Historical data from CryptoQuant (net inflow/outflow on exchanges) during the periods of the largest conflicts of 2022–2025

In brief: the direction of #BTC is determined by liquidity and laws, not geopolitical conflicts.

▪️The invasion of Russia into Ukraine (February 2022), Israel and HAMAS (October 2023), and the escalation between Iran and Israel (June 2025) have caused temporary spikes in volatility.

▪️After each shock, the inflow/outflow indicators returned to normal within three months.

▪️BTC is not tied to the fiscal stability of any specific country. Wars do not change the emission algorithm or the operation of the network.

▪️The growth of ETF and derivatives share allows the market to absorb shocks without prolonged panic selling in the spot market.

What is important?

To monitor macroeconomics and regulation:

▪️Tariffs and the reduction of the dollar mass have a much stronger effect on risk demand than missile strikes.

▪️The implementation of acts such as the Clarity Act determines the pathways for institutional capital movement.