0.3, 0.2, 0.1, and the market value will fall to twenty million. As long as there is still trading volume, Binance will not delist it. Believers will ultimately be left with nothing, as pulling up the price requires real money.

Previously, we advised everyone to exit at highs,
Congratulations, we accurately timed the top!
Actually, it's still the same saying:
Every time a rate cut occurs, it is a short-term high point.
When the benefits are fully realized, it becomes a negative.
History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

The balance sheet reduction is not happening that quickly.
Next year's expected rate cut is only once.
Powell's last hawkish remarks were for the next rate cut.
Powell's dovish comments last night were to prevent a rate cut next time.
Powell still needs to support three times in Congress.