MM-喵姐

7.31 Market Trend Analysis

Wrapping up and wrapping up~ Last night's wave really caught everyone off guard. Prices didn't drop much, but most people's positions were cleaned out completely. In the middle of the night, gold took a big plunge, and BTC broke through the small low point of consolidation, only to bounce back with increased volume. The Americans are really playing hard with these news-driven market manipulations. The 117 level just can't be broken, and it's likely that we'll have to see a wave of short selling before we can kick off the next rally once panic reaches its peak.

Now altcoins are starting to crash again, and BTC and ETH haven't really plummeted yet. I guess many people are starting to shout again, "Altcoin season, the bull market is here." But don't forget, Powell was not joking yesterday; he first poured cold water on the interest rate cut expectations for September, and then directly criticized Trump's "beautiful tax plan," implying that fiscal stimulus can't save us from the current inflation.

There are several key time points worth paying attention to:

1. Tomorrow marks the end of the monthly candlestick, and the trend may undergo a reversal.
2. Friday night at 20:30, non-farm payroll data, which usually triggers volatility.
3. Next Monday marks the end of the weekly candlestick; whether this wave will soar depends on it.
#美联储利率决议

1.13 Market Overview:

Another layer of uncertainty has emerged in macro: Powell has been sued, and Wall Street is concerned about the potential impact on the independence of the Federal Reserve. The market has already shown reactions overnight. Currently, it can still hold, but if the situation escalates, the damage to financial markets could be severe.

BTC currently has multiple bullish factors, yet it continues to fluctuate. The key level on the 4H chart is 94,000—only if it holds above this level can there be a chance of a rebound to over 100,000; otherwise, a further decline is likely. Multiple intraday probes have occurred, with the core support zone at 90–906, and short-term resistance at the 93–9.36 range.
USDT has been minted again with an additional 1 billion, indicating real capital is present.
ETH has repeatedly confirmed support around the 3,000–3,100 range, which is the last line of defense in this round. If it stabilizes here, the target remains 3,400–3,600. From the daily chart structure, both time and space have been completed, and the trend has shifted—now it's more about consolidation rather than a reversal.

As for SOL and low-cap tokens on BSC, they can be experimented with!#Strategy增持比特币

Take a look at today's market situation:

The market won't move in a straight trend; instead, it will oscillate and build momentum while gradually rising.
A sudden sharp rally often leads to a quick reversal, so the current market rhythm is quite healthy.

#BTC Focus on support around 906 during the day, with the first resistance level at 926–934;
#ETH Watch for support between 3080–3100 below, with resistance at 3160–3220 above; overall, the structure remains a range-bound uptrend.
$SOL Volume is moderate, but there's a hint of stealth accumulation; 150 is a key level in the downward channel, and only after breaking through will the potential space truly open up—current price is still reasonable.
$DOGE The long-term trend line hasn't fully opened yet, but the daily chart has clearly overshot downward; a trend-level rebound is expected. For short-term trading, pay attention to 0.25 / 0.30 / 0.35; don't expect a major move—this phase is mainly about small-range trading.

In summary: moving slowly and grinding back and forth is much better than a sudden, all-out rally.
#Solana涨势分析

The short-term market correction has basically followed expectations
$BTC / $ETH Continue monitoring the 90500 and 3074 levels today.

Regarding Hexue, the long position at $BREV from yesterday was partially exited early due to potential amplified volatility from Alpha and spot markets.

The broader altcoins have clearly weakened, most likely following the mainstream trend in a correction. Coins like $BCH remain unchanged, frequently experiencing sharp spikes—avoid rushing in.

Current favorable shorting ideas in the current altcoin environment:
$SUI: A large-volume doji on the daily chart yesterday, RSI overbought, with multiple parallel support levels below—stop-loss level is too obvious, likely to be swept. Consider entry around 1.94 on lower timeframes, offering good value.
$DOGE: Classic fake breakout followed by a spike and pullback; consider shorting around 0.151.

