Global markets witnessed sharp shifts this week due to escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, casting a shadow over various economic sectors, from energy to financial markets and cryptocurrencies.
This crisis has become the most influential factor shaping investor decisions and global growth forecasts.
As tensions escalate, concerns about energy supplies have intensified, particularly given the ongoing threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for the transport of approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply.
Macquarie Group warned of a scenario that could push oil prices to $200 per barrel if the conflict continues until mid-year, reflecting the level of anxiety in the markets.
This potential surge in energy prices has already begun to impact economic forecasts, with economists raising their inflation estimates for the United States, predicting that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index will reach 3.1%. Conversely, growth and employment forecasts have been lowered, increasing the likelihood of the US economy entering a recession next year due to the pressures resulting from rising costs.
In the financial markets, US equity funds saw a significant turnaround, with cash inflows rebounding strongly after weeks of decline. This surge was fueled by hopes of easing tensions following political decisions, most notably Donald Trump's extension of the suspension of attacks on Iranian energy facilities. Equity funds attracted over $37 billion in a single week, as investors focused on large-cap companies as a safer haven.
