I've been in Shenzhen working on Web3 for almost two years, and my biggest realization is that no matter how much the market fluctuates, it can't compare to the 'face-changing' speed of options expiry days.
Today the market is generally risk-averse, BTC is hovering around $88,000, and ETH is still around $2,950. I checked the data, and there are $9.5 billion in options expiring today, with BTC's biggest pain point at $90,000 and ETH at $3,100. Currently, prices are below the pain points, which means the market might have the motivation to move towards these pain points, but we also have to be cautious of the main players' 'door painting' actions before and after expiry.
Let me share my personal order logic (for reference only, not financial advice):
BTC: Currently in a contraction and oscillation. If it breaks above $89,000 with volume, I will consider a small position to go long, aiming for around $90,500; if it breaks below $87,500, I will just watch, with support around $85,000.
ETH: The trend is weaker than Bitcoin. The launch of Ethereum tokenized gold ETF by Hang Seng is a long-term positive, but in the short term, we are still looking at the support strength around $2,850.
Altcoins: Recently, ARPA and SYN have been performing quite well, but I personally prefer to observe. On the day of large options expiry, the liquidity of altcoins is most likely to be drained.
In summary:
Don't force a top during high volatility before expiry. After writing Python scripts for automated trading for a long time, I prefer to trust data and rhythm. Instead of guessing the maximum pain point, it's better to save bullets and wait for the direction to be determined after expiry before entering the market.
Recently, I am still researching how to integrate 'Zen' into the trading mindset, because in this circle, a stable mindset makes the scripts run better.
What does everyone think today? Are the bulls still holding strong?