Lannie Humbertson TtJA

Financial markets in the Gulf region have seen sharp divergences in performance since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, as investors navigate volatile energy prices amid continued market turmoil due to geopolitical tensions. Saudi Arabia and Oman have outperformed other regional indices, with the Muscat Securities Market index rising 9.3% since March 1, the day after the war began on February 28, while the Saudi Tadawul All Share Index climbed 5.8%. In contrast, the Dubai Financial Market General Index plummeted nearly 16% over the same period, while the Qatar Stock Exchange index fell 4% and the Bahrain All Share Index declined 7.2%.

Oil and Safe Havens Reshape Investment Landscape

Damanik Dantes, founder of Dantes Outlook, explained that the Saudi index, which is closely tied to energy markets, has received strong support from the surge in oil prices, while Oman has benefited from investors seeking safe havens. In contrast, the United Arab Emirates was the most affected, with Dantis noting its greater sensitivity to real estate markets and broader geopolitical events.

Speaking to CNBC’s Access Middle East on Thursday, Dantis emphasized that high oil prices remain a net positive for Saudi Arabia, where a small handful of major energy companies dominate the market. He highlighted in particular Saudi Aramco’s ability to export oil not through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital shipping lane that has emerged as a major flashpoint in the conflict, but rather via pipelines extending to the Mediterranean.
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Global markets witnessed sharp shifts this week due to escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, casting a shadow over various economic sectors, from energy to financial markets and cryptocurrencies.

This crisis has become the most influential factor shaping investor decisions and global growth forecasts.

As tensions escalate, concerns about energy supplies have intensified, particularly given the ongoing threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for the transport of approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply.

Macquarie Group warned of a scenario that could push oil prices to $200 per barrel if the conflict continues until mid-year, reflecting the level of anxiety in the markets.

This potential surge in energy prices has already begun to impact economic forecasts, with economists raising their inflation estimates for the United States, predicting that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index will reach 3.1%. Conversely, growth and employment forecasts have been lowered, increasing the likelihood of the US economy entering a recession next year due to the pressures resulting from rising costs.

In the financial markets, US equity funds saw a significant turnaround, with cash inflows rebounding strongly after weeks of decline. This surge was fueled by hopes of easing tensions following political decisions, most notably Donald Trump's extension of the suspension of attacks on Iranian energy facilities. Equity funds attracted over $37 billion in a single week, as investors focused on large-cap companies as a safer haven.
#OilPricesDrop
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European Commissioner for Economic Affairs Valdis Dombrovskis warned of potentially far-reaching consequences for the European economy should tensions related to a potential war with Iran persist. He emphasized that the full extent of the impact on the European economy remains unclear due to the prevailing global uncertainty.

Dombrovskis explained that the future of the European economy depends directly on the duration, scope, and intensity of the conflict. He noted that any further escalation could subject the European economy to simultaneous inflationary and deflationary pressures, potentially leading to a complex stagflation scenario.

He added that current forecasts indicate the European economy could experience a decline in growth rates of up to 0.4 percentage points in 2026, compared to previous estimates of 1.4% in the fall of 2025. This reflects the magnitude of the potential pressures on the European economy in the coming period.

In a related context, the European official explained that inflation within the European economy could rise by approximately one percentage point if the energy crisis persists for a relatively short period. This reinforces concerns about price stability within the European economy and its ability to recover quickly.#OilPricesDrop
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Gold’s recent pullback may continue, as technical and macroeconomic indicators point to an extended consolidation phase rather than a rapid recovery, according to Bank of America Group technical strategists.

The XAU/USD pair rose 2.6% yesterday, and gold futures also climbed, though they are now up less than 4% year-to-date.

Why is gold falling?

Macroeconomic forces are weighing on the precious metal. BCA strategist Peter Berezin pointed to three main drivers behind gold’s recent weakness. First, the US dollar strengthened as interest rate expectations rose.

