安小郭

On Sunday afternoon, the sunshine in Shenzhen is nice, but the market is a bit cold.
I just checked the backend, and BTC has already broken the psychological barrier of $80,000, even dropping to a low of $75,719. This wave of decline has not only broken the short-term moving average support but has also completely broken the defense of many bulls.
Combining the data I just reviewed and this K-line chart, let's discuss a few core points:
Support level moving down: the previous strong support at $84,000 has now become a strong resistance level. Currently, BTC is trying to find a bottom around $78,000. If it cannot recover the $80,000 mark before the U.S. stock market opens tonight, it may need to test the major support at $72,000 in the short term.

On Saturday afternoon, BTC is still bouncing around the $84,000 mark. The aftershocks of last night's 'violent liquidation' are still present, and the market is currently in a very delicate vacuum period.
Today's market summary:
Reduced volume fluctuations: After a significant drop in volume last night, today's rebound has clearly seen reduced volume, which means the bulls haven't caught their breath yet, and the bears are also hesitant to continue selling at this position.
Center of gravity shifting down: BTC's short-term support has moved down from yesterday's $88,000 to around $83,000. As long as it stays at this position long enough to complete the handover of chips, there will be a foundation for an upward counterattack next week.

Last night the rain in Shenzhen had just stopped, and the circle was shaken awake by this wave of 'blood wash'.
BTC broke through the key level of $85,000, once plunging to around $83,240. Looking at the data, over 1 billion dollars were liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, with the vast majority being long positions. This scale of 'de-leveraging' has essentially cleaned out the recently blind chase of hot money.
Some thoughts for today:
The game of risk assets: It's quite interesting, recently gold and silver have also been experiencing significant fluctuations at high levels. Originally, everyone thought BTC was 'digital gold', but last night's trend resembled a 'leveraged enhanced version' of US tech stocks. As the earnings expectations for US tech stocks weakened, coupled with the risk of a government shutdown coming from Washington, risk-averse funds have clearly flowed back into physical gold rather than the crypto market.

Just finished writing a Python script, looked up, and BTC still hasn't stabilized at $90,000. This pullback from the high point has washed out the long positions that chased the highs this afternoon.
Currently, BTC has returned to around $87,600, and ETH has even dropped below $3,000. The market's absorption effect is very strong right now; gold has surged recently, pulling away quite a bit of capital, and the liquidity in the crypto market is a bit tight.
My personal operating idea for tonight:
Focus on 87,500: This is BTC's current key support. If it breaks below here with volume tonight, I will lower the position of the automated script a bit more to guard against a second dip.

I've been in Shenzhen working on Web3 for almost two years, and my biggest realization is that no matter how much the market fluctuates, it can't compare to the 'face-changing' speed of options expiry days.
Today the market is generally risk-averse, BTC is hovering around $88,000, and ETH is still around $2,950. I checked the data, and there are $9.5 billion in options expiring today, with BTC's biggest pain point at $90,000 and ETH at $3,100. Currently, prices are below the pain points, which means the market might have the motivation to move towards these pain points, but we also have to be cautious of the main players' 'door painting' actions before and after expiry.
Let me share my personal order logic (for reference only, not financial advice):