The correction is not yet complete—don't rush to re-enter altcoins. Stick with the trend and trade with the momentum for greater stability.
#加密市场反弹

In the past few days, memes have rebounded first, essentially testing the waters for the market.
The market has always had a rhythm: the first wave is emotion, and the second wave looks at BTC to determine the trend. Next, we just wait for the big coin to make a statement, and once it breaks out with volume, the speed of altcoins will only be faster than expected.

In my opinion, memes are the most sensitive barometer of the trend, both as pioneers and as the final chapter.
The start and end of each market cycle can almost always be seen in memes ahead of time:
In April, memes surged first, igniting emotion → followed by a big market in the next few months;
In October, memes went wild → reaching a temporary peak → epic liquidation on 10·11;
Looking back, early 24, and the bull market in 21, the paths are almost identical.

This is not a mere replication, but a pattern: memes test emotions → BTC sets direction → liquidation wraps up, completing a cycle.
#加密市场观察

The macro fluctuations of 2025 have once again pushed "safe-haven assets" to the forefront.

Looking back at the end of the year, the answer is quite clear — gold has won big.
Gold prices soared nearly 65% throughout the year, peaking at $4500, while BTC ended with a -6.3% return, clearly showing that the safe-haven narrative has been contradicted by reality.

This is not luck. Inflation, fiscal games, and government shutdowns have all played a role, with funds prioritizing safety under pressure, pushing risk to the back.
Even with November's inflation retreat and core data below the Federal Reserve's target, which theoretically favors Bitcoin, the funds voted with their feet: Q4: XAUT +13%, BTC -24%.
What’s even more intriguing is that the market seems no longer concerned with “how volatile it is,” but rather with choosing who can provide stable returns.
The strength of XAUT may be sending a signal: 2026 may continue to see a divergence from BTC.
The flow of funds is also quite clear — China is promoting the precious metals market: silver surged 147% this year, and gold mining companies accelerated overseas acquisitions;

On-chain data supports this as well: whales are retreating from ETH losses and shifting to gold; multiple wallets are concentrating on buying XAUT, strategically positioning themselves.

In summary: 2025 is the year of gold, and in 2026, BTC may still have to face the reality of “safe-haven diversion.”
#比特币2026年价格预测

Looking back at the end of 2025, one thing that the market has repeatedly validated can be summed up in one sentence:

When everyone firmly believes in a certain story, be cautious; when everyone despondently leaves the market, it's time to stay.

Emotion is not noise, but data.

When fear reaches its peak, it is often not the end, but the place where opportunities begin to emerge.

12.30 Market Summary:

Last night, gold and silver retraced, and it couldn't hold $BTC at 90,000. The daily line closed not looking very good, and short-term risks are amplifying, likely leading to a fourth support test.
If it breaks below 85,000 on the 4-hour chart, it indicates the end of the oscillation range, and the market will continue to look for support downward; if it doesn't break, it will still be treated as oscillation.

December has basically solidified, and don't expect significant changes. After entering 2026, a rebound will inevitably come; patience is more important than operations.

Looking at $ETH :
2900 has already been tested 7 times without breaking, and the last two 4-hour bearish candles both have long lower shadows, showing strong support below;
The bearish candle bodies are shrinking, and the lows are rising, currently still in the lower half of the oscillation zone. The 15-minute level is continuously in a narrow range, and the direction choice is approaching.

$SUI has broken upwards from a symmetrical triangle, and the structure is biased towards bullish. The pullback is a healthy retracement, and it is currently backtesting the previous breakout point. Holding this level will mean a continuation of the rise, and a successful volume pullback will be even more bullish; once it fails to hold, the market will delay and return to the consolidation area.
#Strategy增持比特币

Gold and silver are soaring, but the cryptocurrency market remains unmoved.
Warriors have no choice of battlefield, and traders have no choice of market; in whatever environment, do whatever is necessary, now one can only watch others having a good time.

But from a structural perspective, BTC should at least see a rebound from this position. Currently, it is hesitant yet rising, which does not meet the conditions for selling according to normal logic, and the upper and lower shadows seem more like self-induced fluctuations to accumulate funds.

BNB has performed relatively strong recently, but platform coin trends usually appear during the vacuum period of July–August topics; to complete the structure, it will need more time to form a double top.