“From a macroeconomic perspective, a stronger dollar and higher interest rates are generally bad news for gold,” Berezin said.

Second, positioning played a role. Gold—and especially silver—entered March in overbought territory. In such conditions, bouts of risk aversion can trigger sharp declines as leveraged or short-term investors unwind their positions. Berezin noted that similar dynamics have been seen in the past, including in October 2008, when gold fell sharply despite broader market pressures.

Third, official sector demand appears to be shifting. Some central banks are reducing purchases or even selling reserves. Poland is reportedly considering selling gold to finance defense spending, while Turkey has been selling gold to support its currency. There are also signs that some Gulf states may be slowing purchases amid weak export revenues.

Overall, the combination of technical consolidation, tighter financial conditions, and weaker central bank demand suggests that gold may remain under pressure in the coming quarters, even after its strong multi-year run.#XAI #
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The dollar is on track for its strongest monthly gain in nearly a year, driven by investors seeking safe-haven assets as the Middle East conflict escalates and prospects for de-escalation diminish in the near term.

Global markets are on edge after a volatile week, particularly following US President Donald Trump's decision to extend the deadline for targeting Iranian energy facilities, amid conflicting accounts from Washington and Tehran regarding diplomatic progress.

The military developments have further heightened uncertainty, with the US Department of Defense considering sending up to 10,000 additional troops to the region, further diminishing the likelihood of a swift end to the conflict.
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Oil prices rose on Friday as traders braced for the possibility of a war with Iran extending into April, amid continued attacks across the Middle East and near-complete gridlock through the vital Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude climbed to nearly $110 a barrel after erasing earlier losses, while West Texas Intermediate crude approached $96. US President Donald Trump postponed the deadline for targeting Iran's energy infrastructure by 10 days, extending uncertainty over the war's trajectory into next month.

Carl Larry, an oil and gas analyst at Inverios, said the market is beginning to realize there is no certain end to the conflict, adding that the risks remain skewed to the upside as the weekend approaches.
#OilPricesDrop
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At the close of trading today, gold and silver prices fell sharply, while oil prices rose. Meanwhile, the US dollar index also strengthened.

Here's a look at the closing levels of the major commodities:

Gold

At the close of trading today, gold futures fell to $4,390.55 per ounce, a decrease of 4.25%. At the same time, spot gold fell to $4,352.85, a decrease of 3.43%. On the other hand, the US dollar index rose to 100.00, a 0.36% increase against a basket of foreign currencies, primarily the euro and the pound sterling.

Silver

Silver futures closed at $67.22 per ounce, down 7.47%.

Oil

Crude oil prices jumped today at the close of trading, settling at $94.39 per barrel, up 2.20%. Brent crude also surged, closing at $101.54 per barrel, a 2.73% increase.

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Gold prices retreated on Thursday after two consecutive sessions of gains, as investors awaited clearer signals on the progress of efforts to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East—developments that could directly impact global financial markets and monetary policy.

On the political front, US President Donald Trump said Iran was eager to reach an agreement to end nearly four weeks of fighting, contradicting statements by the Iranian foreign minister who confirmed that his country was considering a US proposal but had no intention of entering negotiations to halt the conflict at this time.

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US crude oil inventories surged by 6.926 million barrels, significantly exceeding expectations (a decrease of 1.3 million barrels). Immediately following the release, Brent crude futures for June 2026 delivery fell by approximately 4.2% to $96.02, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for May 2026 delivery dropped by 4.11% to $88.55—an immediate reaction reflecting the market's shock at the substantial surplus in US supply, according to analysis by InvestingPro's WarrenAI platform.

The large inventory increase indicates a supply glut in the US market, putting downward pressure on prices despite geopolitical tensions that typically support upward movement. Cushing, Oklahoma, also saw a rise to 3.421 million barrels, the highest level since August 2024, further confirming a domestic surplus that is weakening any upward momentum.
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Iran has rejected a 15-point peace plan proposed by the United States, Iranian state television reported Wednesday.

