lesric

We are falling well — take a look at how much the main assets have fallen from their highs

▪️ETH (-59.6%)
▪️BTC (-45.5%)
▪️Silver (-44.0%)
▪️MSFT (Microsoft) (-31.6%)
▪️Gold (-20.6%)
▪️NVDA (Nvidia) (-17.2%)
▪️Nasdaq (-10.7%)
▪️S&P 500 (-7.2%)

#BR Bedrock (BR) — this is the protocol for liquid restaking in the ecosystem of decentralized finance (DeFi). In my opinion, there is nothing outstanding about this project, and considering that it recently entered the market, it's better not to think about purchasing it for now.

On the chart, we see multiple pumps, but with such a low cap, this is not surprising; I think we will completely retrace the recent growth in the near future.

If you are fond of this asset, it's better to just observe it for a while, wait for a reversal formation in the market, and liquidity flow into altcoins, and only then think about building a position, but definitely do not touch it from the current levels.

#ZEN The asset has entered the area of its historical loyalty, which we will most likely update in the near future.

Considering the market situation and the correction reserve for BTC, the coin can easily soar to the area of 3$ -4$, so it is definitely not worth considering it for purchase at the current rate, just like most altcoins.

The project in general is decent, but I don't see anything outstanding in it, so it is not the most attractive for investment. But if you still decide to take a position, then not before $3.

#ARIA The asset has skyrocketed in price over the past couple of weeks, but it can also quickly roll back, so don't be deceived by this.

The coin has a low cap, so it's not surprising that it has been so volatile. I would not advise you to trade such assets on futures, as the risks of hitting a stop loss here are huge.

If you are one of those who likes to play with luck, wait for a correction and you might try to catch a movement to short, but there is a high probability that nothing will come of it.

Circle reminded everyone again that USDC is not quite "decentralized"

They froze 16 hot wallets of various businesses (exchanges, casinos, forex platforms). They just took and blocked USDC on them. The reason is some civil lawsuit in the USA, the details are not yet disclosed. The wallets seem to be unrelated to each other, but everyone was hit at once.

In general, classic: Circle complies with US laws, so they can ban addresses at the request of authorities. For some, this is normal, for others — a vivid example of how centralized stablecoins can be treated.

Against this background, the company's shares have already fallen by more than 20%. A pretty significant drop.

Ethereum is preparing for the quantum threat

The Ethereum Foundation has launched the website pq.ethereum - there they have gathered all research on protecting the network from quantum computers.

If quantum machines become a reality, they will be able to break current signatures in Ethereum.

Therefore, the foundation has already allocated $2 million and made this direction a priority.

The plan is spread over several years:

— the first changes will start to be implemented as early as 2026,

— by 2030 they want to completely update the system for quantum security.

At the same time, tests are already underway, and teams are preparing tools for the transition.

Important note on #BTC for the long term

$60k is not the bottom of the bear market.

We still have 6–7 months:
▪️We have not yet tested the realized price (and we always go below it).
▪️We are above the CVDD price ($45k-48k).
▪️We haven't even touched the 200-week moving average yet.

Historically, CVDD has very accurately marked the bottom of each BTC bear cycle.

Also, in each previous BTC bear cycle (2015, 2019, 2022), the price ultimately touched or briefly broke through the 200-week moving average.

Which crypto assets are not considered securities?

After 10 years of disputes, the SEC finally provided a clear position:

— Digital goods: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, etc.
— Digital collections: NFTs and meme coins
— Infrastructure: ENS domains and utility tokens
— Stablecoins: if they meet the requirements of the GENIUS Act

In fact, only one category remains in question -
tokenized versions of traditional securities.

And the key phrase: "The SEC is no longer the regulator that controls everything"

💬 CZ commented in a tweet:

"This is an incredibly important step for the industry. Clarity from the SEC has finally emerged"

Binance, PayPal and Ripple participate in a new Mastercard project to develop blockchain payments

The initiative brings together several elements:

• Liquidity of CEX exchanges (Binance)
• User base of PayPal (~430 million accounts)
• Cross-border settlement technology from Ripple

The goal is to accelerate international payments through blockchain.

