The unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data for November, which will be announced tonight, have a significant variance for November due to the missing prior value for October. Therefore, providing guidance for a slightly higher-than-expected unemployment rate of 4.4% and slightly lower-than-expected data of 50,000 people might be the best option.

Because overly strong data would reduce the expectation for interest rate cuts in 2026, while overly weak data could trigger panic and recession. In fact, this year, the Federal Reserve has little room for decision-making and has been caught in a bind.