The rejection was conveyed to Washington through intermediaries, according to Iranian state television.

An Iranian official, quoted by Iranian media, stated that Iran's defensive operations will continue until the country's conditions are met. The official clarified that the first condition for ending the conflict is a cessation of attacks and assassinations.

Tehran informed the United States through a regional mediator that it will continue to defend itself, the official said. Iran will not allow President Trump to impose a timetable for ending the conflict, the official added.

According to the official, Iran reviewed the proposals and considers them excessive. The official stated that the conflict will end at a time of Iran's choosing and only if its conditions are met.

This article was translated with the help of artificial intelligence and reviewed by an editor. For more details, please refer to our Terms and Conditions.
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Global financial markets are experiencing significant volatility amid US President Donald Trump's erratic statements regarding potential strikes on Iran, which has directly impacted investor behavior and price trends across various asset classes.

Initially, President Trump's escalating rhetoric sparked widespread fears of a military confrontation, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets. This coincided with a sharp rise in oil prices due to concerns about energy supplies, particularly in the sensitive Gulf region. However, this situation was short-lived, as the tone quickly shifted to talk of postponing strikes and the possibility of opening negotiations, leading to a market recovery and a decline in oil prices. Iran's denial of any negotiations, however, reignited the confusion, plunging markets into a spiral of rapid fluctuations driven more by rhetoric than by actual events.
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US data released today showed a strong rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI), with the index rising 3.4% year-on-year, compared to expectations of 2.9%. On a monthly basis for February, it rose 0.7%, exceeding expectations of 0.3%.

Gold prices fell sharply on the news, as US inflation had already begun to rise significantly, even without factoring in the recent surge in energy prices in March due to the war.

These factors are pushing the Federal Reserve to adopt a tighter monetary policy and refrain from cutting interest rates in the foreseeable future, which was the basis for gold's recent rally.

The dollar index rose to 99.48, up 0.16%, following the data release.

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The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its monetary policy meeting next week, according to Morgan Stanley, which anticipates the central bank will remain "in hold and maintain its dovish stance" despite recent inflationary pressures driven by oil prices.

In a note, chief U.S. economist Michael Gabin wrote that the firm still sees the average Fed official expecting one rate cut this year and another next year, keeping the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.0%-3.25%.

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Research firm Bitwise believes Bitcoin could reach $1 million within the next decade if the cryptocurrency manages to capture a significant share of the global store of value market. This estimate was presented in a recent investor note by Matt Hogan, the firm's chief investment officer.

This scenario would represent a massive price surge, roughly 14 times current levels, as Bitcoin is currently trading near $72,000.

Hogan believes the best way to value Bitcoin is to treat it as a digital asset designed to store value, directly competing with gold. From this perspective, its future value can be estimated by calculating the total size of the global store of value market, then determining the potential share Bitcoin could capture, before allocating the resulting value to the total supply, which is currently estimated at only 21 million units.
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Brent crude oil futures (LCOc1) are currently trading at $96.40 on the hourly chart, following a volatile 4.87% rise today. However, the market is tightly confined between $101.50 resistance and $93.00 support, with bullish momentum indicators countered by structural weaknesses. The current trading opportunity is in a "gray zone": risk is high, and the ultimate direction is still uncertain.

Thursday, March 11, 2026, 1:00 PM Riyadh Time

Bulls vs. Bears: Conflicting Signals

Buyers are in control... Partially: The SuperTrend indicator has turned support at $93.47, the MACD is showing increasing positive momentum (line: 1.922, above the signal: 1.792), and the price is above the Ichimoku cloud ($91.33–$96.73)—all factors that increase the likelihood of an upward move.

But the sellers didn't leave: the recent high of $101.53 formed a "lower peak" compared to the peak of $119.5, and the price is below VWAP ($98.14), with trading volumes declining—a sign of weak buyer conviction.
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