Transfers can occur almost instantly with fees below 1%.

🔥 For comparison, traditional transfers via SWIFT usually take 1–5 days and cost about 3–5%.

Good morning and right to the market — there is a funding bias towards shorts

Again, the majority bets on a decline against the backdrop of the conflict in the Middle East and the hang-up on the decision regarding the Clarity Act.

If we look at history, such funding increases the likelihood of a rebound. Because many short sellers stick around, and when their stop losses and liquidations trigger, we move against expectations.

Everyone is talking about "ISO 20022 tokens", but few know what it actually means.

These are projects created for integration into the new global banking standard, where payments, data, and settlements speak the same language.

$XRP for cross-border settlement
$XLM for international money transfers
$HBAR for enterprise security
$ALGO for scalable payments
$IOTA for value transfer in the Internet of Things
$QNT for ensuring interoperability
$ADA for secure smart contracts
$XDC for trade finance

These are not hype coins. These are the rails that institutions can actually use.

When the Federal Reserve's balance turns green — it's time to prepare 🤔

The expansion of the Fed's balance is the most reliable liquidity signal in crypto history. When the printing press switches to green mode, risky assets follow.

Every major BTC bull run has been fueled by liquidity from the Fed. We are not there yet, but when the turning point happens, the movement will be swift. The setup is more important than the entry price.

How do you like this scenario for #BTC?

The second consecutive bearish flag.

Historical data from CryptoQuant (net inflow/outflow on exchanges) during the periods of the largest conflicts of 2022–2025

In brief: the direction of #BTC is determined by liquidity and laws, not geopolitical conflicts.

▪️The invasion of Russia into Ukraine (February 2022), Israel and HAMAS (October 2023), and the escalation between Iran and Israel (June 2025) have caused temporary spikes in volatility.
▪️After each shock, the inflow/outflow indicators returned to normal within three months.
▪️BTC is not tied to the fiscal stability of any specific country. Wars do not change the emission algorithm or the operation of the network.
▪️The growth of ETF and derivatives share allows the market to absorb shocks without prolonged panic selling in the spot market.

What is important?

To monitor macroeconomics and regulation:
▪️Tariffs and the reduction of the dollar mass have a much stronger effect on risk demand than missile strikes.
▪️The implementation of acts such as the Clarity Act determines the pathways for institutional capital movement.

BTC may bounce, but the bearish trend is still in effect

The current sell-off is starting to wane, which could give Bitcoin time to consolidate.

A bounce to the $70-75k range is possible, but it is likely to be rejected.

The problem is that the overall regime remains bearish - liquidity is deteriorating both in spot and futures.

Historically, BTC rarely rises under such conditions.

⬇️ According to cycle estimates:

• end of the bearish trend — Q4 2026
• return of bullish momentum — Q1-Q2 2027

Typical bottom - around $45k. In case of macro deterioration:

• $30k - key support
• $16k - critical level for maintaining the long-term bullish trend.

Familiar Faces

The Milady team has updated the metadata (the file that determines how the NFT will look), after which new images appeared in the collection.

🔥 Against this background:

— Holders have started actively buying the collection
— The Milady floor has risen sharply
— The price has risen above 1.3 ETH

Which NFT would you choose for yourself?

Analysis of XCH
The coin has looked extremely weak and unattractive for purchase lately, so I would not recommend considering it for purchase, at least under the current market conditions.

Throughout the past year, the coin has steadily decreased in price and is currently rapidly moving towards the $2 area.

I assume that we will also break the mark of 2$ and continue to fall further, and we may only see an increase at the moment of decreasing BTC dominance, and I wouldn't expect any significant results here.

MASK

Trump is not going to attack Iran

At least, not now.

❤️ He will wait until Friday evening when the US markets are closed, and the only thing people will be able to sell is crypto

WIF