The macro fluctuations of 2025 have once again pushed "safe-haven assets" to the forefront.
Looking back at the end of the year, the answer is quite clear — gold has won big.
Gold prices soared nearly 65% throughout the year, peaking at $4500, while BTC ended with a -6.3% return, clearly showing that the safe-haven narrative has been contradicted by reality.
This is not luck. Inflation, fiscal games, and government shutdowns have all played a role, with funds prioritizing safety under pressure, pushing risk to the back.
Even with November's inflation retreat and core data below the Federal Reserve's target, which theoretically favors Bitcoin, the funds voted with their feet: Q4: XAUT +13%, BTC -24%.
What’s even more intriguing is that the market seems no longer concerned with “how volatile it is,” but rather with choosing who can provide stable returns.
The strength of XAUT may be sending a signal: 2026 may continue to see a divergence from BTC.
The flow of funds is also quite clear — China is promoting the precious metals market: silver surged 147% this year, and gold mining companies accelerated overseas acquisitions;
On-chain data supports this as well: whales are retreating from ETH losses and shifting to gold; multiple wallets are concentrating on buying XAUT, strategically positioning themselves.
In summary: 2025 is the year of gold, and in 2026, BTC may still have to face the reality of “safe-haven diversion.”