ETH still has the possibility of returning to 3118–3150 in the short term.

Structurally, it is running on the right side of a downward trend line, overall still leaning bullish, currently forming a rectangular consolidation. The rectangle is likely to continue the original trend; if it was previously rising, then the probability of breaking upwards later is higher.

Within the range, the trading volume is relatively low, and the price is operating in the upper part of the fluctuation zone, with bulls still in control.

Feeling bored, I listened to the speech of the Bank of Japan's governor after the interest rate hike.
Here is a simplified version of the core information for everyone: 👇

1️⃣ The interest rate hike is not tightening, just an attempt to move towards "normal"
This interest rate hike does not signify a shift towards reducing liquidity, nor does it mark the beginning of an aggressive cycle; it is essentially a slight correction from an extremely accommodative stance.

2️⃣ Whether to raise rates again depends on data, not on a fixed path
There is no preset rhythm for rate hikes, and it does not follow the U.S. Federal Reserve's approach; everything depends on inflation, wages, and whether the economy can stabilize.

3️⃣ Whether wages can continue to rise is the key among keys
Focusing only on prices is not useful; what is more important is whether companies can continuously raise wages to form a positive cycle, otherwise it will not easily tighten again.

4️⃣ They do not want to scare the market and will closely monitor volatility
The reactions of Japanese bonds, exchange rates, and the overall financial market will be closely monitored, and the Bank of Japan's stance remains cautious.

Summary: This interest rate hike feels more like testing the waters, not declaring war—slow pace, soft tone, and leaving ample room for maneuvering.
#日本加息影响

Current market situation:

After two weeks of rising before the interest rate cut, there has been a decline for a while afterward, and this has been the pattern in previous instances. So far, there are no exceptions this time.

Looking back, the pullback after the interest rate cut, where "good news is fully priced in," usually lasts about 10 days. Currently, there are about 3–5 days left. Moreover, the pullback often erases a large portion of the gains made before the interest rate cut.
This round of BTC started from around 81,000, and it’s possible to retest the range of 81,000–83,000 in the coming week.
Short-term variables include the CPI inflation data on Thursday, which may determine the rise and fall rhythm in the next few days.
If a second bottom is reached, it may actually be easier to see a decent rebound, placing rebound orders near the previous lows has a good chance of success.

Looking ahead, January without an interest rate cut is the next clear milestone:
It’s likely to decline in the two weeks before the meeting and then rebound after the meeting when the negative news is fully priced in, which will provide a relatively comfortable operational window.

By the way, about ETH:
The 4-hour structure is bearish, with lower highs and lows, and three segments of declines getting increasingly severe. It is currently still consolidating, and the bearish pullback is on the rise.

In the short term, focus on the range of 2876–3000 USD, first consolidating, and don’t rush to conclusions.
#美国非农数据超预期

Many people are entangled in two questions:

1️⃣ Is U.S. policy more important, or is BTC itself falling?
In the short term, policy is the fuse; but what really determines the trend is BTC's own structure.
The current market is not 'damaged by policy', but rather it has been in a prolonged high-level fluctuation and lacks the motivation to continue climbing. Any negative news will be amplified. In other words: it's time for a correction, and policy is just a facilitator.

2️⃣ Will Japan's interest rate hike definitely crash the cryptocurrency market?
It will not simply replicate a 'straight-line plunge'.
The core impact of Japan's interest rate hike is to tighten arbitrage funds, which is bearish for risk assets, but this matter has already been repeatedly discussed in the market, and the expectations themselves have already been partially priced in.
The real destructive power is not at the 'moment of the rate hike', but in the gradual return of funds and the tightening of liquidity, leading to more fluctuations and repeated pulls rather than a one-step waterfall.

Summary:

👉 BTC is in its own adjustment cycle; policy is just an amplifier;

👉 The yen's interest rate hike is bearish but more like 'chronic consumption', not a quick kill.
#美联储降息

This is not a crash, it's a repositioning.

It's not an exit, it's a handover.

It's not the end, it's the prelude to the next round.

Patiently hold on to the big cake,

The wind is already on the way.